<
>

Super Rugby Pacific 2024: Quarterfinals line-ups predictions odds

play
Has Nawaqanitawase played his final Test before NRL move? (3:09)

The ESPN Scrum Reset team react to Mark Nawaqanitawase not being included in a Wallabies train-on squad, and answer if he'll play Test rugby before he switches codes. (3:09)

It's finals time! After 15 regular season rounds, we have our eight Super Rugby Pacific quarterfinalists for 2024.

Sadly for the Waratahs, Force, Moana Pasifika and, incredibly, the Crusaders, their seasons are all over. NSW will have a new coach next year, but what about the Crusaders; will Rob Penney be back?

That question will be answered over the coming weeks. In the meantime, we've got three straight weekends of finals footy to look forward to.

Check out all the team lists, key ins and outs, odds and our tips below.

Friday, June 7

Chiefs vs.

Reds

FMG Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, 5:05pm [AEST]

Chiefs: Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa, Anton Lienert-Brown, Rameka Poihipi, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Damian McKenzie, Cortez Ratima, Wallace Sititi, Luke Jacobson (capt), Samipeni Finau, Tupou Vaa'i, Jimmy Tupou, George Dyer, Samisoni Taukei'aho, Aidan Ross

Replacements: Bradley Slater, Jared Proffit, Reuben O'Neill, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Simon Parker, Xavier Roe, Quinn Tupaea, Daniel Rona

Reds: Jock Campbell, Tim Ryan, Josh Flook, Hunter Paisami, Mac Grealy, Tom Lynagh, Tate McDermott; John Bryant, Fraser McReight, Liam Wright, Ryan Smith, Seru Uru, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Matt Faessler, Alex Hodgman

Replacements: Josh Nasser, Sef Fa'agase, Zane Nonggorr, Connor Vest, Joe Brial, Kalani Thomas, Lawson Creighton, Taj Annan

Odds [tab.com.au]: Chiefs $1.22, -9.5 $1.85; Reds $4.20, +9.5 $1.95

Prediction: There is every chance that the three games that follow this clash in Hamilton will be duds, so there is a lot riding on the weekend's opening fixture. And there is optimism it will deliver, too, given the Reds have enjoyed some recent success against the Chiefs -- beating them in Round 3 this year -- and also pushed the Waikato outfit for 70 minutes in a finals game 12 months ago. The Reds also enter this game on the back of two straight wins -- and four victories from their last five -- albeit they were very nearly run down in Sydney last week. But there is no doubting Queensland have played a superior brand of rugby under Les Kiss to what they could produce with Brad Thorn at the helm, with Tom Lynagh, Josh Flook, Mac Grealy, Ryan Smith and Matt Faessler all growing in stature, while the recruitment of Kiwi props Alex Hodgman and Jeffery Toomaga-Allen has also proved a masterstroke. But the Reds are staring down what is arguably the most jaw-dropping stat in Super Rugby history -- the fact that no Aussie team has ever won a finals clash across the ditch. Many have come close, the Reds among them, yet it has proved a mountain to steep to climb. After two straight defeats and a patchy back half of the season, the Chiefs, meanwhile, are also not travelling as well as they were this time last year. The Kiwis have been boosted by the return of four All Blacks in Shaun Stevenson, Emoni Narawa, Anton Lienert-Brown and Tupou Vaa'i, while Samisoni Taukei'aho is also back in the No. 2 jersey. On paper, the Chiefs should have too much firepower and class, particularly given they are at home, for the Reds here. If they are to be any chance, Queensland will need to nail every opportunity that comes their way, kick all their goals, and start fast -- they simply must play the perfect game. It is an almighty challenge as the 28-year drought suggests, and one that might just be beyond them despite all their improvements this season.

Tip: Chiefs by 5.

DOWNLOAD THE ESPN SCRUM RESET PODCAST HERE!

Saturday, June 8

Hurricanes vs.

Melbourne Rebels

Sky Stadium, Wellington, 2:35pm [AEST]

Hurricanes: Ruben Love, Josh Moorby, Billy Proctor, Jordie Barrett (C), Salesi Rayasi, Brett Cameron, TJ Perenara; Brayden Iose, Peter Lakai, Devan Flanders, Isaia Walker-Leawere, Justin Sangster, Pasilio Tosi, Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia

Replacements: James O'Reilly, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Tevita Mafileo, Brad Shields, Du'Plessis Kirifi, Richard Judd, Bailyn Sullivan, Kini Naholo

Rebels: Andrew Kellaway, Lachie Anderson, Filipo Daugunu, David Feiluai, Darby Lancaster, Carter Gordon, Ryan Louwrens; Rob Leota, Brad Wilkin, Josh Kemeny, Josh Canham, Angelo Smith, Taniela Tupou, Jordan Uelese, Isaac Kailea

Replacements: Alex Mafi, Matt Gibbon, Sam Talakai, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Maciu Nabolakasi, Vaiolini Ekuasi, James Tuttle, Nick Jooste

Odds: [tab.com.au] Hurricanes $1.01, -27.5 $1.90; Rebels $14, +27.5 $1.90

Verdict: You have got to admire what the Rebels have done this season in achieving a first ever finals appearance in a full Super Rugby competition, given everything that has been going on in the background. The fact they were able to start like they did in Lautoka last weekend, giving hope to the Crusaders in doing so, was also impressive, even though the Drua eventually ran away to a thumping victory. And the challenge only goes up considerably this week against the in-form Hurricanes. Clark Laidlaw's side was superb in a rout of the Highlanders, a result that, combined with Josh Ioane's late try in Auckland, secured the Canes top seeding for the finals. And you would fully expect them to run up another sizeable win in this one. The Canes are boosted by the return of powerhouse No. 8 Peter Lakai to the starting side, while Jame Tucker [lock] is the only other change to the run-on XV. The Rebels, meanwhile, have regained Carter Gordon while Andrew Kellaway shifts to fullback with Lachie Anderson back from injury. If this is the last time we ever see a Melbourne side in Super Rugby Pacific, hopefully it is not a complete whitewash. But it should be a fairly serene passage for the Canes into next week's semifinals.

Tip: Hurricanes by 30.

Blues vs.

Drua

Eden Park, Auckland, 5:05pm [AEST]

Blues: Stephen Perofeta, Mark Tele'a, Rieko Ioane, AJ Lam, Caleb Clarke, Harry Plummer, Finlay Christie, Hoskins Sotutu, Dalton Papali'i, Akira Ioane, Josh Beehre, Patrick Tuipulotu, Marcel Renata, Ricky Riccitelli, Ofa Tu'ungafasi

Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Joshua Fusitu'a, Angus Ta'avao, Cameron Suafoa, Adrian Choat, Taufa Funaki, Corey Evans, Cole Forbes

Drua: Ilaisa Droasese, Selestino Ravutaumada, Iosefo Masi, Kemu Valetini, Waqa Nalaga, Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, Frank Lomani, Meli Derenalagi (c), Kitione Salawa, Etonia Waqa, Leone Rotuisolia, Mesake Vocevoce, Mesake Doge, Tevita Ikanivere, Livai Natave

Replacements: Zuriel Togiatama, Emosi Tuqiri, Samu Tawake, Isoa Nasilasila, Motikiai Murray, Elia Canakaivata, Peni Matawalu, Caleb Muntz

Odds: [tab.com.au] Blues $1.01, -25.5 $1.90; Drua $14, +25.5 $1.85

Verdict: The Blues had top spot all locked up -- until they didn't. But while their 80th-minute heartache left a bitter taste at Eden Park last Saturday, it may be that it actually works out in their favour. You can read how, here. The Blues were dominant before that however, surging to a commanding lead the Chiefs never really looked like worrying. Again it was Hoskins Sotutu doing the damage, albeit after a yellow card, while the other usual suspects in Mark Telea and Caleb Clarke also enjoyed an evening out. The Drua, meanwhile, needed a win to book themselves a second straight finals appearance and while that appeared unlikely early, they steadied and ran away to a comfortable win over the Rebels. Again, this is a whole new challenge altogether and one they are simply not equipped to meet at this stage of the franchise's development. The Drua have only won win over and Australian or New Zealand franchise away from home to this point, and have been on some heavy defeats in the majority of those other contests. They have some brilliant individual players no doubt, and their scrum has come on in leaps and bounds this season, but they simply do not have a team performance in them that is capable of pushing the Blues at home.

Tip: Blues by 28.

Brumbies vs.

Highlanders

GIO Stadium, Canberra, 7:35pm [AEST]

Brumbies: Tom Wright, Andy Muirhead, Len Ikitau, Tamaita Tua, Corey Toole, Noah Lolesio, Ryan Lonergan; Charlie Cale, Jahrome Brown, Rob Valetini, Tom Hooper, Darcy Swain, Allan Alaalatoa, Billy Pollard, Harry Vella

Replacements: Liam Bowron, Rhys Van Nek, Sosefo Kautai, Nick Frost, Luke Reimer, Harrison Goddard, Jack Debreczeni, Ollie Sapsford

Highlanders: Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Tanielu Tele'a, Sam Gilbert, Jona Nareki, Cameron Millar, Folau Fakatava; Billy Harmon (co-c), Sean Withy, Oliver Haig, Fabian Holland, Mitch Dunshea, Jermaine Ainsley, Henry Bell, Ethan de Groot

Replacements: Jack Taylor, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Saula Ma'u, Max Hicks, Nikora Broughton, James Arscott, Jake Te Hiwi, Finn Hurley

Odds: [tab.com.au] Brumbies $1.11, -14.5 $1.95; Highlanders 6.20, +14.5 $1.85

Verdict: The closing game of the quarterfinals also represents the biggest other chance of a contest this weekend, though the Highlanders will need to improve significantly on last week's effort in Wellington. Clarke Dermody's side did however push the Brumbies for 60 minutes earlier this year, the caveat being that was under the roof at home in Dunedin. It is far cry from a freezing, and potentially wet, GIO Stadium in Canberra, where the Brumbies are unbeaten this year. One area where the Highlanders will look to apply pressure is the scrum, an area Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham has looked to bolster by inserting Tom Hooper into the second row ahead of Nick Frost. Harry Vella starts at loosehead prop meanwhile, with both James Slipper and Blake Schoupp out with injury. But if the Brumbies can solidify their set-piece, they simply should have too much strike power for Kiwis. Fullback Tom Wright is in career-best form, his partnership with Corey Toole growing week on week, while Charlie Cale adds an athletic dimension to the pack with Rob Valetini shifting back to No. 6. Look for the Highlanders to hang in the contest for 50-60 minutes, but the Brumbies superiority at home will wear them down and should see them book a semifinal spot with relative ease.

Tip: Brumbies by 15.