SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- By the end of the 2024 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers looked like an old, battered team that had been through a half-decade's worth of long seasons.
After a 6-11 finish, they were in desperate need of a refresh. The extended offseason and rest that comes with missing the playoffs helps, but the real influx of juice will come this week at the 2025 NFL draft.
"We are drafting 11th and we're going to have an opportunity to add some really, really good football players," owner Jed York said. "We have to take advantage of having a higher draft pick than we've had for a long time and just continue to make this team younger, stronger, better so we can continue to compete for what we ultimately want to do."
When the 49ers make their selection at No. 11 on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN), it will be the highest pick they have had without a trade up since taking defensive end Nick Bosa No. 2 overall in 2019.
Eleven is also the total number of picks the Niners own, tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the most of any team in the draft. According to general manager John Lynch, the 49ers have 20 players with a first-round grade and 200 players they've deemed draftable.
Hitting on that first pick will set the tone for the rest of what is an important draft for the future of the franchise. With that in mind, let's answer three burning questions centered on that first selection.
What's the 49ers' ideal scenario and how likely is it?
The simple answer: One of the draft's top prospects somehow falls into San Francisco's lap. League observers believe that there are only seven or eight players who qualify as elite prospects and beyond that it's splitting hairs between a large group of similar players.
"The quality of player drafted at No. 11 overall is eerily similar to the prospects that will be picked in the early-to-mid second round," ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid said.
Which means the 49ers would benefit from having a few teams in front of them choose players who aren't considered to be in that top tier. For example, the more quarterbacks who go in the top 10, the better.
If those kinds of curveballs are thrown, players like Colorado cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter, Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter, Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham, Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou, LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell, Penn State tight end Tyler Warren and Georgia linebacker/edge Jalon Walker could be available if any slip to No. 11.
Given their significant needs on the defensive line, Carter or Graham falling to 11th would be a dream scenario but both seem unlikely, with almost no chance Carter slips. Graham is more realistic -- though still a longshot. Membou or Campbell would be desirable, but many teams in front of them have needs on the offensive line, too.
Of that group of eight, Reid said Walker is the most likely to slip out of the top 10 in part because he's not an ideal scheme fit for the teams picking in front of the Niners.
Walker isn't exactly an ideal scheme fit in San Francisco, either.
According to Reid, Walker would be best used as a stand-up outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense rather than as a weak-side linebacker or edge rusher in the Niners' attacking 4-3 defense.
Warren could also drop, mainly because tight ends aren't often valued as highly as other positions. With current starting tight end George Kittle and Luke Farrell, who signed in free agency, Warren is a less likely choice. If coach Kyle Shanahan wanted to incorporate more multiple tight end sets into the playbook, he could develop Warren as a long-term Kittle replacement.
If none of those guys fall to No. 11, what about a trade?
The 49ers have the capital to move up if there's a player they want. The problem is they also have major needs on both lines as well as at linebacker, receiver and cornerback -- with safety, tight end and running back also registering as sneaky needs.
That means the 49ers would likely prefer not to part with any of their Day 2 picks to move into the top 10, and Day 3 three selections probably aren't enough for a trade.
Instead, they are more likely to trade down, accumulate even more picks and make their first pick a bit later in the first round. For such a deal to come together, there has to be a player teams want to move up for and a team willing to give up assets to get him.
In recent years, teams have moved into the range of the 11th pick for quarterbacks.
In 2021, the Chicago Bears moved from No. 20 to No. 11 for Justin Fields. In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals moved from No. 15 to No. 10 for Josh Rosen and in 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs moved from No. 27 to No. 10 for Patrick Mahomes and the Houston Texans moved from No. 25 to No. 12 for Deshaun Watson.
Would a team in the back part of the first round (such as the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 21) be willing to make a move for Colorado's Shedeur Sanders or Mississippi's Jaxson Dart?
Still, the relative similarities between prospects expected to be on the board at the point the Niners pick figure to make moving down a difficult proposition and there are always more teams looking to move down than move up.
"I feel like there's a lot of people trying to go (down)," Lynch said. "Probably because of the quality of starters that run deep into this draft. Generally, when everyone wants to do the same thing, there's not as much opportunity. I think early in the draft a lot of people are going to end up staying put because everyone is trying to do the same thing."
Absent a trade, what are the most realistic options for the 11th pick?
If neither of the preferred scenarios unfolds, the good news is the Niners' biggest needs seem to align with the strengths of the draft.
That's especially true on the defensive line where San Francisco needs as many as three new starters, including an edge rusher opposite Bosa and a pair of defensive tackles.
Reid called this year's defensive line class a "truly special group" and believes as many as four defensive tackles and seven defensive ends could go in the first round. And though he tabs Carter as "a tier of his own" at his position, he doesn't view the drop off after Graham as significant at tackle.
One name the Niners have done their homework on is Mississippi defensive tackle Walter Nolen. Nolen is a quick, explosive pass rusher they would covet on the interior, though he needs to be more consistent as a run defender.
On the edge, Georgia's Mykel Williams and Texas A&M's Shemar Stewart both took pre-draft visits with the 49ers.
They are considered first-round prospects -- with Williams, in particular, looking like a potential fit despite an injury-plagued 2024 for the Bulldogs. Williams was projected as a top five pick in some way-too-early mock drafts, including one from ESPN's Field Yates, and Reid ranked him as the No. 1 prospect in all of college football heading into last season. One NFC scout told ESPN that he'd be "surprised" if Williams fell to No. 11.
Check out some of the numbers that make Georgia's Mykel Williams a top NFL prospect.
The 49ers' history under Shanahan and Lynch also points to the defensive line being prioritized. In eight drafts under Lynch and Shanahan, they have used their first selection in the draft on the defensive line four times -- with the other four going to quarterback (2021), receiver (2024), offensive tackle (2018) and safety (2023).
Outside of the defensive line, the Niners have done work on offensive tackles, hosting Texas' Kelvin Banks Jr. and Ohio State's Josh Simmons on pre-draft visits.
On Tuesday, Lynch was asked if he has a guy in mind for the 11th pick. He said, simply, "We've got a few guys."
Projecting what happens before the Niners are on the clock at No. 11 is difficult but, barring big curveballs, it's reasonable to think Williams, Nolen, Banks and Stewart fall into that category.
Regardless of which direction San Francisco goes, it's imperative to get this -- and many of their other picks -- right if it wants to return to contention in 2025.
"I don't want to ever be 6-11 again," Lynch said. "I don't intend to be 6-11 again ... the draft is a really important part of fixing that and we're looking forward to that opportunity."