*Taps microphone*
Hey, is this thing on? By this thing, of course I mean the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs.
After a two-week pause for the November international window, the MLS postseason is back up and running, with the conference semifinal round set to kick off on Saturday. Eight teams are still vying for MLS Cup, and thanks to some historic upsets in the first round -- including the shock exit of Lionel Messi and Inter Miami -- they're not the teams you might think.
It's been an unpredictable start to the playoffs, and the chance for upsets remains high. With single-elimination clashes the rest of the way, each remaining club is only three wins away from lifting a piece of silverware.
So, how are these playoffs going to finish? And who will add a trophy to their cabinet? Let's peer into the stats-filled MLS crystal ball to answer those questions. That ball is murky, but hey, it's ours.
Western Conference semifinal: LAFC vs. Seattle Sounders
Sure, LAFC had a tepid showing against the Vancouver Whitecaps in Round 1, where they technically lost the series on the aggregate score (a fact Vancouver manager Vanni Sartini was quick to point out). But an aggregate score doesn't matter in the MLS postseason these days, where it's all about sweet, sweet wins -- LAFC won two in the three-game series against Vancouver.
Indeed, LAFC have been picking up key wins, including against their next opponent, the Seattle Sounders. LAFC haven't lost in any of their past 10 games against the Sounders.
This year alone, they beat Brian Schmetzer's team four times across three competitions: in the regular season, in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals, and in the U.S. Open semifinals. Last year, they took down Seattle in the exact same stage of the playoffs where they'll meet this weekend: in the Western Conference semifinals. You have to go all the way back to May 2021 to find the last Sounders win in this series.
Things aren't hopeless for the Sounders, though, the team with the best defense based on goals allowed and expected goals allowed in the regular season, according to FBref. If Seattle can keep their lines tight and force Dénis Bouanga & Co. to break down a low block, they'll have a real chance.
Still, that's the game plan for virtually everybody against LAFC, and Steve Cherundolo's team still earned the top seed out West, ended the regular season with the league's best xG differential, or expected goals, according to FBref, and won a playoff series.
History -- and overall team quality -- points to an LAFC win.
Predicted winner: LAFC
Western Conference semifinal: LA Galaxy vs. Minnesota United
What happens when an unstoppable force meets, uh, another unstoppable force? We're going to find out in this matchup on Sunday.
The LA Galaxy led MLS in xG in the regular season, as per FBref. They had the largest goal difference and xG difference in Round 1 of the playoffs, even while forgoing the third game of the best-of-three series against the Rapids because they got out their brooms and swept Colorado.
Minnesota United, for their part, led MLS in American Soccer Analysis' expected points model between summer transfer deadline day and the end of Decision Day, not least because of some smart roster reinforcements. As the sixth seed out West, the Loons upset Real Salt Lake in Round 1. But it didn't look much like an upset based on the balance of play.
So again I ask: What happens when two red-hot teams meet? Well, the tie goes to the home team, especially when that home team has the most dominant on-ball force left in the playoffs.
Home teams have tended to win nearly 50% of MLS games in recent years, compared to away teams whose win rate has covered closer to 25%. Toss in Riqui Puig, who put up four goals and an assist in two games against Colorado and is angry that he's had to sit around for so long before destroying another defense, and you've got a Galaxy-flavored stew cooking.
Predicted winner: LA Galaxy
Eastern Conference semifinal: New York City FC vs. New York Red Bulls
U.S. men's national team manager Mauricio Pochettino has chosen to deny the existence of goalkeeper Matt Freese but opposing attackers have had no choice but to acknowledge the star New York City FC shot-stopper. According to American Soccer Analysis, no goalkeeper saved more goals above expected in Round 1 than the 26-year-old American did with his +3.33 against FC Cincinnati. It was Freese's heroics in goal, both in open play and in the series-deciding penalty shootout, that propelled New York City into a matchup with their biggest rivals.
On the other side of this matchup, the New York Red Bulls pulled off an upset of their own in the first round by beating 2023 MLS Cup winners Columbus Crew. Sandro Schwarz's team took the game to Columbus, pressing them man-for-man and finding chances in transition before settling into a deeper block. A similar game plan against NYCFC could be on the cards, though they may have to execute without striker Lewis Morgan as he battles through an undisclosed injury.
The Red Bulls entered the playoffs as a darling of xG differential, finishing third in the regular season in that metric, according to FBref. But if they're without Morgan's hard running and goal threat, there's a real worry they'll fade against a capable New York City squad. Plus, with the biggest game changer in this matchup -- Freese -- wearing light blue, the Red Bulls' fairytale may be coming to an end.
Predicted winner: New York City FC
Eastern Conference semifinal: Orlando City vs. Atlanta United
Did anyone have Atlanta United beating Inter Miami in Round 1 on their bingo card? No? I didn't think so. When the Five Stripes bested Lionel Messi and friends across a three-game series, they pulled off the largest upset in MLS playoff history based on the 34-point gap between those two teams during the regular season.
To get past Miami, a couple of things needed to happen: Brad Guzan needed to stand on his head in goal and interim manager Rob Valentino's attackers needed to get hot at the other end. With Guzan saving nearly two goals more than expected, according to American Soccer Analysis, and Atlanta scoring nearly two goals more than expected, according to FBref, they checked both boxes.
Playing another game on the road, though, against an Orlando City team that will be far stingier defensively presents another challenge for Atlanta United. With a strong defensive structure, Oscar Pareja's squad can stymie the phases of play where Atlanta found the most success in Round 1.
Orlando won't make the same catastrophic off-ball errors Miami did. They are also well-positioned to take advantage of the defensive naivety of Atlanta United's winger-turned-wingback Saba Lobjanidze.
Look, I could be a fool for feeding the nobody believes in us beast. Practically speaking, there's oh-so-little separating these two teams. But this is a bad matchup for Atlanta.
Predicted winner: Orlando City
Predicted Western Conference final: LAFC vs. LA Galaxy
They're ESPN BET's favorites to win the whole thing, but I have some real questions about LAFC. I'm willing to bet Cherundolo does, too.
I'm not just talking about little fringe questions here. No, I'm talking about big ones like, who should start in the forward line, what does the midfield personnel look like, and what's the best defensive shape for this team? That those questions remain unanswered and LAFC's 2024 campaign is still alive speaks to their wildly impressive talent level.
And regardless of how those questions are answered, LAFC will find chances against the LA Galaxy's porous defense in this potential conference final. According to FBref, the Galaxy allowed more xG in the regular season than any non-wild-card playoff team not named Inter Miami. We know what happened to them. For Greg Vanney's team to triumph, their attack will have to fire on all cylinders.
Both of these teams are flawed -- that's the whole point of MLS' parity-first roster rules. But that LAFC have a game this weekend to search for answers to those questions up above, have home field, have game changers, and have the more balanced team means the odds are still in their favor. Who am I to argue with math?
Predicted winner: LAFC
Predicted Eastern Conference final: Orlando City vs. New York City FC
Get out your stationary, Orlando City. Grab a pen, too. You should write Atlanta United, the New York Red Bulls, and New York City FC a thank you note for taking down the three seeds above you in the East. Until MLS Cup, home-field advantage is now yours out East.
Every edge matters in the playoffs, especially given the almost imperceptible differences in quality between the two teams in this potential conference final.
NYCFC finished with the fifth-best xG differential in the East during the regular season, according to FBref. Orlando City finished sixth in that same metric. NYCFC finished fifth in the East in American Soccer Analysis broader goals added metric. Orlando City finished sixth. ESPN BET gives NYCFC the fourth-best odds of winning MLS Cup and Orlando City the third-best odds.
If you're looking for a differentiating factor between these two teams, you can find it in the experience gap. New York City were the second-youngest team in the regular season based on average age, weighted by minutes played. Pareja's team headed into the playoffs as the 13th-oldest team. That extra experience, and a little boost from the crowd, colors this matchup purple.
Predicted winner: Orlando City
Predicted MLS Cup: LAFC vs. Orlando City
Back when the playoffs first started nearly a month ago, it sure looked like we were in for a whole lot of chalk. For the first time in MLS history, four teams finished with more than 1.87 points per game in the regular season. Between Inter Miami's record-breaking season, the Columbus Crew's continued excellence, and all the stars in Los Angeles, picking any combination of those four teams to land in MLS Cup looked like a safe bet.
Now that chalk has been ground into a sort of fine powder. But in my tournament bracket, there's still a dusting of that powder left in the form of LAFC.
If prediction turns into reality here and Orlando City ends up traveling to face LAFC on the road, the team will have a chance on Dec. 7. It's MLS, everybody has a chance. But the Lions will be heavy underdogs -- and for good reason.
Despite balancing runs to the Leagues Cup and U.S. Open Cup finals, LAFC ended the year inside the top three in xG for and xG allowed. They were strong on set pieces, too, finishing sixth in the regular season in xG differential from dead balls, according to American Soccer Analysis.
Orlando City are no slouches defensively, with a strong spine and a willingness to be more conservative on the road. But without any other competitions to worry about, well-rounded, star-driven LAFC are the obvious pick of these two to lift MLS Cup.
Predicted MLS Cup winner: LAFC