The 2025 NRL season is set to once again be challenging for tippers. There has been some key player movements during the offseason as clubs look to turn their fortunes around or maintain their dominance. Tipping eight winners each weekend is going to be near impossible, so each week we'll give you some extra help with three standout games.
The sure thing
Penrith Panthers vs. Brisbane Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, Sunday May 4, 4:05pm (AEST)
This could well be the most difficult round to pick a "sure thing" out of any so far this season. Even the few games which you think should be easy to decide, are set to be influenced by suspensions and injuries.
So, having not picked the Panthers correctly all season, I am going to do the unthinkable and suggest that I am almost certain that they will not win this weekend. It might seem like absolute madness to tip against the champions, but they continue to prove each week that they are far from that champion team. Against the Sea Eagles last week, they were rattled early and their timing and communication continued to fall well short of what we expect from them.
The Broncos on the other hand put on a masterly display of football against the previously unbeaten Bulldogs. Veteran halfback Adam Reynolds was incredible, his kicking game near perfect, and his forwards and backs combined to continually carve up the much vaunted Bulldogs' defence.
Of course the Panthers could throw more egg in my face, but I think the Broncos are as close to sure things this weekend as any other team playing Magic Round.
Magic Round sure thing: Broncos
The toss of the coin
New Zealand Warriors vs. North Queensland Cowboys, Suncorp Stadium, Saturday May 3, 5:30pm (AEST)
The "toss of a coin" game this week could be any number of Magic Round match-ups. I mean, who can say with any certainty who will get the better of the Roosters-Dolphins, the Storm-Raiders or the Tigers-Dragons games? The way this season has been going, almost every game, almost every weekend, might best be picked by tossing up a coin.
Last week the Warriors were too good for the Knights without ever shifting out of second gear. They appear to have their defence better organised this year, are always dangerous in attack, and have worked on their ball security issues from previous campaigns. They are very difficult to dominate in the forwards and thereby enjoy attacking against back-pedalling defenders. This weekend they will be determined to maintain contact with the pointy end of the NRL ladder.
The Cowboys started last week well, before allowing the Titans to run all over them in the final 30 minutes of the first half. The break couldn't come soon enough and North Queensland ran out for the second half a completely different team. The Titans' defence was left scattered to the winds as Cowboys ran in seven unanswered tries. At their best the Cowboys are a formidable team, but they still have defensive lapses.
Can the Warriors continue their impressive season or will the Cowboys skip ahead of them on the premiership ladder?
Toss of the coin game winner: Warriors
The roughie
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks vs. Parramatta Eels, Suncorp Stadium, Friday May 2, 6pm (AEST)
The Sharks were frustrated by the swarming defence of the Tigers last week and just couldn't get their act together long enough to claim victory. It was a disappointing performance from a side that can look like world beaters one week and real strugglers the next. Halves Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall can look like champions one week and have missing persons reports put out on them the next. They will surely bounce back for this clash and have been heavily supported in betting.
The Eels had last week off, but the week before they welcomed back star halfback Mitchell Moses and he made a world of difference to their entire game. In defence they rallied to protect their goal line with a desperation not seen all season. In attack they played off the deft organisation and passing skills of Moses and positionally they enjoyed his dominant kicking game. The Tigers simply had no answers.
This should be a Sharks victory to start Magic Round, but if you are looking for a roughie, the Eels could be the team for you.
Magic Round roughie: Eels