The last time Bayern Munich lost three matches in a row, in May 2015, it was a disease of luxury. With his team having already clinched its third straight Bundesliga title -- three straight titles! Can you imagine? -- Pep Guardiola had the option of rotating his squad heavily in league matches against Bayer Leverkusen and Augsburg in preparation for the Champions League semifinals against maybe the most talented Barcelona team of the century.
Bayer Leverkusen prevailed 2-0, Augsburg won 1-0 with Bayern playing with 10 men for 77 minutes, and in between, masterful Barcelona delivered an 11th-round knockout, scoring three goals after the 75th minute (including that goal) to turn a back-and-forth affair into a 3-0 win.
Almost nine years (and eight Bundesliga titles) later, Bayern have lost three in a row once more -- only this time, there's minimal luxury to be found.
Bayern are still on pace for 77 points in league play, mind you -- six more points than last season, when they narrowly took down Borussia Dortmund to win their 11th straight title -- and despite a funky 1-0 loss at Lazio in last week's round of 16, they're still the No. 4 favorite to win the Champions League, according to ESPN BET. Life could be worse, but Bayern trail a torrid Bayer Leverkusen by eight points in the Bundesliga, Opta's power ratings now say there's a 90.6% chance that their title streak will end in the coming months, and they have already agreed to part ways with an expensive manager after the season, less than a year after parting with a different expensive manager.
On Saturday, Bayern will host RB Leipzig (12:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+), a side against whom Bayern are winless in their past four matches. Another poor performance could bring Bayer Leverkusen's title odds even closer to 100%; it also might force Bayern to reconsider its current, questionable lame-duck arrangement with Thomas Tuchel. It also could be the start of a turnaround, of course, but that feels less likely than usual.
How did things get to this point?
Let's step back for a moment: How is it even possible that a team could win 11 straight league titles?
We've grown pretty accustomed to it at this point. In any given season, the Bundesliga produces a nonstop goals and attacking play, great crowds, impressive young talent -- the Bayer Leverkusen team that beat Bayern in May 2015 boasted, among others, Son Heung-min, Hakan Calhanoglu and Julian Brandt -- and, eventually, another Bayern crown.
When Bayern's absurd 11-year title streak began, the club was already Germany's superheavyweight. Even at that point, they had 21 Bundesliga titles in the previous 44 seasons. They had emerged as one of Europe's preeminent clubs in the 1970s, winning three straight European Cups with Franz Beckenbauer, Gerd Muller & Co. And after sharing the spotlight with a number of other high-level Bundesliga clubs (namely Borussia Monchengladbach and 1983 European champion Hamburg), Bayern won five German titles in six years during the late 1980s.
At a time in which the Bundesliga was falling behind leagues such as Serie A from a financial standpoint, and while German clubs such as Gladbach, Hamburg and Schalke faltered, Bayern seized control. And by the 2000s, it took either something particularly special -- a two-year run of glorious "heavy metal" from Jurgen Klopp's Borussia Dortmund in 2010-11 and 2011-12; a 23-match unbeaten streak from Werder Bremen in 2003-04 -- or a particularly jarring (and always brief) Bayern stumble for someone other than the Bavarian giants to win the league.
Following that second title from Klopp and BVB, however, Bayern stopped stumbling, and the rest of the league stopped producing anything particularly special.
In an era that has seen soccer's richest clubs financially separate themselves from the pack even further than they already had, the fact that Germany has only one of these super-rich clubs has been made pretty evident. The Bundesliga boasts quite a few clubs adept at unearthing and developing bright, young talent, but their reward has been losing these players pretty quickly to bigger clubs.
Between the summers of 2011 and 2023, Borussia Dortmund bid farewell to Ousmane Dembélé (Barcelona), Jadon Sancho (Manchester United), Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal), Erling Haaland (Manchester City), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Manchester United), Abdou Diallo (Paris Saint-Germain) and Ilkay Gündogan (Manchester City) for a combined €509 million in transfer fees, and that doesn't even include the trio of key 2010-12 stars (Mario Götze, Mats Hummels and Robert Lewandowski) that Bayern plucked away. Over that same span, Bayer Leverkusen sent Kai Havertz (Chelsea), Moussa Diaby (Aston Villa), Leon Bailey (Aston Villa), Son Heung-min (Tottenham Hotspur), Bernd Leno (Arsenal), Andre Schurrle (Chelsea), Chicharito (West Ham United) and Emre Can (Liverpool) to Premier League clubs for a combined €274 million.
In July 2019, Eintracht Frankfurt lost Luka Jovic and Sébastien Haller to Real Madrid and West Ham, respectively, for a combined €113 million. Last summer alone, RB Leipzig lost Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City), Christopher Nkunku (Chelsea) and Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) for a combined €220 million. Manchester City gave Wolfsburg €76 million for Kevin De Bruyne and Schalke €52 million for Leroy Sané. Liverpool and Chelsea worked out agreements for Naby Keita and Timo Werner, respectively, from RB Leipzig for a combined €113 million. The Bundesliga has been a spectacular provider of standout talent, but said talent tends to spend its prime years elsewhere.
Oh, and a lot of that talent has historically ended up in Munich.
While Bayern produced key talent in-house -- Thomas Müller, Philipp Lahm and David Alaba were famously homegrown -- and has unearthed exciting, young talent from unlikely sources (Alphonso Davies, for instance, came from MLS' Vancouver Whitecaps), a lot of their success has come from using the Bundesliga as a personal minor league affiliate. When they won the Champions League in 2020, they did so with what resembled a Bundesliga all-star team: Goalkeeper Manuel Neuer (Schalke), defenders Benjamin Pavard (Stuttgart) and Niklas Süle (Hoffenheim), midfielders Joshua Kimmich (RB Leipzig) and Leon Goretzka (Schalke), and attackers Serge Gnabry (Werder Bremen) and Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund) all arrived in Munich from elsewhere in Germany.
While non-Bayern Bundesliga clubs have still enjoyed some moments in European competitions -- BVB made the Champions League final in 2013, and it has reached three quarterfinals since; RB Leipzig made the Champions League semifinals in 2020; Eintracht Frankfurt won the Europa League in 2022; and Bayer Leverkusen reached the Europa League semis last year -- major, sustained success has been just outside their grasp.
A breakthrough always feels like it's a year away for clubs such as BVB and RBL. And while the transfer fees they receive are lucrative, part of the draw of signing with these clubs in the first place is that you know you'll end up somewhere else if you thrive. Making a healthy amount of money from player sales only means so much when someone else always has more money.
Among Bayern's potential rivals, the well-run clubs have ended up in perpetual "one year away" land, while the less well-run clubs have plummeted. Germany's strict licensing requirements emphasize sustainability and minimize debt, and even if you have a huge fan base and a solid history -- even if you're a Hamburg or a Schalke -- you will find that you cannot recover quickly from a run of mistakes. Hamburg have been stuck in the 2. Bundesliga since 2018, and after yo-yoing down, up and back down again, Schalke are sitting near the bottom of the second division. Throw in Hertha Berlin and Kaiserslautern and you've got four clubs averaging over 40,000 in home attendance but languishing outside the Bundesliga.
(By the way, that has created an awfully unique situation: The 2. Bundesliga's average home attendance is higher than Ligue 1's and nearly as high as that of LaLiga and Serie A. Last weekend, it outdrew the Bundesliga, not to mention every other league besides the Premier League.)
Years of strong talent acquisition combined with years of diminishing rivals created a perfect runway for Bayern to rip off a huge streak of titles. And even when an opponent had its act together (or Bayern didn't), Bayern were able to win anyway.
In 2018-19, Borussia Dortmund lost only once in their first 23 matches and led Bayern by 12 points heading into December, but Bayern ripped off their own one-loss-in-23 stretch, walloped Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 on the final day of the season and won the league by two points. And last season, BVB won eight matches in a row to begin the second half of the campaign, made up a nine-point deficit in the table and went into the final matchday leading Bayern by two points. But a gut-wrenching Dortmund draw with Mainz opened the door, and Bayern's 2-1 win over Koln -- replete with late heroics from Jamal Musiala -- earned them the title on goal differential.
What has changed? And why might Bayern Munich's streak end this year?
Bayern's fortunes in 2023-24 have been thrown off course by long-term trends, short-term misfortune and a rival that tops anything Germany has produced (outside of Munich) in quite a while.
First, the trends. Since their initial surge to a Bundesliga-record 91 points in 2012-13 under Jupp Heynckes, Bayern's stranglehold over the league has ever-so-slowly loosened.
There have been ups and downs, but you can spot a pretty clear trend line: Their three highest point totals in this span came during the first four years of the streak, and their four lowest totals have come in the past five seasons.
Bayern's success in the Champions League has followed a similar trend. They reached the finals three times in four years (2010 to 2013) then fell in the semis four times in five years (2014 to 2018). Firing Niko Kovacs in favor of Hansi Flick lit a spark in late 2019, and they were the best team in Europe over the second half of the pandemic-interrupted 2019-20 campaign: Over their final 30 matches of the season, they won 29 (12 by at least three goals) with one draw and no losses. But starting in 2020-21, they've lost in the quarterfinals for three straight seasons. In this year's Champions League, they'll need to rally against Lazio next month to even reach that round.
On one hand, you can explain this slow downward trend by simply saying that teams aren't supposed to be as dominant as Bayern were in the mid-2010s, and that regression was inevitable. But it's also pretty easy to draw a correlation between Bayern's slow slide and a slowdown in transfer success. The brilliant 2019-20 team might have been built from loads of Bundesliga talent, but since nabbing Mats Hummels from Borussia Dortmund in 2016-17, Bayern have found it a lot more difficult to plumb talent inside Germany. Premier League teams have begun offering more and more for Bundesliga talent -- and talent from everywhere else too -- and when in doubt, it makes sense for a BVB or RBL to deal with a team outside their domestic league.
Consequently, Bayern have missed out on the Erling Haalands of the world and have started paying increased fees for non-Bundesliga (and mostly non-German) players: Corentin Tolisso (Lyon) and Kingsley Coman (Juventus) in 2017-18, Lucas Hernández (Atletico Madrid) in 2019-20, Leroy Sané (Manchester City) in 2020-21, Matthijs de Ligt (Juventus) and Sadio Mané (Liverpool) in 2022-23, Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur) and Kim Min-jae (Napoli) in 2023-24.
Granted, there were still some intraleague acquisitions in there -- namely, Dayot Upamecano (RBL) in 2021-22, plus free transfers for Konrad Laimer (RBL) and Raphaël Guerreiro (BVB) this past offseason -- but shopping local hasn't been nearly as easy or useful in recent years. And it seems to have grown even more difficult since Bayern panic-fired Julian Nagelsmann in March 2023 and replaced him with Thomas Tuchel.
Before his hire at Bayern, Tuchel had last coached Chelsea in the Premier League, and it probably isn't a coincidence that after his hire, Bayern were suddenly linked to any number of Premier League veterans, from Kane to Declan Rice, from Fulham's João Palhinha to Manchester United's Scott McTominay and, in the winter, Tottenham's Eric Dier. (Dier came aboard in January.) Considering the premium you have to pay for a Premier League veteran, both in terms of transfer fees (in some cases) and salaries (in all cases), it's fair to question the wisdom or potential efficiency of this approach. (Furthermore, Dier had only been a regular starter in about three of the past six seasons for Tottenham and had barely played for Ange Postecoglou in 2023-24.)
Adding Kane came with an obvious goal-scoring benefit; even with a recent finishing funk, he has scored 29 goals with eight assists in 30 matches in all competitions this year. He is worth the enormous price tag of his contract, and Bayern's attack has improved, as you would expect, with him up front.
Kim Min-jae has been mostly solid too, but Bayern's midfield consistency has diminished significantly under Tuchel, and the manager has made it crystal clear he isn't satisfied with what he has there.
Joshua Kimmich is actually enjoying career-best averages in pass completion rate (91.0% in the Bundesliga), chance creation (3.0 per 90 minutes) and expected assists (0.4 per 90), but Tuchel is evidently not getting what he wants defensively from the 29-year-old and didn't even start him in that huge game (which they lost) against Bayer Leverkusen. Leon Goretzka's passing numbers are close to his career averages too, but he is winning far fewer duels and seemingly taking far fewer chances in attacking areas.
Honestly, the most damning thing you can say about Tuchel is that while Bayern's slow slide began long before he was hired, it's hard to find someone besides Sané whose overall play has actually improved over the past year. Kane is Kane, but Jamal Musiala's numbers have regressed, and the midfield is devoid of all confidence.
In the shorter term, meanwhile, Bayern also have been pretty unfortunate. They've lost seven matches in all competitions in 2023-24, and in these losses, they have attempted shots worth a combined 11.8 expected goals (xG) but have scored only four goals; opponents have attempted shots worth 8.8 xG but have scored 18 goals. Your full-season xG differential is typically quite predictive, and as is customary, Bayern have by far the best expected goal differential (xGD) in the league this season. But that hasn't translated to a league lead this time around.
(Source: TruMedia)
That said, while recent finishing issues probably won't last forever, there's no question that the Bayern defense is quickly trending in the wrong direction. Bayern rank 12th in the Bundesliga in goals allowed per match in 2024, and while they've allowed opponents to attempt shots worth at least a cumulative 1.0 xG in only 13 of 32 matches in all competitions (41%), six of eight opponents have done so in 2024 (75%). Kim missed a series of matches while playing in the Asian Cup, Dayot Upamecano missed a few with a minor injury (and has since suffered red cards in back-to-back matches), and Alphonso Davies and right-backs Noussair Mazraoui and Sacha Boey, another recent addition, are all injured.
Poor statistical fortune or not, Bayern were drastically outplayed by Bayer Leverkusen in a 3-0 loss on Feb. 10, and it has had a visible effect on the team's confidence and body language.
The other issue: Bayern haven't had to deal with a league foe as good as Bayer Leverkusen in quite a while, maybe ever
Only four teams not named Bayern have ever produced 75 points over a 34-game Bundesliga season: Borussia Dortmund in 2011-12 (81), 2015-16 (78), 2018-19 (76) and 2010-11 (75). If we go back in time and assign three points for wins instead of the two points that were given until 1995, you can add 1971-72 Schalke (76) and 1982-83 Werder Bremen (75) to that list. Meanwhile, only four non-Bayern squads have produced a goal differential better than +46 in a season: 2011-12 Borussia Dortmund (+55), 1979-80 Hamburg (+51), 1981-82 Hamburg (+50) and 2015-16 Borussia Dortmund (+48).
Bayer Leverkusen's current pace in 2023-24: 89.6 points and a +65 goal differential. These would easily be the best non-Bayern numbers the league has seen, and it's barely off of Bayern's record 91-point pace from 2012-13. The combination of Xabi Alonso's brilliant management -- he outcoached Tuchel in about 13 different ways in Bayer Leverkusen's 3-0 win -- and a wonderfully talented roster have finally given Bayern a rival they couldn't outclass when it mattered.
When the 2018-19 campaign was entering its stretch run, Bayern walloped BVB by a 5-0 margin. Last March, with BVB again threatening to top Bayern in the table, Bayern raced to a 4-0 lead on its rivals and won 4-2. We're used to the Bayern aura taking over when things get tight, but there was no aura boost in the loss to Bayer Leverkusen.
So, the big question: Could this all still turn around?
Of course. Maybe Bayern get hot and close the gap a bit, and maybe a late trio of huge matches for Bayer Leverkusen -- at fourth-place Borussia Dortmund on April 20, versus third-place Stuttgart on April 27 and at sixth-place Eintracht Frankfurt on May 4 -- causes the front-runners to finally blink and crumble in the moment (especially if Xabi Alonso to Liverpool/Bayern/wherever rumors grow too loud and distracting).
Maybe Bayern somehow salvages their 12th straight title and make a run in the Champions League. It feels rather unlikely, though, in part because Bayer Leverkusen seem to have actually improved of late and in part because Bayern's player morale and development don't seem likely to get back on track with Tuchel in lame-duck mode.
Bayern clearly want to join the Alonso sweepstakes this summer, and they evidently didn't trust any potential caretaker managers to do a better job than Tuchel between now and the end of the season. (They also perhaps wanted to avoid last season's mistakes: They fired Nagelsmann in late March then won only six of their final 12 games of the season under Tuchel.) We'll see if that sentiment remains true with another loss to RB Leipzig this weekend.
With Alonso, Zinedine Zidane or whatever big-name manager Bayern are able to lock into place this summer, we'll see some squad remodeling, and, for all we know, we'll see order restored in no time (if it hasn't already been restored by the end of the season). After all, think back to 2014-15: Following Bayern's three-game losing streak, they beat Barcelona 3-2 in the second half of their Champions League tie then lost to Freiburg, giving them four losses in five matches; they then proceeded to lose just four times over the next calendar year.
Bayern have a history of getting the last laugh in the Bundesliga, but it's not looked this unlikely in a long time.