BRISBANE -- The 12-year wait is almost over.
The Wallabies will finally do battle with the British and Irish Lions once more, with the two sides to open their three-Test series on Saturday night.
According to the bookmakers, Australia are next to no chance of winning the first Test at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. You can, in fact, get odds as high as $4.40 for the Wallabies, while the tourists are as short as $1.23
Here are five very good reasons why the Lions should dominate the Wallabies in Brisbane -- and one why Australian fans shouldn't abandon all hope.
The Lions have won the past two Tests in Brisbane to start the series
Just how much value you should place on two games in 12 years apart is debatable, but in the context of how this famous series sets up it is certainly merits discussion. In 2001, the Lions blew the Wallabies out of the water, Irish great Brian O'Driscoll scoring a memorable solo try in front of a Gabba crowd that may as well have been in Dublin or London, such was the sea of red in the stands. The Lions went on to win that Test comfortably, triumphing 35-14 to lay the platform for a series they would ultimately lose.
It was a far tighter contest in 2013, though, with Israel Folau's first-half heroics putting the Wallabies on the front foot, only for Lions wingers George North and Alex Cuthbert to each score stunning tries of their own. Australia had one last chance to steal the result late, but Kurtley Beale endured one of the more devastating slips in national sporting history, his post-siren penalty attempt low and wide, leaving Wallabies fans to trudge back up Caxton St. to drown their sorrows and lament what might have been.
The Wallabies don't have Rob Valetini
If there is one player the Wallabies simply couldn't afford to lose, it was their two-time reigning John Eales medalist: Rob Valetini. The Brumbies back-rower is one of the team's few genuinely world-class players, who provides so much of Australia's go-forward through the middle of the paddock. He is also a jarring defender, who can change the momentum of a match with a single tackle. Fortunately, Wallabies coach Joe Schmidt on Thursday said Valetini and lock Will Skelton would be right for the second Test in Melbourne next Saturday.
Asked on Friday whether he needed to up his own workload as a ball-carrier as result of Valetini's absence, Wallabies skipper Harry Wilson said: "I'd say all of us have to, the thing with Bobby, he takes the tough carries for us, week in, week out. You don't take it for granted, you just appreciate a bloke who can take on two or three people and still give you front-foot ball. I think the whole forward pack really has to step up because when you're missing a player like him, it's obviously not ideal, but if everyone just picks up that little 10%, [that can cover for Valetini].
If you're looking for a reference point of Valetini's impact, Australia's stunning victory over England is a good starting point. His 38 run metres were the highest of any forward on the paddock, and he put up the second most carries with 13. Who topped that stat you ask? Harry Wilson [16].
The Lions No. 10 has 87 Test caps; the Wallabies' only 3
Lions coach Andy Farrell on Thursday admitted he had been contemplating Scotland fly-half Finn Russell as his No. 10 for months and while he considered other options, Russell never strayed too far from his mind. And that is with good reason, too, as the Bath playmaker has 87 appearances for his country, plus one off the bench for the Lions in South Africa in 2021. He has also fought back from being dumped from the national squad by coach Gregor Townsend, and most recently helped guide Bath to the English premiership crown. He is a long-time, world-class No. 10, not bad for a player who was once described as too much of a maverick for the international arena.
The Wallabies, on the other hand, have turned to 22-year-old Tom Lynagh at No. 10, a player who has never before started a Test match, and has just three Test caps to his name full-stop. Noah Lolesio was always going to be Schmidt's man in Brisbane, until a neck injury and subsequent surgery ruled him out of rugby indefinitely. It means Australia are taking an extremely inexperienced -- and underdone given his last game was the Reds' quarterfinal loss six weeks ago -- playmaker into the biggest rugby arena outside of a knockout World Cup game or a live Bledisloe Cup Test. The other concern for Australia? Lynagh has had his own issues with head knocks and lasted only 35 minutes of that quarterfinal against the Crusaders last month. Ben Donaldson will need to be ready to go from the outset.
For the record, the total Test caps read Australia 641, the Lions 1172. That is a huge margin, but one made even more disparate by the fact that 225 of the Wallabies' total lies with props James Slipper [144] and Allan Alaalatoa [81].
Suncorp Stadium used to be a Wallabies fortress; it isn't any more
There was a time when Australia wished they could play all their Tests in Brisbane. Sydney had become such an unhappy hunting ground, particularly at Bledisloe Cup time, while ventures to Perth and Melbourne also only occasionally bore fruit. But Suncorp Stadium may as well have been their home ground; there were Bledisloe wins in 2011, 2017, and 2020; they beat the Springboks six out of seven Tests at the venue between 2009 and 2021. There were also two wins over France in 2021.
But they haven't been victorious at the venue since that second Test against Les Bleus, losing to England in 2022 and then South Africa last year, that defeat a particularly crushing result when they barely fired a shot and eventually were thumped 33-7.
The Lions are battle hardened, the Wallabies are not
While the Lions have chopped and changed their lineups in their six matches to date, the players have each had ample time in which to prepare for this Test on Saturday night. Crucially in the halves, Jamison Gibson-Park and Finn Russell have had two outings together, while the 10-12-13 Scottish axis of Russell, Tuipulotu, and Huw Jones is vastly experienced as a cohesive trio.
The same can't be said of Australia, who will take a halves pairing into the Test that has never before played together, while the team itself has had just one warm-up game, which admittedly is a better preparation than the sides of 2001 and 2013 which had none.
Then there is the fact that multiple Wallabies are severely underdone as individuals; the likes of Jake Gordon, Matt Faessler, Max Jorgensen all missed large chunks of the Super Rugby season while Lynagh was in and out of the Reds because of head knocks and Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii had his season ended by a fractured jaw a month out from the finals.
Australia have Joe Schmidt, and little to no expectations
All that makes for ugly reading for Australia and fully reflects why their price with the bookies has drifted to $4.40 as the week has gone on. They are clear outsiders on Saturday night and rightly so, as the Wallabies have been "pretty mediocre" for some time, as former captain Stephen Moore told ESPN this week.
Does anything support a Wallabies win, then? It may be clutching at straws, and tempered by the loss of key personnel, but there is no doubt Australia turned a corner under Schmidt last year, their improvements in some of the game's fundamentals were undeniable. They are also playing from a position where the vast majority of people are expecting them to not only lose this Test, but the series too.
The underdog tag is not much to cling to, but perhaps there is a freedom in playing a game that very few people give you any hope of winning. The same "no chance" sentiments were being said about skipper Harry Wilson's Test career a couple of years back, too.
"I've just always wanted to be a Wallaby, to me it's the biggest honour you can get is playing for your country and pulling on this gold jersey," Wilson said after Friday's captain's run.
"You have your ups and downs, no one has a career where you don't have a few downs and I've definitely had a fair few. But I've just always wanted to put myself in these situations, and tomorrow night, a sold-out Suncorp Stadium, it's definitely made a few of the lows all worth it to get back here."