New South Wales dominated Queensland in Brisbane to take the series opener, the Maroons made some drastic changes and bounced back to defeat the Blues in Perth. Now the series is set to be decided in Sydney.
Queensland have dragged Josh Papali'i out of retirement, hoping to gain an edge in the forwards, while the Blues have remained faithful to the line-up that lost in Perth. Glory or misery, it all comes down to this.
Wednesday, July 9
State of Origin, Game III
New South Wales vs. Queensland
Accor Stadium, Sydney, 8:05pm (AEST)
New South Wales: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Max King 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Stefano Utoikamanu Reserves: 18. Jacob Kiraz 19. Lindsay Smith 20. Bradman Best
Coach: Laurie Daley
Queensland: 1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Tom Dearden 8. Josh Papali'i 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Trent Loiero Bench: 14. Kurt Mann 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai Reserves: 18. Reece Walsh 19. J'maine Hopgood 20. Josh Kerr
Coach: Billy Slater
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Dave Munro, Chris Sutton Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: Given a dry track and a fair share of penalties, this series would already be decided. The Blues have looked by far the better team in all but 40 minutes of this year's Origin series. Too many errors and a mountain of possession in Queensland's favour saw the Blues lose the first half of Game II in Perth. They came storming back after the break only to be denied by the fabled Maroons spirit, in combination with the clock.
Going into this decider, Queensland have lost fullback Kalyn Ponga to a foot injury and surprisingly overlooked the obvious solution. Instead of selecting Reece Walsh at No.1 and leaving Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow on the wing, they have moved the Dolphins flyer to his preferred position and will have Gehamat Shibasaki make his Origin debut in the centres. What better way to combat two of the best centres in the business than to throw another rookie at them? It has worked so far with Robert Toia.
It is in the engine room where the most talked about Maroons change has been made with veteran prop Josh Papali'i dragged out of retirement for one final Origin hurrah. We have all seen this movie before, an Origin legend dragged back in for one last shot at glory, and it has generally been the stuff of fairytales. Can Papali'i be a force again at the highest level? He has certainly been doing the job at club level with the ladder-topping Raiders, but we know Origin is different. His clash with Payne Haas will at the very least shake the foundations of Accor Stadium.
The Blues have left their squad untouched from Game II, which in itself carries several concerns. Brian To'o seems to be the player under the biggest injury cloud, but it must be remembered that both Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai are also battling niggling injuries of their own. Will they make it through the intensity of a decider in front of a roaring home crowd?
If the injury concerns don't play a part in the game, if the referee has a good night, and if the skies remain clear, the Blues really should win this. But, Origin is never easy to pick and the players will be well aware of the Queensland spirit they will face. With Cameron Munster sadly losing his father during the week, the Maroons will have another immeasurable boost to their inner strength as they all get around their teammate and dedicate their efforts to the Munster family. Being Queenslanders alone makes them tough enough to beat, without the added motivation.
Tip: Blues by 20
PointsBet odds: Blues $1.38 (-8.5 $1.95) Maroons $3.10 (+8.5 $1.85)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.