The 2025 NRL season has so far been one of the toughest ever for tippers and now with State of Origin underway it hasn't gotten any easier. Tipping all the winners each weekend is near impossible, so we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.
The sure thing
Melbourne Storm vs. Cronulla Sharks, AAMI Park, Sunday June 29, 2pm (AEST)
If the Dolphins couldn't beat the Knights last week, then I really don't know what a "sure thing" is anymore. Nevertheless, I will have another crack. Whenever the tipping confidence is dented, the best remedy is to go to for the Storm at home.
Last week the Storm started like a house on fire against the Rabbitohs, with back-to-back tries in the opening minutes. Instead of the Storm running away with it, the Rabbitohs stepped up and engaged them in a real grind of a match, which was ultimately decided by a golden point field goal.
The Sharks also started like winners last week, running in tries seemingly at will against the Broncos. They extended their lead to 16 points with an early try in the second half, but from there they completely fell apart as the Broncos charged back into the game. Their defensive resolve was completely absent as they rolled over and capitulated.
Having said all that, they are just as likely to go to Melbourne and beat the Storm by 20 points. But, there is no way I am going to tip them, with the Storm the closest thing to a sure thing this weekend.
Round 17 sure thing: Storm
The toss of the coin
Brisbane Broncos vs. New Zealand Warriors, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday June 28, 3pm (AEST)
There are a number of games this week which could be considered a toss of the coin. Panthers vs. Bulldogs could go either way, Sea Eagles vs. Tigers is anyone's guess, Rabbitohs vs Dolphins, Titans vs Cowboys, seriously. But the Broncos at home to the Warriors is the one I am suggesting is the toughest to pick.
The Broncos were back to their brilliant best in the second half against the Sharks last week. Mind you, it came after an ordinary first half and terrible performances in the weeks prior. The Warriors, on the other hand, have been travelling along very well and were expected to make short work of the depleted Panthers last week at home. They instead reverted to all of their bad habits and were simply out-enthused by the young Penrith side.
The best way to pick the winner in this game is to wipe your mind of what happened last week. Remember instead that the Broncos are struggling and the Warriors are flying and simply hope that Round 16 was an anomaly.
Toss of the coin game winner: Warriors
The roughie
Dolphins vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday June 28, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Dolphins were on an incredible run until last week's inexplicable loss to the Knights. The Rabbitohs have been improving and have been right in their recent losses to premiership top weights the Bulldogs and Storm.
If the Dolphins are legitimate finals hopes, they should bounce back to win this game at home. But if, as I now suspect, they are pretenders who just had a good run, they might find the Rabbitohs a tough challenge.
The Rabbitohs just need to put together a solid 80 minutes of football and they could knock the Dolphins over. They are certainly worth consideration if you are looking for value this weekend.
Round 17 roughie: Rabbitohs