The 2025 NRL season has reached the finals and with injuries, suspensions and form all having a say, it is a wide open competition from here. With the Roosters in red hot form, it is not all that hard to imagine them going all the way from eighth. What are the Raiders hiding up their sleeves? What about those Broncos, missing their star halves they have still managed to finish in the Top 4. Do the Storm have too many out? The Bulldogs and Warriors appear to be in diabolical form. What of the Sharks and Panthers lurking in the lower half of the Top 8?
Anyone really can win the premiership. And yet, there's just as many compelling reasons why they can't.
Canberra Raiders
Why they CAN win the premiership
This is the best team in the NRL right now, without question. You can point at their soft draw and the lack of games against other top eight teams, but everyone who's been doing that seems to be ignoring the fact that when Canberra DID play the other finals-bound clubs, they beat almost all of them. Their recruitment and development over the past couple of seasons has got them into a position where they have elite depth in almost every position, and are easily the club best-suited to lose a star player and still be a title contender. It's been a long time since 1994, but this might just be the year it all clicks.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
Canberra are such a unique proposition in the sense that they are better than anyone in the league at off the cuff, second phase play and having an insane ability to create points in situations that seem hopeless, just through sheer effort. But if you look at three of their wins against those top teams - namely the games against the Storm, Panthers, and Sharks - all three were incredible last-play victories in a game that looked 99 percent as though it was going to end in defeat for Ricky Stuart's men. Is that sustainable? Probably not, but I would have said that after the first or second time it happened only for it to happen again anyway.
Melbourne Storm
Why they CAN win the premiership
After a rough fortnight, Harry Grant is back and before his suspension he was arguably in the best form of his career. The aerial route to Xavier Coates has become a cheat code with teams simply unable to contend with him due to the rule changes on tackling people in the air, and Eli Katoa is the best backrower in the game at the moment. Cameron Munster would be right at the top of anyone's list in terms of the most influential players in the NRL, and they'll get two home games which is vital at this stage of the year.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
The loss of Jahrome Hughes might be just too much for a Storm team that's already relying on their world-class spine to elevate everyone around them. Their attack hasn't been as slick in the last few weeks as it was earlier in the season and to make matters worse, there'll be no Ryan Papenhuyzen for week one, who failed his HIA. Nelson Asofa-Solomona has certainly been more of a detriment than a positive for them this year but even so, his aggression and physicality is something they sorely need in an otherwise pretty unremarkable middle forward group.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Why they CAN win the premiership
Despite limping down the stretch and losing four of their last six, it was only a few weeks ago that Canterbury ran up a massive score against the Sea Eagles and looked like bonafide title contenders. They were energetic, creative on both sides of the field and found a perfect balance of where to attack, and when. Even in the loss against the Melbourne Storm I came away from that game being very impressed with the Bulldogs, who only narrowly lost despite bombing two or three tries. With no Hughes or Papenhuyzen this weekend they'll fancy their chances in a rematch at the same venue, and from there, with a home prelim in front of a massive crowd, anything can happen.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
A team that was just outworking and overwhelming everyone they played in the first half of the season looks like they've run out of steam, and ideas. It's not Lachlan Galvin's fault by any means, but the disruption that the entire saga created could have so easily been avoided just by signing him for 2026. I can respect wanting to make some tweaks to your attack to try and generate more points, but it looks like they've completely overcooked the situation with their spine. Maybe all of the changes will click and Cameron Ciraldo will look like a genius, but it's tough to see that happening.
Brisbane Broncos
Why they CAN win the premiership
When the Broncos are at their best, there's no team that can match their ability to score points in bunches and overwhelm an opponent before anyone even realises what's happened. Reece Walsh is the most important player on this, or any finals team, and his energy and never-say-die attitude inspires everyone around him. I've never understood any of the negative press around him, especially when it comes to his on-field exploits. Where Walsh goes, so do the Broncos - and if he can play like he did on Thursday night for another month, a premiership is definitely within Brisbane's grasp.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
Payne Haas is close to incapable of bad games, but if he gets no support from their other forwards, particularly Patrick Carrigan, then there's no platform for all of their star playmakers to do their thing - and just on that forward pack, their edge defence has been dicey all year. The reason I love watching the Broncos is for the most part, they won't die wondering. That's great when it comes off, but there's been multiple games this year where a more conservative approach while trailing would have yielded better results. To put it simply; if they play like they're down by 18 with two minutes to go when it's actually a one-score game with 20 minutes left, bad things can happen. There's also question marks as to how Adam Reynolds comes back into the team and how that will affect team chemistry with everything looking like a well-oiled machine at the moment.
Cronulla Sharks
Why they CAN win the premiership
Stability has been the name of the game for Cronulla all year long, with one of the most settled squads in the league. Barring the arrival of Addin Fonua-Blake, everyone else has been there for multiple years and they've had very few injury issues this year. They know how they want to play and they know that with how wide open the title race is in 2025, that this is their best chance to break through that glass ceiling. That win over the Bulldogs, their first against the top eight in months, will give them a massive confidence boost - even if there was nothing at stake on Saturday.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
Their record against the top teams is well documented, both in the regular season and September. Despite finishing second, sixth, fourth, and now fifth during Craig Fitzgibbon's tenure, they have just one finals win. They have had some incredible luck with the unprecedented move by the NRL to downgrade Nicho Hynes' dangerous contact charge based on a report from the Bulldogs that the injury to Marcelo Montoya wasn't as bad as first thought. Hynes is key to the Sharks progressing into the second week of the finals.
New Zealand Warriors
Why they CAN win the premiership
They will get a massive lift from playing in front of a sold out home crowd this weekend and the morale boost from being the first team to eliminate Penrith from the NRL season in five years would be something. It's difficult to make a serious case for them, but with James Fisher-Harris leading from the front, it's possible. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been sensational in recent weeks, even if the teams' results don't indicate as much. Despite their lack of form, most of this team was here for the deep finals run in 2023 and so they know what's expected of them.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
If any of the top eight truly look like cannon fodder right now, it's the Warriors. They had the spirit ripped out of them with that Luke Metcalf injury, who was well on his way to a potential Dally M-winning season. Throw in Origin enforcer Mitch Barnett to boot at that's two guys you simply can't replace. This was a team that looked locked into a top four spot only a few weeks ago, but now they're running on fumes, and barely held on to sixth. And even then, that wouldn't have happened if Penrith hadn't rested players a fortnight ago. The last time they beat a top eight team was June 7th, a full three months ago.
Penrith Panthers
Why they CAN win the premiership
Do I need to explain why a team that's won every premiership since the Playstation 5 was released can win the comp? They've lost an absolute bucket load of players in this reign at the top but as long as they've got Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Brian To'o, they've got a chance. Isaiah Papalii has really come on in the second half of the season and that McLean/Jenkins combo on the left is one most potent in football.
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
Dylan Edwards has been Mr Reliable at the back for so long, but has really struggled in recent weeks with 12 handling errors in his last five games. We know how great Edwards can be, and there's a reason why he's been one of the few constants on this five-year journey that Penrith have been on. But other than that, while it is impressive how they've managed to re-tool and go again after having their roster pillaged every off-season, this is the first year where you look at the forward pack and don't immediately assume they're going to hold their own against whoever they play.
Sydney Roosters
Why they CAN win the premiership
Have we ever had an eighth-placed team that so many people are viewing as a legitimate contender? The first half of the year was brutal, but since Sam Walker returned, their attack has gone to another level and there's no team that will fancy their chances in a shootout more. Combine that with James Tedesco turning in Dally M-winning performances each week, and the white hot Mark Nawaqanitawase pulling off awe-inspiring feats on the right wing - who can stop them?
Why they CAN'T win the premiership
We've seen the best of the Roosters in recent wins against Souths, Melbourne and the Dolphins, but we also saw their absolute worst when they were upset by the Eels a couple of weeks ago and made more than 20 errors. While they may have the highest ceiling of any team (along with Brisbane), the Roosters easily have the lowest floor and it only takes one bad game for their season to end.