New South Wales head to Brisbane for the State of Origin opener with the shield in their possession and determined not to give it up. The Maroons have made some surprise selections, but also welcome back star Cameron Munster who was out injured last year.
One thing is certain, Queensland will not go down without an almighty fight, they never do. We preview State of Origin I, and determine where it will be won and lost.
Wednesday, May 28
State of Origin, Game I
Queensland vs. New South Wales
Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm (AEST)
Queensland: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan Bench: 14. Tom Dearden 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Beau Fermor 17. Trent Loiero Reserves: 18. Kurt Mann 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
Coach: Billy Slater
New South Wales: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To'o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Mitchell Barnett 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo Bench: 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Max King Reserves: 18. Campbell Graham 19. Stefano Utoikamanu 20. Haumole Olakau'atu
Coach: Laurie Daley
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: Dave Munro, Phil Henderson Bunker: Chris Butler
Prediction: State of Origin rolls around again after New South Wales nabbed the shield last year by winning Games II and III under the tutelage of coach Michael Maguire. Maguire has moved on to coach the Brisbane Broncos, with Laurie Daley stepping back into the role. Daley had a rough time of it in his last stint as he battled to find an end to the Queensland dominance built on the back of their star-studded line-up. The share of talent appears to be more level these days, if not tilted in the Blues' favour, but it will be up to Daley to make sure his team can overcome that intangible Queenslander spirit.
FORWARDS
We all know that the big games are won in the engine room and the Blues have an impressive front-row rotation. They have picked Warriors prop Mitchell Barnett to start alongside Payne Haas who has been Brisbane's best player so far this season. When those two need a breather they have the explosive Spencer Leniu ready to cause havoc up the middle of the field. The shock bench selection was Max King, the hardworking prop who might not have the intimidation factor of the others, but has been the backbone of the Bulldogs pack this year.
Backing up the big men for the Blues will be one of the sharpest back-row trios in the game, with Liam Martin, Angus Crichton and Isaah Yeo all Origin and Test veterans, who have never let their state or country down. Off the bench comes edge forward Hudson Young, who is in sublime form for the Raiders. Putting aside King's inexperience at this level and Leniu's ability to totally lose control, the Blues look formidable.
They will need to get the better of the Maroons pack, which itself looks pretty impressive. Up front Tino Fa'asuamaleaui is partnered by Moeaki Fotuaika, both big metre-eaters who are always difficult to stop. They only have the one genuine prop on the bench in Lindsay Collins, but Reuben Cotter in the second row and Pat Carrigan at lock are both familiar with the front row position and adept at making the hard yards up the middle when required.
Add to them the fleet-footed, more creative dangers of edge runners Jeremiah Nanai, and Beau Fermor and Trent Loiero off the bench, and you can see it is a fairly even contest.
BACKS
New South Wales have selected two of the most destructive ball-running centres in the league in Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton. Given enough early ball with enough space to work, they are going to prove to be a handful for the Queensland defence. To finish off anything they might set up, they have two of the game's better wingers in Brian To'o and Zac Lomax.
Queensland also have one of the game's most destructive ball-runners in the centres, with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at least the equal of the Blues pair. In the other centre position, marking up on Mitchell, will be 10-game Roosters rookie Robert Toia. Coach Billy Slater believes the youngster is ready-made for Origin, but his defensive skills will surely be tested in the rugby league's toughest arena. He has been deemed good enough to push veteran centre Valentine Holmes to the wing, where he will no doubt continue to prove a handful for the Blues defence. On the other wing is the league's premier finisher Xavier Coates, whose aerial ability will no doubt come into play at some point.
SPINES
Queensland go into Game I with a well-established, very experienced spine. Harry Grant, Daly Cherry-Evans, Cameron Munster and Kalyn Ponga would be mentioned amongst the greatest representative spines ever assembled. On their day any of the four could completely dominate a game, and put together they have a familiarity that ensures calmness at the height of the most manic of Origin moments. Ponga has had an ordinary start to the season, by his standards, with the feckless Knights. Similarly the hot-and-cold Sea Eagles haven't done DCE's form any favours. Harry Grant has only been back one game from injury, hardly the perfect preparation for the rigours of State of Origin. Munster has been back to his conniving best with the Storm, but did miss last year's Origin. Still, on paper, the Queensland spine has the edge over the Blues.
New South Wales have stuck with Reece Robson at hooker after his solid performances in last year's winning series. He has been quietly going about his business for the Cowboys, who have had a mixed start to their season. Nathan Cleary retains his crown as the league's premier halfback, but the Panthers have been a shell of themselves this year. Still anything good they have achieved so far has had Cleary's hands all over it. Mitchell Moses, the winning halfback from last year's Origin series, has been squeezed into the five-eighth position, where he used to stand at the Tigers many moons ago. Making the two halves work together successfully is one of the Blues' greatest challenges. If they somehow click and both have the opportunity to work their magic, the Blues will be well on their way to victory. At fullback is Dylan Edwards who knocked James Tedesco off his fullback throne last year. Edwards is working his way back to form after missing a chunk of the season with injury.
Experience is a massive asset in Origin. The Maroons go into this series with a seasoned spine, with the electric Tom Dearden waiting on the bench should any of them need replacing. The Blues have a new combination, untried under pressure. They have Connor Watson ready to step into the action when the need arises. Both No.14s have the potential to tear open the game against tiring forwards.
Overall, the Maroons have the advantage of experience and well-established familiarity, as well as the famous home crowd. If their outside backs can contain the Blues' double threat, they have enough weapons of their own to win Game I.
Tip: Maroons by 8
PointsBet odds: Maroons $2.15 (+2.5 $1.90) Blues $1.68 (-2.5 $1.90)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.