Insider free agency preview:
Top 50 free agents | Best fits for top FAs | Riskiest FAs | Best values | Five teams for Mario Williams | Vincent Jackson | Six teams in danger in FA
As we near NFL free agency, it's important to remember that free agents are evaluated for their performance not just on the field, but off it as well. A player can be extremely talented between the lines, but carry serious baggage, thus limiting the number of potential interested suitors. While this is a strong free agent class, particularly at wide receiver and defensive tackle, a lot of these players have areas of concerns.
Let's look at some free agents who could be risky acquisitions:
1. WR Vincent Jackson
Jackson could be the most talented guy to hit the open market, with a combination of size, speed, and big-play production that intrigues a lot of NFL teams. While he has a good rapport with Norv Turner and quarterback Philip Rivers, his relationship with the front office in San Diego has been rocky. The risk with Jackson isn't so much on the field, but off it, as he's the owner of two DUIs. While he has behaved well over the past couple seasons, he's one more infraction from a major suspension. That may make some general managers leery of giving him a big, multi-year contract.
2. QB Matt Flynn
Everybody loves the way Flynn played at the end of the season in place of Aaron Rodgers, but is he a one-year wonder? Scouts that I talked to are split on Flynn's potential. One the one hand, it looks like his skills are real and he is at least an above-average quarterback. But he also has been trained in a terrific offense, with a phenomenal group of receivers. How much of his success is the result of the scheme that he was a part of in Green Bay? With former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin running the show in Miami, whether the Dolphins decide to sign him may tell us if he is the real deal -- assuming of course they don't get Peyton. Is Flynn another Kevin Kolb? That's the question GMs must try and decide.
3. WR Mario Manningham
Did Manningham finally coming into his own as a big-play receiver last year, or is he a guy who simply made a great catch in the Super Bowl that leads us to overrate him? He has natural skills, but inconsistency has plagued him in the past and the fact that he played next to a pair of elite receivers in New York allowed him to get favorable single coverages -- that could go away if he goes to a team where he is a No. 1, or even No. 2, receiver. Can he beat a No. 1 cornerback? One NFL personnel director I talked to believed that he could struggle to get separation if he's a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver against a solid press corner.
4. RB Peyton Hillis
Where is the player that we saw two years ago who ran with power and intensity, and dominated run defenses? At his best, Hillis is great running between the tackles, but he really has only one outstanding year on his résumé. Injuries and contract concerns plagued him in 2011 and potential suitors may worry about his frame of mind. He had a ton of off-the-field issues last season, including missing a game because of strep throat, which didn't win him any votes in the locker room. It doesn't look like Cleveland wants to keep him, but how much does he have left in the tank, both physically and mentally?
5. RB Cedric Benson
Benson is an aging back with a lot of miles on his 30-year-old body, and he doesn't really fit in the Bengals' West Coast offense. He wants to be in a scheme where he has a heavy workload, but can he hold up physically? And what team would want to give that workload to a back with 300-plus carries two of the past three seasons who averaged 3.83 yards a carry over that period. He can be an effective inside power runner, but speed, burst, and ball security are issues for a guy who looks like a two-down back at best. He can't threaten the second level and isn't going to give a team much as a receiver.
6. DE John Abraham
Abraham has been a very productive pass rusher for a long time, but he may be closer to the end of his career than a lot of people realize. He did have 9.5 sacks in 2011, but several scouts mentioned to me that many of those sacks came in bunches versus inferior offensive linemen. Abraham has a lot of wear and tear on his body and it wouldn't be surprising to see his production decline rapidly. A big contract given to Abraham would more be paying him for what he's done in the past, rather than what he will do in the future.
7. C Chris Myers
Myers is a solid player and fits perfectly in the Texans' zone blocking scheme. But therein lies the problem. Can he succeed in another system? He doesn't have great size or power, and that may not translate to another team where power blocking and being physical are necessary qualities. However, if he stays in Houston there is no risk and the Texans' solid run game should stay intact. The Texans would be wise to re-sign him, as he's a more critical part of Houston's success in the run game than people realize.