There are few sports that provide as rich and diverse a development pool as hockey does. As a global sport, there are so many routes for players to take on their way to the NHL. There's no real "right way" to get to there. If a player is good enough, it's almost impossible for him to slip through the cracks, and if someone is not found in his draft year, there's always free agency for the late bloomers. One way or another, the best players get there.
But what are the most-traveled routes? Which leagues and teams produce the top prospects? We looked at 15 years of data to find the most common prospect tracks for NHL talent. To get a pool of players to look at, we first eliminated anyone draft-eligible before 2005. Then we set the following criteria for inclusion:
A forward who registered at least 0.5 points per game in his career (minimum 82 games)
A defenseman who averaged 19 or more minutes (minimum 82 games)
A goaltender who made a minimum of 62 career appearances
That provided a list of 286 players -- from Sidney Crosby to Rasmus Dahlin -- with only a few who I'd subjectively term as outliers. The goal was to provide a snapshot of players you could easily say provided a measurable impact to their team, as a relatively consistent offensive producer, top-four defenseman or starting goalie. Let's look at where those top NHL talents came from.
Note: As a caveat to all of this, players move around after their draft, so there is room for debate for which teams get to lay claim for actually developing the talent. Statistics come directly from the NHL's website, and the teams and leagues utilized in this report are those provided by the NHL's draft records database.
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Top countries and leagues
It's not shocking that 148 players, or nearly 52% of 286 players who meet the criteria, were first-round draft picks. Nearly 41% of the players (117) were selected in Rounds 2-7, and 7% (21) were never drafted. It's perhaps less shocking that 121 of the 286 players are Canadian, leading the way in nationalities.
One trend worth keeping an eye on is the rise of Finland. Eleven of the 14 Finns who entered our list were drafted in 2013 or later. Combine that with the arrival of Kaapo Kakko in 2019-20 and Finland's international success at events like the World Men's Under-18 Championship and the World Juniors, and we should see Finland's numbers continue to rise among top NHL players.
As for the league each player was drafted from (or which league they were signed out of to an AHL or NHL contract as undrafted free agents), the Ontario Hockey League reigns supreme. Sixty-one of the 286 players came out of the O, whereas 40 were playing in the Western Hockey League, 36 were in the Swedish leagues and 30 were in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.
The United States Hockey League, USA's top amateur junior hockey league that allows players to maintain college eligibility, has seen 16 players from its member clubs drafted. However, if you add in the U.S. National Team Development Program, which has played a split schedule between its U17 and U18 teams in the league since 2009-10, 27 players have been selected from that league. The NTDP accounts for 16 players who were directly drafted from there since 2005.
Twenty-one players came out of the collegiate ranks, although that number grows when you consider how many players enrolled to develop with an NCAA school after being drafted. Fourteen players came directly out of U.S. prep or high schools, including eight from Minnesota-based high schools and six from New England prep teams.
Finnish leagues are responsible for 14 players, while the Russian leagues developed 12.
The teams providing the best talent
One of the more fascinating things that came out of this research was that while the list of 286 players who met the criteria came from 148 different teams, almost half were drafted or signed from just 33 teams worldwide. Each of those 33 teams could claim at least three players who made the list. And nearly 18% of the NHL's players meeting our criteria came from the top five teams. Thirteen teams had at least four players. Here's a look at some standout pipeline clubs:
U.S. National Team Development Program
The NTDP has been in operation since 1996 and has always provided talent to the NHL, but the quality of those players has only risen in recent years. There were 16 players selected directly from their U18 team in our research, including each of the three Americans who went No. 1 overall since 2005: Erik Johnson, Patrick Kane and Auston Matthews. Jack Hughes would be a fourth in that group, but he did not qualify for this study at this point. When including players who spent at least one year at the NTDP in our timeline, 25 alumni made the cut.
USA Hockey's in-house development program is far and away the most prolific producer of NHL talent. It's important to note, however, that unlike its junior team counterparts, the NTDP is not beholden to a draft. It simply selects and recruits the players it wants, whereas junior teams have to go through a process not entirely dissimilar from those of the NHL (though there is more of a recruiting element that goes into it). The NTDP is limited to select players from a single birth year and of U.S. nationality, but it still gives it a deep pool.
London Knights
It was no surprise that the Knights came in at No. 2 on this list. You can almost hear Pierre McGuire rattling off which of the players on the ice played for Dale Hunter in London, Ontario. Ten players were drafted directly from London, including John Tavares, although he spent the bulk of his time playing for the Oshawa Generals. Kane and Matthew Tkachuk are also former London Knights, as well as products of the NTDP. London is a magnet for elite players, and it has been for years.
The 10 players who were included for this exercise are Tavares, Kane, Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, Max Domi, Nazem Kadri, Bo Horvat, Steve Mason, Andreas Athanasiou and Sam Gagner. John Carlson also went to London after his draft year and is among the players on our list not counted for the Knights. Go beyond our time frame, and the names include the likes of Rick Nash and Corey Perry.
Halifax Mooseheads
The Mooseheads have become a powerhouse in providing elite talent to the NHL. Each of the six Halifax players who made our list were drafted in the top 10, including No. 1 overall picks Nathan MacKinnon and Nico Hischier. Five of the six players have been drafted within the last six years, as well. Interestingly enough, only two of those six are Canadian, as Halifax has become one of the most attractive destinations for import players looking to make the jump to North America.
Among players who were too young for our list, Filip Zadina was the No. 6 overall pick in 2018. And the Mooseheads are expected to produce one of this year's top defensemen for the 2020 NHL draft, Justin Barron.
Frolunda HC
The Frolunda Hockey Club, based in Gothenburg, Sweden, likely needs no introduction for most hockey fans. It is a historic franchise in Sweden's top league and produced Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Lundqvist, Alexander Steen and Loui Eriksson before our selected timeline. But the train keeps rolling with high-end talent, most notably with Erik Karlsson, and most recently with Dahlin, the 2018 No. 1 pick.
Frolunda has been among the top clubs for years and is likely to produce another star in this year's NHL draft -- consensus top-five pick Lucas Raymond will be playing with Frolunda's pro team this season.
MODO, another club often held up as one of the elites in Sweden, provided four names for our list, but has a history littered with Hockey Hall of Famers. The franchise has slipped in the last few years, being relegated to Allsvenskan following the 2015-16 season. But Victor Hedman and William Nylander are among its alumni. The small town of Ornskoldsvik's pedigree is well-documented. Peter Forsberg, Markus Naslund and Daniel and Henrik Sedin all hail from Modo Hockey.
College program impact
Many of the American-born players who enter the NHL have come from the U.S. collegiate ranks. Because most players start college after their draft years, I wanted to look at where the players who did attend college for at least one season played their NCAA seasons.
College hockey alumni in the NHL has continued to rise, with 32.5% of the players who reached the NHL last season coming from the NCAA ranks, according to College Hockey Inc. And among the players who met our criteria, 73 were NCAA alumni (around 25.5%). They came from 23 different schools, and 10 schools had at least three players meet the criteria.
While a player's team and system are important components in his development, whether or not any given player makes it is still very much on him. Much of their path is dictated by geography, drafts they have no control over, challenging decisions at young ages and an intense amount of hard work and dedication to their craft.
In many or perhaps most cases, these players are going to get to the league regardless of where they end up in those crucial steps before making the jump to the big time. But strong development clubs certainly help in unlocking potential.