No NFL team is without weaknesses. Even the best of the best in the playoff standings have areas which need improvement. However, flaws -- in degree and significance -- tend to be a bigger problem for teams that are on the playoff bubble. Every win matters, particularly down the stretch, but clubs don't want their biggest problems rearing their ugly heads in the most important games.
There aren't many teams on the playoff bubble. Nine spots have already been clinched and six AFC teams have a 90% chance or better of making the playoffs, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). That leaves only six teams which FPI gives between a 15% and 90% chance of making the postseason. Let's look at those teams and pick one concerning trend each needs to fix if it hopes to make the postseason.
Note: Rankings below do not include stats from Week 17 games.
Jump to a team:
ATL | DEN | IND
LAR | SEA | TB
Los Angeles Rams
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 81.1%
Concerning trend: Defense on deep passes
In the official NFL play-by-play, passes of 15 air yards or more are considered deep passes. The Rams rank 12th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) on passes that are 15 air yards or shorter, but they fall to 26th on deep passes. Injuries at cornerback have been a factor, and the Rams have a rookie starting free safety in third-rounder Kamren Kinchens.
The good news is that Los Angeles has been a little better against these passes in recent weeks. Since their Week 6 bye, the Rams have been an average defense against deep passes, partially because they're playing two-high coverage more often.
The bad news is that deep throws are a strength of the last two quarterbacks the Rams will face in the regular season -- the Cardinals' Kyler Murray and the Seahawks' Geno Smith. In Week 2, Murray completed six of seven deep attempts against L.A. for 177 yards and three touchdowns. In Week 9, Smith completed six of eight deep throws against the Rams for 177 yards and two touchdowns, plus the Rams had a 23-yard defensive pass interference penalty.
Denver Broncos
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 75.1%
Concerning trend: Third-down pass defense
Guided by defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, the Broncos have one of the NFL's top defenses. Denver has ridden that defense and strong special teams into the playoff hunt, while the offense has mostly stayed out of the way. The Broncos rank 20th in offensive DVOA, but their defense is first against the run and sixth against the pass. However, the defense has struggled on third down all season. They rank 22nd in DVOA on third and fourth downs against the pass, compared to eighth against first-down passes and third against second-down passes.
The Week 16 loss to the Chargers illustrated the problem. Los Angeles converted five of eight third-down dropbacks, which included four completions and a 16-yard scramble by quarterback Justin Herbert that led to an insurance touchdown.
Unsurprisingly, Broncos opponents have stayed away from star cornerback Pat Surtain II on third down. Through Week 16, opponents completed 59 yards of passes against Surtain in coverage on third and fourth downs. In comparison, they completed 250 yards of passes against nickel corner Ja'Quan McMillian and 228 yards against Riley Moss (who hasn't played since Week 12). Cornerback Levi Wallace, who has since been waived, was burned on four third-down conversions by Browns quarterback Jameis Winston when he filled in as an injury replacement for Moss in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 56.4%
Concerning trend: Beating man coverage
Baker Mayfield ranks 19th in QBR this season, but the Buccaneers are doing a fine job of getting the ball downfield. They rank seventh in pass offense DVOA. But they've also had issues beating man coverage, especially since wide receiver Chris Godwin suffered a dislocated left ankle in Week 7.
According to FTN Fantasy charting, Mayfield ranks 33rd of 42 qualified quarterbacks in DVOA against man coverage since Week 7. Mike Evans, the Bucs' other star receiver, hasn't been the issue, as he has a 28.5% DVOA against man coverage this season. The problem is everyone else. Receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan, along with tight end Cade Otton, all have negative DVOA ratings against man looks.
This weakness will be tested by Tampa Bay's final two opponents. The Saints run man coverage at a higher rate than almost any other defense in the league and are better than the NFL average, even after trading away cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the deadline. Carolina also runs man coverage at an above-average rate but has a below-average performance when doing so.
Atlanta Falcons
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 50.5%
Concerning trend: Middling pass rush
The Falcons ranked 32nd in pass rush win rate in 2023. And although they passed on drafting a pass rusher with the eighth overall pick -- taking starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. instead -- the Falcons took defensive linemen in the second and fourth rounds (Ruke Orhorhoro and Brandon Dorlus, respectively), then traded for Patriots edge rusher Matthew Judon (career best 15.5 sacks in 2022).
Things haven't improved much. The Falcons are 28th in pass rush win rate (33.8%) this season and have the fewest sacks in the NFL (26). Judon has only 4.5 sacks, while Kaden Elliss and Arnold Ebiketie lead the Falcons with five sacks each. The Falcons are also 31st in pressure rate. Blitzing hasn't helped, as the Falcons have the worst defensive DVOA in the NFL when they send more than four pass rushers.
At this point, the Falcons can't really add more pass rush. They have to hope the secondary can hold up without being helped by QB pressures -- and rely on Penix and the offense to outscore opponents.
Seattle Seahawks
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 18.9%
Concerning trend: Red zone offense
Variable red zone performance is a tenet of football analytics. Over time, extreme red zone performance tends to regress toward the team's overall performance. If you're a good offense, you're going to be good in the red zone. If you're a bad offense, you're going to struggle there.
The Seahawks have not received this memo. This is the third straight season where the Seahawks have been much worse in the red zone than their offense is as a whole. In the first 80 yards of the field, the Seahawks rank 18th in DVOA. In the red zone, that drops to 26th. Last season, they ranked 30th in the red zone. Two years ago, they were 28th. Seattle changed offensive coordinators this season, but the red zone issues remain.
The connecting tissue is quarterback Geno Smith, who is having his worst season in the red zone since joining the Seahawks. Smith has completed just five passes -- all touchdowns -- on 24 pass attempts inside the opposing 10-yard line. He has thrown two interceptions, one of which was a pick-six by the Rams in Week 9, and he took a 15-yard sack on fourth-and-goal against the Jets in Week 13.
Some of the theory is that Smith is pressing too hard because the running game is also having problems getting the ball into the end zone from inside the 20. The Seahawks have averaged only 1.7 yards per carry on designed runs in the red zone, the third-worst mark in the NFL. So neither part of the offense is working well inside the opposing 20, and that's a problem.
Indianapolis Colts
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 15.7%
Concerning trend: Pass offense
Pass offense is a pretty big category, but the entire concept is a problem for the Colts. Indianapolis ranks between 13th and 15th in DVOA for run offense, run defense, pass defense and special teams. But the Colts rank 25th in pass offense DVOA. If they don't make the playoffs this season, the blame falls on the passing game.
Things have been worse with Anthony Richardson at quarterback than they were with Joe Flacco. Richardson has incredible rushing skills and is also good at avoiding sacks. The problem is throwing the football. Richardson ranks 32nd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in passing EPA, barely ahead of the Titans' Will Levis. Richardson is ridiculously behind every other qualifying QB in completion percentage. He's completing 48% of his passes this season, while every other quarterback is above 60%.
Some of that low completion rate is due to Richardson throwing more deep passes than everyone else, as he leads the NFL with an average depth of target of 12.4 yards (no other quarterback is above 10). But even when adjusting for these deep throws, Richardson is way behind. NFL Next Gen Stats lists his CPOE (completion percentage over expected) as minus-11.3, the lowest figure in the NFL by nearly a percentage point over Saints rookie Spencer Rattler (minus-10.4).