So far at the Paris Games, it's been scary hours for opponents of the U.S. men's basketball team. Tuesday's 122-87 victory over Brazil in the quarterfinals was the third by 20-plus points in four games -- all wins -- for the star-studded Americans, the heavy favorites to claim their fifth consecutive gold medal.
But as we look ahead to Thursday's semifinal rematch against Serbia and beyond to a possible final against the winner of France-Germany, there's reason to fear the competition is about to get much tougher for Team USA.
The Americans routed Serbia in the opening game of pool play by virtue of a plus-26 margin in the 7¼ minutes that three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic rested. Expect fewer of those minutes with a medal at stake. Jokic played more than 38 minutes Tuesday as Serbia outlasted a tough Australia squad in overtime.
A year after winning the FIBA Basketball World Cup in the Philippines, Germany is in strong position to claim its first Olympic medal in men's basketball as the only other undefeated team in Paris. First, Germany must get past the host squad, France, which upset Canada in a quarterfinal result that should alarm the Americans.
Let's look at how Team USA has dominated so far, how it might stumble in the medal rounds and its biggest threat to winning gold.
Check out the numbers behind Team USA's dominant performance vs. Brazil in the quarterfinals.
Shooting, depth are carrying U.S.
Remarkably, the U.S. men have outscored their opponents through four games at these Olympics by only slightly more (plus-99) than their Tokyo Games counterparts (plus-96) entering the semifinals. Most of that differential in 2021 came from a 54-point victory over an outmatched Iran squad in pool play that followed an opening loss to France.
Although the U.S. doesn't have any win so lopsided this year, all four of its victories have come by at least 17 points, and the opener against Serbia was the only time the Americans haven't led by at least 19 at halftime.
By virtue of a deep talent pool, the U.S. men always have an advantage with their second units, and Steve Kerr's coaching staff has pushed that edge by using the bench heavily. Only LeBron James, at 20.5 minutes per game, ranks among the top 50 players in average playing time so far at the Paris Games.
The three other remaining teams in the tournament have four players who are each averaging more minutes, and only Serbia from that group has no player averaging at least 30 minutes -- with Bogdan Bogdanovic at 29.9 and Jokic at 29.8. That could work to the advantage of the Americans as the format shifts to games every other day during the knockout stage, after teams had two days off between games in the group stage.
It's common for Team USA's second unit to outshine the starters in terms of plus-minus because of the talent drop-off of their opponent's benches. That has gone to an extreme during these Games, during which Kevin Durant (plus-72) is the team's leader in this category off the bench, followed by fellow reserve Anthony Edwards (plus-65).
Shooting has been a strong point of the U.S. bench. Durant (10-of-16, 62.5%) and Edwards (10-of-20, 50%) are two of the three Americans shooting at least 50% from 3-point range on at least 10 makes; Devin Booker (10-of-16) is the other. As a result, Team USA has easily been the most accurate from the shorter FIBA 3-point line at 44% while making the most 3s (55) of any squad.
That's a big change from the two exhibition games that the U.S. men played in London, where they avoided scares from South Sudan and Germany. In those contests, the Americans combined for 13-of-45 in 3-point shooting (29%) as compared to 27 made 3s for their opponents. Those exhibitions and Canada's loss to France in the quarterfinals show how the U.S. men could still be vulnerable in the medal rounds.
Recipe for an upset
Entering Tuesday's quarterfinals, Canada looked like perhaps the biggest threat to Team USA. After beating a less talented American team for bronze at last summer's World Cup, Canada escaped the most difficult Olympic group unbeaten and boasted even more NBA talent with the addition of Jamal Murray to its World Cup core.
Meanwhile, the France men stood as perhaps the Games' biggest disappointment. They needed overtime to outlast a winless Japan team in pool play then lost by 14 points to Germany with a chance to win their group. France also lost the last four exhibition games prior to the Olympics, including to Canada by 12 points last month.
Over a seven-game series, Canada would have been a heavy favorite to advance, but in the one-and-done international format, France had a better chance to pull an upset. Taking advantage of more quickness and shooting with Rudy Gobert limited to 3:41 off the bench, France went 11-of-20 (55%) on 3s while Canada was 5-of-21 (24%). Add in France's 33-18 edge in points at the foul line and Canada is headed home without a medal.
During the Olympics, Team USA hasn't been on the wrong end of a make-or-miss game like Canada experienced. Instead, the Americans benefited from the cold 3-point shooting of Serbia (9-37 for 24.3%) in contrast with their own (18-of-32 for 56%), which turned what could have been a competitive matchup into a 26-point victory. If those percentages flipped, Serbia could make Thursday's semifinal more competitive.
The other most likely culprit if Team USA is to fall short of gold is the defensive glass. The Americans have gone 9-0 this summer despite having an advantage in rebound percentage during just three of those games -- exhibition wins over Australia and Serbia and Tuesday's quarterfinal against Brazil. South Sudan and Germany had 14 offensive rebounds apiece in close calls against the U.S. in exhibition play, and South Sudan did even better than that in the group stage, pulling down 16 offensive rebounds.
The Americans are more than capable of shooting well enough to overcome a rebounding deficit, but experiencing a big disadvantage on the boards against a more talented opponent could spell trouble.
Biggest threats to Team USA
By this stage of the Olympics, there are no easy matchups left. Germany and Serbia met in last year's World Cup final, and France played the U.S. tough in the gold medal game in Tokyo three years ago.
Intriguingly, Tuesday's upset of Canada felt like France and coach Vincent Collet evolving from the generation of stars -- led by Gobert and Evan Fournier -- that won bronze in the 2019 World Cup and silver in Tokyo. Fournier came off the bench against Canada in the name of better defense, though he still scored 15 points, including a crucial 3-pointer with the shot clock running down late in the game.
France's quarterfinal stars were the younger duo of guard Isaia Cordinier (20 points) and Guerschon Yabusele (22), with 20-year-old NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama adding 12 rebounds, five assists and three steals on a night when he shot just 2-of-10 from the field. I'm skeptical that formula would trouble Team USA, which has far more frontcourt options with size and athleticism to throw at Yabusele.
Instead, Germany looms as the more threatening finals matchup. Both my pre-Olympic rankings and betting markets were too low on the reigning world champs, who have proved just as potent against a stronger field of opponents this summer. Germany has won all four Olympic games by at least 13 points and done so without the benefit of hot 3-point shooting, making just 36% beyond the arc.
In World Cup MVP Dennis Schroder of the Brooklyn Nets and Franz Wagner of the Orlando Magic, Germany has two legitimate FIBA stars who are combining for 38.8 points per game and a set of reliable role players who fit well around them. Right now, Germany merits being considered the biggest threat to Team USA.
To face Germany, the Americans will first have to get past Serbia. Adding Jokic to the group that won silver at the World Cup hasn't gone as seamlessly as Serbia surely hoped, and it was noncompetitive against the U.S. before needing overtime to knock out Australia in a heavyweight quarterfinal matchup.
That said, it's possible we haven't yet seen Serbia's best game. If Jokic's minutes are extended in the semifinal and he and wing Marko Guduric find their touch after shooting a combined 3-of-32 from 3-point range thus far in the Olympics, there's still a realistic chance Serbia could upset Team USA and return to the gold medal game. Serbia lost to the Americans in Jokic's last Olympic appearance, in 2016.
If the U.S. is going to finish unbeaten en route to another gold, it will earn it against tough competition in the medal rounds.