There are 32 teams in the NFL, and nine have failed to win more than two games. We're more than halfway done with the 2024 season! What's happening to the sport I love? (Elite quarterback play is separating the haves and the have-nots is what's happening -- but that's a take for another column and another day.)
Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two, and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.
This week, we try to fix the broken Saints, preview what should happen on NFL trade deadline day and size up the Raiders' issues. Let's jump in.
Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: How to fix the Saints
Deadline wish list: What I want to see
Second Take: Never hire the interim coach
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 9 stats
Monday Night Mayhem
The Big Thing: How to fix the Saints
Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?
The New Orleans Saints are $68.4 million over the 2025 salary cap ceiling, per Roster Management Systems. That's a truly bananas number.
No NFL team has managed its salary cap space as aggressively as the Saints have done under general manager Mickey Loomis, and it's not remotely close. In the waning years of Drew Brees' career, through the twilight of the Sean Payton era and into the Dennis Allen addendum that ended Monday morning with Allen's firing, Loomis has not just spent aggressively -- he has consistently borrowed money from future cap years to make his current team cap compliant. Hence the $68.4 million he owes to the 2025 cap before the league year begins this coming March.
It's not just that the $68.4 million figure is towering; it's that the Saints have painted themselves into a corner. Because Loomis has used contract restructures at more than double the rate of the next-most-aggressive teams, the Saints don't even have any players to cut for immediate cap relief. Their roster is full of players with tiny non-guaranteed base salaries compared to inflated guaranteed signing bonuses that have been taken from future cap seasons. Loomis did all this to build a contender, and the Saints haven't seen a playoff game since 2020. Now, the bill comes due.
The Saints can and will get cap compliant in 2025, but it's going to be profoundly unpleasant. They should consider trading just about every player who can provide them relief. They will cut some beloved players (if they don't retire first). And it's going to require even more restructures in a grotesque ouroboros of future borrowing that can truly never be escaped.
Here's what the Saints need to consider and prioritize to become cap compliant in 2025 and beyond:
1. Hope someone retires
The biggest net positive the Saints can get on their 2025 salary cap comes from player retirement, which is an appropriately bleak sentence for the state of the Saints' cap. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, an excellent player who has been battling cartilage loss in his knee for several seasons now, hits the cap for about $29 million in 2025 and another $26.2 million in 2026. But he has missed the entire 2024 season with that knee injury and may retire as a result of it.
The Saints would likely try to process a Ramczyk retirement post-June 1 in 2025. This would allow them to save $18 million in 2025 and another $15.2 million in 2026. The Saints could also go the Brees route by converting the 2024 base salary into a signing bonus before Ramczyk officially retires, which would create an even greater 2025 cap relief (another $13.44 million in 2025, which would instead be paid up in 2026).
It is worth pointing out that should Ramcyzk's release/retirement be processed as a post-June 1 transaction, the Saints would have to carry his cap figure into the 2025 league year when it begins in March. If they're up against the cap ceiling (which, fellas, they are), they may not have the wiggle room to wait until June 1 to get Ramcyzk's deal off their books. If that isn't the sign of unhealthy cap management, I don't know what is.
If Ramcyzk wants to continue playing football, I don't see a world in which the Saints can keep him. Restructuring him would be wildly risky given his injury history and their current existing dead cap hit. I have to imagine they'd cut him, either with a pre- or post-June 1 designation.
Another potential retiree is defensive end Cameron Jordan, who hits the cap for $20 million next year in his age-36 season. Jordan clearly has lost a step and fallen down the Saints' pass rush rotation accordingly. Because the Saints have pushed so much of Jordan's money into future years, it would actually cost them more cap space in 2025 to cut him (or retire him) before June 1, so I'd expect Jordan will be one of their two post-June 1 designations, no matter what.
They absolutely cannot restructure him again; his contract is up in 2026, and I can't see him playing that much longer. This is just one pill they'll need to swallow ASAP. A post-June 1 cut or retirement would save the Saints $12.5 million in cap space, and they could get even more if they did a Brees-like restructure on his deal pre-retirement.
Last but not least: linebacker Demario Davis. At 35 years old, Davis is admirably holding his own, but it's reasonable to expect that retirement may come soon for the 13-year veteran. Davis represents a $4 million savings in 2025 as a post-June 1 cut, which isn't worth the squeeze. And it would cost more in dead cap if Davis is off the team in 2025 ($17.2 million) than it would if he stays on ($12.5 million). The Saints need to hope Davis wants to play for at least one more season so they only process his dead-cap money in 2026 ($8.7 million).
2. Figure out who is tradable in the next few hours
The fact that the Saints fired Allen right before the trade deadline indicates to me that they want to offload some deals before the bell rings at 4 p.m. ET. (Sure, it could just be the super-embarrassing loss to the Panthers, though. That would also make sense.)
When you trade a player's contract, only their base salaries and future roster bonuses become the financial responsibilities of the acquiring team. The original team is still responsible for the signing bonuses and restructures that have been prorated over many years of cap space. That's ... well, it's terrible news for the Saints. Because it means that trading many players would provide little to no immediate cap relief.
Take cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who is rumored to be in trade talks this week. By the numbers I see publicly available, trading Lattimore would save the Saints less than $400,000 against their 2025 cap. They'd save $600,000 this season and roll that space over into 2025, in which they'd actually take a bigger dead-cap hit ($31.7 million) with Lattimore off their roster than they would if they kept him on the roster ($31.4 million). The relief would only really start to come in 2026 and beyond, as all those void years and prorated bonuses accelerate onto the 2025 cap.
I think Lattimore could still be traded, as he'd return draft capital. But for the purposes of saving the Saints' cap as fast as possible, I wouldn't want to trade him on Tuesday. The best trade candidates for immediate cap relief are offensive tackle Trevor Penning, receiver Chris Olave, edge rusher Chase Young and quarterback Derek Carr.
Both Penning and Olave would save the Saints $3.4 million apiece if traded Tuesday -- not very exciting. I'd do it with Penning, who has struggled for the Saints and is unlikely to develop, in a heartbeat. Olave is a much trickier case. I'd have no interest in trading a great young wide receiver, but Olave seems very frustrated with the Saints, and the potential for a couple of Day 2 selections is very enticing. Perhaps future plans at quarterback would affect how aggressively I shopped Olave, as he might not want to return to the Saints in 2027 if Carr is still the quarterback at that time. (Spoiler: I pitched an Olave trade later in this column.)
To that point: Consider a "Bar Rescue" universe in which I am given the ability to make drastic, severe changes to the way the Saints are run. My first item of business would be trading Carr by lunchtime Tuesday.
Carr is not going to quarterback the new-era Saints to glorious heights. He is 33 years old and will be 36 when New Orleans reasonably expects to be competitive again. And the Saints don't even have him under contract beyond his age-35 season. Carr was the apple of Allen's eye, and Allen isn't the coach anymore. Nothing about Carr's play in recent seasons warrants a $30 million base salary in 2025, nor a $40 million base salary in 2026. He just isn't that caliber of player.
Because Carr is an average starter who comes with a hefty contract and a lot of wear on his tires, it might seem hard to find a buyer. You could go the route of the Brock Osweiler deal, where the Texans sent Osweiler and a second-round pick to the Browns in order to get his salary off their books. The Browns sent only a fourth-rounder back. The Texans elected to do that deal instead of restructuring Osweiler and borrowing from future seasons. Could the Saints do the same?
It would be very challenging, as trading Carr provides only $11.9 million in cap relief for 2025, far less space than restructuring him would create (all of his void years would jump onto the 2025 cap in the event of a trade). You'd need to know for sure how much money you were getting out of the Ramczyk and Jordan deals to start. Even then, I'm not entirely sure it's possible to get under the cap ceiling in 2025. Remember, we still don't know exactly what the cap ceiling will be next season.
But if it's doable, I think the Saints can and should do it. Getting Carr off the books for 2026 and beyond is an enormous step toward a rapid return to competitiveness. A lame duck at quarterback hampers the entire offensive roster, and eventually Carr would become a dead-cap anchor on the 2027 or 2028 or 2029 Saints. I'm confident that at least one desperate suitor would strike an Osweiler-ian deal for Carr's services over the next couple of seasons. The Titans are quarterback-less, as are the Panthers and Raiders. If you gave me Jim Irsay's personal cell number and an uninterrupted half hour, I really think I could convince the Colts to do it, too.
And finally, Chase Young. The Saints should absolutely trade him by the deadline. Young gets a $470,000 check for every game he's active this season -- it's not a game check from base salary but rather a roster bonus being paid out in the form of fully guaranteed game checks. This money is classified as "other amounts treated as signing bonus," because it is fully guaranteed. But as far as I can tell, because it's a per-active game roster bonus, the team that acquires Young would take on those checks for the remaining eight weeks of the season. (Believe it or not, I do touch grass sometimes, I promise.)
The brass tacks: The Saints can save $4.5 million in 2024 cap space, then roll that over into 2025, by trading Young on Tuesday. He's on a one-year deal right now with four void years attached, so the Saints either trade him now or extend him this offseason to keep that voided money buried in future years.
3. Restructure the big base salaries
The unfortunate reality of can-kicking is that once you start, it's hard to stop doing it. As the dead cap accumulates from all the void years and salary restructures done in the past, you have less cap space to work with now and need to restructure more base salary to survive.
Let's go back to Lattimore, who would only save around $600,000 if traded. Because Lattimore is due a base salary of $16 million next season, his contract is an excellent candidate for a restructure. By dropping that base salary number down to the minimum of $1.255 million and converting the outstanding $14.745 million into a signing bonus, the Saints can prorate that over five seasons and suddenly save $11.796 million in 2025. Sure, you're going to have to pay that money again somewhere down the road -- but the Saints need immediate relief, and Lattimore can far more easily provide that while on the team than off it. (New Orleans could also cut him and designate him as a post-June 1 release, of course, but it only gets two of those, and we've already designated them to Ramczyk and Jordan here.)
Lattimore is a better candidate for restructuring than many other Saints because he still has some good ball in him, and his 2025 base salary is big enough to provide meaningful relief. The same goes for center Erik McCoy, due $9.6 million in base salary next year in his age-28 season. You can get $6.7 million in a McCoy restructure and another $5.2 million in a Carl Granderson restructure. The Saints probably don't want to be spending 2029 money on 29-year-old Granderson in 2025, but because the roster is so old and bloated, they have to restructure where they can.
The most likely Saint to see his contract restructured is Carr, though. In the event that he is not traded tomorrow, it's nearly mathematically impossible for the Saints to get cap-compliant in 2025 without restructuring his $30 million base salary.
4. What to do with Taysom Hill?
Hill has an $18 million cap hit next season. He'll be 35 years old. Is he a 35-year-old tight end? I wouldn't pay that guy. Is he a 35-year-old running back? I wouldn't pay that guy, either.
The Saints wouldn't even save much money from trading him -- less than $1 million in 2025 cap space. And he's not going to return a good draft pick, so it won't be worth it anyway. (Watch Broncos coach Sean Payton prove me wrong at 2:57 p.m.)
Hill has $10 million in base salary. Do you restructure him? I mean, you have to, right? It's the only option. But then you're restructuring a 34-year-old who doesn't have a position! Why does he even have a $10 million base salary to begin with? Is anyone reading this? Am I OK?
5. Let the roster bleed out.
If you don't stop restructuring, you can't stop restructuring. When you already have so many void years on so many deals, what's adding a few more on running back Jamaal Williams' contract? Why can't safety J.T. Gray get a few? (That has actually happened, by the way. Those players have void years on their deals.)
It's time for the Saints to take their medicine. When a team kicks the can this far down the road, it eventually runs out of road -- and that's precisely where the Saints are: at the end of the road. It may feel smart to extend safety Tyrann Mathieu into 2029 to prevent his void years from accelerating in a vacuum, but it isn't. It's a slippery slope on a downward spiral into another abyss of future cap borrowing. Restructures can and often are a good tool in healthy roster management. But so is accumulating big draft classes to reset your roster -- just ask the Cardinals. So is a short-term prioritization of development over competitiveness, just to foster long-term competitiveness down the road -- just ask the Lions.
Be bad for a couple of seasons. (The Saints were going to be pretty bad anyway.) Let the dead-cap hits actually hit you. And come out the other side ready to spend and compete.
My trade deadline wish list
You're hoping for Super Bowl championships. I'm just hoping for splashy deadline deals involving Day 2 picks. We are not the same.
I love the NFL trade deadline, and I love the increased activity around it. I love inflated team optimism. (Yeah, the player your favorite team acquired in early November will definitely play 30 snaps per game.) I love when good players get away from toxic teams. (Roquan Smith to the Ravens is still the greatest trade deadline acquisition of the past decade.) And most of all, I love the crushing disappointment when way less happens than we all hoped.
With the deadline looming, here's what I'm rooting for both as a journalist who lives on clicks and a general fan of chaos.
Lions trade for Saints edge rusher Chase Young
I think it's important for the Lions to accept that a three-down impact player is not going to be available at defensive end this cycle. There's no Montez Sweat floating around. With Maxx Crosby never leaving Las Vegas and Myles Garrett never leaving Cleveland, the best option I could see moving is Bengals pass rusher Trey Hendrickson -- but not with a season-defining game against the Ravens coming up on Thursday night.
The Lions began Tuesday by trading for Za'Darius Smith. But not for nothing, but the Lions would be smart to make multiple moves at pass rusher. They have such little depth that they can sustain multiple additions, and it'd give them a couple swings at the plate to actually hit on a guy.
Young is, uh, younger and has a better pressure rate on the season (14.6% to Smith's 13.2%) despite seeing tougher matchups; he hasn't been playing opposite Garrett. Young has also spent the season in Dennis Allen's defense in New Orleans, so he should speak the same language that Aaron Glenn (a longtime Saints DBs coach) uses in Detroit, which could make for faster onboarding.
Young isn't the high-effort run defender that the Lions typically want and love at the position, but the priority should be adding to the pass rush at all costs. The Saints should be desperate to unload at the deadline for any and all 2025 cap relief, and trading Young would save them $4.5 million in cap room this season that they could roll into next season. I think an early-Day-3 pick or even a Day 3 pick swap would get it done.
Besides Smith and Young, I'd also call the Eagles about Bryce Huff, the Giants about Azeez Ojulari (which is actually a nice fit) and the Panthers about Jadeveon Clowney.
Cardinals trade for Browns tight end David Njoku
The Cardinals have already joined the festivities with Monday's acquisition of Broncos edge rusher Baron Browning, a deal I very much liked for a team dipping its toes in the water of contention.
One thing I struggle with on the Cardinals is all of the snaps that go to tight ends Elijah Higgins (227) and Tip Reiman (229). They're fine players, and rookie Reiman has some great blocking reps and a nice developmental future. But for a team that wants to live in multi-TE sets, it'd be nice if it had two receiving threats at the position. Think about the Gronk-Hernandez Patriots or Ertz-Goedert Eagles.
Enter Njoku. Still only 28 years old, Njoku developed slowly but surely into one of the 10 best tight ends in football. He's a plus blocker and highly valuable YAC threat who can make tough snags downfield. And trading Njoku would be one of the most impactful forms of 2025 cap relief for the Browns, which should be the guiding light of all their decisions at the deadline. They'd save $12 million on next year's cap by dealing him before the deadline.
With Njoku in the fold, the Cardinals would get a player who can dramatically impact the passing game without needing to chip too much into the existing target share of their other pass catchers. He'd play for them in the short-term but still leave room and time for Reiman to continue to develop. It's an ideal midseason addition.
Super dramatic WR drama around a deal that didn't actually happen
I need the 4:09 p.m. tweet. You know, the "While a deal didn't get done, teams were extensively in talks for this underperforming wideout who thinks he's a top-10 guy but is fringe top-20 at best. A deal couldn't be reached, and that WR is happy to finish the season with his current team/quarterback he actually hates. The Steelers and Patriots were involved in the talks."
Wide receiver trades at the deadline never go well (Chase Claypool, Kadarius Toney, Calvin Ridley), but because the position sustains so many different body types and play styles, there's always a chance an underachiever becomes an overachiever elsewhere, so teams keep fishing. I think we will get a rumor about one of the following players:
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
Steelers WR George Pickens
Bears WR DJ Moore
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle
Steelers trade for Saints wide receiver Chris Olave
I have no idea what the Saints are going to do before the trade deadline, which is probably a bad thing for an NFL analyst to admit. But they are three years late on dealing contributors and rebuilding, so I'm done believing they will actually pull the ripcord here.
If they are approaching a reload, Olave is unfortunately a key trade candidate for them. Only 24 years old, Olave has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons as a pro and should be viewed as a franchise cornerstone WR1 as long as his health is good. (Olave suffered his second concussion of the season and fifth since college when he was hit across the middle against the Panthers on Sunday.)
Because Olave is still on a rookie deal (read: the Saints have not yet tagged void years onto his contract), trading him would provide instant cap relief. It should also return a high draft pick. I think the Saints could get a first-rounder for him -- or at least the equivalent of a first-rounder in Day 2 picks -- which could be integral to spring-boarding the reload in New Orleans.
No team has been more obviously interested in making a wide receiver addition than the Steelers, who really could vaunt into contender status with the addition of Olave. He pairs nicely with Pickens and can be a high-volume pass catcher for multiple years in Pittsburgh.
The Chiefs get one more deal done
I love how Kansas City has approached the trade deadline in recent seasons. Even though it hasn't exactly hit on an acquisition (Toney, Mecole Hardman), those additions did give the Chiefs splash plays during the playoff runs. With the deal for pass rusher Joshua Uche last week, the Chiefs added another arrow to their quiver of pass-rush packages. They don't need him to be high-volume or elite; they just need him to make a couple splash plays during the postseason run. Just move the needle a little bit.
Kansas City has traded away its sixth-rounder (Hardman deal) and will send either its fourth- or fifth-rounder in the DeAndre Hopkins deal, so it might not have much to work with here. But a 2026 pick swap for Mike Edwards, who was a handy player in the Chiefs' 2023 Super Bowl run but has been buried on the Bills' depth chart this season? Or maybe Michael Davis from the Commanders for some press cornerback depth? Kelee Ringo from the Eagles? I'll bet we see one more deal from GM Brett Veach before the clock strikes zero.
Second Take: Never hire the interim coach
ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.
The Raiders fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy late Sunday night. That hire was always weird; Getsy had just been fired for the demonstrably discombobulated offense he authored in Chicago. What was he going to do in Las Vegas, where the offensive cupboards were just as bare?
With his departure -- and those of quarterbacks coach Rich Scangarello and offensive line coach James Cregg -- nobody yet knows who is going to be the offensive playcaller in Las Vegas. There are reports that Scott Turner, the current passing game coordinator, could take the job in some sort of coordination with his father Norv, who is retired and last worked in the league in 2019. But that has yet to be confirmed by coach Antonio Pierce, who told reporters Monday that he would take the next couple of days to evaluate the playcalling and starting quarterback positions as the Raiders approach their bye week. (Veteran starter Gardner Minshew, who was back in the saddle after being benched for Aidan O'Connell, was benched again this past Sunday for Desmond Ridder, who was signed off the Cardinals' practice squad two weeks ago.)
If this all sounds a little dysfunctional to you, just remember that Davante Adams also forced his way out via trade after three games this season.
I was hesitant about the Raiders handing Pierce the head coach title this offseason for a couple of reasons. He is an extremely inexperienced coach. His first year coaching in the college ranks was 2018; his first year in the NFL ranks was 2022. He just hadn't seen a lot, been through a lot, learned a lot. I know everyone's chasing the next Sean McVay, but McVay had been an NFL coach for eight years before he got the call from the Rams. Those eight years surely had some rough seas, and rough seas make smooth sailors.
Pierce is on choppy water right now, and it feels like he doesn't know how to handle it. Last season, when it felt like he was on choppy water -- promoted after the midseason firing of Josh McDaniels and handed a listless 3-5 squad -- Pierce looked like the spark the Raiders needed. They went 5-4 the rest of the way. They beat the Chiefs in Kansas City. The vibes were great.
That's the interim shine, and it always wears off. Few interim coaches are ever promoted to the full-time job, and those who are rarely have success. Doug Marrone held the Jaguars' job from midseason 2016 through the 2020 season and made an AFC Championship Game with Blake Bortles. That's probably the biggest success story. Jason Garrett had the longest tenure as the coach of his team, taking his 2010 interim position all the way through 2019 before he was finally fired by the Cowboys. But again, I'm not sure Garrett's famously unspectacular Cowboys are deserving of imitation.
Pierce isn't much different now than he was last year. He's still a high-intensity culture guy. The players are just a lot less thrilled to be playing for him, because he doesn't feel like "not Josh McDaniels" anymore. He just feels like the guy running the team without much experience, any playcalling responsibilities and strong game management.
I just don't think it's possible to accurately evaluate your interim coach, especially if he has little coaching experience elsewhere, as Pierce had. He gets such a big buff for just not being the other guy that you can't really tell if he's fit for the job until the effect wears off. But the Raiders jumped without looking too long, and now they're reeling. They have no plan on offense in the short term and no direction in the long term (save for rookie tight end Brock Bowers, whom I love dearly).
I don't have much faith in Pierce's ability to right the ship, but I'm also not sure that another coaching search for the Raiders this offseason is going to help the team, so maybe it's best to let him ride this out for another season. In short: The Raiders are absolutely nowhere as a team. (Again, save for Bowers, who is amazing.)
Saints, Jets and any other team of a soon-to-be-fired coach ... hear me now before the emotions of a .500 finish sweep over you: Don't hire the interim.
From y'all
The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.
From Tyler: "The Packers' offense rotates from unstoppable to unable to get a first down. This is mostly due to silly things such as penalties and drops. However, from a film perspective, I am wondering if you believe they could be providing more easy buttons with Jordan Love under center. When Malik Willis is playing, it feels like almost all of the passing game is simplified and scheme-dependent. Is this a real trend, and should Matt LaFleur lean into more scheme-dependent quick passing looks for Love?"
I don't think there's reason to panic. When Love is on the field, the Packers' offense is above average (if in unspectacular fashion) in every metric I have. It's 12th in EPA per play, 13th in success rate, 15th in points per drive and 11th in both explosive pass and explosive run rate. To the first-down note: Only 28% of Love's drives have failed to register a first down, which is eighth best in football. And it's worth remarking that Love was evidently gimpy in both the Jaguars game and the Lions game, so even our Love-only sample is a bit muddied.
The biggest issue is execution in the red zone: 38.2% of Love's red zone drives have ended in a touchdown, which is the worst number in football. The Giants are second worst at 40%, and only three other teams (Cowboys, Steelers, 49ers) are under 50%. Green Bay is picking up yardage with Love in there no problem, but when it scores, it often does so from distance. If the Packers get into the condensed space of the red zone, windows get tighter and the passing offense loses its boom.
And this isn't just a Love problem! In Willis' two starts, six red zone drives ended in only two touchdowns. If I know this, so do the Packers, and I'd imagine we start seeing more designed red zone plays from them in the future (or maybe just some good ol'-fashioned runs).
A simplified passing game is always the move for a backup quarterback, but it's worth giving a quarterback of Love's caliber the grown-up version of the offense and living through the bumps and bruises. Systems are much easier to stop than top quarterbacks who are on heaters; just ask 2023 end-of-season Love. I'm confident Green Bay will find more red zone success as the season goes on -- or just keep scoring from 40 yards out.
From Sabir: "Why do NFL offenses suck in short-yardage situations on fourth downs?"
I actually went looking into this on Sunday night because I thought there was something there, and there isn't. The league's fourth-and-1 (or less) conversion rate is 70.4% right now, which is the highest it has been since 2018.
Even if we widen it to fourth-and-3 (or less), we're at 64.0%, barely down from last season and larger than every other number since 2019. Add in third down, and there's no meaningful change. (And this past week wasn't a particularly bad week for conversion rate, before you ask.)
One thing that is true? Because teams are generally going for more fourth downs (teams are going for 70.7% of fourth-and-1s this season, which is double the number from the 2012 season), there are more fourth-down failures on any given Sunday than there have been in the past. There have been 45 fourth-and-1 failures so far, so we're on pace for 85 all season -- way more than there were in the early 2010s. But there were also 89 last season and 109 the season before. Teams aren't any worse on fourth-and-short than they have been in the past.
From Jaten: "I know the season is over. Knew that before the season started. My question is simple. Do any Cowboys players have trade value? Is anyone giving more than a fifth-rounder for the likes of Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence? Osa Odighizuwa? I have a hard time with NFL trades. Would the Lions like Lawrence with Aidan Hutchinson out?"
One hundred percent, yes. Martin is a bit over the hill, but many teams (Bears, Ravens, Seahawks, Niners, Rams, Packers and Texans) would sprint to the phone. The Vikings ... oh my goodness, the Vikings would do it tomorrow if they thought he was available. Lawrence, too. He'd jump right above the Arden Key/Azeez Ojulari tier of trade options for any short-term contender. You could get solid compensation for either player.
With that said, if Jerry Jones trades a single player away at the deadline, I'll eat my hat.
Next Ben Stats
NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.
16: That's how many different Cardinals defenders got at least one quarterback pressure against the Bears on Sunday. It's the most players to garner at least one pressure in a single game and for one team since 2018, per NFL Next Gen Stats. There are only 11 players on the field at once!
Here they are, in descending order of total pressures: Edge rusher Zaven Collins (5), edge rusher Jesse Luketa (4), edge rusher Xavier Thomas (3), defensive tackle Dante Stills (3), defensive tackle Ben Stille (3), edge rusher Victor Dimukeje (3), defensive tackle L.J. Collier (3), linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. (2), safety Budda Baker (2), defensive tackle Roy Lopez (2), linebacker Kyzir White (2), cornerback Garrett Williams (1), linebacker Owen Pappoe (1), defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga (1), safety Jalen Thompson (1) and linebacker Krys Barnes (1).
Shoutout to edge rusher Julian Okwara, the only Cardinal to have a pass-rush snap without generating any pressure. To be fair, he had only seven snaps, and I'm sure he would have gotten it on the eighth.
This tells two stories. The first is one of a creative Cardinals defense. I don't think this defense is good by any stretch, but if you can't be a good defense, the next-best thing to be is weird. Run a lot of coverages from a lot of different alignments. Deploy a ton of fronts with different body types. You're going to lose more downs than you win, but a simple and fast line-up-and-play defense would hardly win any reps in Arizona -- the Cardinals just don't have the talent on the roster. Instead, they're a kitchen sink defense: They throw enough at the wall that something sticks, and they get the stop (or two) that they need.
It's rare to see the Cardinals' D dominate a game, though ... and that brings us to the Bears' offense. Caleb Williams was pressured on 46% of his dropbacks. The Cardinals had previously had a single-game pressure rate over 30% only twice this season. Chicago's offensive line deficiencies are one thing, but the continued failure of the offensive coaching staff to adjust week-over-week is astonishing and infuriating. We're still doing key Keenan Allen targets. We're still doing five-in-the-concept on most passing plays. We're still heavily relying on the deep ball. We're still asking D'Andre Swift to be a three-down back in a way he has never been. How many more times do we need to ram our head into the wall before this offense tries something new?
0.0001%: That's how likely it was that Amon-Ra St. Brown would catch his past 30 consecutive targets, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's a 1-in-780,000 shot. But he has done so anyway.
I watched all 30 catches Monday. There are some high-difficulty snags in there -- the touchdown against the Packers this week was a tremendous catch against the sideline -- but in general, it is preposterous how easily the Lions get St. Brown looks and how precisely Jared Goff gets him the football. I see so many anticipation throws, so many adjustments to the defense.
In fact, I'd say there isn't a quarterback/wide receiver duo that has more chemistry and trust right now than St. Brown and Goff. They've been playing together for four seasons now, and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been calling plays for them for three seasons. If you want to know what continuity does for an offensive system, watch the Lions play mistake-free, high-efficiency, woodchipper football on offense on Sundays.
20: That's how many teams where DeVonta Smith would be WR1.
A.J. Brown is elite, an easy top-five wideout. He's unreal. And because he's so good, he casts a very big shadow, and the Slim Reaper all too easily hides within it. But once or twice a season, Smith has a day or makes a play that reminds you just how good he is, too. One of those plays came this week against the Jaguars -- in a game that got weirdly close -- with Brown on the sideline.
SMITTY IS NOT OF THIS WORLD 🤯👽@DeVontaSmith_6 | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/PZPAGdLtqh
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 3, 2024
It's third-and-22 and the target is right up against the end line. Nails. And after another mind-blowing downfield touchdown against the Bengals last week. Just bonkers.
Elite WR2s are always so interesting to me because they're challenging to contextualize. They benefit from the gravity of the elite WR1 with whom they play, but they also don't get the sort of volume that buttresses the production of the elite guys. Of all the great WR2s -- Tee Higgins, Deebo Samuel Sr., Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Jaylen Waddle -- I think Smith is just the best player right now. I would hear arguments on Higgins and Samuel, who both have different skill sets than him. But Smith is truly elite at the catch point despite his frame, and he's great separating and after the catch.
I think he'd be a WR1 for about half of the league. I did it on the back of a napkin, and I came to 20 exactly. You figure the Cardinals, Packers, Giants, Panthers, Broncos, Raiders, Chargers, Ravens, Browns, Patriots, Jaguars, Titans and Colts for sure make the list. That's 13. And the Seahawks, Bears, Commanders, Chiefs, Steelers, Bills and Falcons are the seven that I think are close.
Smith is probably the third-best playmaker on his own team, behind Brown and running back Saquon Barkley, who is the greatest player alive as far as I'm concerned. I'm almost positive that the Eagles are the only team in football on which Smith would be the third-most dangerous skill position player. What an embarrassment of riches.
15: That's how many games have been played this season in which an offense averaged at least 10 yards to go on all of their third downs. The Seahawks have four of those games.
Sunday against the Rams, which was a devastating hit to Seattle's postseason hopes, was one such loss. The Seahawks averaged 10.2 yards to go on their 15 third-down attempts, converting on only four tries. It was an improvement, sickeningly enough, on last week, when the Seahawks averaged 11.0 yards to go on third down and converted one of seven opportunities against Buffalo. Seattle's Week 3 game against the Dolphins remains the league's longest game for third-down distance at 13.3 yards to go. The team's Week 7 game against Atlanta is the fourth on the list at 10.1 yards to go.
On the season, the Seahawks are averaging 8.9 yards to go on third down, which would be the highest number for any single season since 1980 (as far back as we can look).
It takes a perfect storm of problems to pull this off. Seattle's offensive line is perhaps the worst unit in football. It has given up more quick pressures than any unit in the league on the season, and did so again this past week. This makes the early-down passing game hard; that's when you'd like to hit your play-action looks and deeper dropbacks. But it also hurts the early-down running game. On designed early-down carries on first and second down, the Seahawks are 26th in success rate. They can't consistently work themselves into third-and-manageable.
A world of perpetual Geno Smith hero ball is admittedly cool and fun, but it's also maddeningly inconsistent. And that's with a healthy cadre of pass catchers. Once DK Metcalf and Noah Fant leave the lineup, you're suddenly targeting AJ Barner in the low red zone, and the margins get even thinner.
Seattle's offense is much better than it appears. It's just constantly playing in the most challenging down-and-distance situations that an offense can face. If the Seahawks make a more concerted effort to get out of third-and-long (get under center and run the ball, please!), they can protect their offensive line and avoid disasters like the one they suffered yesterday.
Monday Night Mayhem
Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from "Monday Night Football" and break down what it means for the rest of the season.
It was an incredibly eventful "Monday Night Football" game. For those who may have missed it, here are the SparkNotes:
The Chiefs won 30-24 in overtime. New Chiefs receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught 8 of 9 targets for 86 yards and 2 scores. He is only the sixth player in NFL history to have a multiscore game with four different franchises, per ESPN Research. Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught 14 of 16 targets for 100 yards. He is the first player 35 or older to grab at least 14 passes in a game in NFL history. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is now 6-0-0 in regular-season overtime games, rerolled his bad ankle on a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter and had to be helped off the field, which was terrifying.
The Buccaneers actually delivered a far more spirited effort than many expected. Baker Mayfield was good for most of the night, including on what coulda-and-shoulda been a game-winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. After Mayfield hit receiver Ryan Miller for a touchdown to make it 23-24 with 27 seconds left, Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles elected to kick a game-tying extra point over a 2-point conversion attempt, sending the game to OT. The Bucs lost the coin toss, and their offense never saw the field again.
There were three game-tying touchdowns scored in the final seconds of regulation in three overtime games in Week 9. All three touchdowns were game-tying because the teams elected to kick extra points, not go for 2-point conversions. All three game-tying teams (Patriots, Seahawks and Buccaneers) lost in overtime.
The analytics are actually not clear on this. All three decisions were toss-ups on the NFL Next Gen Stats models -- either choice was defensible, and to the model's knowledge, neither produced a strong edge to win probability. (Interestingly, the ESPN Analytics model agreed with the decisions to kick extra points in all four situations, though.)
All I know is this: If you put the ball on the 2-yard line and told me that if I score, I almost certainly beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in their home stadium -- but almost certainly lose if I fail -- I take that deal and run with it. Anyway, the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl.