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Detroit Lions 2019 season preview: Lions' success hinges on new offense

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Kellerman calls Stafford overrated (0:58)

Max Kellerman contends that Matthew Stafford hasn't done enough in the NFL to be considered an elite quarterback. (0:58)

The Detroit Lions are ranked No. 21 in ESPN's preseason Football Power Index. Here's everything you need to know about the Lions heading into the 2019 NFL season:


The big question: Will offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell produce enough for the Lions to be successful?

The Lions have kept Bevell's plan mostly hidden during preseason games and practices with the Patriots and Texans. The franchise made the switch from Jim Bob Cooter to Bevell, in part, to find an offense that fits Matt Patricia's overall philosophy. So it should mean more running, play-action and vertical passing. If it works, the Lions have a chance to contend for the NFC North. If it doesn't, it could be another long season in Detroit. -- Michael Rothstein

Offseason in a nutshell

The hiring of Bevell, who has extensive experience (Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle) building offenses that feature the run, meant a shift in personnel and the fifth offense Stafford has had to learn. Detroit bolstered its defense throughout free agency and the draft by landing defensive end Trey Flowers and cornerback Justin Coleman to help the pass-rush and slot coverage. They followed it by drafting linebacker Jahlani Tavai in the second round of this year's draft and ended with signing defensive tackle Mike Daniels during training camp to give Flowers and Damon Harrison even more talent around them. -- Byline

Inside the Lions' schedule

Most important game: The Lions play on national television twice this season, but it's the road game on Monday night against the Green Bay Packers -- coming off a bye -- that is the big key. The game against the Packers concludes a difficult opening stretch that includes three teams that won playoff games last season (Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs). Detroit has had success recently in Green Bay, winning at Lambeau Field three of the past four seasons. Doing so again, no matter how the first quarter of the season goes, could either jump-start a playoff push or continue momentum from a surprising first four games.

Toughest stretch: Three playoff teams in Weeks 2-4 (home against the Chargers, at Philadelphia and home against Kansas City) come after a cross country trip to the Arizona Cardinals in the opener, facing rookie quarterback Kyler Murray. The Lions opened last season against a rookie quarterback and Sam Darnold shredded them. Preparing for Murray -- and first-year coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- will be tricky. Even if Detroit gets through that, a talent-laden three-game stretch remains. The good news is the Lions get a week off after the Chiefs.

Over or under 7.1 wins? The schedule looks difficult but go with the over -- possibly way over. Their defense has a chance to be a top-five unit with possibly the best defensive line in the league. Their offense should be better because they have tight ends that can help convert short-to-intermediate first downs, something that was lacking last year. And that could mean the difference in a couple of games. -- Rothstein

Schedule ranking: No. 25

Detroit is one of two teams (along with the Chargers) that doesn't have to play a single team coming off either a bye week or a "half-bye" Thursday game. And of course, the Lions host their own Thursday game, because it's Thanksgiving. That Thanksgiving game is part of Detroit's schedule getting easier in the second half. By our adjusted DVOA of opponent formula, only one of Detroit's final seven games (Week 14 at Minnesota) comes out projected as harder than average. -- Football Outsiders | See the full 1-32 ranking

Breakout fantasy star: RB Kerryon Johnson

Johnson's rookie season was cut short by injury, but the second-round pick made plenty of noise when he was on the field. Despite playing 51 percent of the snaps, Johnson ranked 14th among running backs in fantasy points, averaged 5.4 YPC (fifth-best) and caught 84% of his 38 targets (seventh-best). With Theo Riddick gone, Johnson is set up for a larger role in his second season. He has top-10 upside. -- Mike Clay | More fantasy coverage

The view from Vegas

Super Bowl odds: 75-1 (opened 125-1)
Over/under: 6.5 (O -140/U +120)
Playoff odds: Yes +320, No -400

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of Sept. 2.

Most interesting player prop

Over or under 4,069.5 passing yards for Matthew Stafford:

  • Rothstein: Over. Stafford had a subpar year in 2018 but it's also the only season since his injury-shortened 2010 year where he's thrown for less than 4,200 yards. Yes, he'll be in a new offense led by Darrell Bevell and his head coach, Matt Patricia, has made it clear he'd like to run the ball, but Stafford should still get ample opportunity to throw. And he should get a chance to take more deep shots. As long as he's healthy, he should beat this number.

  • Clay: Under. Stafford's 3,777 yards in 16 games last season was a 16-game career low, but Detroit's shift to a run-first offense isn't expected to change in 2019.

Bold prediction: The Lions go 10-6 and make the playoffs

Yes, this would be a complete record flip from last season and a lot of what has been shown so far from the franchise has been mediocre at best. But the depth at key positions is stronger than it has been since 2014 -- particularly on the defensive line -- and if Detroit can manage the game with Kerryon Johnson rushing the ball, it should give Stafford both more time and better windows to throw to. He also has stronger move-the-chains options at tight end, which should extend drives that faltered a year ago. From a prediction standpoint, this is the boldest I've ever gone with the Lions, a team that has typically lived in the 7-to-9 win world for much of the past half-decade. -- Rothstein

Where the Lions landed in NFLRank

Speed reads before the opener