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          NFL Week 7 spin: Lamar Jackson is MVP, Brock Purdy's flaw

          • Ben SolakOct 22, 2024, 07:30 AM ET
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              Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.

          What a Week 7 in the NFL! Jared Goff looked like he was about to post another perfect game, Lamar Jackson was exactly 0.2 points off a perfect passer rating, and Jayden Daniels hung 40 points on the Panthers. Wait, I'm sorry. I'm told that was Marcus Mariota?

          Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll take a first look at the consequences of "Monday Night Football," break down a major trend or two, and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun. Let's jump in.

          Jump to a section:
          The Big Thing: MVP Lamar
          New kids on the block: Potential trade targets
          Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
          Second Take: Purdy has a weakness
          Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 7 stats

          The Big Thing: Lamar is again the most valuable

          Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?

          Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in football. I'm certain of that. I have no doubt.

          But despite the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback in football (I'm not wavering, not even a little), he is doing far less cool stuff this season than he has in past seasons. His impact on the game is in the little things: timely scrambles, quick throws and smart decisions. He has become the league's most dangerous game manager.

          Now, the league's most dangerous playmaker at quarterback? The guy who does the most jaw-dropping, mind-boggling, eye-popping stuff? That guy is Lamar Jackson. He's the league's reigning Most Valuable Player, and through seven weeks, he looks like a repeat winner. He'd be the seventh repeat winner in NFL history -- the youngest player to ever win it three times.

          Watching Jackson, 27, feels like how watching Mahomes used to feel. You hold your breath without realizing it, because any and every play could be an impossible escape, an improbable completion or a new creation. On Monday against the Buccaneers, Jackson threw for five touchdowns and ran for 50 yards, his third time doing so in a single game. The rest of the NFL has only done it four times in history (nobody more than once). He was 17-for-22 for 281 passing yards and had a 91.9 QBR.

          Lamar is an offense unto himself. That's how he can regularly produce games that are once-in-a-career events for others. Take this 59-yard throw to Rashod Bateman while the Ravens were still trailing. After Baltimore motions to an empty formation, the Buccaneers check to a blitz look in order to game up a free pass rusher. This is a win for the defense on the chalkboard every single time. Chris Braswell comes screaming off the edge.

          But I don't think he even gets a fingertip on Lamar. Jackson is out of the pocket and directing traffic with Bateman, throwing across his body 40 yards in the air to create the explosive play.

          Here's another free rusher, as the Buccaneers call a stunt into the Ravens' run action. Look at the traffic Jackson navigates in the pocket -- keeping his hands on the ball to limit the potential for a fumble, which is something he struggled with earlier in his career -- as he turns a sure sack into a first-down run.

          The Bucs were trying to heat Jackson up all night. They blitzed him on 61.5% of his dropbacks, which is the third-highest single-game mark of Jackson's career. Remember when blitz-happy defensive coordinators used to get the jump on him in Greg Roman's offense? That's no longer the case. Jackson is second in the league in success rate against the blitz at 63.2% (only Mahomes is better).

          We cannot dissect big plays from the Ravens' offense on Monday night without addressing the huge 49-yard Bateman touchdown. No pressure to negate here, no unique Lamarian impact. Just a beautiful throw and a beautiful catch.

          Cool design on this one, as Bateman looks like he's bending a vertical route back into the sideline -- very typical on a flood concept, which this play is initiating -- before he pulls it back downfield. This is a designer route for a particular moment, and it's dialed up for Bateman, who has been delivering the sort of play the Ravens have long been hoping to get from the 2021 first-round pick.

          This is not just a clean pocket -- it's also an open window. And the Ravens have been enjoying plenty of those this season. Jackson's average target against the Buccaneers had 5.3 yards of separation, which is the best number in a single game this season per NFL Next Gen Stats. In his September matchup against the Cowboys, 86.7% of his passing attempts went to an open window, which is the biggest single-game number in the NGS database. A lot has coalesced to achieve this: the emergence of Bateman, the efficiency of Justice Hill and Zay Flowers on screens, and a second year in the Todd Monken passing game. The stars have aligned, and no team is finding easier passes more consistently than Baltimore.

          It seems counterintuitive to give Jackson credit for throwing the ball into wide-open windows, but he deserves it for turning down the tight windows that he often tested in past years. NFL Next Gen Stats has only 8.1% of his throws this season traveling into a tight window, which is a big drop-off not just for his career numbers, but also for his numbers in Monken's offense last season (11.4%). Only -- you guessed it -- Mahomes is throwing into fewer tight windows this season than Jackson, and Lamar is doing it while throwing significantly farther downfield (8.3 air yards per attempt) than Mahomes (5.4).

          Vaulting Jackson into Mahomes' air is a silly thing to do because Mahomes is the most talented quarterback to walk the Earth. But I'm going to do it anyway. And it's not about stats, though Jackson is posting some preposterous numbers. It's about gravity.

          We know what it is when a star player walks onto a field, court or pitch. They create new circumstances for their offenses, environments that can be neither replicated with similar players nor reproduced in the aggregate. They force defenses, who have drilled techniques, strategies and schemes for months, to play a slightly different version of the sport they've prepared to play -- just different enough to break the math, destroy the scheme and negate the technique.

          Jackson has gravity. Even as the scheme and the playmakers around him have improved, you can still tell that the offensive universe in Baltimore is heliocentric, held together by the sheer force of Jackson. What is happening in Baltimore is different than when 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was putting up historic efficiency numbers last season, or when Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow beat Mahomes in a couple games in 2021. The difference is in the miracle plays that no other quarterback could conjure. And it's in the mundane plays that are allowed by the defense because they're so fearful of those miracles. Jackson's mere presence on the field warps defensive structure, creates rushing lanes, puts linebackers in binds, opens receivers and slows pass rushers.

          It's not just that he can do things no other quarterback can do; it's that the entire Ravens offense can do stuff that no other offense can do, simply because he's the quarterback of it.

          And this is why Jackson is the league's MVP through seven weeks. In fact, it's why he was the league's MVP last season even though his counting stats and efficiency metrics weren't even that great. He is the most valuable player in another sense -- the most crucial Jenga block to his respective team's tower.

          Becoming the youngest player to win the M-V-Three would be a deserved feather in Jackson's cap. But he'd be the first to tell you -- and his doubters would be close behind -- that no number of regular-season awards can fill a glaring lack of postseason success. Jackson made his first conference championship game last season, ultimately falling to Mahomes and the Chiefs 17-10. The 2024 Ravens defense is far less suited for a Super Bowl run than the 2023 defense, but if Jackson is really the MVP, he should be able to lift his team through an AFC playoff picture that lacks a true juggernaut. Of course, a conference championship will still almost certainly entail another game against Mahomes, who has beaten Jackson in five of their six head-to-head contests.

          Jackson has started to affect the game the way Mahomes does. All that's left is to actually beat him when it counts.

          New kids (potentially, maybe?) on the block

          If I were a GM -- my team would currently be 0-7 -- these are the names I'd be calling about with the trade deadline just two short weeks away (Nov. 5), even if they might not seem likely to be traded.

          Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns

          You never know until you ask, right? Sports Illustrated reported that teams have called on Garrett, and I'd be doing so, as well. Garrett is one of 10, maybe 12 defensive players who can single-handedly win you a Super Bowl with his game-wrecking ability -- and on that list, he's first in likeliness to do it.

          The problem? The Browns have hugely restructured Garrett's contract, converting his base salary into bonuses that gave them short-term cap relief (for all the good it did them). It's cheaper for the Browns in 2025 to have Garrett on the roster than to not have him on the roster. And with the Browns already swallowing the Amari Cooper dead cap hit and maybe needing to do the same with Deshaun Watson, I can't imagine they'd move Garrett's contract to make their short-term cap outlook even more dire.

          With that said, if I were Lions general manager Brad Holmes, I'd be willing to offer multiple first-round picks and multiple second-round picks to get this done.

          Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints

          A first-round pick in the 2022 draft, Olave has been excellent for the Saints over his career. That means two things: They won't want to trade him, but he's also going to be asking for $28 million or so annually in a year or two. The Saints should and would be happy to pay Olave that money, but they have a very unhealthy future cap and no long-term contending outlook. A new coaching staff is likely to enter the building at the end of this offseason, and a long-term rebuild will inevitably take place. Do they want to be paying Olave big money in his prime when they don't really have any designs on contention?

          Olave would immediately be the best receiver target on the market -- better than Diontae Johnson, Christian Kirk and maybe even Tee Higgins (though that depends on the role you want to fill). Olave has more than 1,000 receiving yards in each of his full seasons, and he has 280 to begin 2024. The Chiefs should feel great about offering multiple second-round picks to the Saints for Olave -- and if New Orleans demands a first-rounder, well, it'll probably be the No. 32 selection anyway.

          Kendrick Bourne, WR, New England Patriots

          Bourne is far from a splashy name, but I'll forever love a receiver with good size, hands, blocking and route running. He isn't superlative in any one area, but as a do-it-all No. 3 receiver, you could do far, far worse. Bourne fell out of favor in New England while enduring some bad offenses and bad quarterback play, and the pecking order in the current Patriots receiver room seems to change with the week.

          The 49ers, who know Bourne well, should consider adding him as veteran insurance, given Brandon Aiyuk's torn right ACL/MCL. The Lions, who are getting good return with Tim Patrick as their No. 3 receiver, should consider Bourne an upgrade, as well. I like him for the Ravens, too. All the contending teams could use a steady player like Bourne.

          C.J. Mosley, LB, New York Jets

          Mosley missed three weeks because of a toe injury earlier this season, but he has been available for the past two games. Yet he seems to have conceded his starting role in the base defense to Jamien Sherwood, as Mosley played nine snaps against the Bills and 22 against the Steelers.

          Mosley is 32 years old, was never the most fleet of foot and should be limited to a subpackage role wherever he'd go. But for those teams whose linebackers are currently struggling to step downhill and plug up the run (49ers, Seahawks, Cowboys), Mosley could carve out a valuable role. And while the Jets are probably still all-in (for some reason), Mosley's reduced responsibility means they shouldn't feel too badly about sending an asset away for future draft capital. It'd be a new thing for New York!

          Dexter Lawrence II, DT, New York Giants

          I would call, but if the Giants actually trade Lawrence, they're mad. See Next Ben Stats for more ...

          From y'all

          The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

          From Tom: "Which teams do you think should just call it a season and start tanking, and do you see any college prospects that are worth tanking for?"

          This is always the time of the year when we start talking tanking. It's hard but possible to tank in the NFL. You aren't guaranteed to get the first overall selection, but you can work your way into the top six or so fairly easily, and that's meaningful (especially if you don't need a quarterback). You can get franchise-changing players in that range at non-quarterback positions.

          The problem is the 2025 draft class. This seems like a great class to be picking top 15, but I'm not sold that it's a good class to be picking in the top five. None of the current quarterback prospects appear to be on the level of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Heck, I'm not sure any of them are on J.J. McCarthy's level as a prospect. Maybe one of the tackles is an Andrew Thomas-level prospect, but none of the top guys positively strike me as such. The same is true of the wideouts -- none of the top guys would have gone before Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze in April.

          So this is a bad class to have a top-five pick, as far as I see it. A lot will change between now and April, but I'd wager teams with early draft picks will be trying to trade out of their spots for much of this draft cycle.

          From Brett: "The Steelers are 5-2 with the AFC's second-best point differential. Their two losses are to winning teams by a combined six points. They also have blown out the bad teams they have played the past two weeks. How seriously should we be taking the Steelers in terms of them being potential Super Bowl contenders?"

          Fairly seriously. I'd like to see Russell Wilson play solid football for over a month before I really crown him as the clear and unquestioned starter. I thought he was very average Sunday night, with huge plays from his receivers inflating his stats. But even if Russ plays at that level for the rest of the season, it's a jump from where Kenny Pickett had this team last year (so, too, if Justin Fields goes back in). Quarterback play is better in Pittsburgh than it has been in, legitimately, years.

          I need this offense to make a move at the deadline, though. With Najee Harris as the primary ball carrier, the only explosive player who gets more than a few touches per game is receiver George Pickens -- and we know how mercurial Pickens can be as a player. Spin the Steelers forward into a playoff scenario, and the plan for the opposing defense is crystal clear: Frustrate Pickens and make anyone else beat you. I don't fear 20 carries from Harris. I don't fear six Van Jefferson targets. I fear a Darnell Washington catch, but that's because that guy's built like a house.

          If the Steelers can add a No. 2 receiver who can take on a lot of volume in the passing attack and accordingly take over a game, I'll get much more interested. Chris Olave is at the top of that list. Christian Kirk might still make it. Tee Higgins would be amazing -- if he weren't in the same division.

          I don't love it!

          From Quinn: "What otherworldly crimes have I committed in my past life that left me a Jets fan. I'm 28 and somehow the most inspiring quarterback play is a toss-up between Chad Pennington, Ryan Fitzpatrick or game-manager Mark Sanchez (honorable mention to the three weeks of Mike White). How is it that a team can continually be so dysfunctional across so many coaches, quarterbacks and even GMs? There has to be another force at play here right?"

          You're not wrong, Quinn. No QB draft picks seem to hit, and those who might hit never develop. No coaching move seems to succeed, and no general manager hire seems to work. It's easy to feel like the one thing that connects them is the fan base (and any curses of past lives that might or might not be following). But the one thing that connects them is actually ownership.

          Woody Johnson bought the Jets in 2000, and since then, the Jets are 170-224 (.431). They've made two conference championships and zero Super Bowls. The last time they were in the playoffs was 2010. Evaluating ownership is always hard over small samples, but over large ones, the cream rises to the top -- and the Jets have been at the bottom. If an ex-employee can predict that you'll fire your coach after a London loss because it's particularly embarrassing to you in front of your friends, well ... I'm not sure I trust the way you run the team.

          Second Take: There is a weakness in Purdy's game

          ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

          Earlier this week, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was asked about 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, whom he complimented heavily following the Chiefs' victory over the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. As Spags said: "I can't find a weakness in this quarterback. Every time I put the film on, I'm more and more impressed."

          Because Purdy discourse is the single most important discourse in football internet -- and has been for years -- this was immediately shared and debated. Of course, Spagnuolo and the Chiefs have now played Purdy twice in 2024 and produced two of the worst games Purdy has played. Purdy has been below his career numbers in success rate, adjusted net yards per attempt and EPA per dropback in both performances. And in this past game, a 28-18 loss, he produced bottom-10 single-game numbers for his career.

          I think Spagnuolo is pulling a Bill Belichick here: heavily complimenting a player he believes he has figured out.

          When Spags talks about Purdy, he talks about how good he is against zone coverage -- how well he finds the windows, how he times the throws, his chemistry with his receivers as they adjust to the space provided. Because Spags is so impressed with Purdy against zone coverage, he just doesn't give Purdy zone coverage to dice up. In last season's Super Bowl, Spagnuolo played man coverage on 64.3% of Purdy's dropbacks, which is the most man coverage Spags has called since the 2018 season. This past week, it was 48.6% of Purdy's dropbacks, his highest rate of the season and the third-highest number of any Chiefs game in the past four seasons.

          Now, Purdy isn't inherently bad against man coverage. Since he entered the league, he's sixth in EPA per dropback and first in success rate against man. But when the Chiefs play man coverage, they challenge your receivers with press. Including this season, the Chiefs have led the NFL in press rate in three of the past four years. Against the Niners on Sunday, Kansas City ran press 44.8% of the time, the sixth-highest rate for any Chiefs game over the past four seasons.

          The Chiefs aren't the only team trying to press the 49ers, either. Seattle pressed them on 36.7% of Purdy's dropbacks; the Rams pressed them 34.6% of the time. Both are season highs for those respective defenses, and both had some success and some big failures in press coverage. But unlike the Seahawks and Rams, the Chiefs have been living in a press coverage world for years, and they have drafted to that end. Even when starting outside cornerback Jaylen Watson went down with a fractured ankle, backups Nazeeh Johnson and Joshua Williams were ready to step in.

          The Niners were banged up too. No Jauan Jennings (hip) coming into this game. No Deebo Samuel Sr. (illness) for almost all of the game. And Brandon Aiyuk left midway through the contest with an ACL/MCL tear in his right knee. But remember: Spagnuolo was already pressing the Niners' receivers last season, when everyone was healthy in the Super Bowl. This wasn't a game plan dependent on bad wide receiver play ... it was always the plan.

          And that's interesting, as Purdy and the 49ers' offense are playing categorically different ball this season -- fewer after-the-catch looks, more downfield throws, fewer screens, longer dropbacks and more scrambles -- than they were last year, when they were at full strength.

          A quarterback like Purdy, who is accustomed to throwing to open zone windows on predictable timing, will always struggle when forced to throw receivers open against tight coverage on disrupted timing. Purdy both missed and turned down throws Sunday, in part because his receivers are all new and young, but also in part because he wasn't comfortable testing that press coverage. The Kyle Shanahan offense is a woodchipper against zone spacing and free releases. By forcing San Francisco to play a game of muddied routes and tight windows, you at least introduce some coin flips and variance. Sure, you'll get burned for some big catches, but you'll also get pass breakups and stops.

          Doing Purdy discourse is always terrifying. Because he plays in the Shanahan system and enjoyed an unbelievable cadre of pass catchers last season, many people want to minimize his impact on the offense. Make no bones about it, he's clearly better than Jimmy Garoppolo ever was and has elevated the Shanahan offense with his penchant for downfield throws and scrambling. But just because he has added to the offense, that doesn't mean he is above criticism entirely.

          The press coverage isn't going away, and it isn't totally a Purdy failure. The 49ers' offense as a whole needs better answers. But whenever a defensive coach hops on a microphone and gushes praise about the opposing QB, I promise you it's because he thinks he has him pegged.

          Next Ben Stats

          NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

          87.5%: That's Patrick Mahomes' success rate on scrambles so far this season. Sixteen scrambles, 14 successful scrambles. The only two seasons better (since 2006, when our data stops) both belong to Ryan Tannehill, who had success rates over 90% in 2019 and 2021. But Tannehill scrambled 16 and 18 total times in each of those seasons, respectively; Mahomes is on pace to scramble 45 times this season. If he retains an 87.5% success rate, that'll be the best scrambling season ever at volume, without question.

          It's important to use success rate -- a measure of how many plays generated positive expected points -- to measure the value of a Mahomes scramble, because that's exactly why and how Mahomes scrambles. He only ever crosses the line of scrimmage when the path to the first-down marker is clear. He has picked up a first down on 62.5% of his scrambles this season, which would also be a record if he keeps it up all season. He isn't hunting explosive plays or looking to break tackles; he's just ensuring that the offense collects another positive play and keeps chugging along on schedule.

          And that's what makes his 33-yard run against the 49ers (the longest run of his career) so funny. We're all accustomed to seeing him get 6 yards and scamper out of bounds, setting up a third-and-1 and achieving that positive play; we're also accustomed to seeing him slip that contact and stick the ball over the marker, stealing a new set of downs. But look how surprised everyone is -- Mahomes included! -- when he gets into open space and can pick up more yardage.

          The other notorious thing about Mahomes' scrambling? Those runs come at a particularly backbreaking moment in the game -- a key third down, a late play in a one-score game, etc. That run against the 49ers was Mahomes' 12th scramble that added at least 10% of win probability on the ESPN model. Only Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson have more such scrambles. How much do you want to bet he catches them, too?

          27: That's how many catches Brock Bowers has over the past three games. And that's the best streak in rookie tight end history. Dalton Kincaid had the previous top mark, hauling in 23 passes last season across Weeks 7-9.

          The fact that Bowers is doing this as a rookie tight end is important, as the position is notorious for steep onboarding ramps and poor Year 1 performance. It helps that, in the absence of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, the passing offense has been funneled through Bowers. But how many tight ends in the NFL can be the focal point of their team's passing game? You can count them on two hands these days, maybe even one.

          You might argue that the Raiders' passing game has been terrible in the past three weeks, and you'd be half right. The Raiders are awful by EPA because they're bad on late downs and turn the ball over a ton, but they're also 23rd in success rate. Far from good, but it's not like they're feeding Bowers at the expense of a good pass game. He's the only thing about the passing game that's working. Bowers is making tough catches outside of his frame, running great routes when split out wide and still dominating after the catch as he did at Georgia. What Bowers is doing this season is more impressive than what Kincaid or even Sam LaPorta did last season, because he's doing it on super-hard mode.

          On the season, Bowers has caught 47 balls for 477 yards. That's a 114-catch, 1,158-yard pace. Both numbers would break rookie tight end records for season production. There's not a lot to root for in Las Vegas right now, but that sure is something.

          0: That's how many players have more sacks than Dexter Lawrence does. It's also the number of players who get double-teamed more than Lawrence.

          Lawrence has been the best pass rusher in football among players lined up over the center for a while. In 2022, he led the NFL in pressures when lined up over the center with 45; in 2023, he did it again with 39, which would have been second in 2022 (to himself). He's on pace for only 29 this season, but that's because the Giants' star defensive tackle is getting double-teamed on a whopping 67% of his rushes between the guards. Altogether, Lawrence has been double-teamed on 63% of his pass rushes, which leads the league this season.

          So to restate: Lawrence leads the NFL in two separate things: double-teams faced on pass rushes and total sacks. That's absolutely bananas. I'm not even sure this is legal. Here's a graph.

          It's extremely unlikely that Lawrence actually ends up leading the league in sacks. Defensive tackles have done it only three times in history, and Aaron Donald (20.5) was the only one to do it in the past 20 years. Edge rushers are just too good, and they don't have to contend with so many double-teams. But right now, this is the highest double-team rate in the NFL Next Gen Stats database, and it just doesn't matter for Lawrence. If he can retain his high pressure rate (hard to do) and his great conversion rate of pressures into sacks (even harder!), this will be one of the greatest defensive tackle seasons in recent memory.

          If they gave me a Defensive Player of the Year ballot right now, Lawrence would be on it. He might even top it.

          41.5%: That's Jared Goff's success rate when pressured this season. No quarterback is better.

          This is a two-parter, so hang on.

          21.3%: That's Goff's explosive pass rate when pressured this season. Again, no quarterback is better.

          Think about it this way: When there's pressure, no quarterback is delivering positive plays or big plays more consistently. That's not how it's supposed to work at all. You're supposed to either be a dump-off QB who hits the checkdown and accumulates positive plays or a scramble/hold-the-ball QB who hunts big plays when pressured. You're not allowed to do both at the same time!

          These are peak numbers for the Lions' signal-caller. Last season, his success rate jumped when pressured, as compared to previous seasons. This season, it's the jump in explosive pass rate that's new. Pressuring Goff and forcing him to speed up his process was the long-used kryptonite for the pocket passer, and now it just doesn't work anymore. In fact, he all of a sudden excels under fire.

          While it's likely that these numbers drop at some point (an explosive pass rate over 20% is simply astonishing), the proof of the pudding is in the film. Goff continues to beat pressure by a half-second with accurate throws to all levels of the field, and the Lions' pass catchers constantly pay him off with tough grabs or big gains after the catch. Defenses need to find a new method for breaking Goff, because the old way doesn't work anymore.