2023-24 panic index: Lyon, Man United, Ajax in crisis mode

Soccer season is an exercise in patience. It lasts almost 10 months. Everyone looks particularly good (relatively speaking) or particularly bad for a stretch, even last season's European treble winners Manchester City. The teams that fare the best tend to be the ones that don't overreact to the poor spells. We're only in mid-October, so most teams either are, or still can be, fine at the end of the day.

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That said, a few have already left themselves in quite a hole. Whatever their goals might have been entering the season -- a title push, a top-four finish, simple improvement over last season -- those already appear to be long shots. Who might fall further? Who's simply been unlucky? Who should absolutely be PANICKING right now?

It's the Panic Index! Let's grade 10 struggling teams on a scale of 1 (this will pass) to 5 (oh my god, everything's broken).

Lyon

Current position: 17th in Ligue 1

What's wrong: What happens when you take a chronic underachiever and slap some serious financial issues and spending restrictions onto it? Maybe you get a situation where the club is forced to lean on a young core and build a feisty, us-against-the-world identity.

Or maybe it just collapses. Lyon have collapsed.

After finishing either seventh or eighth in Ligue 1 for three of the past four seasons despite a bright history and the upside required to make a shock semifinal run in the 2019-20 Champions League, Lyon ran into the aforementioned spending issues and found themselves with a roster devoid of any major upside outside that of attacking midfielder Rayan Cherki or 32-year old Alexandre Lacazette.

Transfermarkt still gives them the eighth-best roster value in France, which suggests they should have the upside to avoid relegation. But not much of that value is actually providing, well, value at the moment. Les Gones have yet to win in league play, and their current spot in the relegation zone is well earned: They've scored the fewest goals from shots worth the fifth-lowest xG, and they've allowed the second-most goals from shots worth the most xG. They fired Laurent Blanc in mid-September and hired Fabio Grosso, and they've pulled one point from their first three matches with the former Frosinone manager. He was brave to take the job.

Panic level (1-5): 5

It's still fair to assume that at some point, the talent shines through enough to avoid a bottom-three finish. It's also worth noting that their first two home matches after this international break are against last-place Clermont and 15th-place Metz. Winning those probably wouldn't get them out of the relegation zone ... but wins against anyone aren't guaranteed at the moment. What will snap this team out of this funk?

Ajax

Current position: 16th in the Eredivisie, third in Europa League Group B

What's wrong: For every season between 2009-10 and 2021-22, Ajax finished either first or second in the Eredivisie. They would produce stars, sell their rights to bigger clubs, and then replace them with someone even better. Ajax peaked in this era with a Champions League semifinal run in 2018-19 and began 2021-22 in even better form before fading, but they finally lost too much at once: Sébastien Haller, André Onana, Lisandro Martínez, Antony, Noussair Mazraoui, Ryan Gravenberch and manager Erik ten Hag all left in the summer of 2022. Ajax slipped to third, and that seemed like a huge collapse.

Apparently, it was only the first step of the collapse. They've beaten only Heracles and Ludogorets Razgrad this season, otherwise suffering four losses and four draws. They lost 4-0 at home to Feyenoord in a match that was abandoned and rescheduled after a fan revolt. Director of football Sven Mislintat was fired. Manager Maurice Steijn probably will be soon, too.

They've had to rush certain prospects to the first team (17-year-old defender Jorrel Hato has played every minute), and other key players, like goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli, have been lost to injury. The talent level isn't as high as normal, and the vibes are toxic.

Panic level (1-5): 5

Granted, this isn't a relegation-worthy squad unless said toxic vibes just overwhelm everything else, but the stats have been definitively mid-table thus far. Both their goal differential and xG differential rank ninth among 18 Eredivisie teams, and their defense is genuinely atrocious. Falling to third was unacceptable, but they've already fallen 16 points behind third-place Twente.

The only goal for now, once the slide is arrested, is to try to crawl back into the top eight and qualify for the Conference League playoff. That's somehow the best-case scenario.

Manchester United

Current position: 10th in the Premier League, last in Champions League Group A

What's wrong: Erik ten Hag's Red Devils overachieved in finishing third in the Premier League last year -- their xG differential and overly strong performance in close games suggested they were more like the fifth- or sixth-best team in the league. But they boasted strong continuity and seemingly did well in plugging two of last season's biggest holes with goalkeeper André Onana and forward Rasmus Hojlund.

Retaining a top-five core and filling two important holes seemed like a solid recipe for a quick start. Alas. Their four league wins have come against teams ranked between 13th and 18th, and all were by a single goal. They've played three top-six teams and lost to them by a combined 8-2. They also lost their first two Champions League matches to Bayern away (excusable) and Galatasaray at home (not so much).

In league play, they are averaging 1.1 goals (11th) from shots worth 1.6 xG (11th), and they're allowing 1.5 (12th) from shots worth 1.5 (11th). Definitively mid-table in every way. Errors have sapped Onana's confidence, which, combined with a spate of injuries at both center-back and left-back, has destroyed the defense. And despite Ten Hag's desire for pressing and possession, they've allowed as many goals from high turnovers (three) as they've scored.

Panic level (1-5): 4

As with a lot of teams on this list, overall talent levels suggest a rebound of some sort should come, especially when the injury bug stops biting. This is still a team with Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and a lot of known quantities.

Still, they're five points outside of the top four, and most of those teams occupying those top positions have equal or higher levels of known talent. Plus, fellow relative underachievers like Newcastle or Chelsea are just as likely to surge as they are. A rebound needs to begin sooner than later.

MANCHESTER UNITED ARE BOTTOM OF GROUP A WITH ZERO POINTS 😨

They've lost three of their last four home games 😬 pic.twitter.com/jeLEUEpO18

— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) October 3, 2023

Villarreal

Current position: 16th in LaLiga, second in Europa League Group F

What's wrong: Villarreal have made a habit of saving their best for continental play, winning the Europa League in 2021, then reaching the Champions League semis a year later. In Spain they've been mostly ... decent. They've finished between fifth and seventh in LaLiga in eight of the past 10 seasons, and they had to pull off a spectacular rally -- 33 points in their last 16 matches -- to finish fifth in 2022-23.

This year, they need to rally again. Through nine league matches they've beaten only Mallorca and Almeria. They began Europa League play with a 2-0 loss to Panathinaikos. Forward Nico Jackson and winger Samuel Chukwueze combined for 26 goals and 15 assists in all competitions last year, but left for Chelsea and Milan, respectively, and defender Pau Torres left for Aston Villa, too.

New acquisition Alexander Sorloth has been solid (five goals in 11 matches), but the attack has been otherwise stagnant. They're averaging 1.2 goals (13th in LaLiga) from shots worth 1.2 xG (13th), and they're allowing 1.7 goals (16th) from shots worth 1.5 (14th). Quique Setien was quickly fired in early September, but replacement manager Pacheta has only slightly improved things. This is an overachiever club that is merely achieving at the moment.

Panic level (1-5): 4

A top-seven finish is generally where the bar is set for Villarreal, and right now they're producing 15th-place stats with a roster value that ranks eighth, per Transfermarkt. That's a problem. Among most of Spain's other clubs with semi-realistic European aspirations, only Sevilla have also struggled to start the season. Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are well ahead in the table, and with better roster value.

We know Villarreal can surge -- we saw it last spring -- but you can't rely on pulling that off too many times.

Schalke 04

Current position: 16th in the 2. Bundesliga

What's wrong: The past few seasons in Gelsenkirchen have been ... messy. After finishing second in the league in 2017-18, they dropped to 14th and 12th over the next two seasons, then plummeted to last place with just 16 points and a near-record losing streak. Thanks to a late-season charge, they won the second division the next season and went right back up, but none of their long-term planning issues and increasing financial issues had yet been rectified.

After a dreadful start to 2022-23, they nearly saved themselves late but couldn't, finishing 17th. Now, without a couple of key contributors and a lot of the loanees they brought in to save them last season, they're dropping even further.

Schalke have won only two of their first nine second-division matches this season, and they fired respected manager Thomas Reis after a 3-1 loss at St. Pauli. They made an intriguing replacement hire in Karel Geraerts, most recently of Belgian overachiever Union Saint-Gilloise. He's an aggressive manager who encourages take-ons and progressive carries, but aside from active left-back Thomas Ouwejan and precocious 17-year-old Forzan Ouedraogo, it's unclear whether they actually boast the players who can reward this aggression.

Panic level (1-5): 3

I really like the vision in hiring Geraerts instead of bringing in some firefighter who can lead them to 15th place instead of 17th. I like it when hires like that are rewarded. But their spot in the table has been well earned; they might actually be a bit lucky, in fact, considering their xG differential actually ranks 17th. This roster does not work, and the future is still a mystery, but they should have enough talent to avoid another relegation, at least.

Union Berlin

Current position: 13th in the Bundesliga, fourth in Champions League Group C

What's wrong: He didn't really stand out on the stat sheet, but watching Union Berlin during their Cinderella run to fourth place and a Champions League berth last season, it was easy to notice just how important Rani Khedira was to the team's success. And if there was any room for doubt, that has been erased in his recent absence.

Khedira played 94% of Union's minutes last season in all competitions, keying both their defensive solidity and providing perfect pivot play into attack. Thanks to a bad calf injury, he's played in only one match this season. Center-back Robin Knoche (96% of minutes last year) has missed five matches, and other mainstays like forward Sheraldo Becker and midfielder Janik Haberer have missed time as well. Ten newcomers have recorded 39% of Union's minutes, which is a bit much for a team so heavily based on tight, high-familiarity defense and precise counter-attacking.

Throw in an increase in goals (and general attacking prowess) in the Bundesliga and smiting from the god of xG -- their league goal differential was 0.51 goals per match higher than their xG differential last season and is 0.41 lower this season -- and you've got a recipe for a seven-match losing streak. Union are giving up both more and higher-quality shots than last season and lost both of their initial Champions League games after stoppage-time winners. Blessed runs always come to an end, and Union's has absolutely crashed.

Panic level (1-5): 3

Their underlying numbers suggest that relegation isn't a concern unless this losing streak causes serious fissures. It was always going to be difficult to make another top-four run, but hopes of reaching any continental tournament for the fourth straight year are already on life support unless Khedira's return is even more transformative than expected.

Lazio

Current position: 13th in Serie A, second in Champions League Group E

What's wrong: In recent times, Lazio have basically been a Serie A Villarreal, finishing between fourth and eighth in 10 of the past 13 seasons. But with both Milan clubs dealing with loads of momentum swings and Juventus' eventual point deduction eliminating them from the race, Lazio sidled up into second place in 2022-23, their best finish since winning the Scudetto in 1999-2000.

Now they're in 13th. That would be their worst finish since 2005-06. They lost midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Saudi Arabia, and while they brought in both Matteo Guendouzi and Daichi Kamada to fill that creative void, neither has lit the world afire yet. Lazio lost three of their first four matches and drew with Monza, which offset the effects of an early win over Napoli. Even with better recent play, they're still seven points outside the top four. Their attack is distinctly average -- 10th in goals scored, 13th in xG created -- and their defense is 14th in both goals and xG allowed. Of their new additions, only midfielder Nicolo Rovella, on a two-year loan deal from Juventus, has really delivered much.

Panic level (1-5): 2

It seems Maurizio Sarri's team has become more stable over the past month. Lazio have taken seven points from their past four league matches -- they beat Atalanta 3-2 in a rousing match right before this international break -- and they've started well in Champions League play, snagging a late draw against Atletico Madrid and beating Celtic away. If they're still ahead of Feyenoord after the teams play away and home in a few weeks, they'll be in a good position to advance. Meanwhile, only one of their next seven Serie A opponents is currently higher than 10th in the table.

Now's the time for a rebound, and I think it's already begun (even if the defense is still worrisome).

Roma

Current position: 10th in Serie A, second in Europa League Group G

What's wrong: In his third season at Chelsea, Jose Mourinho's squad dropped from second to fifth place. In his third year at Real Madrid, the Blancos went from 100 points to 85 and from first to second. Back at Chelsea, he finished third and first and was fired in 16th place in Year 3. In his third season at Manchester United, he was fired after dropping from second to sixth.

Mourinho's name has been tied to the feared "third-year effect" for quite a while now, and it's funny: I sort of assumed he and Roma would part ways this offseason because of it. He had a strange couple of seasons in Rome, finishing a reasonably disappointing sixth in Serie A both years but winning the Conference League in 2022 and making the Europa League final this past spring. (They lost there, by the way. Yes, Jose, you lost.)

But neither the club nor manager got around to making a change, it seems, so they're still together. And they're 10th in the table. Despite bringing in some reasonably sparkly names like Romelu Lukaku, Leandro Paredes, Evan Ndicka and Houssem Aouar, they began the year in a rather familiar funk, pulling five points from their first six matches.

Panic level (1-5): 2

Their xG differential in league play (+0.6 per match) is tied for fourth in Serie A, and while their attacking numbers were juiced by a 7-0 win over Empoli, they've still scored at least two goals in five of their past seven matches and four in each of the past two. They're only three points behind fifth-place Napoli -- a team that might have deserved a place on this list as well -- and should at least be back into their comfortable sixth-place range soon.

Chelsea

Current position: 11th in the Premier League

What's wrong: They still can't finish. It's incredible. Last season, they generated shots worth 1.3 xG per match (12th in the EPL) but averaged just 1.0 goals (tied for 15th). This season, they're creating shots worth 1.9 xG (tied for sixth) but scoring just 1.4 (tied for ninth). Active new 2023 additions Nicolas Jackson and Enzo Fernández have combined to attempt 36 shots worth 6.3 xG but have scored just twice. Aside from veteran Raheem Sterling, most of their other primary attackers are also coming up short in that department, and it's cost them -- they've had four league matches decided by 0-1 goals and have lost two and drawn two. Chelsea are fourth in xG differential but 11th in the table.

Panic level (1-5): 2

Jackson has been a perfectly decent finisher for most of his young career, and star signing Christopher Nkunku, injured during summer friendlies, could finally make his debut in a few more weeks.

You can see the fun and active identity new manager Mauricio Pochettino wants to build, and it's coming along. Chelsea allow 9.7 passes per defensive action (fourth fewest) and start 12.1% of their possessions in the attacking third (second most). They're also third in the league in xG per shot -- they're pressing and creating high-quality opportunities from it. Those opportunities have begun to find the net, too: After scoring five goals in their first six matches, they scored six in their last two before the international break.

Things change -- especially when there's a potential momentum-killing international break popping up every few weeks -- but between Chelsea and Manchester United, it feels like Chelsea are closer to a hot streak. Obviously the top portion of the Premier League is crowded with teams with both money and a plan, and at some point Chelsea need to stop bringing in a full squad's worth of players in every transfer window. But you can see reason for optimism here.