What kind of impact can we expect on the 2023-24 NBA season from players participating in this summer's FIBA Basketball World Cup?
Inevitably, whatever happens to players after representing their nations in international play gets attributed to that experience. That can be positive, as in the case of Kevin Durant's breakthrough as a playoff superstar after leading the United States to victory in the 2010 World Championship (since renamed the World Cup) at age 21.
On the flip side, when players suffer through injury-plagued NBA seasons, this can be blamed on the fatigue of playing extra games over the summer. Both arguments are prone to confirmation basis because the notable cases are so much easier to remember than players who simply repeat the same NBA season after international play.
To get a better understanding of the impact international competitions have on NBA performance, I took a look back at players who competed in the major World Cup and Olympic games dating back to 2010. Let's take a look at what the results will tell us about Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the other stars who have played in the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Injury concerns?
It's true: Players do miss more games because of injury the season after participating in a major international competition than they did the year before. Of the 213 NBA players who saw at least 250 minutes of action in the season before the World Cup or Olympics since 2010 and returned to play at least 250 minutes the following campaign, the average is 10.4 games missed because of injury after international play as compared to 8.7 the season before.
Before we jump to any conclusions about the impact of the extra workload, however, it's worth remembering an important factor: healthy players tend to be far more likely to be chosen for their national teams -- particularly in the case of the USA's deep talent pool.
Just one U.S. player in this span missed more than 31 games because of injury the season before being selected: Derrick Rose on the 2014 World Cup roster. He played in the tournament after he missed the final 72 games of the 2013-14 season following meniscus surgery.
As a result, fluke injuries like Kevin Love fracturing the third and fourth metacarpal bones in his shooting hand after playing in the 2012 Olympics -- an injury that recurred midseason, eventually costing him 64 games -- are likely to cause the total to go up by random chance.
To come up with a better comparison group, then, we need to look at players who were similarly healthy the season before international competition and see what happened to them. For each player who participated in the World Cup or the Olympics, I found the player who did not and had the most similar previous season in terms of games played, minutes, points, rebounds, assists and blocks per game.
In Love's case, as an example, his most similar player in 2012 was Dwight Howard, who had played 54 games during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. (Love played 55.)
Across this control group, which was broadly similar in terms of age and ability, the average was 10.5 games missed the following season -- almost identical to the 10.4 players who saw international action during the summer averaged. The comparison group was also slightly more likely to miss at least 25 games due to injury the following season (13% vs. 11%).
Certainly, there's injury risk in any competitive game. My study did not include Paul George, who missed the first 76 games of the 2014-15 season after suffering a compound lower leg fracture in a scrimmage before the 2014 World Cup.
Danilo Gallinari missed the entire 2022-23 NBA campaign after an ACL tear that occurred in a World Cup qualifying game last summer. Still, the idea that players are prone to injury after international competition doesn't seem to be supported by evidence.
Taking the next step
Admittedly, I've been skeptical of the idea that playing international hoops over the summer would lead to improved performance the following season. After all, the storyline that Durant's FIBA star turn preceded his breakthrough is a little tortured. Durant had already averaged a league-high 30.1 PPG in 2009-10, earning All-NBA first team honors. It was Durant's team that took the next step in 2010-11, reaching the conference finals after losing their first playoff appearance in Oklahoma City to the Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round the season before.
Given that, I was a little surprised to find that there does appear to be an effect from playing for the USA in particular. Based on performance over the previous three seasons and the development of similar players at the same age, my SCHOENE projection system forecast U.S. players from 2010 through 2021 to average 2.1 points per 100 possessions better than league average the following season. As a group, they beat that by a full point, actually rating 3.1 points better than average.
There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for why this is a fluke. Non-USA players haven't derived the same benefit from international competition, while the control group used to study injuries rated almost exactly as expected the following season.
Besides the actual basketball experience, a key benefit of playing for the U.S. internationally is getting to train with some of the league's top players. Durant has spoken about seeing Kobe Bryant's work ethic while playing for the USA Select team ahead of the 2008 Olympics as a formative experience. It's not surprising playing a tournament with the U.S. would have more value than foreign national teams that tend to stay together for many years and aren't as deep in top talent.
It's interesting that Durant's 2010 has emerged as the poster child for the benefits of playing for the USA when one of his teammates in Turkey actually won MVP the following year: Rose, who made the biggest leap in terms of performance after playing for the U.S. as compared to his projection. Four years later, Stephen Curry jumped from All-NBA to his first MVP and championship after playing in the World Cup, while backcourt-mate Klay Thompson made a similar leap.
The odds are against anyone on this year's USA team following in their footsteps. Slovenia's Doncic and Canada's Gilgeous-Alexander are the most likely players in the World Cup to parlay that into an MVP campaign, but Edwards has gotten important experience as the go-to guy in important situations that should benefit the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The leaderboard illustrates playing for the U.S. seemed to convey the most benefit from 2010 through 2014, when even the younger World Cup rosters tended to be deeper in star talent and there was more continuity in the national team program. Still, every group of USA players has exceeded its projections on average the following season, offering hope that this year's team will bring lessons back to the NBA.