- Close
senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels.
- Close
ESPN- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
We're through all six games of the NFL's wild-card weekend to kick off the playoffs. On Saturday, the Texans opened with a 32-12 victory over the Chargers in a game that featured seven total turnovers, and the Ravens beat the division-rival Steelers 28-14. To finish off the AFC's wild-card matchups, the Bills topped the Broncos 31-7 on Sunday afternoon. Then in the NFC playoffs, the Eagles rolled 22-10 past the Packers, and the Commanders edged the Buccaneers 23-20 on a walk-off field goal. The Rams' 27-9 win against the Vikings on Monday completed the divisional round bracket.
What are the lessons from each matchup, and what's next for these teams? We asked NFL analyst Ben Solak and national insider Dan Graziano to help size up the opening six playoff matchups and look forward from all angles. For each wild-card game, Ben answered one big remaining question and Dan judged the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let's jump in, making sense of Sam Darnold's future, Jayden Daniels' impact, the Packers' first-round loss, Josh Allen's recent play, the Steelers' next steps and Justin Herbert's four-interception day.
Jump to a matchup:
Vikings-Rams | Commanders-Bucs
Packers-Eagles | Broncos-Bills
Steelers-Ravens | Chargers-Texans
Rams 27, Vikings 9
Overreaction? Sam Darnold just played his last game with the Vikings.
Not an overreaction. If you were looking for clear evidence that the Vikings need to let Darnold leave as a free agent and move on to J.J. McCarthy, the past two weeks have offered plenty. He posted an abysmal 17.4 QBR and completed 43.9% of his passes in Minnesota's Week 18 loss to Detroit, which relegated the Vikings to wild-card status while the Lions got the NFC's No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Then Darnold looked like his old, jittery self in Monday night's playoff loss to the Rams. He took six sacks and turned the ball over twice in the first half alone while L.A. built a 24-3 halftime lead. The Vikings' season quickly plunged into a hole, and they couldn't climb out of it. He finished with 245 passing yards, one TD throw, one interception and nine sacks.
It must be said here that Darnold had a fantastic season. The Vikings don't win 14 games without him consistently making good decisions and delivering big-time throws when the team needed them. But he turned back into a pumpkin in Weeks 18 and 19. Even when Darnold was on top of the world a couple of weeks ago and looking at a potential deal in the $40-50 million per year range, it still didn't make sense for the Vikings to pivot from McCarthy to him. If you're playing roulette and you bet on the number 18 and it hits, you don't leave all of your chips on 18 for the next spin. You cash out.
If McCarthy -- the No. 10 pick last April -- isn't ready coming off his knee injury, Darnold himself is proof that you can trust coach Kevin O'Connell to find the bridge guy and get the most out of him in the meantime. If anything, the past two weeks have provided the Vikings with an obvious off-ramp that they should have been planning to take all along. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Can the Rams' defense repeat this against the Eagles?
The Rams had arguably their best defensive performance of the season in their wild-card win. They posted a minus-0.52 EPA per dropback allowed with a 36.4% success rate surrendered. That's a far cry from the 0.36 EPA per dropback and 50% success rate they allowed to the Eagles' passing game just two months ago. By EPA per play, no offense has had a better game against the Rams' defense than Philadelphia.
The Eagles' and Vikings' offenses have some key differences. Philadelphia relies on the running game, not the passing game, to move the football. The Vikings' offensive line became a bit of a liability following the Christian Darrisaw injury, whereas the Eagles' offensive line remains the most dominant group in the league. Oh, and teams can't double receiver A.J. Brown the way they might shade coverage to Justin Jefferson -- WR2 DeVonta Smith is a few cuts above Jordan Addison.
But there is one key similarity: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is just as willing to hold on to the football for long dropbacks and invite some pressure as Sam Darnold. His time to throw of 3.13 seconds is one of just two longer than Darnold's 3.08 in the NFL. Hurts is unlikely to take nine sacks as Darnold did -- he took only one during the regular-season meeting -- but if the Rams can get him down three or four times, they can end drives and prevent the Eagles from running away with the game on offense. -- Solak
What's next: Los Angeles will play against the Eagles on the road next weekend (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock). The Rams lost 37-20 to the Eagles in November.
Commanders 23, Buccaneers 20
Overreaction? The Lions' banged-up defense is in trouble next week against Commanders QB Jayden Daniels.
Not an overreaction. I think the Lions will be fine. Coming off a bye, they have a strong chance to hang 40 points on this Washington defense without much trouble. But could Daniels, receiver Terry McLaurin and the rest of this Commanders offense make it a shootout? Absolutely.
Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn came up with a pressure plan in Week 18 that produced the worst game of Vikings QB Sam Darnold's season. But pressuring Daniels is a different type of task, and Daniels' fluid running ability isn't something Detroit sees every week from opposing QBs. Daniels was blitzed on 15 of his 40 dropbacks Sunday (38%), per ESPN Research, but he still went 10-for-15 and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt.
The Lions are getting healthier on defense, but they're still missing Aidan Hutchinson (leg) and several key players. And Daniels has proven he's not likely to be rattled by the significance of the game or the raucous Detroit crowd. Sunday night marked the third game this season in which Washington did not punt. The only other team with three such games this season? The Lions.
Again: I do not think the Lions have to be overly worried about losing to the Commanders, because I don't think Washington's defense has what it takes to slow down the Detroit offense. But it's entirely possible Daniels and the Commanders will keep this one interesting longer than Lions fans would like. And the Lions had better make sure they're up by more than one score come the fourth quarter. Daniels is amazing in the final frame; Sunday was his fifth winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime this season. -- Graziano
The lingering question: What happens with the Buccaneers' coaching staff?
Tampa Bay, without question, had a solid season. It went 10-7 and won the division title. Quarterback Baker Mayfield looked good, and plenty of young players contributed. But the fan base remains frustrated with head coach Todd Bowles, who has been shaky as a game manager and whose defense was the author of many of the Buccaneers' losses this season. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Liam Coen has already taken one head coaching interview with the Jaguars, and he might take more now that Tampa Bay is out of the playoffs.
I don't imagine there will be an immediate shakeup of the coaching staff, but if the Buccaneers enter next season with Bowles and no Coen, it's reasonable to expect that their offense takes a step back while their defense continues to struggle. Even the NFC South might be more challenging to win next season.
Of course, there are plenty of good playcalling offensive candidates the Bucs could look into if Coen leaves. Another branch off the Sean McVay coaching tree, such as Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur? Or perhaps they could bring back Brad Idzik, who left with Dave Canales to join the Panthers' coaching staff? Neither calls plays at their current job but would do so in Tampa Bay should Coen depart.
There are other lingering questions in the Buccaneers' offseason; receiver Chris Godwin is a free agent, and the defense needs support. But none can be answered before the coaching staff settles. -- Solak
What's next: The Commanders will play against the Lions next weekend on the road in Detroit (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox).
Eagles 22, Packers 10
Overreaction? This season was a disappointment for Jordan Love and the Packers.
Not an overreaction. Think back to August. There were plenty of people picking the Packers over the Lions to win the NFC North, and even those of us who weren't doing so admitted it was probably close. Instead, the Packers went a combined 0-4 against the Lions and Vikings, finished third in their division behind both of them and went out with a whimper in the wild-card round against the Eagles.
Sure, six of their seven losses were to teams that won at least 14 games and are still playing. But Love was supposed to elevate to MVP level this season, and he very much did not. He had what he needed around him. The Packers' defense was the best it has been in years. The offensive line was excellent. Running back Josh Jacobs, at cost, was at least as good a signing for Green Bay as Saquon Barkley was for the Eagles (and was even the better of the two backs in Sunday's game).
Sure, things might have gone differently in this one if receiver Christian Watson (knee) had been there, or if Romeo Doubs and/or Jayden Reed could have finished the game. But Doubs and Reed were healthy in the first half, when Love threw two interceptions while the Eagles were begging Green Bay to take the game from them. In the end, this was a letdown season for the Packers, who must now regroup and figure out how to restore Love's upward trajectory in 2025. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Is Jalen Hurts 100% healthy?
The Eagles' star quarterback missed the final two games of the regular season while in the concussion protocol, and there was some rust to knock off in his playoff performance against the Packers. He went 13-for-21 for 121 yards and two scores in a game the Eagles led from pole to pole. Unlike when he played the Packers in the regular season, he avoided the crippling turnovers, though he did take two bad sacks. But one of the touchdown drives came on a short field following a Packers fumble, and the second finished with a big catch and run from tight end Dallas Goedert. On six third downs of 5 or more yards, the Eagles called a true dropback only once. It was not a dominant game through the air at all.
Of course, that's not really the Eagles' formula. They run the ball, shorten the game and play great defense. So they don't need Hurts to sling it all over the yard. But we've seen multiple moments of A.J. Brown frustration this season, and we still haven't seen the Eagles' offense trail in the second half since Week 4. Against the Rams, a shootout becomes more likely, and the pressure on the passing game elevates. What happens if it's not the Eagles with the early takeaway next week, but rather the opponent?
Hopefully another week of full practice after a return to NFL action will settle Hurts in; just as we've seen the passing game idle this season, we've also seen it soar. But if there's any question about the Eagles making a postseason run, it's that. -- Solak
What's next: Philadelphia will play the Rams next weekend at home (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock).
Bills 31, Broncos 7
Overreaction? This is the best version of Josh Allen we've ever seen.
Not an overreaction. Allen might not be as perpetually spectacular as he was in past seasons, but he's still more than capable of being spectacular when it's necessary. Case in point: The third-quarter touchdown pass to running back Ty Johnson. But what's different with Allen -- after a regular season in which he was far better than ever before at avoiding turnovers and sacks -- is how totally in command he is of an offense that isn't always Allen-centric.
"He's really been calm and confident and relaxed and not feeling like he's got to do everything all the time," Bills GM Brandon Beane told me before this game. "He still finds a way to make those clutch plays. But in the past, if we'd go scoreless on three or four drives in a row, you might see him coming in and trying to force things, and I don't think you see that anymore."
Allen made the evolution the Bills needed him to make this season after they traded receiver Stefon Diggs. The result is an offense Allen totally controls that can beat you in different ways. The Bills are extremely proud that they tied a record this season for the most players catching touchdown passes (13), and Allen's poise and calm confidence are obviously at the center of that. Sunday's run-centric, grind-it-out game plan was what this game called for, and the Bills stuck with it even when it wasn't yet yielding results. That shows maturity, and in a lot of ways it makes Allen and the Buffalo offense scarier than ever. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Will the Bills' run game be the difference against the Ravens?
The Ravens and Bills dominated on the ground in their respective wild-card matchups. Baltimore had 50 carries for 299 yards and a 50% success rate on designed rushes; Buffalo had 44 carries for 210 yards and a 54.1% success rate of its own. Now these two teams are set for a rematch of their Week 4 game that the Ravens dominated.
In that matchup, Baltimore jumped out to a 21-3 lead after just three drives, and that huge deficit largely eliminated the Bills' rushing attack from the offensive menu. Buffalo running back James Cook had only nine carries against the Ravens, and even Allen was relatively quiet on the ground, with five carries for 21 yards. On Sunday against the Broncos, though, Cook had 23 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, while Allen ran eight times for 46 yards.
The Bills' run game has been improving all season. Buffalo has increasingly relied on jumbo sets, bringing in sixth offensive lineman Alec Anderson as a supersized tight end. And in the postseason, we know the Bills are far more willing to include Allen in the designed running game. But the real story is an enormous, dominant offensive line that has stayed healthy all season. It bullied the Broncos, who were the best run defense in the NFL by success rate during the regular season. Now, the line must bully the Ravens, who were second best, to keep Lamar Jackson on the sideline and prevent another big first-half deficit from appearing. -- Solak
What's next: The Bills will host the Ravens next weekend (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+), as Allen faces his main competition for MVP in Jackson.
Ravens 28, Steelers 14
Overreaction? The Ravens are going to win the Super Bowl!
This is an overreaction, but only because I'm not ready to do the Chiefs and the Lions, both of whom have first-round byes, like that. I will freely admit it's hard to imagine any team beating the Ravens when they look the way they've looked on both sides of the ball over the past month. Lamar Jackson -- who might win his third regular-season MVP later this month -- might well turn out to be the best football player any of us have ever seen, and they almost didn't need him to win Saturday.
This Baltimore offense can beat teams a bunch of different ways, and the way it chose Saturday was "physical humiliation." Its second touchdown drive of the game covered 85 yards in 13 plays, all of which were runs. At one point, Ravens tight end Mark Andrews received a direct snap and just ran for 3 yards. It might have been the most disrespectful drive in NFL postseason history.
But this was an out-of-gas Steelers team that was playing over its head when it was in first place a month and a half ago. Baltimore should have been able to beat Pittsburgh with one hand tied behind its back. As a longtime Jackson fan, I'm as fired up as anyone about this team's chances to do what the 2023 Ravens couldn't. But Saturday was just a warmup. Jackson has never won two games in a single postseason, and his next one will have a lot more to say about whether this is his Super Bowl season. -- Graziano
The lingering question: Will this loss finally lead to major changes in Pittsburgh?
With their loss to the Ravens, the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers have now lost their past six postseason games and have not won any playoff games since 2016. Frustrations are high with the fan base and certainly within the building as well.
The first and biggest change in Pittsburgh has nothing to do with the coach, but the quarterback. The first few playoff losses came with an aging Ben Roethlisberger at the helm; the past couple have come with Mason Rudolph and Russell Wilson. The Roethlisberger era likely lasted too long, but in its wake, Pittsburgh missed on Kenny Pickett with the No. 20 pick in 2022 and some free agents with Wilson and Justin Fields. The coach of the 2025 Steelers, along with general manager Omar Khan, simply must make a greater investment in the quarterback position than the team has made in the past several years.
The second potential change trickles down from the first: Who will be responsible for that quarterback's development? Coordinator Arthur Smith got a lot out of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee in 2019 and 2020 but has struggled since. Tomlin is not an offensive mastermind -- he can't puppet the quarterback position the way other, offensive-minded head coaches can. If he is unwilling to take a big swing at quarterback -- in free agency or in the draft -- Pittsburgh will remain stuck in the mud of his own making. -- Solak
What's next: The Ravens travel to Buffalo next weekend to face the Bills (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount+). Baltimore rolled past Buffalo in Week 4, winning 35-10.
Texans 32, Chargers 12
Overreaction? Justin Herbert is a quarterback who falls apart in the playoffs.
I say yes, overreaction. I watched Herbert's game Saturday. It was awful. He threw three interceptions in the entire regular season and then four in this game. That is, for those who don't like to do math, a poor ratio. Until Saturday, he hadn't had a single game in the NFL or in college in which he'd thrown three interceptions.
This was a game the Chargers could and probably should have taken control of in the first quarter, when they shut out the Texans after 15 minutes. They couldn't, and by the time they needed Herbert to play them back into the game, he was playing even worse. Combine Saturday's 14-for-32 catastrophe with his three-sack, 47.7-QBR performance in the playoff game two years ago in which the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars, and Herbert's postseason career is off to a lousy start.
All of that said, Houston's defense was absolutely dominant, and this L.A. team probably played above its roster talent all season. Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh/Joe Hortiz tandem should surround Herbert with a better cast to help compete against seasoned playoff teams. Saturday was heinous, but the fact that Herbert and the Chargers were there in the first place was a success.
The Chargers are ahead of schedule, and Herbert has shown enough in his larger sample that I'm not worried about his ability to deliver in the playoffs in the future. Yet. -- Graziano
The lingering question: What is offensive coordinator Greg Roman actually bringing to the Chargers?
The wild-card loss to the Texans was a bad day for everyone on the Chargers' offense not named Ladd McConkey, and lots of personnel help is needed this offseason. But the lack of schematic relief from Roman's offense was glaring. Without a dual-threat quarterback -- as he had in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson (2017-22) and San Francisco with Colin Kaepernick (2011-14) -- Roman's legacy as a clever run game schemer starts to fade. There continued to be no easy targets in the passing game, as Herbert had near season highs in both pressure rate -- he was pressured on exactly half of his 36 dropbacks -- and time to throw (average of 3.1 seconds). The Chargers' offensive line was underwater for most of the game, and relief never came from the playcalling.
I don't think the Chargers will move on from Roman this offseason, but it's worth wondering: Can he do a better job coaching around the players he has and their deficiencies? And if not, will Jim Harbaugh end up looking for a more modern offensive coordinator who actually puts stress on NFL defenses?
By opening up a search beyond Roman, who has always been the first page in the Harbaugh Rolodex, he should find plenty of playcallers eager to work with Herbert. Hire a chip off the old Shanahan or McVay block. Hire an offensive head coach castoff in need of a new gig. Anyone who has built a modern, successful NFL passing game before. -- Solak
What's next: The Texans will play at No. 1-seeded Kansas City in the divisional round (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). The Chiefs -- who will be coming off a bye -- beat Houston 27-19 in December.