The odds certainly look to be stacked against the Green Bay Packers in the upcoming NFC Championship Game. They travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks club that is 25-2 at CenturyLink Field since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012. The Seahawks also can lay claim to having the best defense in the NFL, as that platoon led the league in a wide variety of per-game categories, including yards allowed (267.1), passing yards (185.6), first downs (17.3) and points allowed (15.9).
Add in Aaron Rodgers' calf injury and the memory of a 36-16 loss at Seattle in Week 1, and it looks as though the Green and Gold don't have much of a chance in this contest.
But a closer examination of the metrics and game tape reveals that Eddie Lacy and the Green Bay rushing attack give the Packers a possible path to success in this contest.
Run to win works against Seattle
The Seahawks are 18-0 over the past two seasons when they hold an opposing team to fewer than 100 yards rushing; when opposing teams put up 100 or more yards on the ground, the Seahawks' record drops to 11-7. Some of this is certainly a matter of game-flow management
The Packers' ground game produces even when facing tough competition
Getting into triple-digit rushing-yardage territory is something Green Bay's offense is quite familiar with: The Packers have racked up 100 or more rushing yards in nine straight contests and in 12 of their last 13 games.
This rushing achievement isn't just a matter of facing subpar teams, as the Packers have proved adept at moving the ball against top-flight rushing defenses.
This season, Green Bay has faced six platoons that finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed. They rushed for 100 or more yards against three of those teams, all between Week 13 and the divisional round of the playoffs.
The game tape review backs up just how effective this rushing offense was in those three games. The Packers posted an 8.6-yard mark in the good blocking yards-per-attempt (GBYPA) category that measures how productive ball carriers are when given good run blocking (which is very loosely defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt). To put that total into perspective, consider that the 9-yard mark is generally considered the bar for elite performance in the GBYPA category.
That three-game number is even higher if the measurement is limited to Lacy's carries, as his elite abilities (including a nasty spin move) led to a 9.3 GBYPA in those three games. Lacy's ability to wear down defenses should help against a hard-hitting Seattle defense, and his absence from practice this week from knee soreness appears precautionary.
Since Week 11, he ranks first in the league in rush plays that gain 10 or more yards (21) and second in the number of yards gained on rushes of 10 or more yards (375). Lacy's production on those plays is about equally divided between yards gained before contact (195, 9.3 per rush) and yards gained after contact (180, 8.6 per rush). This shows it isn't enough to stop Lacy before he gets going, as he is equally capable of breaking off a big run even after the defense finds a way to make early contact.
Seattle's defense does not fare well against top-flight rushing attacks
The Seahawks finished third in the league in rush yards allowed per game (81.5), but this defense actually doesn't perform as well as that number indicates.
If the playoff game against Carolina is included, Seattle had seven games in which it faced an opponent that finished the season ranked in the top 10 in rushing yards. The Seahawks also had an eighth game against a team that finished only 1 yard away from ranking tied in the top 10 in rushing yards (which, coincidentally enough, is Green Bay).
In those eight contests, the Seahawks allowed an average of 117.4 rushing yards per game. They gave up more than 100 yards in five of those matchups (Dallas, Carolina twice, Kansas City and San Francisco) and had a 3-2 record in those games.
The game tape also backs up just how mediocre the Seahawks were at stopping the run in these contests. Seattle allowed a 7.7-yard GBYPA and a 41.6 percent good blocking rate, along with a 3.2 mark in the good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that measures overall rushing production. For perspective on this metric, consider that the league average in GBP is normally at or near the 3.2 mark.
What this shows is Seattle's rush defense may be dominant when facing subpar opponents, but when it faces a strong rushing offense, this platoon becomes average.
Packers can answer Seattle's defensive counterattack
The Seahawks may look to solve their rushing defense issues by putting one more defender in the tackle box than the offense has blockers.
This tactic sounds great in theory, but it may not pay off in practice for a variety of reasons.
The primary one is that Green Bay ranked second in yards per carry when facing a defense with an additional box defender (6.0).
An important secondary one is that the Seahawks' pass coverage suffers when that extra defender is dedicated to stopping the run. Seattle was 19th in the league in Total QBR allowed (56.1) and 25th in completion percentage (65.2 percent) when it loaded the tackle box.
Rodgers is also very adept at beating defenses that go this route. He ranked second among qualifying passers in Total QBR when facing a loaded tackle box (79.1) and had a 15-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that scenario.
Rodgers' injury isn't as limiting as it seems
Any suggestion that Rodgers' calf ailment will limit his ability to adjust to a loaded tackle box is more than offset by the fact that he ranked sixth in Total QBR when in the pocket against a loaded tackle box (76.6).
Rodgers also showed last week that even with his mobility limitations, he is still capable of being one of the most dangerous quarterbacks when out of the pocket. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Rodgers attempted only four passes from outside the pocket in the NFC divisional playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys, but two of those passes went for touchdowns. That makes Rodgers only the third quarterback since 2009 to throw multiple touchdown passes from outside the pocket in a postseason game.
Bottom line
Seattle's fast, hard-hitting defense can cover and cause turnovers as well or better than any defense in the NFL, but it really isn't at its best dealing with power rushing attacks. Rodgers may be Green Bay's most valuable player, but this defensive weakness means Lacy is the key to the Packers pulling off an upset and earning a berth in Super Bowl XLIX.