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          Champions League matchday 5: Title odds, best XI, top games

          • Bill ConnellyNov 28, 2024, 11:33 AM ET
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              Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
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          In some ways, as one would expect, the 2024-25 Champions League is righting itself.

          Early upstarts like Sparta Prague and VfB Stuttgart continued to slide this week in Matchday 5. Teams with major recent Champions League success, like Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid, continued their rebounds from slow starts. Liverpool (2019 champion), Inter Milan (2023 runner-up), Barcelona (many-times champion) and Borussia Dortmund (2023 runner-up) are the top four teams in the table. Things are starting to make sense.

          Then again, Manchester City blew a three-goal lead and fell to 17th place. Real Madrid lost for the third time in four Champions League games and are currently in 24th place, right behind Feyenoord and Club Brugge ... and, incredibly, one spot ahead of Paris Saint-Germain. RB Leipzig, third in the Bundesliga, is 34th out of 36 in this competition.

          With three matches to go, this competition is only making so much sense. And in these parts, we like nonsense. Let's once again go country by country, looking at who's doing well, who's flagging and who's likely only got three more matches left in this year's competition.

          The categories below:

          ‐ Title hopefuls: teams with at least a 3% chance of winning the whole thing, per ESPN BET
          ‐ Fighting for the top eight: teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top eight of the league phase, per Opta
          ‐ Just hoping to advance: teams with at least a 20% chance of finishing in the top 24, but a less than 20% chance of finishing in the top eight, per Opta
          ‐ Playing out the string: teams with an under 20% chance of finishing in the top 24

          ENGLAND

          In the table:

          1. Liverpool (15 points, +11 GD)
          7. Arsenal (10 points, +6 GD)
          9. Aston Villa (10 points, +5 GD)
          17. Manchester City (eight points, +6 GD)

          - Title hopefuls: Liverpool 14.9% (up 3.3% from the last matchday), Manchester City 13.7% (down 4.4%), Arsenal 11.0% (up 2.8%)

          When the odds start out heavily in your favor, it takes a while for that to change. But we're finally seeing some real-life consequences for Manchester City's dire form. Pep Guardiola's squad suffered five consecutive losses in all competitions heading into Tuesday's home match with Feyenoord, and then they managed to do something even more shocking: turn a 3-0 lead into a 3-3 draw.

          City looked like a young upstart club on Tuesday, surging to a comfortable lead, then losing their composure as Feyenoord pounced on a series of mistakes. Anis Hadj Moussa turned a dreadful Josko Gvardiol back-pass into a sudden goal at a tight angle to make it 3-1. Seven minutes later, Gvardiol played another ball into a cluster of Feyenoord defenders, and the resulting turnover produced a mistake from goalkeeper Ederson and a tap-in for Santiago Giménez. Then a simple lob from Moussa freed Igor Paixao to get past Nathan Aké, Rico Lewis and eventually Ederson; Paixao's high cross found Dávid Hancko's head and tied the game.

          There's no question that City have been wrecked by injury this year, but what was perhaps most jarring about this collapse was that it wasn't, say, reserves like 22-year-old James McAtee or 19-year-old Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, two of Guardiola's three subs, making the crippling errors. It was instead players like Gvardiol, City's €90 million 2023 addition, or longtime stalwarts Ederson and Aké. This team genuinely seems to have forgotten how to close games and has allowed 17 goals in this six-match winless string. And it's taking a visible toll on Guardiola.

          After all this, City are finally no longer the betting favorite, per ESPN BET. As with the Premier League race, they have bestowed that label on Liverpool, who they play on Sunday. With a loss at Anfield, they could be 11 points back and almost out of the title race. It will take a while longer to knock them all the way out of this one.

          - Fighting for the top eight: Liverpool 98% for top eight, Arsenal 70%

          While City continued to falter, England's other two top clubs in the competition made statements. First, on Tuesday, Arsenal pummeled the Sporting CP team that had pummeled City in Matchday 4. The Gunners have averaged 2.33 points per game in all competitions this season when Martin Ødegaard starts and 1.9 when he doesn't; he started in Lisbon, and Arsenal's attack was almost machine-like, scoring in the seventh, 22nd, 45th+1, 65th and 82nd minutes.

          In 78 minutes, Ødegaard provided no goals or assists, but he was second on the team in touches (83), chances created (two), progressive carries (seven) and 1v1 attempts (five), and he was first in progressive passes (10). He did most of his damage in the first half and perfectly sewed together an attack that ran on the right through Jurriën Timber, Kai Havertz, Thomas Partey, Bukayo Saka and himself.

          (Source: TruMedia)

          Timber played one of his best games in an Arsenal shirt, Ødegaard controlled the tempo, and Saka was Saka. It was a pretty devastating combination.

          On Wednesday at Anfield, Liverpool made a different kind of statement. They didn't score five goals on Real Madrid by any means, but in their 2-0 win they were superior in every possible way.

          Shot attempts: Liverpool 17, Real Madrid 8
          Shots in the box: Liverpool 13, Real Madrid 2
          xG: Liverpool 2.7, Real Madrid 1.2

          Liverpool attempted more shots, more good shots, drew twice as many high turnovers, and in Real Madrid's best chance to get back into the match, Caoimhín Kelleher saved a Kylian Mbappé penalty with relative ease. And perhaps the most jarring thing about all this is it didn't seem jarring at all. Liverpool were clearly the team expecting to win. Not only could they take down both of the perceived best clubs on the planet this week -- Real Madrid on Wednesday, Manchester City on Sunday -- but we also expect them to.

          - Just hoping to advance: Aston Villa 18% for top eight and 100% to advance, Manchester City 16% for top eight and 97% to advance

          A nil-nil draw is always a bit of a surprise at Villa Park -- I would have guessed 2-2 before 0-0 -- but it moved Villa to 10 points, keeping their top-eight hopes alive and all but assuring them a spot in the round of 24.

          Playing out the string: none

          SPAIN

          In the table:

          3. Barcelona (12 points, +13 GD)
          15. Atlético Madrid (nine points, +2 GD)
          24. Real Madrid (six points, +0 GD)
          30. Girona (three points, -5 GD)

          - Title hopefuls: Barcelona 12.2% (down 0.3%), Real Madrid 10.3% (down 3.3%)

          While Barcelona rudely burst Brest's bubble a bit with an easy 3-0 home win, Real Madrid, like Manchester City, continued its relative slide. The loss to Liverpool was their third in four games, and even in their lone win in this span, at home against Borussia Dortmund, they fell behind 2-0 before turning on the jets.

          Their problem is pretty clear: While they're creating as many good chances as anyone in attack, they're handing equally great chances to opponents. They've attempted 21 shots worth at least 0.2 xG in this competition thus far, the most in the competition, but opponents have also attempted 16, fifth-most.

          (Source: TruMedia)

          It's like signing Mbappé transported them straight back to the Galácticos era, where beauty in attack was undone by a total lack of focus in defense.

          Both Liverpool and Real Madrid missed penalties on Wednesday, but Liverpool created five other shots worth at least 0.2 xG, scored on one and scored on a lovely 12-meter strike from Alexis Mac Allister as well. Along with Mbappe's poor penalty, Brahim Díaz's late attempt from five-meters was the Blancos' only other decent opportunity.

          - Fighting for the top eight: Barcelona 76% for top eight, Atlético Madrid 36%

          Atlético Madrid capped a perfect November -- six matches in all competitions, six wins -- with a nearly perfect performance in Prague. Against a Sparta team that began the competition in strong dark-horse form, Diego Simeone's squad wrecked shop, attempting 24 shots (3.1 xG), allowing just four (0.2) and slowly steamrolling the home team, 6-0.

          (Source: TruMedia)

          The damage was done by a delightful mix of new and old. Julián Álvarez (acquired from Manchester City this summer) scored twice and led the team with four chances created, while 21-year-old midfielder Giuliano Simeone, son of Diego, had an assist and led the team in expected assists from completed passes. Meanwhile, good old Marcos Llorente, 29, vacuumed up anything dangerous, easily leading the team with 13 defensive interventions, and Ángel Correa, 29, came off the bench to score twice in 11 minutes.

          Atlético have completely changed their trajectory this month. At the end of October they had just a 68% chance of advancing and a 4% chance of landing a top-eight spot and a bye. Now they're at nearly 100% and 36%, respectively. They host Slovan Bratislava in Matchday 6, too, which should boost their standing even further.

          - Just hoping to advance: Real Madrid 2% for top eight and 93% to advance

          Even though they're 24th, Real Madrid are still in excellent shape to advance, and as with Manchester City, if they find their form by the spring, they could still make a huge run and forget these struggles ever happened. But they play a torrid Atalanta in Matchday 6, so things could get worse before they get better.

          - Playing out the string: Girona 5% to advance

          With a 1-0 loss to Sturm Graz on Wednesday, Girona all but sealed its fate here.

          GERMANY

          In the table:

          4. Borussia Dortmund (12 points, +10 GD)
          6. Bayer Leverkusen (10 points, +6 GD)
          13. Bayern Munich (nine points, +5 GD)
          27. Stuttgart (four points, -7 GD) 34.
          RB Leipzig (zero points, -6 GD).

          - Title hopefuls: Bayern Munich 10.3% (up 2.1%), Bayer Leverkusen 3.9% (up 1.3%)

          Like Atlético, Bayern created a new trajectory for themselves in November. Since a 4-1 loss to Barcelona left them drifting in the middle of the Champions League table, they've won seven matches in all competitions by a combined 18-0. They couldn't find a second goal to completely put away PSG in Tuesday's 1-0 win, and they benefited from a shaky second yellow given to Ousmane Dembélé in the 56th minute, but they allowed PSG to attempt 11 shots worth just 0.8 xG on the evening and were never in serious danger.

          Bayern rediscovered their defensive control in November. After allowing a far-too-high 0.17 xG per shot for the season, they have allowed just 0.11, a nearly 40% drop, during the winning streak. It has allowed them to open up a six-point lead in Bundesliga play, and it's once again put them in the upper tier of Champions League contenders.

          - Fighting for the top eight: Borussia Dortmund 75% for top eight, Bayern Munich 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 40%

          Approximately five days ago, Bayer Leverkusen were in a freefall, having gone winless in five of six matches in all competitions (including a 4-0 throttling at Liverpool) and having fallen behind Heidenheim, 2-0, after 21 minutes at home.

          In the 159 or so minutes that followed, they outscored Heidenheim and Salzburg by a combined 10-0. For a sport with a never-ending season, your fortunes sure can change quickly sometimes.

          Meanwhile, as has been the case for basically the entire 2024 calendar year, Borussia Dortmund continue to look like a completely different team in the Champions League. Their road form in Bundesliga play has been dreadful, but they cruised 3-0 at Dinamo Zagreb to maintain their top-four spot in the table.

          - Just hoping to advance: Stuttgart 0% for top eight and 58% to advance

          There's bad, and there's "lose 5-1 to a team that had lost its first four matches in the competition" bad. Poor defense handed Stuttgart a 2-1 halftime deficit against Red Star Belgrade, and they got repeatedly carved open in transition during a meek second-half comeback attempt. After earning a semi-promising four points in their first three matches, they've lost their last two by a combined 7-1.

          - Playing out the string: RB Leipzig 3% to advance

          Bayern turned its season from good to great in November; RB Leipzig went the opposite direction, earning one point in five matches in all competitions. On Tuesday, just three days after their defense collapsed in a 4-3 loss to Hoffenheim, their attack no-showed in Milan. They attempted seven shots worth just 0.15 xG in a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan, and they're now one of three teams -- and the only one from Europe's Big Five leagues -- with zero points through five Champions League matchdays.

          ITALY

          In the table:

          2. Inter Milan (13 points, +7 GD)
          5. Atalanta (11 points, +10 GD)
          16. AC Milan (nine points, +2 GD)
          19. Juventus (eight points, +2 GD)
          33. Bologna (one point, -6 GD)

          - Title hopefuls: Inter Milan 5.5% (up 1.2%)

          Inter have been almost unnoticeable in this competition, and I mean that in the best possible way. They've won three straight games in the competition by 1-0 margins. They don't allow counterattacks, they don't allow easy buildups, they don't allow high-quality shots, they block 33% of the shots they allow (fifth-most in the competition), and they're very immediate in attack, turning the chances they get into something of high value. (They also get drawn offside a decent amount.) Watching Manchester City at the moment, you see an impossibly complicated game that City just can't figure out. Watching Inter, you see something extremely simple and sustainable.

          - Fighting for the top eight: Inter Milan 91% for top eight, Atalanta 58%, AC Milan 34%

          We're used to good things from Atalanta -- they have, after all, lost just one of their last 18 UEFA matches going back to last year's Europa League title run -- but Gian Piero Gasperini's squad might be in its best form in club history at the moment. They've taken 29 points from their last 11 matches in all competitions, outscoring opponents 34-5. Their 6-1 away win against Young Boys on Tuesday was almost unfair. Tied at 1-1 early on, they got goals in the 28th, 32nd and 39th minutes to turn this into an absolute laugher.

          - Just hoping to advance: Juventus 9% for top eight and 95% to advance

          Juve continue to do just enough. Their xG differential in this competition (-2.8) ranks 26th overall, but after beating RB Leipzig with a minus-2.2 differential in October, they took a point from Villa with a minus-0.8 differential on Wednesday. They have blocked 36% of opponents' shots (first), and opponents seem to rush the clean shots they get. Obviously Juve were a bit fortunate that Villa's late game-winner was disallowed by VAR, but you take a point however you're given it.

          - Playing out the string: Bologna 2% to advance

          As with Girona and Stuttgart, Bologna, Italy's 2023-24 upstart story, have not found much footing here. Their 2-1 home loss to Lille on Wednesday just about ended any hope of advancement.

          FRANCE

          In the current table:

          8. Monaco (10 points, +5 GD)
          11. Brest (10 points, +3 GD)
          12. Lille (10 points, +2 GD)
          25. PSG (four points, -3 GD)

          - Title hopefuls: none

          - Fighting for the top eight: Lille 27% for top eight

          While 10-man Monaco couldn't hold onto a 2-1 lead over Benfica and fell at home, and Brest got bopped by Barcelona, Lille continued its quest for a top-eight spot by winning away at Bologna. All three clubs have topped the nine points it will likely take to advance in the competition, but Lille's road for a bye to the round of 16 looks clearest.

          - Just hoping to advance: Monaco 15% for top eight and 100% to advance, Brest 14% and 99%, PSG 0% and 58%

          Here are some words you've never been able to say before: "25th-place Paris Saint-Germain." We're used to PSG rolling through Ligue 1 play only lightly scathed before eventually finding their limits in the Champions League. But we're also used to them at least doing some damage in the Champions League first. They've pulled just one point from their last four Champions League matches.

          Bradley Barcola leads Ligue 1 with 10 goals, and Ousmane Dembélé has five goals with four assists. In the Champions League they've combined for 27 shots (21 from Dembélé), 2.5 xG and zero goals. They've created 17 chances, which have turned into a single assist.

          I really shouldn't limit it to those two, however: Luis Enrique's entire team has scored just two goals in five Champions League matches. I appreciate that the club seems to be taking a longer view in terms of squad-building, going young in a lot of positions in an attempt to build something more sustainably brilliant down the line. And when they look good, they look great. But looking great in the Champions League appears to be too much to ask at the moment. Their current attacking personnel just can't seem to crack higher-level defenses and create good chances.

          (Source: TruMedia)

          PSG rank 10th out of 36 in shots per possession but 31st in xG per shot. That basically tells the tale. They need something easy at some point, and it's not coming. They should rebound with a trip to Salzburg in Matchday 6, though a potentially desperate Manchester City will visit in January.

          - Playing out the string: none

          EVERYONE ELSE

          In the table:

          10. Sporting CP (10 points, +3 GD)
          14. Benfica (nine points, +3 GD)
          18. PSV Eindhoven (eight points, +3 GD)
          20. Celtic (eight points, +0 GD)
          21. Dinamo Zagreb (seven points, -5 GD)
          22. Feyenoord (seven points, -3 GD)
          23. Club Brugge (seven points, -3 GD)
          26. Shakhtar Donetsk (four points, -4 GD)
          28. Sparta Prague (four points, -4 GD)
          29. Sturm Graz (three points, -4 GD)
          31. Red Star Belgrade (three points, -8 GD)
          32. RB Salzburg (three points, -12 GD)
          35. Slovan Bratislava (zero points, -14 GD)
          36. Young Boys (zero points, -15 GD)

          - Title hopefuls: none

          - Fighting for the top eight: Sporting CP 44% for top eight

          Unlike Inter, Sporting couldn't complete the double and take points off of both City and Arsenal. They attacked well and deserved more than one goal in the 5-1 loss to Arsenal -- Gunners goalkeeper David Raya was incredible in limiting them to that -- but their defense also got torn apart in their first Champions League match after replacing Manchester United-bound manager Ruben Amorim with João Pereira. Still, they finish the competition with matches against Club Brugge, RB Leipzig and Bologna. Pulling six points from those three might be enough for a top-eight finish.

          - Just hoping to advance: Celtic 8% for top eight and 97% to advance, PSV Eindhoven 8% and 94%, Celtic 7% and 95%, Feyenoord 2% and 80%, Dinamo Zagreb 0.3% and 53%, Club Brugge 0.3% and 48%

          It was incredible how much more composed Feyenoord was than Manchester City in the closing stages of their 3-3 draw; it earned them a vital point after their dire Matchday 4 home loss to Salzburg. It kept them on the right side of the Top 24 line, and they should be able to take three points from Sparta Prague at home in Matchday 6.

          Incredibly, another Dutch team also turned its fortunes around with three late goals. We'll get to this more below, but PSV was just about resigned to a 2-0 defeat against Shakhtar but were saved by goals from Malik Tillman (two) and Ricardo Pepi (one) to take all three points and move to 18th in the table.

          Celtic, meanwhile, saved a point by coming back to draw with Club Brugge, 1-1, despite a terrible communication error and an own goal from Cameron Carter-Vickers.

          I may be a biased American, but I'm not putting 100% of that on Carter-Vickers -- I'm giving 50% to Kasper Schmeichel as well. Regardless, they've reached eight points and probably only need a ninth to advance. Their next two matches are against Dinamo Zagreb and Young Boys.

          - Playing out the string: Shakhtar Donetsk 9% to advance, Red Star Belgrade 7%, Sparta Prague 4%, Sturm Graz 3%, RB Salzburg 2%, Young Boys 0.1%, Slovan Bratislava 0%

          Shakhtar could have moved to seven points (and dropped Real Madrid out of the top 24) by closing out the win over PSV. Alas.

          THE BEST XI OF MATCHDAY 5

          class=Goalkeeper: David Raya, Arsenal

          Arsenal's attack was outstanding enough that the Gunners weren't going to lose no matter what. But it might have been a dicier game if Raya hadn't made eight saves on nine shots on goal. Sporting put shots on goal worth 2.9 xG (post-shot) but scored only once.

          Backup: Caoimhín Kelleher, Liverpool

          class=Right-back: Marcos Llorente, Atlético Madrid

          He won five of six duels, he made eight ball recoveries (nearly the most of any right back), his 100 touches were the most on the team, and he assisted two second-half goals to turn Atletico's comfortable win into a blowout.

          Backup: Jurrien Timber, Arsenal

          class=class=Center-backs: Kim Min-Jae, Bayern Munich; Odilon Kossounou, Atalanta

          Kim making 16 defensive interventions (sixth-most of any central defenders) for a team that completely limited PSG: good. Tossing in the game-winning goal on a corner: even better.

          It probably isn't a coincidence that Atalanta's defense improved in November, just as Kossounou, a loanee from Bayer Leverkusen, assumed a larger role in the lineup. He did his job on Tuesday, with 11 defensive interventions and a solid 50% duel success rate. But he's here because he did that while also assisting two goals.

          Backups: David Hancko, Feyenoord; Iñigo Martínez, Barcelona

          class=Left-back: Nuno Mendes, PSG

          Borussia Dortmund's Ramy Bensebaini did the best work of any left back in attack, but Mendes did all he could to force the issue against Bayern, making the most defensive interventions as anyone in Matchday 5 (25), winning five of nine 1v1s and leading his team in progressive carries (12) and progressive passes (five).

          Backup: Ramy Bensebaini, Borussia Dortmund

          class=class=class= Midfielders: Timi Elsnik, Red Star; Pedri, Barcelona; Malik Tillman, PSV Eindhoven

          That Red Star took a 2-1 lead on Stuttgart wasn't surprising -- Stuttgart's been vulnerable in defense all season. What was surprising was that, once behind, they couldn't manage even the slightest comeback attempt. Red Star just kept winning the ball back, and when they did, Elsnik was probably doing something dangerous in transition. He had two assists, and the home team's lead just kept getting bigger.

          Pedri made 20 progressive passes (most of any non-defender). He drew five fouls (most of any position). He was extremely Pedri, and Barcelona rolled once again.

          PSV was down 2-0 in the 87th minute and won 3-2. They can thank Tillman for a good portion of that.

          Backup: Jamal Musiala, Bayern Munich; Ngai Ayel Mukau, Lille; Alexis Mac Allister, Liverpool

          class=Right winger: Charles De Ketelaere, Atalanta

          The best player of Matchday 5. He was one of 10 players to score two goals, and he was the only player with three assists. Atalanta is playing unreal ball right now, and De Ketelaere was their unreal leader on Tuesday.

          Backup: Ángel Di María, Benfica

          class=Left winger: Jamie Gittens, Borussia Dortmund

          Sixteen progressive carries (most of any left winger) and another stunning strike. He's got four goals in 306 Champions League minutes. Goodness.

          Backup: Igo Paixao, Feyenoord

          class=Center-forward: Florian Wirtz, Bayer Leverkusen

          Playing in basically a two-forward front with Patrik Schick, Wirtz put Leverkusen ahead with an early penalty, put them up 3-0 with a lovely strike in the 30th minute, then assisted Aleix García's late goal to put away a 5-0 win.

          Backup: Erling Haaland, Manchester City