CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan didn't hesitate when asked recently how he would sum up the first half of his rookie season.
"It was average," he deadpanned.
McMillan's teammates disagree. They can't imagine where the Panthers (5-5) would be heading into Sunday's NFC South matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (1 p.m. ET, Fox) without the No. 8 draft pick and his team-leading 46 catches for 618 yards.
That's fair. Carolina's top six wide receivers after McMillan have combined for 46 catches and 523 yards. None of them has more than 20 catches and 181 yards.
McMillan represents 34.2% of the team's receiving yards and 24.1% of its receptions. While impressive for a rookie, it could also be problematic because it has made Carolina's offense predictable, allowing opponents to focus their pass defense on him and gang up against the run, as the New Orleans Saints did in Sunday's 17-7 win over Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, when running back Rico Dowdle was held to 53 yards.
That brings us to where the receiving corps and McMillan have been least effective: the deep passing game.
The 6-foot-5, 212-pound receiver was considered a big-time deep threat in college. While he didn't always create great separation with speed, he used his size and physicality to get open on deep routes. He was well-known for his elite catch radius that allowed him to go up high and make tough receptions look routine, but that hasn't translated to the NFL.
Of the 31 players with 10-plus targets on throws of 20-plus air yards this year, McMillan is tied for seventh worst, according to ESPN Research. He ranks 78th in reception percentage on targets of 20-plus air yards, catching three of 11 targets for 78 yards and no touchdowns. On throws of 30-plus yards, he has no catches on four targets. Xavier Legette, Carolina's 2024 first-round pick, also hasn't fared well on deep passes. He has two receptions on five targets of 20-plus yards with no touchdowns, and one reception on two targets of 30-plus air yards for 33 yards.
It's not for a lack of separation, which was a concern about McMillan coming out of college. McMillan and Legette are solid at around 2.35 yards, well above Seattle's breakout receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 1.6. Neither has a drop on a deep ball, either. Legette was open deep against the Saints early and Bryce Young's pass was knocked down at the line of scrimmage.
"It's just we gotta win our matchups," McMillan said. "That's what it really comes down to. We've got to get better."
McMillan refuses to blame Young, but statistics show the top pick of the 2023 draft could be part of the problem. Young has completed 35% of passes of 20-plus air yards, ranking 23rd in the NFL. He ranks 32nd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks on completion percentage over expectation with a rate of -13.7 on those throws, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That's based on where the ball is thrown, how much pressure Young is under and how close defenders are to a receiver when the ball arrives. The expectation is a 49% completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards.
Young's completion rate on off-target throws is 25%, tying him for fourth lowest in the NFL, which implies receivers aren't making catches as often as analytics suggest they should. Arm strength could be a factor. Young's average yards per attempt on throws of 20-plus yards is only 24.9, lowest in the NFL. He is 0-for-5 on throws of 30-plus air yards and has topped 200 yards passing once in nine games (Week 2).
"We can't point the finger and put it on Bryce," McMillan said. "It's a collective effort. It comes down to, as receivers, we have to make Bryce's job easier. We can't just be possession receivers.
"We've got to be able to make some yards after the catch, create explosiveness ourselves."
McMillan was explosive in college. He made the hard, over-the-shoulder catches. He broke tackles and made big yards after the catch. He had 304 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 10 catches in a 61-39 victory over New Mexico his senior year. Only five other FBS receivers had topped 300 yards over the previous decade.
He has only two touchdown catches this season, both against Dallas in Week 6. Still, McMillan's teammates see the little things the rookie does in terms of drawing coverage to his side or forcing teams to double team him, opening up plays for them. They see the exceptional, not the average.
"When I caught that touchdown against the Patriots, TMac was on my side," tight end Tommy Tremble said. "He made that space just wide open for me in the back of the end zone.
"His game, it calls for a lot of attention [from the defense]."
What a view
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McMillan knows that reeling in the deep passes could elevate his status to the point where he might be compared to the top receivers in the league, such as Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.
Being one of the top receivers is important to McMillan, which is why he says he's been average thus far.
"Everybody feels like they can play better," he said. "I definitely had a lot of missed opportunities [in the first half of the season] I left it out there on the field. Hopefully, in the second half of the season I can make those plays."