Last Thursday, I broke down the chaotic NFC wild-card race. Well, after Week 12, the AFC playoff picture might be an even bigger mess. In a week in which the Bengals and Chargers kept their hopes alive with victories and the Browns and Steelers lost what looked like winnable contests, there are eight teams with realistic hopes of landing one of the three AFC wild-card spots.
Those teams roughly break into two tiers. Including their chances of winning their respective divisions, there are four teams whose chances of advancing to the postseason fall between 50% and 70%, per ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). From there, there's a dramatic drop off to Tier 2, where chances are between 10% and 25%. With five games to go, only the Jets, Patriots, Raiders and Titans have AFC playoff odds below 1%.
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In many cases, this is a race to 10 wins. An AFC team that gets to 10 victories between now and the end of the season should feel good about its chances of playing postseason football. I can't rule out a 10-win team missing or a nine-win team making the playoffs because of all the various permutations, but if you're looking for a round number, start there.
If you want to learn more about what each team needs to do to get to that 10-win mark, here's your breakdown. Leaving aside the current division leaders in the AFC, I'm going to discuss each of the eight teams in the wild-card picture, what they've done well and struggled with this season and their path to advancing out of the regular season. I'll start with the surprise package of the season, which pulled out a critical victory at home on Sunday:
Jump to a team:
BUF | CIN | CLE | DEN
HOU | IND | LAC | PIT
Tier 1: The favorites
Houston Texans (7-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 69.4%
Before the season, I looked at the AFC and thought that 14 teams could credibly say they were expecting to compete for a playoff spot in 2023. The two teams on the outside were the Texans and Colts, both of whom currently have winning records and are likely to actually make it to the postseason when things are said and done.
Just as was the case with the Seahawks last season, I should have trusted the numbers! The 2022 Texans were better than their record. They finished 3-13-1, but their point differential was that of a five-win team. The Lovie Smith-era Texans went 3-5-1 in one-score games, but they also took the Chiefs to overtime, had a lead on the Cowboys in the final minute of the fourth quarter and beat the Jags. They were closer to being relevant than it looked.
And then, the Texans upgraded at the two most important spots in football. You don't need me to tell you C.J. Stroud has been a revelation under center. I just wrote at length about Stroud in my Monday column on unlikely MVP candidates and don't need to rehash that here, but one thing I'll point out that doesn't get enough attention is how consistent he is at moving the chains. It's a hallmark of the Kyle Shanahan-tree quarterbacks.
Stroud turns 38.8% of his pass attempts into first downs, which is the fourth-highest rate in football. He follows Brock Purdy (43.7%) and Tua Tagovailoa (41.4%), and Dak Prescott (39.2%) just snuck ahead of Stroud this past week. Last season, the Texans ranked 31st in percentage of drives that produced a single first down. This season, they're the fourth-best team in football at picking up at least one first down on a possession.
That's great for the offense, but it also makes life easier for the defense. Through 12 games a year ago, the Texans had faced 137 drives and 799 plays, with the latter mark the fifth-highest figure in football. This season, DeMeco Ryans' defense has faced 132 drives and 760 plays. A little over three plays per game doesn't seem like a huge difference, but by the playoffs, that will amount to more than a full game's worth of defensive snaps. It adds up.
Sunday's win over the Broncos was another marker for Houston's improvement. While Will Anderson Jr. and this defensive front have been creating plenty of pressure, those pressures weren't actually leading to sacks. Before Week 12, the Texans ranked 11th in pressure rate but only 25th in sack rate. The average team turns about 23% of its pressures into sacks, but the Texans were hitting at an 18% clip, which is 27th in the league.
But against Russell Wilson, the pressure counted. The Texans took Wilson down three times on 15 pressures, which is at least a small step closer to league average. More importantly, those pressures basically caused the Broncos' offense to melt down. Wilson went 2-of-8 against pressure for minus-12 net passing yards. He took the three sacks, and four of the other five pressures produced scrambles. While Wilson converted a fourth-and-2 on the final drive with one of those scrambles, another pressure by Jonathan Greenard produced a wild Wilson throw and game-sealing interception.
The pass defense is still one of the weaker elements for this Texans team. Houston is 22nd in opponent QBR, and Ryans not having the destroyers the 49ers had at linebacker plays out against play-action. Ryans' defense is 29th in the league in QBR against play-fakes, allowing a league-high 10.4 yards per attempt and 9.6 yards per dropback. You know the defense is seeing plenty of play-action in practice, so this shouldn't be a familiarity issue.
In part, it's because Ryans hasn't been able to settle on a pair of passing-down linebackers. Four players have seen significant snaps at linebacker for Houston this season. Blake Cashman started the season as a special-teamer before entering the lineup on close to a full-time basis in October. He has locked down one spot. The other one has been up for grabs. Veteran Denzel Perryman has been an early-down player for stretches, although he has been in and out of the lineup. Rookie fifth-rounder Henry To'oTo'o had the job early in the season, but after missing two weeks because of an injury, he has played just 23 defensive snaps over the past two games. It looks like Cashman and second-year linebacker Christian Harris are going to be the duo until something changes.
Another second-year player might be more important. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. hasn't had the sort of auspicious start to his career the Texans would have hoped after they took him one pick ahead of Sauce Gardner in the 2022 draft, and he missed half of his rookie season and then spent six games on injured reserve this season because of a hamstring ailment. Given how hamstring injuries can linger, the fear was naturally that Stingley would endure a lost season and enter Year 3 as a question mark for the Texans.
Sure, Stingley has given up a few big plays, but over the past month, he has made a few, too. The LSU product has four interceptions in his past three games, including two on Wilson in Sunday's win. The Texans cut former Seahawks starter Shaquill Griffin last month, so they clearly believe that Stingley's 100% healthy. If the 22-year-old can be a playmaker for a Texans defense that had only eight interceptions before Sunday, it might be just enough to put Houston over the top and ensure that it plays postseason football.
With the Jaguars losing Monday night and Trevor Lawrence suffering a high ankle sprain, the door might be cracked open ever so slightly for the Texans to make a run for the AFC South title. They're now a game back of the Jaguars and tied with the Colts at 7-5, but with the Texans winning just one of their three games in the AFC South this season, both rivals hold key tiebreakers over Houston. The Texans probably need to win each of their three remaining AFC South games to have a meaningful shot of hosting a playoff game. With Stroud looking like a franchise quarterback, of course, it seems like the Houston fans won't have to wait many more years to see postseason football at home.
Cleveland Browns (7-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 66.2%
The wheels have come off a bit for the Browns over the past two weeks. At 7-3, it seemed like they were in great shape to land at least a wild-card spot in the AFC, if not compete with the Ravens for a division title. Since then, the Browns have lost to the Broncos and Rams by a combined score of 65-31. They held a woeful Steelers offense to 10 points but have otherwise allowed 24 points or more in three of their past four games.
If you split the season into two halves, you can see how things have slipped. Over the first six games, the Browns' defense led the league in expected points added per play against, was second in points allowed per drive and ranked third against opposing passers in QBR. It also faced a league-high 80 drives over that stretch, which was one of the reasons it was so remarkable: Jim Schwartz's unit was getting virtually no help from the offense and still excelling.
Over the most recent six games, the Browns have fallen back toward the pack. They're still facing the fourth-most drives in football, but now they're ninth in EPA (expected points added) per play allowed and points allowed per drive, and 12th in QBR. That's nothing to sneeze at, of course, but the best defense in football can win games single-handedly. The ninth-best defense in football needs more help.
Injuries have taken a toll here. Edge rusher Myles Garrett is playing through a shoulder injury; after racking up sacks in seven of the prior eight games, he has gone sackless in the losses to the Broncos and Rams. Cornerback Denzel Ward, who was back playing at an All-Pro level after an uneven 2022 campaign, missed the Broncos and Rams games because of a shoulder injury. Ward will return, but veteran third safety Rodney McLeod suffered a biceps injury before the Broncos game and will miss the remainder of the season.
The Browns have been aggressive on defense; Schwartz has played man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league. It's one thing to do that with Ward in the mix and another when one of either Mike Ford and Kahlef Hailassie are on the field for every snap, as was the case against the Rams. The Browns aren't naive to that change, but even their zone coverages aren't going to be as sharp; the Rams hit a disguised Invert-2 look that Schwartz has shown throughout the season for a long touchdown pass to Puka Nacua last week.
Naturally, if the defense is just good as opposed to great, the offense needs to compensate. Injuries are weighing the Browns down there, too. In addition to quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Browns are down their best playmaker in running back Nick Chubb and both starting tackles in Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin. Wills might be able to come back from his knee injury later in the season, but star wideout Amari Cooper suffered a concussion in the loss to the Rams, costing the offense yet another critical playmaker.
I'm not sure any Browns fans were hoping to see Jerome Ford, Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman as the key offensive skill position players by December. And I feel even more confident in suggesting that there wasn't a Browns fan on the planet who expected Joe Flacco to be throwing passes to those receivers. Flacco made his Browns debut Sunday, just two weeks after joining the organization.
Frankly, he looked better than I would have expected. There was plenty of zip on the 38-year-old's passes, and he looked more confident in the context of the offense than any quarterback should after two weeks. He also moved better than you would expect for a rusty QB approaching 40, as the former Ravens standout was sacked just twice on 46 dropbacks. By EPA per dropback, this was the sixth-best performance by a Cleveland quarterback this season.
At the same time, Flacco completed just 52.3% of his passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt and threw a brutal interception on a Sail concept in the fourth quarter when the Browns were down by one point with 6:51 to go. I'd be willing to chalk that up to miscommunication between a new quarterback and his receivers, but I've seen too many Flacco arm punts over the years to entirely write that off. He doesn't have to be great, but he can't hand the opposing team short fields.
The good news for the Browns is that most of the work is already done. Three more wins down the stretch probably gets the Browns back into the postseason. Cincinnati's win on Monday night hurt their chances, but the Browns are also facing a Jaguars team this weekend that isn't expected to have Trevor Lawrence. They get home games against the Bears and Jets in December.
Then again, the 2020 Browns were in position to lock up a playoff berth in the next-to-last week of the season, went to New York and got upset by a 1-13 Jets team. It took a dramatic victory over the Steelers the following week to get the Browns in. Cleveland would have to travel to Cincinnati in Week 18; if Bengals QB Jake Browning keeps playing the way he did Monday night, that game could be very meaningful.
Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 56.5%
The Colts were unlikely playoff contenders heading into the season, and that was before losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson after 11 quarters of football (shoulder). And while they pulled out wins over the Texans and Ravens in September, it seemed like they were settling in as a pleasantly competitive team as opposed to one that would advance out of the regular season. After home losses to the Browns and Saints, the Colts were 3-5 and had just a 9.9% chance of making it into the postseason.
A month of victories changes things. Shane Steichen's team pulled out its fourth straight win on Sunday, the first time the Colts have won four straight since Andrew Luck retired. Admittedly, they haven't exactly had the stiffest competition: The Panthers, Patriots, Buccaneers and Titans are a combined 12-36, and three of those four wins were by seven points or fewer. The Colts needed a Mac Jones meltdown in the red zone to hold on to a 10-6 lead over the Patriots and a missed extra point by Nick Folk to push last week's game against the Titans into overtime, where Gardner Minshew produced a walk-off touchdown drive.
Wins in the bank are wins, though, and the Colts have found a formula that has worked for them. They've been incredible on special teams; the only team to generate more win expectancy on special teams over the past four games is the Eagles, who needed a 59-yard field goal by Jake Elliott to extend a Week 12 game against the Bills. Indy's Matt Gay is 9-for-11 over that stretch, and his two misses have been from deep. The Colts also blocked two punts against the Titans, injuring star punter Ryan Stonehouse with the second block. That injury forced Ryan Tannehill into the game to serve as the backup holder for Folk, who then missed the critical extra point that would have given Tennessee a one-point lead.
The special teams success probably won't stick, but the Colts are legitimately a much better team along the line of scrimmage than they were in 2022. That starts on defense, where last season's team struggled to get after the quarterback. DeForest Buckner still impressed, and veteran import Yannick Ngakoue got his usual 9.5 sacks, but the young players GM Chris Ballard acquired with extensive draft capital weren't producing takedowns.
That has changed this season. The Colts have a league-high 13.1% sack rate over the past month. While the 30% pressure rate underlying it probably doesn't support them turning into the 1985 Bears, there has been welcome signs of life. Former 49ers pass-rusher Samson Ebukam is having a career year with eight sacks, four of which have come in the past two games. It's fair to suggest these haven't been the stiffest offensive lines on the other side of the field, but Ebukam beat Bucs star Tristan Wirfs for a strip sack of Baker Mayfield in the fourth quarter to help the Colts finish off the Bucs.
There have also been signs of progress from 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye and second-rounder Dayo Odeyingbo, who each have 4.5 sacks in their past four games. Odeyingbo has found some success moving inside on passing downs. Those guys aren't always creating the initial pressures, but Buckner and rotation players like Jake Martin and Isaiah Land have created opportunities other players have finished. Indy has also held those four teams to four touchdowns on 12 trips inside the red zone; only the Falcons have been stingier in the red zone over the past month.
The offensive line, too, has been much better. What was once the strength of the team fell apart last season, with Indy's stars looking average and the more questionable parts of the line around them barely looking playable. The Colts' line made too many mental mistakes even before former coach Frank Reich was fired, and the offense fell apart as a result.
While the Colts aren't a top-five unit again, they're much improved there in 2023. Quenton Nelson looks much more like the player who appeared to be on a Hall of Fame track before 2022. Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith have missed time, but the Colts have gotten impressive results out of second-year left tackle Bernhard Raimann and right guard Will Fries, who were playing the weak spots on the line a season ago. Raimann, a raw prospect without much football experience who looked overmatched last season, now looks like he's going to be a keeper at left tackle.
This still isn't a great pass-blocking line, but the Colts rank eighth in run block win rate and fifth in rush yards over expectation per carry (via NFL Next Gen Stats). When Minshew gets the ball out quickly, he has been fine; he's No. 1 in the league in QBR over the past month when he gets the ball out in two seconds or less, which aligns with the timing for Steichen's run-pass option packages. When Minshew holds the ball, trouble brews, like the strip sack he took in the red zone Sunday that cost the Colts at least three points.
Indy's formula from this winning streak probably isn't sustainable, but the Colts are going to be favored in some contests down the stretch. Three of their final five games are against backup quarterbacks in Browning, Mitch Trubisky and Aidan O'Connell. In Week 18, they get a home game against the Texans. Before the season, that seemed like it might be a game to see whether the Houston would end up with a top-two pick. Now, that game might be a play-in contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Chances to make the playoffs: 55.8%
It hasn't been fun to be a Steelers fan these past few weeks. After months of frustration surrounding Matt Canada and a moribund offense, they finally fired their embattled offensive coordinator two weeks ago. Quarterback Kenny Pickett and the offense immediately responded with the team's most impressive performance of the season in a 16-10 victory over the Bengals. For a moment, it seemed like they were building something on offense.
Well, that lasted a week. The offense struggled early against the Cardinals on Sunday, and then Pickett was injured on a quarterback sneak and left the game. Lightning and torrential rain struck the Pittsburgh area, soaking fans and causing the game to be delayed twice. A game that was expected to be a cakewalk at home against a 2-10 Cardinals team turned into a 24-10 defeat.
Now the Steelers seem vulnerable again. Pickett underwent surgery on his high ankle sprain, and while he wasn't placed on injured reserve, he is expected to miss several weeks. Mitch Trubisky went 11-of-17 for 117 yards and a touchdown in garbage time while filling in for the injured starter and will be in the lineup while Pickett is sidelined. The Steelers could also turn to Mason Rudolph, who will back up Trubisky in Week 14 against the Patriots.
On one hand, you could make the argument the Steelers probably aren't going to miss out on that much. Pickett has been terrible this season, with an expected breakout instead giving way to a season that has ranked 26th among 29 qualifying passers in QBR. Trubisky isn't good -- we're just over a season removed from him being benched by Mike Tomlin after a reported halftime skirmish with wideout Diontae Johnson -- but neither was Pickett. It's not like this is a drop from Aaron Rodgers to Zach Wilson.
While Trubisky is not a worse pure passer than Pickett, the one thing Pickett has done well has helped the Steelers win: avoiding turnovers. Leaving aside the starts he left injured, Pickett has made it through 16 of his 23 pro starts (70%) without throwing an interception or losing a fumble. The Steelers are 12-4 in those games. They're 2-5 when he turns the ball over at least once. Trubisky is nowhere near as careful with the football. In his 54 healthy starts as a pro, he has avoided turnovers just 21 times for a 39% clip. He did manage it three times in five starts with the Steelers in 2022, going 2-1 in those contests. Unsurprisingly, Trubisky was 0-2 when he did turn the ball over at least once.
For all of Pickett's weaknesses and Canada's schematic issues, the offense the Steelers were running was a low-risk, low-reward system. Virtually all of Pickett's throws were short checkdowns or back-shoulder passes/fades to the sideline. He took sacks at an average rate, but Pickett was good about holding on to the football when those sacks came. Now, with Trubisky, the formula might have to change.
I'm not sure we can count on a more explosive offense to make up for the increased risk of turnovers. Can the defense play better? Probably. Pittsburgh has made big plays in key situations this season, but on the whole, its defense is ninth in EPA per play against and 10th in points allowed per possession. Good, of course, but the Steelers are right near the Patriots in both categories. Playing that level of defense alone won't win you football games.
The good news for Pittsburgh is that it just got a key contributor back. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick missed a month because of a hamstring injury before returning to the lineup against the Cardinals, reuniting Pittsburgh's big three of Fitzpatrick, Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt. They had combined to play just 11 snaps together before last week, with Heyward getting injured early in the season and Fitzpatrick going down in Week 8. Breakout rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. hadn't been in the starting lineup before Heyward went down; that four-man group played just one snap together before Sunday.
Of course, that foursome was on the field together for 43 snaps last weekend, and despite driving rain, the Cardinals still scored 24 points. The defense didn't play poorly, but this was the most concise example of why the Steelers have needed to avoid turnovers on offense to keep their formula going. While Arizona had a wildly impressive 99-yard touchdown drive, it didn't have a single other drive over 50 yards. The eight drives that started on the Cardinals' side of the field produced a total of 10 points.
The problem is Trubisky lost a fumble that gave the Cardinals the ball on Pittsburgh's 21-yard line, and a special teams penalty after a punt handed Arizona a second drive that began on the Steelers' 33. Both of those drives produced touchdowns. Before Sunday, the Steelers had allowed only one touchdown across the 10 opponent drives starting on their side of the field, which was the best mark in football. It's also unsustainable. The Cards went 2-for-2 on those drives in Week 13, and it won them the football game.
On Sunday, the Steelers were comfortable favorites against an overmatched opponent and lost. Not great. On Thursday night, they will again be expected to win against one of the worst teams in football, as Tomlin's team is a six-point favorite at home against the Patriots. Beating New England would get them to eight wins, which would keep them on track to advance to the postseason. If they can beat the Patriots and Colts in their next two games and then win one of their final three against the Bengals, Seahawks or Ravens, they're all but assured of a return to the postseason. Those are winnable matchups on paper, but then again, so was the Cardinals game.
Tier 2: The long shots
Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 21%
Bills fans aren't going to want to hear this, but their team isn't as bad as it seems. Buffalo is 6-6, but it has the point differential of an 8.5-win team. It ranks fifth in the league in point differential (plus-101), our strongest simple predictor of win-loss records. It is sixth in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and fourth in the FPI's rankings. I know it feels like this core's run is about to come to a close -- I feel the same way! -- but objectively, the Bills are a much better team than their record.
How they've played this season might not be indicative of what they'll do in the weeks to come. The injuries to star linebacker Matt Milano and top cornerback Tre'Davious White have flattened what typically is a top defense. While the offense has drawn more attention and led to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, the defense hasn't been able to hold up.
With Milano and White on the field this season, the Bills had allowed minus-0.17 EPA per play, which would be the league's best mark over a full season. Without them, they are allowing 0.01 EPA per play, which ranks 20th. The injuries suffered by defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam, who had stepped in to replace White at cornerback, haven't helped matters.
We saw the impact of their absence during the loss to the Eagles in Week 12, when the Bills' offense scored 34 points, only for Jalen Hurts & Co. to score 23 points over the fourth quarter and overtime to win 37-34. The Bills were probably unlucky to see Jake Elliott make a 59-yard field goal to tie up things and force overtime, but that's the combination that has flummoxed them this season. They're banged up, they're not as deep as they once were and, on top of all that, they haven't been very lucky.
At the same time, we've seen underperforming teams rescue themselves from this situation before. Over the past 30 years, the Bills have the best point differential of any team without a winning record after 12 games. It's not exactly banner-worthy, but it's impressive enough in its own right. The average team with a point differential within 10 points of Buffalo's plus-101 total had won 8.6 games, right in line with the 8.5-win Pythagorean expectation for this stretch.
If we look over that span and take the 30 best teams by point differential that didn't have a winning record after Week 12, there are some optimistic signs. Nine of those 30 teams made it to the playoffs. Those 30 teams were a combined 174-186 (.483) before Week 12. Afterward? They went 71-47 (.601). Many of them also only had four games left to rescue themselves from anonymity, but with an 17th game on the slate, Buffalo has a fifth game left to try to prove it's actually a legitimate playoff contender.
To be fair, the recent examples there are teams that struggled early then got hot as the season went along, like the 2018 Colts and 2021 Eagles. The Bills were great early, and they haven't been up to the task recently. Point differential is a much better measure of performance than win-loss record, but they were plus-84 through the first month of the season, and they have been plus-17 over the eight ensuing games. Their one significant win over that stretch is a 26-point victory over the Jets.
Here's the other problem: The Bills likely have a more difficult slate ahead of them than the vast majority of those teams. Even after having played the Eagles -- prior to the bye -- the Bills are set to face the league's toughest schedule from here on out, including games against the Chiefs and Cowboys over the next two weeks. The Bills need to win at least one of those two, preferably the one against the AFC rival Chiefs, to keep alive their playoff hopes. It would take a miracle for a 6-8 Buffalo team to have everything go its way over the three subsequent games and advance to the postseason.
On the other hand, if the Bills win one of those two games, they have a shot. If they upset the Chiefs and sweep the Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins to end the season, they would be slight favorites to advance to the postseason. Of course, they have already lost to the Patriots, and the Dolphins game is in Miami against a team that could be trying to lock up the 1-seed in the AFC. Buffalo is better than its record, but unless the team has found some answers on defense during the bye week, it might be too late to matter.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)
Chances to make the playoffs: 14.1%
The Chargers also have underperformed their plus-17 point differential this season, although that one might be a little less surprising than seeing what has gone on in Buffalo. The perception that they get less out of a core of star players than they should is pervasive at this point, and after seeing the Chargers whiff away their Week 12 game against the Ravens by turning the ball over four times, I'm not going to argue otherwise.
The best case for the Chargers is simply that they still have their starting quarterback and the teams ahead of them in the postseason race do not. The Bolts rank 12th in the AFC, but five of the teams ahead of them will be starting backups for most of December, including the teams ranked four through seven. Having a healthy Justin Herbert is a leg up on the competition.
Unfortunately for the Chargers, most of the teams they'll face from here on out aren't starting those backups. After shutting out Bailey Zappe and the Patriots on Sunday, the Chargers are projected to face just one backup over the remainder of the season, which will come when they see Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders on a short week next Thursday. The Chargers still have a home-and-home against the Broncos, what could amount to an elimination game versus the Bills and a Week 18 home game against the Chiefs, who are more likely to have something to play for after losing to the Packers on Sunday.
Those teams are all dealing with their own imperfections, but so are the Chargers. While Los Angeles is coming off a solid performance against the Ravens and its first shutout since 2017 in the win over New England, Brandon Staley's defense ranks 25th in EPA per play allowed and 22nd in points allowed per drive. L.A. has only had edge rusher Joey Bosa for 320 snaps this season as he has battled various injuries, but this isn't anything new. Staley hasn't been able to get the defense to click for the entirety of his tenure as coach.
To whatever extent the defense has thrived this season, it has been because of the guys who have needed to step up in Bosa's absence. After a disappointing debut season in Los Angeles, Khalil Mack has roared on, leading the league with 15 sacks and five forced fumbles. He has run remarkably hot and shouldn't keep this up next season -- he only has 15 knockdowns all season -- but those sacks have helped save L.A. at times.
The other bright spot has been rookie Tuli Tuipulotu, who has seen more playing time than expected with Bosa unavailable. The second-round pick has four sacks, eight tackles for loss and nine knockdowns. Two of those sacks have come aligned on the interior with Bosa and Mack on the field, so Tuipulotu will need to prove that he can win consistently on the outside, but Staley should feel like his defense can still survive rushing four without Bosa.
If they don't get home? Look out. The Chargers rank 30th in EPA per play allowed when they don't get pressure on the opposing quarterback, and those numbers align with what you see from them when you look at their personnel and how they play on a week-to-week basis. Sloppy play and disappointing performances led the organization to trade away free agent disappointment J.C. Jackson and bench cornerback Michael Davis, who took over for Jackson after he ruptured the patella tendon in his right knee last season. Safety Nasir Adderley, who looked like a budding star during Staley's first season in 2021, declined rapidly in 2022 before retiring after the season.
What's left isn't inspiring. Corner Asante Samuel Jr. hasn't developed as a pro. He has allowed passer ratings in coverage of 96.8, 95.3 and 93.1 in his three seasons and continues to make mistakes that cost the team yardage. Only eight corners have allowed more yards after catch as the nearest defender in coverage this season than him. Deane Leonard, a seventh-round pick who played four snaps a season ago as a rookie, has been forced to become an every-down starter. The nickelback is Essang Bassey, who was cut by the Broncos after their dismal start to the campaign. Safety Alohi Gilman is allowing a passer rating north of 100 in coverage. Derwin James is still everpresent, but even the star safety has been sloppy, already incurring four personal fouls for unnecessary roughness this season.
While the Chargers run a Vic Fangio-style defense designed to funnel underneath and take away big plays, allowing explosive plays to the offense has been a problem throughout his tenure. They have allowed 25 gains of 30 yards or more to opposing offenses this season, trailing only the Commanders, who fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio. Over the past three campaigns, the Chargers and Commanders are tied for the league lead in allowing 84 such plays. Los Angeles plays fast and has seen its defense face the fifth-most plays, which doesn't help, but this defense isn't good enough against the run to justify giving up as many big plays as they do downfield.
The good news, I suppose, is that everyone should be motivated. Staley is likely coaching for his job. Running back Austin Ekeler and wide receiver Keenan Allen are playing for new deals. Mack is taking what will probably be his last run at winning a sack title. Wideout Quentin Johnston is trying to overcome what has been a painful start to his pro career with drops. For once with the Chargers, however, expectations are not high.
Denver Broncos (6-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 12.6%
As soon as they were back, the Broncos seemed to fall apart. After embarrassing losses to the Dolphins and Jets that helped add up to a 1-5 start, Sean Payton's team had battled back and won five straight. At 6-5, it felt like they had overcome their disastrous start and gotten the fans to buy in to Russell Wilson 3.0.
Those fans couldn't have been enthused by what they saw Sunday against the Texans. In a game that could be crucial in terms of wild-card tiebreakers, Wilson threw three interceptions and the offense went 0-for-11 on third down in a 22-17 loss. The defense held an explosive Houston offense below its season average, but Nico Collins still managed to rack up 191 receiving yards and a touchdown in his best NFL performance.
The most frustrating exchange happened in the third quarter. The Broncos strip-sacked C.J. Stroud on a third-and-long and had four players surrounding the football, but when I say fumble recoveries are random, it's for a reason. The Texans eventually landed on the football and punted. Wilson threw an interception on the next play. What should have been a short field for the Broncos turned into a short field for the Texans, who immediately scored to take a two-possession lead.
The Broncos did not recover this fumble pic.twitter.com/0jsl7QENN6
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 6, 2023
You could argue the Broncos were unlucky to not fall on that ball, but it would also be realistic to point out that they were in a position to be 7-5 because the breaks had gone their way during their five-game winning streak. Denver posted a turnover margin of plus-13 during that stretch, racking up three or more takeaways in four of its five victories. It forced an impressive 15 fumbles over that five-game span, but it ran a little hot in recovering 10 of those 15.
As my colleague Mina Kimes mentioned in her breakdown of the five-game winning streak, Wilson and the offense turned the ball over just three times during that stretch, a feat that also wasn't going to be sustainable. This offense doesn't offer enough in terms of consistent verticality or big-play ability to overcome multiple turnovers or struggles in the red zone.
Payton's plan for getting the most out of Wilson has been to throw shorter and trust the veteran quarterback to make smart decisions. Wilson is averaging just 6.6 air yards per throw, which is easily the lowest rate of his career. He takes shots downfield on nearly 13% of his dropbacks, but this offense doesn't really have an intermediate game. Wilson has thrown 40 passes all season in the 11-to-20-yard range, comfortably the fewest for any player who has started all season. Wilson has posted a 14.9 completion percentage over expected (CPOE) on those passes, so the offense might call for more of them, but Payton basically has focused Wilson on being a two-level quarterback as opposed to a three-level passer.
The player who has broken out over this stretch is wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Since the start of winning streak, he has averaged 2.2 yards per route run, which ranks 23rd among all wideouts. He has done that while making a series of spectacular catches, including the most unlikely completion of the Next Gen Stats era to score a touchdown in the win over the Bills. He looks like the receiver Wilson trusts most.
I'd also like to see Samaje Perine get a little more run with the offense. The former Bengals running back has played 35% of the offensive snaps while backing up Javonte Williams, but Perine has been incredibly valuable as a receiver. He has averaged a whopping 2.6 yards per route run this season, which tops all running backs with at least 25 targets by more than a half-yard and is in line with what Deebo Samuel and Travis Kelce have produced over a full campaign. One big play can warp those numbers, but Perine's longest gain has been 29 yards.
Part of a back's success in the passing game comes down to timing and Payton calling the right play in the right moment, but Perine is showing he can be a valuable second option in this passing game. He even has averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 37 rush attempts. The Broncos are the league's seventh-heaviest rush offense on early downs in neutral game situations, but more Perine in the passing attack could make Wilson's life easier.
While rescuing their name from the scrap heap after a horrific start has saved the Broncos from being an embarrassment, there's still a real pressure to accomplish something over the next five weeks. This is one of the league's oldest teams by snap-weighted age. Wilson's contract has $37 million guaranteed for 2025 that comes due in March 2024, and the team could cut him if it sees him as a liability, albeit at the staggering cost of $85 million in dead money spread over two years. Sweeping the home-and-home against the Chargers that starts this weekend is essential for Denver's playoff hopes, and it might end up deciding what the makeup of the division looks like come 2024.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
Chances to make the playoffs: 12.6%
They're alive! It felt like the Bengals were all but out of the playoff race. Having lost three straight to drop to 5-6 and losing quarterback Joe Burrow for the season with a dislocated right wrist, they were rapidly falling out of contention. With a road game in prime time against Trevor Lawrence and the high-flying Jaguars, a loss would have probably made it safe to stop paying attention to Cincinnati before its revenge tour in 2024.
Then, to the surprise of just about everybody, Jake Browning caught on fire. One week after an anonymous performance in a 16-10 loss to the Steelers, the new starter in Cincinnati delivered the sort of performance that Burrow would have been proud to produce. Browning went 32-of-37 for 354 yards and a touchdown, adding a 21-yard scramble and a one-yard TD run for good measure. It was just the eighth game of the season in which a quarterback attempted more than 30 passes, completed more than 80% of his throws and averaged more than 8.0 yards per attempt. It took some help from Cincy wideout Ja'Marr Chase and an ankle injury to Lawrence, but the Bengals came out of Jacksonville with a 34-31 overtime victory.
The other quarterbacks who have accomplished that feat this season are mostly stars. Burrow! Justin Herbert! Dak Prescott! Jared Goff! One of the exceptions might be more concerning to Bengals fans: Mac Jones, who went 25-of-30 for 272 yards and two touchdowns in an upset win over the Bills. What looked like an auspicious moment for the third-year quarterback was just one special game amid a dismal campaign. There are no guarantees Browning's fantastic start against Jacksonville sticks around for the remainder of the season.
At the same time, Browning's performance showed us he actually has a ceiling that includes a dominant offensive performance against a good defense. More importantly, he showed that to Zac Taylor and the coaching staff, who seemed to have a limited, conservative offense scripted early before opening things up as the game went along and Browning proved he was capable of more.
It's realistic to suggest Browning will need help. Monday's outing showed a possible way through for a rushing attack that hasn't been very complementary this season. The Bengals seemed to open up the door for rookie back Chase Brown, who had just two carries and eight offensive snaps all season before the Jags game. Brown carried the ball nine times for 61 yards, suggesting he deserves a regular role in the running back rotation. Joe Mixon didn't break any big gains, but he did score two touchdowns on the ground and turned his 25 touches into 117 yards from scrimmage. The Bengals were the most pass-happy offense in football in neutral scripts with Burrow under center, but they dropped to 12th against Jacksonville. If they can run the ball effectively and avoid falling behind early, that'll take pressure off their quarterback.
My biggest concern for the Bengals, unfortunately, isn't on the offensive side of the ball. After Cincinnati's rebuild in the secondary over the offseason because of cap constraints, I was concerned the Bengals wouldn't be as creative and efficient against the pass as they had been in years past. Unfortunately, they've been even worse than I expected.
The Bengals are allowing a league-high 8.1 yards per pass attempt. They rank 24th in QBR allowed, a product of the one thing they've done well, which is intercepting passes. (Their 12 picks are the fifth most in the league.) Take interceptions out of the equation for everyone and Cincinnati drops to 31st in QBR allowed. When the pass rush doesn't get home, it ranks 28th. You get the idea: It's interception or bust for this secondary.
Is that about to get better? I'm not sure. Cam Taylor-Britt, who had probably been the team's best cornerback in his sophomore season, is on injured reserve due to an ankle sprain. Chidobe Awuzie, who had been playing at an All-Pro level before tearing an ACL last year, had only been healthy enough to serve as a part-time player for most of the season. He has been forced into an every-down role over the past two weeks by the Taylor-Britt injury.
The Bengals have gone from veterans Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates at safety to 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill and rookie third-rounder Jordan Battle. It's a work in progress. Without its last line of defense from the past couple of seasons, Lou Anarumo's unit has allowed 53 gains of 20 yards or more, tied with the Commanders for the league's most. The Bengals have gotten pressures and sacks at roughly league-average rates, so it seems fair to pin their defensive struggles on the secondary.
The good news is they're about to face a series of backup quarterbacks. The Bengals get Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs, presumably, over the next two weeks. Kenny Pickett might not be back for the Week 16 trip to Pittsburgh, and while Patrick Mahomes is the one notable exception to this parade, the Bengals finish up with whoever isn't Deshaun Watson under center for the Browns in Week 18. It's not out of the question that Cincinnati gets hot on defense against a bunch of backups and sneaks into the postseason at 10-7.