It's not quite the beginning of the end, but Joe Schmidt's penultimate assignment as Wallabies coach is a sign the Kiwi's curtain call is on the horizon.
Rugby Australia's succession plan, which will see Queensland Reds coach Les Kiss take over from Schmidt ahead of the Nations Championship next year, was officially signed off earlier in 2025. It means the spring tour, which begins when the Wallabies face Japan in Tokyo on Saturday, is Schmidt's final overseas venture.
The Tests against England, Italy, Ireland and France that follow, will play a huge part in determining whether Schmidt finishes with a coaching record north of 50%.
Already the Kiwi's legacy as a Wallabies coach is secure, however, such has been his work in turning around Australia since the rock-bottom ruins of Rugby World Cup 2023. While the Wallabies are still not where they would like to be from a rankings perspective, they are a far more competitive team than the one that travelled to France in 2023 - and have the respect of their international peers once more as a result.
Along the way there have been several outstanding results, headed by the victories at Twickenham and Johannesburg, the Ellis Park triumph in particular serving as one of the Wallabies' greatest moments of the professional era.
But while those unbridled moments of joy have helped to reassert the Wallabies, not only on the global rugby scene, but also on the Australian sporting consciousness, Schmidt still only boasts a winning record of 43.47%.
In the recent history of Wallabies coaches, that figure puts him in front of both Eddie Jones [22.22%] and Dave Rennie [36.36%], while Michael Cheika's six-year tenure saw him finish with a winning rate of bang on 50%.
With eight, or maybe nine Tests if a warm-up game is added before the inaugural Nations Championship, to come before he hands over to Kiss, Schmidt needs six further wins to finish with a positive winning record as coach of Australia.
That means wins over Japan, this weekend, and Italy in a fortnight's time are non-negotiable, while Australia would then need to pinch at least one of the Tests with England, Ireland or France to set themselves up with the goal of beating each of England, Ireland and Italy back in Australia next year.
Despite all of the improvement in the Wallabies' play, the smart bet would be that Australia falls short of that target, particularly given the resurgence of their discipline woes from the Rennie era late this year's Rugby Championship.
There is also the persistent conundrum at fly-half, still, the Wallabies head into this weekend's Test in Tokyo as rightful red-hot favourites.
If Schmidt can somehow get the Wallabies to reproduce their sparkling performances from the third Test against the British & Irish Lions or the win over the Springboks in Johannesburg on a more consistent basis, then a winning record closer to Robbie Deans [58.67] would befit the rebuild he has already accomplished.
Not that the coach himself is concerned by the number that accompanies his name at the end of July next year. His immediate focus is on defeating a Japan side ranked six places below Australia, but doing so with a team that has 13 new faces in it from the one that lost to the All Blacks last month.
"There's definitely a risk, and I guess part of the job of the coaching staff is to manage risk as best as we can," Schmidt said Thursday when asked about his wholesale changes.
"If we don't give opportunity to the squad, then I think we start to lose that energy towards the end of a five-Test window, particularly when you're travelling such long distances and jumping timezones; fatigue becomes pretty apparent within two or three weeks, let alone five consecutive weeks, let alone on the back of 10 Test matches that we've had already.
"So combining those things together, we have massive respect for Japan, they've come very close to beating teams and have beaten bigger teams than us in the past, so we're very conscious of that and that's going to be a challenge for the players that have been selected."
Schmidt's legacy as a coach who helped restore pride back into both the Wallabies and Australian rugby is undoubtedly secure. But with no Bledisloe Cup nor Rugby Championship title now possible, and a rare British & Irish Lions series triumph having [narrowly] passed him by, it will be a resume with only sparing pieces of silverware.
A winning rate of 50% or better with the Wallabies won't change all that, but it would add another feather in the cap of a coach who already proved himself one of the world's best with Ireland - and later took on the job of bringing Australian rugby back from the brink of no return.