New South Wales head to Brisbane with an air of confidence about them, having made short work of the Queenslanders in Melbourne. Anyone with the slightest knowledge of this incredible series will know that winning a decider in Brisbane is an almost impossible task for New South Wales, no matter how confident they may be.
Wednesday, July 17
State of Origin, Game III
Queensland vs. New South Wales
Suncorp Stadium, 8:05pm (AEST)
Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2 Selwyn Cobbo 3 Dane Gagai 4 Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5 Valentine Holmes 6 Tom Dearden 7 Daly Cherry-Evans 15 Moeaki Fotuaika 14 Harry Grant 16 Felise Kaufusi 11 Kurt Capewell 12 Jeremiah Nanai 13 Patrick Carrigan Bench: 8 Reuben Cotter 9 Ben Hunt 10 Lindsay Collins 17 Kalyn Ponga Reserves: 18 Trent Loiero
New South Wales: 1 Dylan Edwards 2 Brian To'o 3 Bradman Best 4 Stephen Crichton 5 Zac Lomax 6 Jarome Luai 7 Mitchell Moses 8 Jake Trbojevic 9 Reece Robson 10 Payne Haas 11 Liam Martin 12 Angus Crichton 13 Cameron Murray Bench: 14 Connor Watson 15 Isaah Yeo 16 Mitchell Barnett 17 Spencer Leniu Reserves: 18 Matt Burton
Officials
Referee: Ashley Klein Touchies: David Munro, Chris Sutton Bunker: Grant Atkins
Prediction: Everything went perfectly to plan for the Blues in Melbourne, from the opening whistle, right up until they trudged off for oranges after 40 minutes. They had all of the possession, they played relatively mistake-free rugby league and they blew the Maroons off the park with slick interplay on the back of forward dominance. The new additions to the team, led by Mitchell Moses, Latrell Mitchell and Dylan Edwards fit effortlessly into place, and lifted the Blues performance to an unstoppable level.
With a greater share of the ball, the Maroons fought back after the break to bring some respectability to the scoreline and give them something to work with ahead of the decider in Brisbane. What will be weighing most on the minds of the Maroons players and their staff is that they were out-muscled at the MCG, knocked about and beat up. Unabashed Blues fan Phil Gould described the first half as boys playing men, and that will stick firmly in the craw of everyone north of the Tweed River. Queenslanders might lose a game occasionally, but they seldom lose the physical battle. They may be outplayed, but they are never out-enthused. They KNOW what Origin means and it is all about giving your everything for the jersey. They won't take the way they lost Game II very well and they won't repeat the capitulation on their home turf.
Queensland go into the decider with a couple of key changes, with Kalyn Ponga returning on the bench, Dane Gagai back in the centres, Selwyn Cobbo on the wing and Kurt Capewell moving off the bench to replace Jaydn Su'a in the pack. Gagai has been solid at club level for the Knights, and this is a massive step up, but he has been there many times before and rarely lets Queensland down. Ponga is only one NRL game back from a lengthy injury break and it wasn't a very impressive return for the Knights against the Raiders. Queensland are banking on his undoubted talent returning to full power in the maroon-coloured jersey.
The Blues head into the decider without their most potent strike weapon, with Latrell Mitchell out injured. His replacement Bradman Best showed he can handle Origin in his only appearance last year. He is a hard running threat out wide, but he is not Mitchell. Onto the bench comes Warriors work-horse Mitchell Barnett who replaces Haumole Olakau'atu.
This game is going to involve some next level intensity as Queensland will be determined to equal the ferocity of the New South Wales defence. The Blues won't have their own way as they did in Melbourne, this will be a much tougher task. If Mitchell was playing it would be very hard to tip against them, his absence takes an edge off the Blues' attack. Still, if Moses can be as dominant as he was in the first half of Game II and the Blues' pack can manage a better than even return in the middle of the field, New South Wales just might hold the State of Origin Shield aloft in front of the Suncorp Stadium crowd.
Tip: Blues by 8
PointsBet odds: Maroons $1.85 (-1.5 $1.95) Blues $1.95 (+1.5 $1.85)
All odds correct at time of publication. Check pointsbet.com.au for the latest.