There are just six rounds of the 2024 NRL season remaining and the races for the Top 4 and Top 8 are far from being decided. Here's your guide to how the rest of the season should pan out.
Top 4 hopefuls
Melbourne Storm
Points: 36
Differential: 159
Run home: Dragons (H), Rabbitohs (A), Panthers (A), Dolphins (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (A)
Predicted finish: Minor Premiers
The Storm sit comfortably atop the premiership ladder, with a two-win lead over nearest rival Penrith. The pair meet in Round 24 which should not only be a fantastic game, it will tell us a lot about how the rest of the season will pan out. After the Panthers, the Storm face an all-Queensland run home and the motivation levels for those teams will be based on how they go in the coming weeks. Still, it is hard to see the Storm dropping points to anyone other than the Panthers and they should coast towards collecting another J.J. Giltnan Shield.
Penrith Panthers
Points: 32
Differential: 154
Run home: Knights (H), Eels (A), Storm (H), Raiders (A), Rabbitohs (H), Titans (H)
Predicted finish: 2nd
The Panthers made it through the Origin period relatively unscathed, with a knee injury to fullback Dylan Edwards their main concern. They also welcomed back Nathan Cleary from injury and he has picked up where he left off. Aside from the pivotal game against the Storm, there does not appear to be a team capable of beating them over the run home. However, with the Storm having a two-win advantage, there doesn't appear to be enough losses in their future for Penrith to catch them.
Sydney Roosters
Points: 28
Differential: 213
Run home: Dolphins (A), BYE, Eels (H), Titans (A), Raiders (H), Rabbitohs (A)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Whenever the Roosters have looked like true premiership threats, they seem to slip up and lose a very winnable game. They certainly haven't been able to beat either of the teams above them on the ladder. Depending on the relative desperation of the Titans and Raiders, this looks like a relatively comfortable run home, once they get past the Dolphins who will be a challenge at home.
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
Points: 28
Differential: 117
Run home: Rabbitohs (H), Titans (A), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Predicted finish: 4th
The Sharks started the season on fire winning eight of their first nine games, losing only to the Tigers. They were then smacked by the Panthers and have been on wobbly legs ever since, losing four of their next six. Whether or not they remain in the Top 4 depends upon them finding the consistency from the early part of the season. If the Knights, Dragons and Sea Eagles are still in the running, they could all cause the Sharks problems and you just never know what the Warriors are going to produce.
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Points: 26
Differential: 88
Run home: Raiders (H), Dragons (A), Dolphins (H), Warriors (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H)
Predicted finish: 6th
The Bulldogs have already exceeded the expectations of their fans for season 2024, anything from here is a bonus and against the Broncos the players played as though they have free pass to try their luck. You could make a case for them winning every one of the last six games, such is their confidence and steadfast defence. Conversely you could make an equally good case for the wheels falling off and them losing most of them. Defence wins the big games and every game is big from here on in.
North Queensland Cowboys
Points: 26
Differential: 11
Run home: Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Raiders (H), BYE, Storm (H), Bulldogs (A)
Predicted finish: 7th
The Cowboys have a reasonable run home, apart from meeting the Storm. On their day you wouldn't count them out of winning any of these games. Problem is, they can run hot and cold, even within games, as they showed last night in allowing the 12-man Tigers to more than double their score in the final 30 minutes at Leichhardt Oval. The Broncos, Storm and Bulldogs present their biggest hurdles, but if they want to play finals football, these are the teams they have to prove themselves against.
Top 8 hopefuls
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Points: 25
Differential: 93
Run home: BYE, Raiders (A), Warriors (H), Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A), Sharks (H)
Predicted finish: 5th
The Sea Eagles start this run home effectively on 27 points thanks to the bye, which would see them in fifth position without kicking a ball. Their run home includes three games away from fortress Brookvale, all of which are winnable. They do face the Bulldogs and Sharks in their last two games and if the Sharks have stumbled in the lead up, wins could see the Sea Eagles slip into a Top 4 berth.
Dolphins
Points: 24
Differential: 39
Run home: Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Storm (A), Broncos (H), Knights (A)
Predicted finish: 8th
The Dolphins face a horror run home and have been very inconsistent of late. If anyone can guide them to their first ever finals appearance it should be coach Wayne Bennett, but there are arguably four games out of six where they could face a more favoured opposition. Still if they get their act together they can just about beat anyone, including the Storm.
Canberra Raiders
Points: 24
Differential: -71
Run home: Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (A), Dragons (A)
Predicted finish: 11th
The Raiders have THE toughest run home of any of the Top 8 contenders. Their already awful for-and-against looks set to take a pounding as well, so they desperately need to win the majority of these games. I just can't see them doing it.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Points: 24
Differential: -92
Run home: Storm (A), Bulldogs (H), Titans (H), Sharks (H), Eels (A), Raiders (H)
Predicted finish: 10th
The Dragons are in a similar position to the Raiders in that they have a poor for-and-against and a relatively tough run home. They really need strong showings against the Storm and Bulldogs to start this run, otherwise their season is likely to fade away.
Newcastle Knights
Points: 22
Differential: -97
Run home: Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H)
Predicted finish: 9th
The Knights have had periods during the season when they have looked deserving of a run in the finals and at other times, not so much. They have Kalyn Ponga back at fullback, but haven't really fired since his return. They need to put in a strong performance against the Panthers this weekend.
Top 8 Mathematicals
New Zealand Warriors
Points: 21
Differential: -22
Run home: Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Sea Eagles (A), Bulldogs (H), Sharks (A), BYE
Predicted finish: 12th
At least the Warriors have a healthier for-and-against on their side as they battle to make their way back into the Top 8. They have been so unpredictable this season, and they face four other Top 8 teams on their run home. They would have to be back to their very best to play finals football this year, something that was considered a certainty when the season started.
Brisbane Broncos
Points: 20
Differential: 0
Run home: Titans (A), Cowboys (A), BYE, Eels (H), Dolphins (A), Storm (H)
Predicted finish: 13th
The Broncos have had a very disappointing year marked by injuries to key players. They were completely outplayed by the Bulldogs last week in a game they really needed to win. They can still play finals football, but their form has been awful even with Adam Reynold back from injury. They face two Queensland rivals first up, both will be keen to consign the Broncos to the scrap heap for 2024, and if they don't, the Storm surely will.
Gold Coast Titans
Points: 20
Differential: -82
Run home: Broncos (H), Sharks (H), Dragons (A), Roosters (H), Knights (A), Panthers (A)
Predicted finish: 14th
The Titans started the season very slowly, but Des Hasler has them moving in the right direction as they prove to be a thorn in the side of many teams. Can they win enough games to make the finals? It is not out of the question.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Points: 20
Differential: -110
Run home: Sharks (A), Storm (H), Tigers (A), Knights (H), Panther (A), Roosters (H)
Predicted finish: 15th
The Rabbitohs' revival looked to have hit a wall with the injury to fullback Latrell Mitchell. Their run home is way too tough and many of the players look like they have already switched off to await the arrival of coach Wayne Bennett next year.