All of the teams in Euro 2024 have played their first games, and they gave us a bit of everything we could want.
Five teams scored at least three goals, and Germany scored five. Fans from Albania and Georgia, immense underdogs, each got to thunderously celebrate goals, one of which came just 23 seconds into Albania's match with Italy. Another underdog, Slovakia, got to celebrate a huge win over Belgium. England got to both win and be miserable, two things they very much enjoy.
If you're a fan of last-minute fireworks, we got all we could want in Group F, with Georgia nearly scoring to tie Turkey before giving up an empty netter to fall 3-1 and Francisco Conceição scoring in the second minute of added time to finally pull Portugal ahead of the Czech Republic. (And if you're a fan of slapstick, we even got three own goals!)
The first round of matches at the 2024 European Championships was an absolute delight even if it didn't change a whole lot about the competition. The betting favorites before the tournament -- England, France, Germany, Portugal, Spain -- remain the favorites, and Belgium was the only even moderate favorite to lose.
But let's overreact anyway. It's fun. Here are some takeaways from the first 12 matches of Euro 2024.
Germany are going to win the whole thing
Germany's 5-1 win over Scotland was the stuff overreactions were made for. We got used to seeing demonstrative opening statements from Germany -- 8-0 vs. Saudi Arabia at the 2002 FIFA World Cup, 4-0 vs. Australia in 2010, 4-0 vs. Portugal in 2014 -- back when they were the most reliable and consistent country in the sport. Now, as they look for footing again after a number of stumbles, they produce a resounding, retro performance. And in front of a thrilled home crowd, no less.
Against a Scotland team that seemed bafflingly willing to open up the game early on, Germany were damn near perfect. The talismanic young combination of Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala combined to complete 61 of 63 passes (39 of 40 in the attacking third), and each scored brilliantly set-up goals -- Wirtz's assisted by Joshua Kimmich, Musiala's by Kai Havertz -- to put the game out of reach within 20 minutes. Granted, Scottish goalkeeper Angus Gunn probably should have done a bit more with Wirtz's effort, but the action was one-sided from the opening seconds.
Musiala successfully attempted five one-on-ones, and Toni Kroos had 32 combined progressive passes and carries; Scotland's entire team could only match those numbers, and they created six fewer chances than Germany's full-back duo of Kimmich and VfB Stuttgart's Max Mittelstadt. Germany even won 62% of the ball recoveries, which is a pretty decent proxy measure for pure hustle.
Julian Nagelsmann's recent decisions to (a) hand the keys of the attack to two 21-year-olds (Wirtz and Musiala) and (b) pair the beautifully controlled Kroos (102 passes, 101 completions) with Bayer Leverkusen's dirty-work master Robert Andrich in midfield, have completely changed the fortunes of the German national team over the past three months. Suddenly the squad has both energy and beautiful balance.
Even Antonio Rüdiger's incredibly flukey own goal was in its own way a sign of dominance: It allowed the hosts to make sure the visiting fans got to celebrate even while the visiting team never actually got to attempt a shot. (It went down as a shot attempt by Scott McKenna. We know better.) In my Euro 2024 preview, I said that Germany had been a strangely vibes-based team of late. Well, the vibes are pretty immaculate at the moment.
The most important player in this tournament is 16 years old
In what was supposed to be one of the marquee early matches of the tournament between Spain (one of the most consistent tournament teams in Europe) and Croatia, Spain won comfortably 3-0.
Álvaro Morata and Fabián Ruiz both scored during a frantic five-minute period that saw both teams place a couple of shots on goal (and only one team's goalkeeper make saves), then Dani Carvajal knocked in a Lamine Yamal cross to put Spain up 3-0 at half-time. Croatia had a couple of nice sequences in the second half and earned a penalty, but Unai Simón batted away Bruno Petkovic's effort, and that was basically that.
The match itself was as even as a three-goal finish can be, but Spain won for three primary reasons.
1. Simón was outstanding. Most of Croatia's shots came with defenders behind the ball, and they placed only five of their 16 shots on target, but the post-shot xG for those five shots, including the penalty, was a solid 2.4. Simon denied more than two expected goals' worth of shots.
2. Spain's finishing was surprisingly good. At Euro 2020 and the 2022 World Cup, Spain got stuck in a rut of draws. They won three matches and lost one, but they drew six times, three times in knockout-round matches (they won one penalty shootout and lost two). In those six draws, they scored four goals from shots worth a staggering 11.4 xG. For all of the brilliant passing Spain brings to the table, the actual shooting can abandon them. But not Saturday. Their three goals came from shots worth 1.9 xG, and I feel safe in saying that if Spain overachieves in that regard in this tournament, they immediately become one of the top three favorites, at worst.
3. Goodness, Yamal was good. And in such a unique way.
In all 2023-24 matches in the UEFA Champions League and Europe's "Big Five" leagues, only four players combined the following stats: (a) shots worth at least 0.45 combined xG, (b) completed passes worth at least 0.35 expected assists (xA) and 0.7 expected point value added (xPVA), (c) at least nine progressive carries and (d) at least six one-on-one attempts.
That's a unique combination of successful and frantic aggression, and it's something we typically only see in track-meet matches. Almería's Largie Ramazani did it in a 3-2 loss to Celta Vigo, for instance; Villarreal's Gerard Moreno (one of primary offenders in Spain's poor finishing spells in those previous tournaments) did it in a 3-2 loss to Athletic Club; and Yamal himself did it for Barca in a 5-3 loss to Villarreal. But then the 16-year-old did it again Saturday, adding exactly the right mix of aggression and general unpredictability to Spain's ball control game.
For the most part, Spain controlled the ball in the midfield on the center and left, with midfielders Rodri and Ruiz, left-back Marc Cucurella and center-backs Nacho and Robin Le Normand completing a combined 234 passes. But their ability to occasionally release pressure and completely change the angle with long switches of play to Yamal consistently scrambled Croatia's defense and gave Yamal opportunities to challenge defenders in space.
Using the xG+xPVA combination we've discussed before (a really nice combination for determining who's completing dangerous passes and creating dangerous scoring opportunities for themselves and others), here are the Euro 2024 leaders after one matchday:
1. Lamine Yamal, Spain (1.210 xG+xPVA, 86 minutes)
2. Christian Eriksen, Denmark (1.190, 90 minutes)
3. Andraz Sporar, Slovenia (1.060, 89 minutes)
4. Antoine Griezmann, France (0.926, 89 minutes)
5. Giorgi Kochorashvili, Georgia (0.844, 90 minutes)
Four players between 24 and 32 years old, including two of the most creative veterans in the game ... and Yamal, the 16-year old. Ridiculous.
Yamal and left winger Nico Williams bring a level of aggression to the table that Spain often haven't had. Spain traded a bit of ball control for danger Saturday, and it looked good on them, even if their second-half lead protection efforts were a bit scattershot. (They did, after all, need Simon to come up big.)
But if Simon is playing well and Yamal is dancing defenders into the ground and completing dangerous crosses, this recipe could work for another six matches. Yamal was in diapers when Croatia's Luka Modric was playing at Euro 2008, but he could be the most valuable player for one of the most dangerous teams in the field.
I'm not falling for it, England
First, a history lesson: In the first game of Euro 2020, England beat Croatia 1-0 in a match in which, well, nothing really happened. Both teams attempted just eight shots, and neither team attempted much in terms of direct offense or pressure defense. England scored on a lovely and long sequence that finished with an even lovelier Kalvin Phillips-to-Raheem Sterling goal, but England mostly succeeded in sucking the life out of the game. They gave Croatia nothing and relied on an individual moment of brilliance in attack. It was as effective as it was underwhelming.
In their next game, Scotland was able to make things a bit more hectic and attempted more shots (11 to nine), but England still didn't allow anything dangerous, and it ended in a scoreless draw. In the game after that, against the Czech Republic, Sterling scored early and England shut things down. They won 1-0 in a match with just 12 total shot attempts.
It was impossible to be thrilled by England's play to that point, and you're intentionally minimizing your margin for error by satisfying yourself with 1-0 wins. Still, they produced seven points and an easy group win. And in wins over Germany and Ukraine in the knockout rounds, they attempted just 11 total shots but somehow scored on six of them and cruised. No one could force them to open things up, so they didn't.
When Denmark took a 1-0 lead on them in the semis -- the first goal they had allowed all tournament -- they had to attack a bit more, and it looked great on them. It took them until extra time to work their way ahead in a 2-1 win, but they outscored the Danes 20-6 in the process. Then they took an early lead on Italy in the final with an unexpectedly swashbuckling start. (Let's not focus on what happened after that.)
Dull doesn't equal bad, is the main point. I'm reminding myself of that as much as anyone reading this. Gareth Southgate's England aims to advance, not entertain, and they've figured out a pretty solid way of doing it. With Sunday's painfully dull 1-0 win over Serbia, they're now unbeaten in seven straight major tournament group stage games.
Man, it was painfully dull, though. England scored on their first shot of the match, a brilliant run and finish by Jude Bellingham on a deflected cross in the 13th minute, and they proceeded to attempt only three shots, all from long range, over the next hour. Harry Kane hit the post in the 77th minute, and that was it. They had five total shots, two worth more than a paltry 0.05 xG, but they allowed Serbia only six shots, none worth greater than 0.05. Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka created almost nothing of value -- it was Saka's deflected cross that produced the goal, at least, but he got no assist; Foden, meanwhile, sure does spend a lot of time in the middle for a left winger -- but it didn't matter.
Go ahead on a moment of brilliance, and then do your best to completely erase the clock. It's the English way, and I'm not falling for the dire undertones, at least not yet. Call this one an underreaction, I guess.
Lukaku is the unluckiest player in the world (and Group E is upside down)
If you only watch soccer during the major international tournaments -- don't do this, by the way; you're missing a lot! -- then at this point you've probably concluded that Romelu Lukaku is the worst finisher in the history of the sport.
In the 2022 World Cup, Lukaku was limited to a bench role because of injury, but in Belgium's final group stage match against Croatia, with his team needing a win to advance, Lukaku put together some heroic work. On paper. In just 45 minutes, he attempted five shots worth a combined 1.7 xG. All of them came within 10 meters of the goal ... and none of them went into the net.
Fate was no kinder Monday in Belgium's 1-0 loss to Slovakia. In 90 minutes, Lukaku attempted three shots worth 0.8 xG, all within 10 meters again. In just the third minute, he got a decent leg on a transition opportunity (xG: 0.6) but hit it straight at goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka.
He couldn't capitalize on two other chances, he missed what appeared to be a sitter on a chance that was eventually called offside and on two different second-half occasions, he scored goals that were disallowed, the first because he was offside by inches and the second because Loïs Openda, who assisted him on the goal, had nicked the ball with his hand earlier in the sequence. Both calls were correct and totally gut-wrenching.
For the record, Lukaku has been awesome in a Belgium shirt throughout his career. The 31-year old scored 85 career goals for his country, 52 more than anyone else in Belgium's history, and in the past five years alone, he's scored 37 goals from shots worth just 28.8 xG. He has been an above-average finisher at worst in his career, but some of his most unfortunate moments have now come on the biggest possible stages. (I haven't even mentioned his ever-so-narrowly missed chances for Internazionale in the 2023 Champions League final yet.)
Good or bad fortune aside, the result was huge. Both Group E matches were. Heading into the tournament, odds derived from ESPN BET gave Belgium a 94% chance of advancing, followed by Ukraine at 68%, Romania at 57% and Slovakia at 49%. Following Slovakia's win and a jarring 3-0 romp by Romania, here are the current odds:
Percent change of advancing from Group E, per adjusted ESPN BET odds:
Romania 88% (up 31%)
Slovakia 81% (up 32%)
Belgium 71% (down 23%)
Ukraine 39% (down 29%)
Eight teams in the European Championships saw their odds move either up or down by at least 20% in the first set of matches; that includes all four teams in Group E. Romania looked quite intriguing in Euro qualification and benefited from some hot finishing against Ukraine, and now they're the favorite to win the group, but if Belgium registers a strong rebound against Romania on Saturday, the odds could get shuffled up all over again.
The Alps remain underrated
At least, the soccer coming from them is. (I assume the actual Alps, admired as they tend to be, are indeed properly rated.) I thought highly of Austria coming into the tournament and still do, but I also thought Switzerland might be prepped for a dud.
The Swiss are battle-tested, having reached the round of 16 of their past five major tournaments and having knocked out France (and nearly Spain, too) in penalties at Euro 2020. But they had not played very well against Euro teams over the past year, losing to Romania and drawing with Romania, Denmark and Austria. They're also a little bit long in the tooth -- six of their 11 starters Saturday are 31 or older, and that doesn't even include injured 32-year-old Xherdan Shaqiri, who frequently starts.
Combine that with the fact that Hungary entered the tournament in lovely form and had the single best and most creative player on the pitch (Dominik Szoboszlai), and I was pretty confident Hungary was going to handle Switzerland on Saturday and stake a claim to second in Group A.
Form only sometimes matters in these tournaments, and making picks based on it can occasionally make you feel foolish. Switzerland scored early on a beautiful combination from Bologna's Michel Aebischer to Ludogorets Razgrad's Kwadwo Duah and put away a 3-1 win with a late Breel Embolo goal. Szoboszlai recorded a nice assist, but that was about it. Switzerland's experience shined through.
In terms of qualification odds, this was the most impactful match outside of Group E -- again using odds derived from ESPN BET, Switzerland's odds of advancing jumped from 65% to 94%, while Hungary's dropped from 54% to 33%, both because they lost a winnable match and because they lost it by two goals.
Austria's odds of advancing, meanwhile, rose after their 1-0 loss to France on Tuesday. That says quite a bit. They couldn't stress France's Mike Maignan enough, attempting only six shots and putting three on goal, but they generated more touches in the attacking third, and they controlled the pitch for large portions of the match. They forced France's defenders to make strong individual plays -- being that said defenders are elite, they indeed made those strong plays -- and gave a good account of themselves in Dusseldorf.
Switzerland now has a 94% chance of advancing to the knockout rounds, while Austria's odds are holding steady at 55% and would surge with a win over Poland in Berlin on Friday. I listed them as sleepers to make a run in the knockout rounds, and I'm sticking to that. I just should have chosen Switzerland to do the same.
Every major tournament should be in Germany
Or at least some place that's actually accessible. Put a tournament in an accessible and affordable location, and watch all of Europe show up.
Wow! 🧡#EURO2024
— ESPN NL (@ESPNnl) June 16, 2024
Put a tournament in the home of the Bundesliga, and watch everyone start playing like a Bundesliga team. We haven't been completely violence-free, we weren't completely without first-match duds -- yes, hello, England -- and the world has officially been exposed to the fact that the German train system isn't nearly as good as it once was. But the goals are flowing, and the scenes around the matches have been mostly delightful.
After two straight World Cups in faraway and relatively foreboding places (Russia and Qatar), and with travel restrictions severely limiting mobility at the first post-COVID Euros, this is the first time since Euro 2016 in France that access has been reasonably easy and affordable. It's amazing what a difference that makes.