HENDERSON, Nev. -- Pete Carroll doesn't care what anyone thinks about his lofty goals for the Las Vegas Raiders in Year 1 as head coach.
In 18 seasons in the NFL, Carroll has finished with a losing record just four times. He has had nine seasons with at least 10-plus wins -- tied for 11th most by a coach in the Super Bowl era. Despite inheriting a team that went 4-13 and hasn't been to the postseason since 2021, Carroll hasn't diminished his expectations.
"We are going to win a bunch of games. I can't even imagine anything else," Carroll said confidently on the first day of training camp last month. "I've been winning 10 games a year for 20 years or something, you know? I mean, what are my expectations? We are going to win a bunch, and I don't care who hears that.
"... I wish I could guarantee it to you, but I can't even think of what else it could be, other than being really successful."
However, Carroll faces a tough challenge in trying to build a playoff contender in one season. Not only does he have to navigate the AFC West -- Las Vegas was 0-6 against the Broncos, Chargers and Chiefs in 2024 -- but the Raiders are expected to rely on young players at key positions, suggesting that the 73-year-old has a tall task ahead of him in what can be seen as a developmental year for the organization.
"I'm thrilled to be in the position where it looks like all odds are against you," Carroll said. "Nothing wrong with that."
The Raiders enter Sunday's season opener against the New England Patriots with projections of a 24.1% chance of making the postseason and a win total of 7.5. Since 1978, the average record for coaches in their first year with a team and coaching at least 16 games is 7-9. Only 29 coaches since the 1970 merger have had an above-.500 record in their first year with a team that had won fewer than five games in the previous season.
Las Vegas is the fourth NFL team Carroll has coached. The Super Bowl XLVII champion with Seattle in the 2013 season has a combined record of 23-25 in his first season with the New York Jets, Patriots and Seahawks. He went 6-10 in his lone season in New York, though the Jets were 6-5 through the first 11 games before dropping five in a row and firing Carroll at the end of the year.
Two seasons later, Carroll was hired to replace Bill Parcells as the Patriots' coach, compiling a 33-31 record in three years. In his first season in 1997, Carroll guided New England to the top of the AFC East with a record of 10-6. He made two postseason appearances before New England parted ways with him, opening the door for Bill Belichick to step in.
Following an eight-year stint at USC, which included two national championships, Carroll was hired in 2010 by the Seahawks, who had finished 5-11 under Jim L. Mora in the previous season.
Despite Seattle's 7-9 record, the team finished first in the NFC West and clinched a postseason berth. Carroll is one of 24 coaches since 1970 to make the playoffs in his first season with a new team that had won five or fewer games in the previous year.
Even though the odds are against the Raiders, there's reason for optimism. In the last eight seasons, there have been five teams with a winning record in their first season with a new coach and general manager, most recently in 2024 when the Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 under Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz.
The Raiders believe they have the right coach in place to make a quick turnaround. It also helps that they have Geno Smith, a two-time Pro Bowl selection, as the franchise quarterback. Since 2022, Smith -- who was traded from Seattle this offseason -- has been ranked fourth in passing yards (12,226) and eighth in touchdown passes (71).
He leads an offense that consists of rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman Trophy finalist, and second-year tight end Brock Bowers, who is already viewed as one of the best players at his position. And with former Eagles and 49ers head coach Chip Kelly as the offensive coordinator, Las Vegas is capable of putting up better numbers than last year's group, which finished 27th in total offense (303.2 yards per game) and 29th in points (18.2 per game).
"To be able to have Chip and Geno and all these pieces around, it's a good feeling," said veteran running back Raheem Mostert, playing for his sixth team (also Dolphins, 49ers, Browns, Bears, Ravens) after spending the last three seasons in Miami. "I have a strong feeling about this offense. It's something that I haven't felt for quite some time. I mean no disrespect to my previous employers."
Indeed, the Raiders' offense has the potential to give opponents fits. At the same time, the team's blueprint for the offseason showed it had an eye toward the future instead of a heavy focus on immediate success.
"This isn't a 'one-year try to save it' [season]," Spytek said. "This is a 'build the right way' [season], set the franchise in the right direction [and] built for sustained success.
"Get it in a place where we [have] a young roster with a lot of good players, and then maybe there's a free agent in Year 2, where you really go for it."
Las Vegas gave out long-term extensions to key veterans such as Smith, defensive end Maxx Crosby and left tackle Kolton Miller, but the Raiders essentially turned the roster over to bring in players who fit the culture Carroll wants to establish.
The Raiders' defense took the biggest hit amid the fresh offseason approach. Las Vegas moved on from eight defensive starters, including linebacker Robert Spillane, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, and cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs.
Las Vegas is relying on veterans on one-year, prove-it deals, including cornerback Eric Stokes and linebacker Devin White. The Raiders are hoping to unlock the potential of defensive tackle Thomas Booker IV, who was traded from the Eagles in exchange for Bennett and has emerged as a potential starter. They are also banking on the development of third-year cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly and rookie corner Darien Porter.
"It's hard to be confident until you've really gone through it, so that's the problem with playing rookies," Carroll said. "I've never had an issue with that. I've always played young guys and helped them make it through it, and we'll do much of the same with our guys now."
The Raiders could be left vulnerable against their division foes. The Chiefs, who have appeared in five Super Bowls in the last six seasons, are expected to maintain their spot at the top of the AFC West. The Broncos have improved the supporting cast around quarterback Bo Nix, who led the franchise to its first postseason appearance since 2015.
In 2010, Carroll's defense in Seattle ranked 25th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed.
Carroll believes the Raiders' mentality could be their superpower. He said the team has a handful of players with a chip on their shoulder who believe they deserve to be in the league.
"These guys have got something to prove," Carroll said. "I feel the same way. ... I really like going to battle with these guys because of where their heads are at, and they've proven it on the practice field. Now it's time to go."