There's a simple equation for Indian shooting at Paris 2024 -- if India wants to reach the highly hoped for double-digit Olympic medal mark, it is imperative for the shooters to fire.
For two straight Olympics now, a celebrated contingent has drawn a shocking blank. Paris 2024 can either break the duck or be a hat trick of ducks.
The stakeholders in Indian shooting have brought in several changes to the system to avoid a dubious hat-trick.
This effort is reflected in India's numbers -- a record 21 shooters to the Games, which is the joint-biggest contingent long with heavyweights China. This is a jump from the 15 shooters at Tokyo and statistically increases medal chances.
It's also reflected in the strenuous selection strategy where the top five rifle and pistol shooters competed in a two-city, four-stage Olympic Selection Trials.
Will these tough calls and intense preparation prove to be the difference? Here's a closer look:
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First, who is in India's Olympic squad?
RIFLE
Men's 10m air rifle: Sandeep Singh, Arjun Babuta.
Women's 10m air rifle: Elavenil Valarivan, Ramita Jindal.
Women's 50m rifle 3 positions: Sift Kaur Samra, Anjum Moudgil.
Men's 50m rifle 3 positions: Aishwary Pratap Singh Tomar, Swapnil Kusale.
10m air rifle mixed team: Sandeep Singh/Elavenil Valarivan, Arjun Babuta/Ramita Jindal.
PISTOL
Men's 10m air pistol: Sarabjot Singh, Arjun Cheema.
Women's 10m air pistol: Manu Bhaker, Rhythm Sangwan.
Men's 25m rapid fire pistol: Anish Bhanwala, Vijayveer Sidhu.
Women's 25m pistol: Manu Bhaker, Esha Singh
10m air pistol mixed team: Sarabjot Singh/Manu Bhaker, Arjun Singh Cheema/Rhythm Sangwan.
SHOTGUN
Men's trap: Prithviraj Tondaiman.
Women's trap: Rajeshwari Kumari, Shreyasi Singh.
Men's skeet: Anantjeet Singh Naruka.
Women's skeet: Maheshwari Chauhan, Raiza Dhillon.
Skeet mixed team: Anantjeet Singh Naruka/Maheshwari Chauhan.
NOTE: India exchanged a quota place to include Shreyasi Singh as Manu Bhaker qualified in both women's pistol events.
What were those changed from Tokyo to Paris?
A quick recap of what happened (or didn't happen) at Tokyo. There were 15 Indian shooters, most of them in good touch pre-pandemic with a spate of international medals but only managed to reach a final -- Saurabh Chaudhary in 10m air pistol, finishing seventh among eight shooters.
The complete, collective collapse of a then record shooting contingent was attributed to a number of contradictory things -- lockdown and the long camp in Croatia to avoid the second Covid wave, too many World Cups and easier medals and too little preparation to peak, overconfidence and pressure... all augmented by clashes between personal, national, foreign coaches. That the Tokyo 2020 planning was done based on a review committee report after the Rio 2016 failure raised more questions.
Ahead of Paris 2024 though, the changes are more tangible. The number of competitions has reduced significantly, the coaching system is more streamlined, and the most important difference is the rigorous Olympic Selection Trials across May and June. It was a test of nerves and consistency, and many top shooters called the OST tougher than any international competition. It didn't matter if you were the quota winner or a former world champion, your scores were the only parameter.
The results threw up a few surprises (such the men's 10m air rifle team having the inexperienced Sandeep Singh over Olympian Divyansh Singh Panwar and former world champion Rudrankksh Patil) and some stunning numbers (such as Ramita's sensational 636.4, which is 0.1 more than the existing world record)
It also ensured that the final team for Paris was picked purely on recent form and scores.
How are India's chances... realistically?
That India has some of most talented, young shooters in the world is an established fact. The level of competition nationally is so high, that their numbers are automatically world class. These bring in big medals at the World Championships, Asian Games and the more frequent ISSF World Cups.
But the challenge, as seen at the last two Olympics, is to handle the pressure the biggest stage brings. Fittingly for a mental sport like shooting, it's all in the mind.
Most Indians shooters have not faced pressure like this before, and the weight of the last two Olympics is an added burden. Of the 21, only four have competed at the Games before -- Manu Bhaker, Elavenil Valarivan, Anjum Moudgil, Aishwary Pratap Singh Tomar -- and all of them have scar tissue from Tokyo to redeem at Paris.
The key will be managing this pressure, treating the qualification in Paris like any other competition. If they can handle the occasion, then the highest level of some of India's shooters does indeed translate to realistic medal chances.
The conversation around the shotgun squad is not as hopeful as they don't have the big international wins yet, but it should be noted that there is in Indian representation is every category this time, which is a step forward in women's shotgun.
How is their form guide?
The last time the Indian shooting contingent took part in a multi-discipline game -- the Asian Games last October -- they came back with a prolific haul and new champions.
Since then, they have been sporadically playing and medalling at international competitions. Interestingly, most of the Indian World Cup medallist this year (Bar Sift and Sarabjot) won't be in Paris.
The last World Cup before Olympics was soon after the trials and therefore saw mixed results, and even with mixed approaches from the Indians. Several chose not to shoot in the main section in the Ranking Points Only (RPO) and Manu skipped it entirely. India won two medals from five finals -- Sarabjot's pole-to-flag gold in the men's 10m air pistol and Sift's bronze in women's 50m rifle 3P. Babuta shot a superb 635.1, behind only the prodigious Sheng Lihao, but it was only in RPO.
They have since trained together in France and then trained individually for a few weeks before heading to Paris.
What is the competition going to be?
The competition will also be harder than at the Asian Games, where India did well against hosts China. European rifle shooters will be one of the biggest factors in the women's category, which is also a medal hopeful for India. China, as always, will be a big player across disciplines. The absence of Russian shooters due to IOC policy could prove to be a benefit in pistol shooting.
Who are India's best medal hopes?
It's hard to predict names after the last two Games' experiences but there are a few reliable bets.
Sift Kaur Samra is the reigning world record holder and Asian Games champion in 50m rifle 3 Positions, who beat China's reigning world champion to gold at Hangzhou. A former med student, her balanced and cerebral approach to the long-form version of shooting sets her apart. Anjum Moudgil, who had to rediscover her love for shooting after Tokyo heartbreak, is also in contention.
Manu Bhaker is the only Indian to be part of three events (10m air pistol, 25m air pistol, 10m mixed team), she has a chance to redeem herself after the emotional rollercoaster at Tokyo 2020. She has recelebrated since Tokyo, rejoined forced with former coach Jaspal Rana after an ugly, public fallout and qualified for her second Olympics at 22 years of age dealing with double the pressure at OST.
Sarabjot Singh, who will shoot with Manu in the mixed team event, is also a good shot for a medal after his Munich performance.
Pistol shooters Esha Singh and Arjun Singh Cheema have done well at the Asiad, which gives them the needed experience of the big stage and can be dark horses too.
Men's rifle, a prominent category for India, is a bit of a question mark at this point but can spring a surprise on a good day.
When and where will shooting be held?
The shooting competition will start on July 27 and go on till August 5, held at the Chateauroux range, which about 270 km away from Paris. This also means that Indian shooters will be away from the main Olympic village in the city.
The qualifications start at about noon India time and won't be broadcast, the finals will be in the afternoon with live coverage.
From an Indian perspective, shooting will be one of the earliest medal events - starting with the 10m air rifle mixed team final - and can set the tone for the rest of the Games.