It's Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season, and if you're looking for some last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered at the 11th hour.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and who could be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen pointing to five potential surprises and NFL analyst Ben Solak picking one team on upset watch. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
Let's dive in, starting with a potential matchup advantage for Patrick Mahomes.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Upset watch
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Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine Week 15 winners
Will Patrick Mahomes take deep shots against the Browns' single-high coverage?
Opponents using two-high coverage to stop Mahomes from throwing downfield was once a frequent talking point. In general it makes sense, as just 8% of dropbacks against two-high coverage result in 20-plus air yard pass attempts, compared to 11% against single-high coverage. But the trend hasn't played out for Mahomes this season. He has thrown 20-plus air yards on 7% of attempts against both two-high and single-high coverage.
This is the week where Mahomes can revert to his past strength. Cleveland plays two-high coverage at the lowest rate of any team (28% of the time), and it leads the league in yards allowed per reception (12.8). He should take a shot when he gets the chance.
Can Calais Campbell cause enough disruption to help Miami defeat Houston?
Campbell has seemingly found the fountain of youth as a 38-year-old defensive lineman. He has the league's fifth-highest pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (13%) and four sacks this season. Now he faces the Texans' interior offensive line, which has struggled this year.
He should most frequently face Shaq Mason, who has not maintained his elite level of play with age. Mason's 89% pass block win rate ranks 52nd out of 61 qualifying guards, setting up Campbell for a big day of getting after C.J. Stroud.
Who will win between the Seahawks' pass protection and the Packers' pass rush?
In Weeks 1-9, Seattle's 53% pass block win rate ranked 25th in the NFL. But after the Seahawks' Week 10 bye, Geno Smith has enjoyed a 69% pass block win rate that ranks ninth in that span. The biggest help was the return of right tackle Abraham Lucas from knee surgery. His 90% pass block win rate has been a massive upgrade over Stone Forsythe (79%) and Michael Jerrell (83%).
On the other side of the ball is a similar story. The Packers' pass rush was lackluster before their Week 10 bye, with a 32% pass rush win rate that ranked 29th. Since Week 11, they're up to 44%, which ranks sixth in that span. Green Bay improved because of increased pass-rushing efficiency across the board. The Packers have gotten higher win rates out of Rashan Gary, Karl Brooks and Kingsley Enagbare, who has a 24% pass rush win rate in a limited sample since Week 11. This will be an exciting battle in the trenches between the teams.
Can the Saints stop the Commanders' play-action?
The Commanders employed play-action on 42% of their dropbacks in a bounce-back win over the Titans. That was their second-highest play-action rate in a game this season, but it isn't unusual to see Washington utilize that lever -- the Commanders' season-long play-action rate of 30% ranks fourth among all teams.
They actually haven't been quite as efficient as you'd think on play-action, but there's a good chance they could be against the Saints. Despite ranking fifth in EPA allowed per dropback against non-play-action plays, the Saints rank 28th versus play-action. Expect to see plenty of play fakes from Washington on Sunday.
Will the Raiders use 11 personnel against the Falcons?
With slot receiver DJ Turner on injured reserve, the Raiders played 11 personnel -- one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers -- just 19% of the time against the Buccaneers. That was the lowest of any team in Week 14 and far below their 62% season average prior to that game.
This Monday night, the Raiders have good reason to rely on 11 personnel. Falcons slot cornerback Dee Alford is allowing 1.6 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender this season, which is the second most among slot corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He has also allowed 28 expected points added as the nearest defender, which is the highest of all slot corners.
So who could benefit? The logical candidate is wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, who played the most snaps out of the slot for Las Vegas in Week 14.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you can start this week
Tank Bigsby, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (42.4% rostered)
Bigsby has been efficient alongside Travis Etienne Jr. in the Jaguars' RB committee approach. He has averaged 16.1 fantasy points in games where he has double-digit touches this season. He is one of the best backs in the league in yards after contact and is Jacksonville's primary rusher (Etienne mostly handles passing downs).
With Mac Jones under center, the Jaguars should lean heavily on the running game against the Jets. New York allows the fifth-most yards per rush (4.0).
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (41.4% rostered)
Rodgers showed up big for fantasy managers in Week 14. He snapped his 300-yard drought against the Dolphins and finally clicked with Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. The Jets now face a Jaguars defense that's giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Weather shouldn't be a factor, so expect Rodgers and the Jets' passing attack to keep thriving in Jacksonville.
Sincere McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (21.2% rostered)
McCormick has stepped up as the Raiders' lead back with Zamir White and Alexander Mattison sidelined due to injuries. In the past two games, he totaled 27 carries, topped 60 rushing yards in both matchups and averaged an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. Against a shaky Falcons defense, he's in a great spot to keep the momentum going.
Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (11.8% rostered)
Palmer is a sleeper to watch even if wide receiver Ladd McConkey is available after missing Week 14 with knee and shoulder injuries. Tampa Bay's defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to receivers this season. Against the Chiefs, Palmer had nine targets while Quentin Johnston had seven.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (4.5% rostered)
Young has looked sharp since getting the starting job back in Week 8. Over the past two games, he has also built solid chemistry with veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen, who recently returned from a hamstring injury.
With 16 or more fantasy points in two of his past three games, he's a solid option in superflex formats against the Cowboys. They allow the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Bowen: Don't be surprised if ...
Justin Herbert throws multiple touchdown passes against the Buccaneers
Herbert has thrown only three touchdown passes over his past four games, but I like his chances against Tampa Bay's defense. This season, the Bucs have allowed 253.4 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL) and surrendered 21 touchdown passes (10th most). And with how much three-deep zone coverage the Buccaneers play, Herbert can attack the seams early in the red zone.
Jalen Carter sacks Russell Wilson
Carter is sitting at 4.5 sacks on the season, but he has 23 pressures, including seven in his past two games. He should keep his momentum going in Week 15, winning his matchup against the interior of the Steelers' offensive line.
Sam LaPorta catches a touchdown against the Bills
LaPorta caught at least one touchdown in three of his past six games -- putting him at five TDs on the season -- and he has six or more targets in three straight. Keep an eye on LaPorta deep in the red zone Sunday, where he can be schemed open on a play-action throw.
Justin Reid intercepts Jameis Winston
Reid has just one interception on the season, but he can cash in here on tips and overthrows that result from Winston's aggressive mindset going downfield. Winston has thrown at least one interception in each of his past three games, reaching a total of six over that stretch.
Derrick Henry rushes for over 100 yards against the Giants
Henry has topped the 100-yard mark six times this season, and he's averaging 18.5 carries per game. Look for him to add another 100-yard day to his résumé versus a Giants defense that's giving up 141.7 rushing yards per game (29th in the league).
Solak: Favorite upset pick for Week 15
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Home underdogs? Winners of four straight, but home underdogs?
It's understandable. The last time we saw Seattle against a legit top-tier team, it got run out of its own stadium in a 31-10 loss to the Bills. But this Packers team is far from perfect. Green Bay's pass defense is last in success rate, and Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has been deadly in the true dropback situations. He's fifth in success rate and fourth in completion percentage there.
The Seahawks are more than capable of hanging in an aerial shootout, and if the recent improvement of their run defense is legit, then they can also control this game from pole to pole. The injury report is worth watching in this one -- Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander is out, and Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III is a big question mark -- but the schematic advantages lean Seattle's way this week.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Expect the Eagles to establish a rhythm for quarterback Jalen Hurts early in their game against the Steelers, possibly with some quick-game throws and easily defined reads. The Steelers will be loosely prepared for that, while still expecting a rather large workload for running back Saquon Barkley and the league's best rushing attack. The Eagles' clear identity is a run-first team, but Hurts is averaging 166 passing yards per game over his past five outings, and it's clear to many around the league that he isn't seeing the field as well of late. He can change that starting Sunday.
"You have to be able to pass the ball effectively in December and January," an NFL coordinator told me. "[The Eagles] will always be a run-first team, but they will need that from [Hurts] moving forward."
Added an NFC executive: "I know what he's capable of. He has played better than he is now, he can still hurt you in a lot of ways, and I think he'll improve down the stretch."
Sources consider Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (knee) a long shot for Monday vs. Atlanta, but coach Antonio Pierce is leaving the light on for him, holding out hope in case there's a chance he can go. Injured reserve has not been a major consideration as of this week. "Still a chance he finishes the season for us," a team source said. O'Connell has been the most consistent quarterback for Las Vegas this season when healthy.
As Miami edge rusher Bradley Chubb eyes a return after missing the first three-plus months of the season, he detailed his serious knee injury to reporters. It turns out his injury was similar to what Dallas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown suffered: tears of the ACL, PCL and MCL. Chubb -- whom I'm told is not expected to make his debut this week -- can serve as a blueprint of sorts for Overshown's recovery.
The Patriots want to get receiver Ja'Lynn Polk going over these past four games, which ESPN's Mike Reiss pointed out on Friday. I'm told this is definitely a hope from some internally. Now is the time -- K.J. Osborn was released, and New England is sitting at 3-10 with no wide receiver surpassing 500 yards yet. Plus, the Cardinals are willing to play a healthy dose of zone coverage, against which Polk was known to thrive in college. Drake Maye and Polk have worked on their timing behind the scenes with hopes of connecting on a grander scale. They need momentum entering next season, and they can start building it against Arizona.
The Buccaneers and Chargers each have a key offensive playmaker with a questionable status for the Week 15 matchup, but there's some optimism here. Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving (back/hip) has been feeling better later this week and hopes to play, per a source. He reaggravated his hip pointer injury from a week ago but is trending in the right direction.
Chargers receiver Ladd McConkey (knee) did individual work in practices, an upgrade from last week, when he was a game-time call against the Chiefs but didn't make it back. The Chargers will monitor his progress over the weekend. With 815 yards, McConkey is within range of Keenan Allen's franchise record for rookie receiving yards (1,046).