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Projecting Peyton Manning's impact | Best fits for top FAs | Best/worst franchise tag uses | Matt Flynn is overrated | Five teams for Mario Williams | Vincent Jackson
NFL teams turn over roughly 25 percent of their rosters every season. That means a typical 53-man roster from Week 17 of last season would have about 15 players who were with the team to start 2009. So from 2003 to 2009, the Indianapolis Colts would have employed roughly 143 different players, as well as two different coaches. Amid this turnover, the Colts were a model of consistency, winning 12 or more games for an NFL-record seven consecutive seasons.
That's good. In fact, no other team has ever come close. It nearly doubles the similar streak by the 1992-95 Dallas Cowboys and is quietly the most dominant regular-season stretch we'll ever see. Some perspective: The Browns won 12 games in a season once since 1949; the Colts did it seven straight years. That all revolves around Peyton Manning, of course. Including the 2001 season, Manning started every game of a 12-year stretch in which the Colts won 10-plus games 11 times. He has only one ring, but Manning has actually been the steadiest (combining health and performance) season-to-season winner to ever play.
He has the highest weighted career value, and his career winning percentage is fifth all-time. Those would be even better, discounting a 3-13 rookie season in which he started every game. The evidence points to this: If healthy, Manning will make your team win. The sources I have confirm Manning can be a healthy QB in 2012. He's played for too long, with so many players and under enough coaches, with the same results to argue otherwise.
How much would a healthy Manning help eight possible suitors? We asked AccuScore for some projections. We'll offer the reasoning behind what we see.
We used Kevin Kolb as the control here, and suffice to say Manning is a massive improvement. Arizona QBs completed 55.8 percent of passes in 2011; Manning hasn't completed less than 62 percent since his rookie season. His presence makes the Cardinals the odds-on favorite in the NFC West, even ahead of the Niners, who are expected to be good but regress a tad in 2012.
Given the weapons in the passing game, the improved offensive line play (which should allow the Dolphins to both run and keep Manning upright) and weather that will affect the passing game about as much as a dome, the Dolphins are a good fit for Manning based on the metrics. They become a likely 10-win team immediately if they get him. It should be noted that Reggie Bush also offers a pass-catching element out of the backfield, something Manning hasn't really had since Edgerrin James, who caught 50-plus passes six times in Indy.
Since Manning was drafted, the Redskins have started Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Patrick Ramsey, Tony Banks, Shane Matthews, Mark Brunell, Danny Wuerffel, Tim Hasselbeck, Gus Frerotte, Jeff George, Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Donovan McNabb, John Beck and Rex Grossman. Add those all up and, well, you have the Washington Redskins since Manning was drafted. If it isn't Robert Griffin III, Manning is such a dramatic upgrade it's laughable. But he might not fit with Mike Shanahan's plan.
The Seahawks might be content to stick with Tarvaris Jackson for another year after a season in which he defined the "promising flashes if not steady play" narrative. And it's hard to envision Manning heading to the Pacific Northwest, not merely on location, but because GM John Schneider has a track record of finding diamonds in the rough, not entering a bidding war for the Hope Diamond. Still, Manning's presence would make Seattle a very slight leader in the division, even ahead of the Niners. Would the Seahawks enter the bidding simply because Arizona could too?
The model might sell the Chiefs a little short, but that's because it's built off 2011, when Kansas City was missing several impact players. Manning might make more sense here than people realize, and we forget that Joe Montana went to a Pro Bowl in his first year as a Chief. (Just sayin'.) Romeo Crennel also refused to dismiss the idea that the Chiefs would be interested when we spoke to him at the NFL combine.
The word we hear is the Browns won't get into the bidding for Manning if they don't land the rights to draft RG3 (in which they have a distinct advantage in what they can offer in draft-pick compensation). And Manning might be less inclined to head to a division with Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. But it's clear he'd be a massive upgrade for the Browns.
The Jets don't gain appreciably as a likely division winner, thanks to New England, but their playoff hopes get a big jolt. Tom Moore -- Manning's only offensive coordinator in his NFL career (think about that) -- is already on the payroll, and neither Rex Ryan nor GM Mike Tannenbaum would shoot down the idea last week. It would be a circus, but the Jets would be far better, according to the numbers. Tannenbaum is also the guy who brought in ol' No. 4 to run the show a few years ago, if you'll recall.
San Francisco fans are sick of hearing it, but when you go plus-28 in turnover margin, there won't be a single model that projects improvement. Only two teams have exceeded that margin since the merger, and each regressed the following season. That in no way implies this is a bad team with Alex Smith, just not a likely 13-win team. There are no clear indications the 49ers will be a suitor for Manning, but he makes them a very heavy favorite for the division, winning in nearly 91 percent of simulations. If "win now" is a sticking point for Manning, it would be hard to do better than San Francisco.
Chris Sprow is a senior editor for ESPN Insider. He reports and edits on many sports and works year-round with Mel Kiper on NFL draft coverage. He also oversees ESPN's Rumor Central and has been a regular guest on ESPN networks in that role. You can find his ESPN archives here and find him on Twitter here.