The Atlanta Falcons will be on the clock with the No. 15 pick in the NFL draft on April 24. Most expect the team to select a defender to aid a unit that struggled in 2024, especially in the pass rush.
Even Falcons owner Arthur Blank said earlier this month at the annual league meetings that the front office will be focused on defense in this draft. It's no trade secret. The Falcons haven't had a player with double-digit sacks since 2017, which also corresponds to the last time they had a winning record and earned a playoff berth.
But will general manager Terry Fontenot actually do what is most expected? He has shown in his tenure, which is going on its fifth year, the proclivity to think outside the box, especially last year when the Falcons stunned the NFL by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 a month after signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year deal with $90 million guaranteed.
Fontenot has said on multiple occasions he doesn't believe in reaching for a need if there are better players available at other positions. Could that scenario unfold again on the first night of the draft?
The best way to project it is to crunch data from the past.
2021
First round (No. 4 overall): TE Kyle Pitts
In his first draft, Fontenot made a statement that he was going to buck convention for the right player. The Falcons made Pitts the highest-drafted tight end in NFL history.
And Atlanta's front office looked like geniuses during Pitts' record-breaking rookie season (68 receptions and 1,026 yards). Since then, though, Pitts has dealt with injuries and inconsistency. He's also the only player the Falcons drafted in 2021 who remains with the team.
2022
First round (No. 8 overall): WR Drake London
London was the first wide receiver taken in a draft that also included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and George Pickens. But the former basketball player broke out in 2024, finishing fourth in receiving yards (1,271) despite quarterback Kirk Cousins' struggles in the middle of the season.
Falcons fans could enjoy the combination of Penix and London for a while. Atlanta also hit on running back Tyler Allgeier in the fifth round of this draft.
2023
First round (No. 8 overall): RB Bijan Robinson
Fontenot once again went against the grain when he took Robinson at No. 8, the highest a running back was drafted since Saquon Barkley went second overall to the New York Giants in 2018. Few would complain about what Robinson has become -- one of the best running backs in the NFL. He was third in rushing yards (1,456) and tied for fifth in rushing touchdowns (14) in 2024. But for the third straight year, the Falcons invested in a skill position rather than a much-needed impact player on defense.
This was Fontenot's best draft, though. Second-round pick Matthew Bergeron has started from Day 1 at left guard. Defensive lineman Zach Harrison (third round) and cornerback Clark Phillips III (fourth round) are promising young players. Safety DeMarcco Hellams (seventh round) missed all of last season with an ankle injury but started four games as a rookie and could be a regular in 2025.
2024
First round (No. 8 overall): QB Michael Penix Jr.
This was the year the Falcons absolutely had to draft a pass rusher. After signing Cousins to potentially end their woes at quarterback, all indications were that Atlanta would then fix its defense with the No. 8 pick. That did not happen, but the pick has aged well. Cousins struggled beginning midseason in 2024 and was benched in favor of Penix in Week 16. The organization believes it has its franchise quarterback now in Penix.
But what of the defense? Atlanta traded up to draft defensive lineman Ruke Orhorhoro in the second round, took edge rusher Bralen Trice in the third round and selected defensive lineman Brandon Dorlus in the fourth. All three could eventually break out. But Trice injured a knee in training camp and missed all of his rookie season. Orhorhoro played in just eight games due to injuries, and Dorlus saw action in only two games.
Prognosis for 2025
The Falcons' biggest free agent signings were two veteran front-seven guys: edge rusher Leonard Floyd and defensive end Morgan Fox. Both are talented in getting to the quarterback, especially as part of an ensemble. Atlanta will get Trice back, and fourth-year edge rusher Arnold Ebiketie came on late in 2024 and could have a breakout season.
Even if they have confidence in that group, the Falcons still seem likely to draft a pass rusher in the first round. The draft is abundant with talented players up front on defense. So, Atlanta, which has only five picks, could look to trade down for more draft capital and still get a player it really likes later in the first round.
The Falcons have met with several offensive tackles who are projected to go in the first round. That could be smoke and mirrors. But keep in mind, Penix is left-handed and right tackle Kaleb McGary will be asked to protect his blind side, something McGary has not done. Left tackle Jake Matthews was just extended through 2028, but he's 33 years old and the team could be looking soon for his heir apparent.
Still, it seems like that is more of a problem for 2026. The Falcons have a potentially high-powered offense and need to get better on defense. They need to generate a better pass rush than in 2024, when they were second to last in both sacks (31) and pressure rate (28.1%).
Despite the best-player-available philosophy of previous drafts, someone who can get to the quarterback should remain Atlanta's top first-round target.