INDIANAPOLIS -- It was less than two minutes into the Indianapolis Colts' big Week 15 matchup with the Denver Broncos, and their offense was already in an unenviable position.
But on third-and-10 with 13:45 remaining in the first quarter, the Colts overcame their difficult predicament. Receiver Josh Downs ran an in-breaking route down the middle of the field, and quarterback Anthony Richardson hit him with a heater of a throw between three defenders.
The 22-yard gain moved the chains, and the Colts kept them moving. They marched 70 yards in 10 plays on the game's opening drive, capping the possession with a 23-yard touchdown run from Richardson. The Colts took a 7-0 lead in a game that would largely dictate their playoff fates and simultaneously quieted Denver's loud home crowd.
But it would prove to be the Colts' only touchdown of the day.
In the continuation of a troubling trend, the Colts had yet another game in which they started with a productive opening drive, only to suffer an offensive downturn throughout the rest of the game. Last Sunday, it had a familiar result, with the Colts losing 31-13, leaving their playoff hopes in major jeopardy.
Few NFL teams have been more productive than the Colts on their opening possessions. Indianapolis has scored on 57.1% of its opening possessions, fifth best in the league. Contrast that figure with the Colts' overall percentage of drives that end with points, and it's startling: The Colts (6-8) are scoring on 33.5% of all possessions, which ranks 24th.
Addressing the problem will need to be a priority as the Colts attempt to stave off postseason elimination against the Tennessee Titans on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). But this remains a confounding issue that the Colts have been unable to get to the bottom of.
"I really don't even know how to answer that," Downs said.
The Colts might be lacking for answers, but evidence of the problem is everywhere. Consider a few statistical comparisons:
The Colts are converting 60% of third downs on opening drives, but just 32.7% during the remainder of games.
They score touchdowns 75% of the time when reaching the red zone on opening drives but 51.4% of the time the rest of the way.
On opening possessions, the Colts' average drive covers 40 yards. Beyond the opening possession, they average 26 yards.
There are dramatic declines in numerous other categories after their opening possessions. The Colts have searched for answers but so far in vain.
"We do studies on that stuff," coach Shane Steichen said. "When I was in Philly, we scored ... so many points in the second quarter. It's like, why was it in the second quarter and not the first quarter? Do I have a perfect answer for it? No. But sometimes that's the way the game goes. But we have to play a complete game, all four quarters."
It's important to understand the unique nature of plays that teams run early in games. They are typically part of the playcaller's opening script, commonly referred to as "the first 15." There are various approaches to this, Steichen said, but he has a set of reliable plays he chooses from that are intended for use early in games. The exact plays change from one week to the next.
"You go into a game with a plan to attack your opponent, and you sort of know those first calls, those opener calls, are going to get dialed up," offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said. "So, you do spend a little extra time on them. Later in the practice week, you're able to focus on those things and you hope to execute them better.
"We're trying to sort of maximize the execution of everything that you're going to call out there on game day. And sometimes you do feel pretty confident if something makes that opening [script], that it's going to get called. So, we try to dive into the details of that later in the week."
Steichen doesn't necessarily follow the script in order. Adjustments are made for longer down and distances or other unforeseen situations.
As for what happens later, that's where things get confusing. The Colts' tendency to spend more time practicing scripted plays is not unique. Most teams operate similarly.
But there are some possible explanations for the contrast. For one, defenses adjust as the game progresses, so offenses must do the same. Whether the Colts are making the appropriate adjustments is difficult to know, but it requires that Steichen, his staff and Richardson, prove adaptable. This is, perhaps, a difficult area for a young quarterback.
"It's always a little cat-and-mouse game within games," Cooter said.
One oddity worth mentioning is the Colts' usage of Richardson on opening drives versus the remainder of games: 21% of Richardson's rushing yards this season have come on opening drives despite just 12% of his rushes coming on those possessions. Richardson has averaged 9.9 yards per rush on opening drives versus 5.0 per rush on remaining possessions.
Like with most things the Colts' offense has attempted this season, the production declines as the game goes on.
"We're working to score points in all the quarters," Cooter said.