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ESPN Staff Writer- Kevin Seifert is a staff writer who covers the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL at ESPN. Kevin has covered the NFL for over 20 years, joining ESPN in 2008. He was previously a beat reporter for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Washington Times. He is a graduate of the University of Virginia. You can follow him via Twitter @SeifertESPN.
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ESPN- Eric Woodyard covers the Detroit Lions for ESPN. He joined ESPN in September 2019 as an NBA reporter dedicated to the Midwest region before switching to his current role in April 2021. The Flint, Mich. native is a graduate of Western Michigan University and has authored/co-authored three books: "Wasted, Ethan's Talent Search" and "All In: The Kelvin Torbert Story". He is a proud parent of one son, Ethan. You can follow him on Twitter: @E_Woodyard
More than three decades have passed since an NFL regular-season game carried the stakes of Sunday night's matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions at Ford Field (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).
The winner will clinch the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the conference playoffs, while the loser will be the best team in league history (by winning percentage) to have failed to win a division. Not since 1993, when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the New York Giants in overtime, has the No. 1 seed been determined by a single game in the final week of a season.
"This is what you're in it for, man. Ultimately, this is it," Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week. "I mean, you couldn't write a better scenario."
The Lions won the first clash this season, holding on for a 31-29 victory in Week 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings lost the following week to the Rams but built a nine-game winning streak from that point forward, allowing them to match the Lions' 14-2 record. The teams' combined .875 winning percentage is the highest in an NFL season finale since 1977 (12-1 Broncos vs. 11-2 Cowboys, .885), according to the Elias Sports Bureau, and it's the first regular-season game in NFL history between teams with 13 or more wins.
The Lions have lost only once since Week 2, but a steady stream of injuries to key defensive players sets up the likelihood of a high-scoring game Sunday night. The over/under of 57.5 is the NFL's highest since 2021 and its second highest in the past five seasons, according to ESPN BET.
ESPN Lions reporter Eric Woodyard and Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert set the table for Sunday's epic matchup:
Dan Campbell is 4-1 against Kevin O'Connell; what has been the difference?
Woodyard: It's simple: Campbell's offense has been better than O'Connell's defense.
The Lions have scored 30-plus points in four straight games against the Vikings, including in their win against Minnesota in Week 7. The 31 points Detroit put up were the most the Vikings have allowed in any game this season. Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has shined against Minnesota, with a receiving touchdown and at least 100 receiving yards in their past three matchups.
While the Vikings are 1-4 against the Lions since the start of the 2022 season, they are 33-12 against the rest of the NFL. The Vikings have allowed 29.8 points per game against the Lions and 20.9 points per game against the rest of the NFL over that span.
Seifert: The Vikings haven't always been at full personnel capacity for these games. Most notably, backup quarterback Nick Mullens started both 2023 contests, each won by the Lions. But probably the single biggest factor has been the nine turnovers the Vikings committed in those four losses, and the subsequent minus-7 turnover margin.
"Any self-inflicted things you do against good football teams is going to [make it] hard to win," O'Connell said. "We've had chances to win against those guys."
The Vikings also have a minus-10 sack differential in those games, largely a demonstration of their defense's inability to get consistent pressure on Lions quarterback Jared Goff.
Tim Hasselbeck and Dan Graziano discuss why injuries are the reason they no longer see the Lions as the NFC's best team.
Who is the most important player in Sunday's game?
Woodyard: Goff anchors the offense, and when he's on his A-game, the Lions are tough to beat -- particularly against Minnesota. In five games against the Vikings since the start of the 2022 season, Goff has a completion percentage of 71.8 with nine passing touchdowns and one interception. He also has 250-plus passing yards in each of those games.
Goff feels he's peaking as the Lions eye the No. 1 seed.
"I'm in year nine right now, and I think I said last year and the year before, I'm kind of entering my prime then. I'm probably right in my prime now and feeling pretty good and hope my prime lasts quite some time," Goff said Wednesday.
Seifert: Quarterback Sam Darnold has answered every challenge he has faced so far in resuscitating his career this season, and now he'll face another: Can he maintain his performance in the most pressure-packed scene of his NFL life?
In his past seven games, Darnold has averaged 287 yards passing while throwing 18 touchdown passes and two interceptions.
He has an enormous opportunity to keep it going -- the Lions' injury-depleted defense has allowed the NFL's second-most passing yards (1,808) and the highest QBR to opposing quarterbacks (73.0) since Week 11 -- but Darnold holds the keys to the Vikings' ability to keep pace with the Lions' own explosive offense.
What's a sneaky important matchup?
Woodyard: It'll be interesting to see how Detroit's secondary defends Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, who has torched them. Jefferson has averaged 182.5 receiving yards per game on the road against the Lions. And it was a wild December for Detroit, as it both scored and allowed 30-plus points in three different games. That is tied with the 2018 Rams for the most by any team in a calendar month in NFL history, per ESPN Research.
In the matchups against Jefferson, Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn called him a "special one," but they're committed to stopping him.
"Great players are going to end up making plays at some point in the game. It's hard to hold those guys down, but we're going to do everything we can to do it," Glenn said Thursday.
Seifert: Let's look at two here. The first adds to the already difficult challenge facing the Lions' pass defense. The Lions have committed 18 defensive pass interference penalties, tied for most in the NFL, and will face a Vikings offense that has gained more yards (328) on flags for defensive pass interference than any other NFL team.
And this won't help matters for the Lions: Referee Brad Rogers' crew has thrown more flags for defensive pass interference (26) than any of the NFL's other 17 officiating crews.
Second, the Lions' aggressive fourth-down offense will match up against the best fourth-down defense -- by a long shot -- in the NFL. Vikings opponents have converted 35.5% of fourth-down conversions this season, despite an NFL-high 31 attempts. The league average is 57.3%. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has put a major emphasis on preparing for the down, as teams across the league utilize it more often.
Shannon Sharpe takes issue with Dan Orlovsky saying he isn't surprised by how successful Sam Darnold and the Vikings have been this season.
How worse off would the loser be heading into the playoffs?
Woodyard: This could be the difference in a legitimate Super Bowl path for the Lions. Lose, and Detroit would drop to the fifth seed, where it could face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Atlanta Falcons or the Los Angeles Rams on the road.
For a team that has been gutted by injuries, particularly on defense, that wouldn't be an ideal situation -- especially during the postseason, when the Lions' recent defensive deficiencies would be heightened.
Win, and Detroit would not only secure the bye week and home-field advantage, but also give themselves a chance at returning some of those key players, such as running back David Montgomery, with a solid week of rest.
Seifert: It's hard to quantify the difference between winning and losing for the Vikings.
With a win, they get a week off after what promises to be a physical and intense game, followed by a home playoff schedule at U.S. Bank Stadium -- where they were 7-1 during the regular season.
With a loss, they would be the first 14-win team in NFL history to play a road wild-card game, possibly on a short week if the NFL schedules them for a Saturday game. That seems especially relevant for the Vikings, who are 7-1 on the road this season but have the NFL's oldest roster based on snap-weighted age.