Two games do not make an NFL season, but it's enough of a sample for trends to be established. But which early trends will have staying power during the 2024 season, and which will dissipate as the season goes on?
We're diving into that question with the help of our NFL Nation reporters, who identified an early tendency from the team they cover, then determined whether it will continue through the season or whether it's a mirage. Some of these are on the happy side (like the Lions' Aidan Hutchinson taking even more of a star turn), while others point at areas of concern (Will Levis' penchant for creative turnovers).
Let's get to the real-or-mirage assessments, starting with the AFC East:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
The early surprise: The Bills' defense has thrived despite having to play several backups.
The verdict: Real. It's not the first time a Sean McDermott defense has found success with backups on the field, so it shouldn't be a surprise that the unit has risen to the occasion with linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson all injured. While the defense started slowly in Week 1, the past three halves have been great. Against the Dolphins in Week 2, the defense gave up 10 points and held quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to an air yard per completion average of 1.8. The success the Bills' defense has had in the past suggests the unit can keep this up. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Miami Dolphins
The early surprise: The Dolphins are feeding RB De'Von Achane early and often.
The verdict: Real. The second-year running back has a team-high 46 touches in the Dolphins' first two games this season; the next five players have combined for 44. After drafting Jaylen Wright and extending Raheem Mostert, Miami's backfield figured to operate under a "hot hand" approach. But Achane's been the hot hand in every facet of the game, leading the team in both carries and receptions. He is the Dolphins' best all-around offensive player and they will continue to work through him -- especially while playing without Tua Tagovailoa for an extended period of time. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England Patriots
The early surprise: Running back Rhamondre Stevenson has received a heavy workload.
The verdict: Mirage. Stevenson has played 100 snaps through the first two games, and his 46 carries are third most in the NFL behind the Packers' Josh Jacobs and the 49ers' Jordan Mason (both of whom have 48). If the Patriots want Stevenson to last over the course of a 17-game season, they are going to have to find spots to lighten his load and turn more toward Antonio Gibson (30 total snaps) and even JaMycal Hasty (three snaps). -- Mike Reiss
New York Jets
The early surprise: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has gotten off to a slow start.
The verdict: Mirage. Rodgers has 343 passing yards. This is only the second time in his 20-year career that he has been held under 200 yards in back-to-back starts. Don't expect this trend to continue. You knew there would be an acclimation period, considering Rodgers' long injury-related layoff. He's also playing with new teammates and trying to build chemistry. It would've been unrealistic to expect vintage Rodgers out of the gate. With the amount of skill position talent surrounding him, Rodgers will have some prolific passing days. -- Rich Cimini
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
The early surprise: The Ravens rank last in pass defense.
The verdict: Mirage. Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL (514) though two weeks. This is a major surprise considering this is essentially the same secondary that finished No. 6 against the pass last season. The Ravens are too talented in the defensive backfield, which is led by All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton, to struggle like this. "I think the secondary overall is on track, but we're not consistent," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. The Ravens will get to prove themselves over the next three weeks when they face Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. -- Jamison Hensley
Cincinnati Bengals
The early surprise: The offensive line has been among the league's best in pass protection.
The verdict: Real. It's no secret that Cincinnati's pass protection has left plenty to be desired in recent seasons. Through two weeks, however, the Bengals aren't just improved -- they are one of the best teams in the league. They rank fifth in pass block win rate (67.4%). That could get even better once rookie right tackle Amarius Mims returns from a pectoral injury. Even if the Bengals see a dip in this area, there are enough reasons to believe that this trend can be sustained throughout the season. -- Ben Baby
Cleveland Browns
The early surprise: The defense hasn't forced a takeaway.
The verdict: Mirage. The Browns recorded 28 takeaways last season, which was tied for fifth in the NFL, but they have failed to cause a turnover in the first two games this season. Takeaways are something defensive players say they work on in practice and they've come close to making one happen, from defensive end Myles Garrett's two strip sacks to multiple interception opportunities that cornerback Denzel Ward dropped in Week 1. With an upcoming game against the Giants, who have already committed three turnovers, the Browns could be forcing turnovers in bunches soon. -- Daniel Oyefusi
Pittsburgh Steelers
The early surprise: The Steelers are winning without scoring touchdowns.
The verdict: Mirage. The Steelers are 2-0 despite scoring only one touchdown thanks to kicker Chris Boswell and an aggressive, ball-hawking defense. But the Steelers can't rely on those things for an entire season and will need to find the end zone more consistently. Justin Fields threw his first touchdown pass as a Steeler to TE Darnell Washington in the first half of the Week 2 win in Denver, but self-inflicted wounds have prevented other such scores. The Steelers are the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to start 2-0 despite scoring one or zero offensive touchdowns, per ESPN Research. The Steelers' 2010 team, which went 12-4 before losing to the Packers in Super Bowl XLV, is among that group. -- Brooke Pryor
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
The early surprise: The pass rush has been highly effective.
The verdict: Real. The Texans not only have nine sacks, but also a 44% pressure rate through two weeks. If a team can consistently get pressure, those plays will usually turn into sacks or inaccurate and hurried throws. In Week 2, the Texans obliterated the Bears' pass protection, totaling seven sacks, 36 pressures and 11 quarterback hits on Caleb Williams. In Week 1, the Texans sacked Colts' quarterback Anthony Richardson twice and pressured him on 37.5% of his dropbacks. There's no reason to think the Texans, led by edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, can't keep this up. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Indianapolis Colts
The early surprise: The run defense isn't stopping anyone.
The verdict: Mirage. Maybe I'm giving too much benefit of the doubt, but the Colts' awful defensive start has been so jarring and unexpected that it seemingly must get better. The Colts have formidable personnel up front, but they've allowed a league-worst 474 rushing yards through two games -- one of the worst performances through two games in the past two decades. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner seems to have avoided a season-ending injury, so we're banking on the Colts reverting to the unit that kept six opponents under 90 rushing yards last season. We think. -- Stephen Holder
Jacksonville Jaguars
The early surprise: The Jaguars are struggling in every aspect on offense.
The verdict: Real. There's no fixing an offensive line that was the team's biggest weakness entering the season (23rd in pass block win rate and 22nd in run block win rate). Plus, RB Travis Etienne Jr. hasn't gotten going yet, leading receiver Christian Kirk has seven targets and two catches, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is completing 51% of his passes. And the Jaguars keep talking about communication issues in terms of getting playcalls, relaying them in the huddle and breaking the huddle in time to make adjustments. It's not a good formula for success. -- Michael DiRocco
Tennessee Titans
The early surprise: QB Will Levis has made inexcusable turnovers in back-to-back games.
The verdict: Real. Levis has made two mind-boggling mistakes that significantly contributed to losses. The first was a wild interception that cost the Titans in Week 1. Levis' mistake on Sunday -- when he inexplicably flipped the ball backward toward a teammate while falling to the ground, resulting in a momentum-killing fumble -- was arguably worse. Getting Levis to put this habit to bed will be an uphill battle for Titans coach Brian Callahan, who was visibly upset after Tennessee's loss to the Jets. Levis said he has to "rewire his brain" to not make bad decisions in those situations. It may be an issue that takes a while to fix. -- Turron Davenport
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
The early surprise: Rookie QB Bo Nix is having severe growing pains.
The verdict: Real. Based on their playcalling in the first two games, the Broncos seem to think Nix's rookie status is a mirage. And their offensive struggles -- one touchdown in two games with four interceptions from Nix -- will likely remain if that mindset continues. The Broncos have asked Nix to drop back to pass 88 times (third-highest total in league) and have run the ball with somebody other than Nix 35 times. That recipe hasn't worked. Coach Sean Payton has promised to take a long look at what they're asking the offense to do. The first steps may be to slow things down and do more to help their rookie quarterback. -- Jeff Legwold
Kansas City Chiefs
The early surprise: Rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia is off to a tough start.
The verdict: Mirage. The Chiefs pulled Suamataia late in Sunday's game after he looked overwhelmed at times trying to handle Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. This came on the heels of a promising debut against the Ravens. Suamataia's struggles are a troubling development and bear watching, but the Chiefs expected a bumpy road with Suamataia, a second-round draft pick who is 21 years old and started only two seasons in college. He should make progress as the season continues. -- Adam Teicher
Las Vegas Raiders
The early surprise: QB Gardner Minshew has been precise and accurate in his first two games.
The verdict: Mirage. Minshew has completed 77.5% of his passes (55-of-71), which not only leads the NFL among those with at least 39 attempts, but it is also nearly 15 points above his career completion percentage entering the season. It's a pleasant development for the Raiders, but it's also a mirage, given the size of the jump. Still, with sure-handed targets such as receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers and tight ends Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer and Harrison Bryant, the dip in Minshew's completion percentage as the season wears on should not be too steep. -- Paul Gutierrez
Los Angeles Chargers
The early surprise: QB Justin Herbert has thrown for only 274 yards.
The verdict: Mirage. Herbert came into this season with the highest number of passes attempted per game in NFL history (39.1), but he has yet to eclipse 30 pass attempts in a game this season and hasn't thrown for 150 yards in a single game. It's the first time in his career that he's attempted fewer than 30 passes in back-to-back games. The Chargers have leaned on their rushing offense, which has been among the league's best, but they won't be able to win every game that way. Herbert will likely get back to having gaudy passing numbers as the season evolves. -- Kris Rhim
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
The early surprise: The Cowboys' offense isn't generating big plays.
The verdict: Real. Besides wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who will provide the Cowboys' chunk plays? Through two games, Lamb has two of the Cowboys' four pass plays of 20 yards or more. He also has two of the three runs of 10 yards or more produced by the offense. Explosive plays lead to quick points and without them, the Cowboys have to drive the field and open themselves up to mistakes. They had three drives of 10 plays or more Sunday against the Saints and had to settle for field goals on all three. -- Todd Archer
New York Giants
The early surprise: The defense hasn't been able to stop the run.
The verdict: Real. The Giants are allowing 163.0 rushing yards per game. That's bottom 10 in the league. Coach Brian Daboll attributed it to "fundamental tackling" and "discipline of gap control." It's disappointing because this was supposed to be a strength of defensive coordinator Shane Bowen and a point of improvement. Instead, it still seems like a problem. New York allowed 132.4 rushing YPG last season, ranking 29th in the NFL. Depth behind defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II on the defensive interior remains a problem, which makes it tough to fix. -- Jordan Raanan
Philadelphia Eagles
The early surprise: The Eagles have struggled to generate a pass rush.
The verdict: Real. They are tied for the second fewest sacks in the league (three) through two weeks. Some regression could be expected after Philadelphia traded Haason Reddick to the Jets. But his replacement, Bryce Huff, was a pass-rushing specialist with the Jets and has not yet made his presence felt after signing a three-year, $51 million deal in free agency. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter has generated more pressure than Huff, but he has one QB hit and no sacks to show for it. With Kirk Cousins coming off an Achilles injury, the Eagles had a good opportunity against Atlanta to get after the quarterback following a slow start in Week 1 against Green Bay. That opportunity came and went, leaving concern this could be a season-long issue in Philly. -- Tim McManus
Washington Commanders
The early surprise: RB Austin Ekeler and TE Zach Ertz have made an immediate impact.
The verdict: Real. The veterans, coming off injuries with other teams, are the Commanders' two leading receivers. Each has reeled in seven passes, with the 29-year-old Ekeler leading Washington with 99 yards receiving and the 33-year-old Ertz adding 90. Both serve as quality secondary targets for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Beyond receiver Terry McLaurin, the Commanders lack consistent options on the outside. Teams will test Daniels and the offensive line with a lot of different pressure looks, which will give Ekeler and Ertz more opportunities to produce as safety valves for the rookie quarterback. -- John Keim
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
The early surprise: The Bears are struggling to run the ball.
The verdict: Real. One season after boasting the No. 2 rushing offense, the Bears are averaging 77.5 yards on the ground per game, which ranks 28th. A lot has changed personnel-wise, as they lost last year's leading rusher (QB Justin Fields) and have a new lead back (D'Andre Swift) and new offensive coordinator (Shane Waldron). But the Bears have become one-dimensional and have 353 total yards in two games. They got 27 yards off 17 carries from their running backs on Sunday. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams scrambled for 44 yards, but he was blitzed repeatedly and sacked seven times by the Texans. That will continue unless the Bears can establish the run. -- Courtney Cronin
Detroit Lions
The early surprise: Aidan Hutchinson is playing like a superstar.
The verdict: Real. Through two games, the No. 2 pick in 2022 has 5.5 sacks and is proving to be among the favorites for the Defensive Player of the Year award. The edge rusher racked up a career-high 4.5 sacks in Week 2 vs. the Buccaneers, and coach Dan Campbell sees him as a "force" with the ability to tap into another level, based on his work ethic and what he displays in practice. "Hutch is playing at the highest level you can play right now, and I would anticipate he's going to take it up another notch," Campbell said. "He keeps getting better and better and better." -- Eric Woodyard
Green Bay Packers
The early surprise: The defense has already intercepted five passes.
The verdict: Real. No, the Packers aren't going to keep up this pace and end up with 40-plus interceptions this season. But after picking off only seven passes last season -- fewer than all but one team -- it was an emphasis of new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. It helped that GM Brian Gutekunst spent big money in free agency on safety Xavier McKinney, who has two picks already. Throw in a fumble recovery, and the Packers have shown they're going to be able to take the ball away much better than they did in 2023. -- Rob Demovsky
Minnesota Vikings
The early surprise: QB Sam Darnold is off to a fast start.
The verdict: Real. There were widespread expectations Darnold could make a big jump in the Vikings' environment, thanks to a talented supporting cast and a quarterback-centric coaching staff. But Darnold finished Week 2 with the NFL's fifth-best QBR (71.2) and has been trusted to do much more than simply manage the Vikings' offense. Is Darnold going to finish the season as a top-five quarterback? Perhaps not, but there's a lot of evidence to suggest he'll be much better than serviceable. "I think we all need to just start being totally present," coach Kevin O'Connell said, "and when he plays well like he has, we just talk about a guy playing the position at a high level and we move on." -- Kevin Seifert
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
The early surprise: The secondary has been among the best in the league.
The verdict: Real. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards (339) in the league and only one touchdown pass. It's not because their pass rush has been especially fearsome -- Atlanta only has three sacks, tied for the second-lowest total in the NFL. Mostly, it's because the secondary, led by safety Jessie Bates III, has risen to the occasion. Beyond Bates and cornerback A.J. Terrell, the defensive backs were thought to be a question mark entering the season. The addition of safety Justin Simmons late in camp has helped, and corners Mike Hughes, Clark Phillips III and Dee Alford have stepped up. -- Marc Raimondi
Carolina Panthers
The early surprise: The Panthers are 2-of-22 on third-down conversions.
The verdict: Real. This was a huge reason the Panthers opted on Monday to bench second-year quarterback Bryce Young in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. Young's decision-making, particularly on third down, has been questionable at best in the first two games. There were several times in Sunday's 26-3 loss to the Chargers that Young threw short passes that gave the receiver little to no chance to get the first down. Can the 36-year-old Dalton be better? Maybe, but the Panthers have a long way to go on offense. -- David Newton
New Orleans Saints
The early surprise: New Orleans has one of the NFL's best offenses.
The verdict: Real. There was cautious optimism surrounding the Saints and new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak after a blowout win against a struggling Panthers team in their season opener. Now, it's full-blown belief after doing the same thing to the Cowboys. Getting to 2-0 hasn't been luck: The offensive line is clicking after early questions, play-action is working for quarterback Derek Carr and the passing offense, and running back Alvin Kamara looks like his old self again after two seasons where he didn't play up to his usual standards. -- Katherine Terrell
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The early surprise: The Bucs' coaching staff has the team winning despite several key defensive injuries.
The verdict: Real. The Bucs were without last year's first-round pick, defensive tackle Calijah Kancey, and All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. prior to Sunday's game in Detroit. They also lost defensive tackle Vita Vea during the game but still held the Lions to just one touchdown in seven red zone trips in a 20-16 victory. They got outstanding effort from backups such as defensive back Christian Izien, inside linebacker SirVocea Dennis and defensive linemen C.J. Brewer and Mike Greene, who were called up from the practice squad the day before. That doesn't happen without a coaching staff ensuring that players are on the same page and always prepared, which bodes well for later in the season. -- Jenna Laine
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
The early surprise: The Cardinals are scoring a lot of points.
The verdict: Real. The Cardinals are averaging the second most points in the league at 34.5 after dropping 28 in a loss to the Bills and 41 in a blowout win over the Rams. And they're not going to be slowing down anytime soon. Arizona has the offensive tools, from quarterback Kyler Murray to wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch to tight end Trey McBride to running back James Conner, to consistently put up points. They ease in which they've moved down the field in both of their first halves this season is proof that offensive coordinator Drew Petzing's scheme is not just working but thriving. -- Josh Weinfuss
Los Angeles Rams
The early surprise: Running back Kyren Williams has struggled to get going.
The verdict: Real. After finishing third in the NFL in rushing last season, Williams has 75 rushing yards in two games. Much of his struggles are due to the injuries around him. The Rams will get left tackle Alaric Jackson back from suspension in Week 3, which helps, but guard Steve Avila is on injured reserve and will be out at least three more games. Coach Sean McVay also said Monday that guard Jonah Jackson will miss "an extended period of time" after reaggravating his shoulder injury. With wide receiver Puka Nacua on IR and Cooper Kupp potentially joining him, more pressure will be put on Williams. But he'll struggle until the group around him gets healthy. -- Sarah Barshop
San Francisco 49ers
The early surprise: The 49ers are struggling to finish off possessions with touchdowns.
The verdict: Mirage. The league's highest-scoring offense in 2023 has had little trouble moving the ball, averaging 39.5 yards gained on their 20 offensive possessions, which is third in the NFL. The Niners have also made nine red zone trips, tied for second in the league. But after leading the NFL with a red zone touchdown percentage of 67.2% in 2023, the 49ers have only scored TDs on 44.4% of red zone possessions this season. Yes, this is where the Niners miss running back Christian McCaffrey, but they have too much talent for the red zone struggles to continue. Once receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams round into form after contract-related issues, the touchdowns should flow more freely. -- Nick Wagoner
Seattle Seahawks
The early surprise: The Seahawks are winning games despite offensive line issues.
The verdict: Mirage. The Seahawks are 2-0 despite losing right tackle George Fant to a knee injury in the first quarter of their opener, a big blow to an offensive line that was already a major question mark. Stone Forsythe has held his own, but backups tend to get exposed over time, and it's not clear how long Fant will be out or when preferred starter Abraham Lucas will return from the physically unable to perform list. A poor run blocking performance resulted in only 46 rushing yards in Week 2 vs. New England. That's not a sustainable formula, especially with a schedule that's about to get tougher. -- Brady Henderson