It used to be pretty easy to predict the Premier League table before the season even started. You could just say "Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham -- in some order," and you'd usually be right.
In five seasons from 2009-10 through 2018-19, those six were the top six, and so they became known as the Big Six. In two other seasons, they all finished top seven, and in one other it was top eight. The only real outlier was the outlier, when Chelsea plummeted to 10th a year after winning the league and Leicester City won the whole thing. This was also the only season during this stretch when a club from outside the Big Six finished inside the top four.
As if in response to someone showing the world that the Premier League might actually be an open competition that anyone could win, the Big Six followed up 2015-16 by cordoning off the top six in three consecutive seasons. During those years, the average point gap between sixth and seventh was more than eight points. Over those three seasons, only four total non-Big Six teams finished a 38-game campaign with a positive goal differential.
What was happening? Per Deloitte's accounting, Arsenal brought in €445.2 million of revenue during the 2018-19 season. West Ham United, meanwhile, made €216.4m. Those were the sixth- and seventh-richest teams in the Premier League, and one earned more than twice as much money as the other. Revenue tends to be destiny in European soccer -- or at least it used to be.
Since 2018-19, the Big Six has finished as the top six only one time. An outsider has broken into the top four in each of the previous two seasons. And as of now, Nottingham Forest are tied with second-place Arsenal on points, Newcastle United are tied with fourth-place Manchester City on points and Bournemouth are only one point back of both of them. Oh, and Manchester United are 13th, and Tottenham are 15th.
So, is the "Big Six" officially dead? And if so, what killed it?