BILL WALSH ALWAYS BELIEVED that pro football should evolve into a game played primarily through the air. Now, nearly a quarter century after the legendary 49ers coach introduced the West Coast offense, Walsh's pass-happy vision is becoming reality. Through Week 13, NFL quarterbacks were completing 20.5 passes per game, tied for most all-time, and teams were averaging 230.1 passing yards per game, destroying the previous mark of 221.6 that was set just last year. In 1978, the year before Walsh took over the 49ers, teams averaged 158.8 passing yards per game.
So why are these records under fire? One obvious answer is the lockout. As a result of the shortened preseason, run-blocking was atrocious in the first month of the season, the worst I've seen in my nine years of analyzing tape of every NFL game. Take the Titans, for example: Behind a revamped run-blocking scheme (O-coordinator Chris Palmer switched Tennessee from man-to-man to zone blocking), the Titans averaged a paltry 2.4 yards per
The shortened preseason also handcuffed defensive coordinators. It's much harder to scheme complex blitzes and pass coverage than pure run defense, so most coaches employed vanilla play calls in the early going. That left all sorts of coverage creases that were expertly exploited by such teams as the Packers, Patriots and Saints, who boast superstar QBs and returned their top four receivers.
Another factor? Due to a rash of injuries among elite cornerbacks, receivers throughout the league are lining up against some sketchy defenders. Of my 10 highest-rated cornerbacks entering the year, only three (Ronde Barber, Darrelle Revis, Asante Samuel) have played in every game. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Patriots, whose secondary is giving up an NFL-worst 310 yards per game, up from 259 in 2010. By Week 13, the Pats were starting Nate Jones, a safety they signed off the street, alongside wideout Matthew Slater, with punt returner/receiver Julian Edelman as their nickel back. And this is a surefire playoff team.
But the rise of the pass is not just due to short-term trends. It's also the result of the passers themselves. The NFL will never have 32 franchise quarterbacks -- there will always be a few Rex Grossmans and Tarvaris Jacksons -- but the league has never had this many quality passers at the same time. Three QBs -- Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- have a chance to shatter Dan Marino's single-season record of 5,084 passing yards, a hallowed mark that has stood for 26 years. Rodgers also has a shot at the records for single-season TD passes (50) and QB rating (121.1). Brees is a solid bet to become the first QB ever to complete 460 passes in a season.
The average NFL quarterback now produces 7.2 yards per pass attempt, which matches the best mark ever, set in 1983. A record eight passers -- the big three, plus Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and the now-injured Matt Schaub -- are racking up at least 8.0 yards per attempt. Overall, QBs are throwing about 8 percent more passes than back in 1983, yet the leaguewide interception rate of 2.9 percent is the second-lowest since the AFL-NFL merger. Think about that for a second: Despite more pass attempts, productivity is as high as it's ever been, and mistakes are extremely low. That'd be like Darren Sproles maintaining his whopping 6.8 yards per carry and zero fumbles per game while running it 20 times a game instead of the 5.3 times he does now.
Quarterbacks all over the league are lighting up the passing tree, executing everything from Walsh's beloved dink-and-dunk scheme to the vertical attack championed by Sid Gillman and Don Coryell. Matthew Stafford could throw for 3,000 yards on short passes alone (10 yards or fewer). Rodgers boasts a perfect QBR on throws of 21 yards or more. Manning has already reached 1,000 yards on such passes, and Newton is on pace to do the same. Newton and fellow rookie Andy Dalton could become the first rookie QB duo to throw for 3,000 yards each.
Now just imagine if Newton and Dalton continue their remarkable progress. Imagine if college QBs Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin III and Landry Jones are as good as projected. Imagine if Peyton Manning returns next season at full strength.
Forget the Year of the Pass. Don't be surprised if 2011 is Year One of the Decade of the Pass.
KC Joyner is a columnist for ESPN Insider and a contributing writer for ESPN The Magazine. Follow The Mag on Twitter, @ESPNmag, and like us on Facebook.