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Can Vikings keep winning without succeeding in NFL draft?

Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (right) and coach Kevin O'Connell oversaw the oldest roster in the NFL in 2024. AP Photo/Abbie Parr

EAGAN, Minn. -- Since hiring general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in 2022, the Minnesota Vikings have compiled the NFL's sixth-best winning percentage -- almost exclusively with players drafted by his predecessor or other teams. That unique collection of circumstances will hover over the franchise this offseason and prompt an unusual football question: Can a team build a sustained winner independent of draft outcomes?

As they compiled a 34-17 record (.667) from 2022 to 2024, the Vikings had 107 starts from players drafted during that period. It was the NFL's second-lowest total over that time frame, according to ESPN Research. The Miami Dolphins were the only team with fewer (31), but their scope was limited by league discipline that forced them to forfeit a first-round pick in 2023 and a third-rounder in 2024.

Adofo-Mensah covered for that draft performance with a stellar free agent class in 2024 that included three Pro Bowlers and 12 players who made at least one start, leaving the Vikings to finish the season with the NFL's oldest team based on age-weighted snap count. But as he prepares to lead his fourth offseason with the franchise, amid what ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported are contract extension talks with team ownership, Adofo-Mensah will have a narrow opportunity to pursue the lifeblood of most successful organizations: replenishing with young talent.

The Vikings have three 2025 draft picks (with one more likely coming via the NFL's compensatory system), which puts them on track to select the second-fewest players among NFL teams in the four drafts between 2022 and 2025, per ESPN Research projections. Asked earlier this month if he thinks he should make any changes to his draft process, Adofo-Mensah initially said "it's amazing that I get asked these questions," but later added that the team is "always" trying to get better.

"I'm really confident with how our group has grown and evolved over those years," Adofo-Mensah said. "[From] a first-time GM, I think there were things that I've grown at as a leader, as an ability to kind of understand the information that I'm being given. When to press buttons and say, 'This needs to be different.' Or when to kind of sit back and take other people's input. I think I've grown just kind of exponentially in that regard and I'm excited about this draft."

One way the group has evolved is that the Vikings' coaching staff inserted itself into the process over the past two seasons, with Adofo-Mensah's blessing. Coach Kevin O'Connell pushed hard to select receiver Jordan Addison with the No. 23 overall pick in 2023, and O'Connell led the evaluation that resulted in the selection of quarterback J.J. McCarthy at No. 10 overall in 2024.

This month, many around the NFL took note of the Vikings' priorities when O'Connell was the first to receive a contract extension, announced eight days after the team was eliminated from the playoffs. But owners Zygi and Mark Wilf did not make any changes to the team's structure or operation as part of O'Connell's new deal, a team source confirmed, meaning Adofo-Mensah remains the team's primary football executive.

Adofo-Mensah acknowledged his poor 2022 class after waiving first-round safety Lewis Cine and trading second-round cornerback Andrew Booth Jr., saying he tried to fill too many of the team's needs in one draft. Guard Ed Ingram, another second-round pick that year, was benched midseason after the Vikings gave him 2 1/2 seasons to develop. All told, the Vikings can count one impact player (Addison) and one consistent offensive or defensive contributor (receiver Jalen Nailor) among the 19 players they've drafted since the start of 2022.

As always, context is important. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury last summer, as did cornerback Mekhi Blackmon, a third-round pick in 2023 who likely would have been a key player this season. Promising cornerback Khyree Jackson, a fourth-round pick in 2024, was killed in a car crash before training camp. And Will Reichard, a 2024 sixth-round pick, was the team's primary kicker this season.

But Adofo-Mensah put a historic level of faith in acquiring linebacker Dallas Turner, trading six picks and using a seventh to draft him No. 17 overall last spring. At the time, the Vikings had already signed linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel in free agency. Both started all 17 games and made the Pro Bowl, while Turner played only 315 defensive snaps (26.8%). A total of 51 rookies around the NFL played more.

"I understood the veteran locker room I was coming into," Turner said at the end of the season, "and my job was just be a rookie and be a sponge."

When he did get on the field, Turner produced 17 tackles, three sacks and eight pressures. It was fair to expect a more immediate impact from a player who required so much draft capital to acquire, but Flores made a startling comparison to Pittsburgh Steelers defensive lineman Cameron Heyward in October. Heyward was a first-round pick in 2011 who did not become a starter until his third season.

"I know the world is such where everybody wants instant gratification today and tomorrow," Adofo-Mensah said, speaking generally. "And that's not how the good teams are built. They address wants before they are wants. You try and find unique opportunities when you can."

The Vikings have put together seasons of 13 and 14 wins since hiring Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell, augmenting a solid core of players with effective free agent signings and trades. But it is difficult to sustain winning with other teams' discards.

The Kansas City Chiefs, for example, have benefited from 286 starts among players drafted between 2022 and 2024, more than twice the Vikings' total. The Chiefs are headed to their fifth Super Bowl in the past six seasons. There are many ways to build a championship team, but the Vikings have dug themselves a deep hole if they hope to emulate a similar draft-based model.