EAGAN, Minn. -- For a moment, at least, let's step back from the quarterback quandary that has dominated attention around the Minnesota Vikings.
As they return from their bye, the Vikings (3-2) face the NFL's most difficult remaining schedule as projected by ESPN Analytics. They will play five of the league's top 10 teams during the next eight weeks, and ESPN Analytics currently favors them to win only two of their remaining games.
To maintain competitiveness during that stretch, the Vikings will surely need a level of consistency and certainty at quarterback, whether it is behind J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz or a combination of the two. No less important, however, is the necessity to play near-dominant defense to meet the challenge of the schedule.
The Vikings' defense has been good this season, ranking No. 5 in scoring allowed (19.4 points per game) and No. 2 in expected points added per play (-0.08). But it has exhibited some weaknesses that defensive coordinator Brian Flores and his staff spent the bye week unpacking, most notably against the run (No. 24 in success rate). That has allowed teams to control the ball against them, as opponents have averaged 31:04 in time of possession, No. 23 in the NFL. And while they are tied for No. 10 in the league after forcing seven turnovers, five of them came in one game -- a 48-14 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 -- and none in their past two.
With the short-term trajectory of their offense uncertain, the Vikings likely will need their defense to control games -- making big plays and creating shorter possessions -- to a greater degree.
"We've forced a good chunk of our turnovers in one game," coach Kevin O'Connell said, "and that was a great performance by our team that day. And I think the score was indicative of a lot of things looking like they were in alignment with how we want to play.
"I think the defensive opportunities for turnovers will come, and they'll come with us being efficient on offense and maintaining possessions and scoring some points, and trying to let those guys play with a lead at times, and making people a little bit more one-dimensional than being in these back and forth kind of games."
Indeed, the Vikings' defense has averaged only 22 plays per game with a lead this season, fourth lowest in the NFL, as two of their three victories have resulted from fourth-quarter comebacks. During last season's 14-3 campaign, the Vikings led the league with an average of 41.2 defensive snaps per game with a lead.
Flores said this week that playing from behind doesn't change his approach to playcalling, noting: "I always want to try to be aggressive regardless of the situation." Opponents, however, can more confidently utilize their run games when ahead. Overall this season, the Vikings' defense has faced a greater percentage of designed runs (46.3%) than any team in the league.
The Vikings have played much better against the pass, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 46.3 QBR and 9.72 yards per completion, both second lowest in the league. But that has come against an average of 29.2 attempts per game, eighth fewest in the NFL. Playing better on offense will help, but it's clear that opponents have zeroed in on a defensive vulnerability. The Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) and tailback Saquon Barkley, their opponents Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium (1 p.m. ET, Fox), will certainly notice.
In Week 2, for example, the Atlanta Falcons ran for 218 yards on 39 rushing attempts and threw only 21 passes. The Pittsburgh Steelers followed a similar pattern in Week 4, rushing for 131 yards on 29 attempts while throwing only 21 passes. The following week, Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins finished with 132 rushing yards on 23 carries.
The Vikings' defense has found ways to limit the damage of those rushing efforts and hasn't given up more than 24 points in any game. The Vikings were within striking distance of the Falcons, trailing 15-6 in the fourth quarter, before intentionally allowing them to score a final touchdown in an effort to quickly regain possession on offense. The Steelers managed only three points in the fourth quarter as the Vikings' offense mounted a comeback in a 24-21 loss, and the Vikings kept the Browns close enough in Week 5 to give Wentz a chance to mount a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter in a 21-17 victory.
The run defense could get a boost this week if inside linebacker Blake Cashman returns after missing four games because of a hamstring injury. Cashman is a sure tackler, and the Vikings have been wildly successful in games he has played in since signing as a free agent in March 2024. Over that period, they are 13-1 in regular-season games when he has been available and 4-4 when he has not.
"I think generally [good run defense is] the same thing," Flores said. "It's fundamentals. It's tackling. It's getting off blocks, setting edges, things right in that kind of realm. It's not the flashy stuff. It's really the non-sexy things that we just need to do better, a better job of being more consistent with. And I think if we do that, then we'll put ourselves in a better position."
Suffice it to say, the Vikings will need the defense to do just that over the final three months of the season.