It is Week 7 of the 2023 NFL season, and a partial list of quarterbacks who led their teams to victory on Sunday includes Tyrod Taylor, PJ Walker and Tyson Bagent -- not to mention Mac Jones beating the Bills. Sometimes I think there's no such thing as an overreaction to the wild stuff that goes on in the NFL from week to week.
One week, the Browns smother the unbeaten 49ers. The next week, they give up 38 to Gardner Minshew and the Colts ... and still win. One week, the Lions have us wondering whether they could be the best team in the NFC. The next week, they get an ugly reminder that the NFC is not the AFC. The Bears had scored 30 points in just four of 23 games over the past two seasons and dropped 30 on the Raiders on Sunday with a rookie backup quarterback out of Division II. And one month to the day after their last offensive touchdown, the Giants managed to score two against the Commanders.
We think we know, but we don't know. And that is what makes this weekly exercise in overreaction so much fun. Let's open up this week's edition with a check on the shifting power structure in the AFC as we judge a few potential takeaways from the weekend's games.
Jump to:
Ravens over Bills in AFC?
Bagent over Fields in Chicago?
Time for Brissett in Washington?
Chiefs' offense still elite status?
Tush push to be outlawed?
The Ravens have a better chance of reaching the Super Bowl than the Bills
Nobody looked better on Sunday than the Ravens, and that's true in all facets of the game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson played like an MVP, in complete control of Todd Monken's offense as a passer and a runner. A brilliant player who has already won that award once, Jackson might have actually played his best all-around game as a pro Sunday. And Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald absolutely ran circles around Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in a matchup of buzzy young coordinators whose names you're likely to hear when head-coach interviews start in January.
The Ravens built a 28-0 halftime lead and destroyed the Lions 38-6, stamping themselves as a dominant team that's the healthiest it has been all season and might be working its way out of its growing pains in a first-year offense.
Meanwhile, the Bills went up to Foxborough, Massachusetts, and continued to languish in what is now a three-week malaise. They lost to the Jaguars in London in Week 5, barely hung on to win an ugly one against the Giants in Week 6 and then fell 29-25 on Sunday to a moribund Patriots team that had scored a total of 20 points in October. Buffalo is now 4-3 overall -- just 1-2 in division games -- and it feels like it has been a very long time since that massive Week 4 victory over the Dolphins.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
We aren't just seeing Jackson start to master his new offense; we're seeing him actually develop and make strides as a quarterback in this new offense. For example, Jackson had 246 passing yards when under duress Sunday. That is the most yards under duress by any quarterback in any game since 2009, when ESPN began tracking QB pressures. The previous high was 205 by Patrick Mahomes in 2018. In the first six games, Jackson had 235 such yards total. If Jackson is actually going to become a better player while the group around him gets healthier (hello, Odell Beckham Jr.!), the sky's the limit for Baltimore.
Buffalo? I don't know, man. Like, we've seen what the Bills can be when they're at their best, and that's a legit Super Bowl contender. But it has been a while since we've seen them at their best. After losing to the Jets in their season opener, they looked dominant in Weeks 2 through 4. But the first two of those three wins came against the Raiders and Commanders, neither of which looks like a good team, and the one against the Dolphins appears to have taken a lot out of them.
Quarterback Josh Allen doesn't look comfortable. After going 2-for-10 with an interception Sunday on throws traveling 15 or more yards downfield, his completion percentage for the season on such throws has dropped to 46%. He has seven interceptions on such throws this year, which already matches his second most in any season (seven in 2021, nine in 2018). Of course, he has also thrown six touchdowns on such passes, so he's not likely to stop trying it any time soon.
Maybe the Bills need another receiver. Maybe they just still haven't really recovered as an offense from losing then-offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants last year. But especially on a day when their defense couldn't stop a quarterback in Jones whom everyone has been stopping, the struggles of the Buffalo offense stood out as an extremely worrisome trend.
Tyson Bagent should be the Bears' starting quarterback even once Justin Fields is healthy again
Bagent, the unknown rookie from Division II Shepherd University (in Shepherdstown, West Virginia), stepped in Sunday for the injured Fields and led the Bears to their second victory of the season. He was 21-for-29 for 162 yards and a passing touchdown, and he chipped in 24 rushing yards on three carries. Perhaps most importantly, he did not turn the ball over.
Nothing spectacular numbers-wise, but more than enough to take out a Raiders team that was also playing its backup quarterback. Fields is out with a thumb injury, and the team believes he's truly week-to-week and that his return will depend on how soon his grip strength returns. So it's not out of the question that we see Bagent again next Sunday night when the Bears take on the Chargers.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full kudos to Bears offensive coordinator Luke Getsy for drawing up a game plan to keep Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby out of Bagent's lap. Part of that was a huge game by third-string Bears running back D'Onta Foreman, who scored three touchdowns. And part of it was the ability to scheme up incredibly quick throws for Bagent. The Bears' screen game was especially potent Sunday, and it contributed to his ability to avoid pressure. Bagent was 19-of-22 for 153 yards when not pressured Sunday but 2-of-7 for 9 yards (and, oddly, the lone touchdown throw) when pressured.
You could make a case, based on how erratic Fields has been, that this is the way to go for the Bears if they want to win games. And maybe they will stick with Bagent. But this was the Raiders, and the Bears will face much tougher competition going forward, starting with L.A. next week.
And look, if you're the Bears, one of the things you have to do this season is figure out what you truly have in Fields so that you can decide next offseason whether you need to look elsewhere at quarterback for the long term. Fields brings a level of mobility and a ceiling that Bagent likely doesn't offer, and the only big-picture reason to start the rookie over a healthy Fields would be if you've already decided Fields can't be the guy. I don't get the feeling the Bears are there yet, and once Fields is healthy, I'll bet we see him get another shot.
Ron Rivera needs to bench Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett if he wants to keep his job
The Commanders have lost four of their past five games to drop to 3-4 on the season after Sunday's loss to the injury-shredded Giants. Howell, the second-year quarterback out of North Carolina, has been Washington's starter since the beginning of the season and has shown some flashes of what he can do, but he has also been incredibly reckless.
He was sacked six times Sunday, which sounds like a lot unless you've been paying attention to Howell's season. He has been sacked at least four times in each of the Commanders' seven games and a total of 40 times so far this year. Since sacks became an official stat in 1963, the only quarterback who has been sacked more times in the first seven games of a season is David Carr, who was sacked 43 times in the first seven games of his 2002 season. And Howell has also thrown seven interceptions and fumbled once.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I don't see how the Commanders can keep running Howell out there if he's going to keep putting himself and the ball in harm's way this often. I mean, he was sacked six times on Sunday by the Giants. New York had a total of five sacks all season prior to Sunday's game. Howell is on pace to be sacked 97 times this season. The all-time record is 76 by ... yeah, David Carr in 2002. That was a rough year. But Howell is on pace to break that record this season in Week 15, and only because Washington has a bye in Week 14. There's no way to sustain an offense when your quarterback is constantly moving the chains backward instead of forward.
The Commanders are under new ownership, which generally calls a coach's job into some level of question. There is obviously time for them to salvage their season. Brissett has been a competent-to-good starting quarterback in the NFL, finishing eighth in QBR last season with Cleveland (62.0), and could at least calm things down a bit while Howell works in a backup role on the parts of his game that need ironing out.
It might be a good idea to make this move before it's too late.
The Chiefs' offense is still elite as long as Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are on the field
Kansas City hasn't looked like its old explosive self very much this season, held to 20 or fewer points in three of its six games entering Sunday. But that changed against the Chargers. Mahomes threw for 321 yards in the first half -- the second-highest passing yardage total in any half of his career. Kelce caught nine passes for 143 yards and a touchdown in that first half. And the Chiefs were up on the Chargers 24-17 at the half and held on through a much more reasonable second half to win 31-17 and improve to 6-1 for the season.
When it was over, Mahomes had 424 yards and four touchdown passes, Kelce had 179 yards and a touchdown on 12 catches, and Steve Spagnuolo's defense had stiffened up the way it has all season and held the Chargers off the scoreboard for the final 30 minutes. The Chiefs lead the division by three full games over the second-place Raiders and are looking like a lock to win their eighth straight AFC West title. They're the 18th defending Super Bowl champion to lose their season opener -- remember the Lions in Week 1? -- but the first of those 18 to win their next six in a row after that.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The criticisms have been legit. The Chiefs are lacking a true No. 1 wide receiver. They are ridiculously young and inexperienced at the receiver position. They are struggling at both tackle spots. Their offense has been good this year but not explosive in the way we normally think of it. But Sunday showed what it can be.
Yes, it's always going to be heavy on Mahomes-to-Kelce, but that's a good thing! And you can see in, for example, rookie Rashee Rice how much room there is for the young WR corps to keep growing. Think of it this way: Last season, in order to have success, the Chiefs needed contributions from some very young players on their defense. Early in the year, they weren't getting those. By the time they got to the playoffs and Super Bowl, their young guys on the back end were making big plays.
The Chiefs are 6-1, comfortably in front of the AFC West pack. Their coaching staff is skilled and proven in its ability to develop young players during a season, and there's no reason to think that, out of Rice, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross and even the newly returned Mecole Hardman Jr., some of these wideouts can't become significant contributors by the end of the season. Isiah Pacheco (another example of a player who developed throughout last season) leads the running game, Mahomes still knows how to find Kelce, and this might be the best defense the Chiefs have had since Mahomes became the starter.
Their offense is as good as any this side of Miami, and it has massive upside. A sixth straight AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium is a real possibility.
The NFL will outlaw the Eagles' tush push play this offseason
Let's talk first about what we know about this play. It lacks drama, unpredictability and artistry, and it is antithetical to anything the NFL wants its product to be. The name "tush push" is painfully awkward unless and until you compare it to its even worse name, "The Brotherly Shove." You could argue that no one should be allowed to run the play again until they come up with a name for it that doesn't make you cringe.
But additionally, the Eagles are fantastic at it, and no other team has figured out a way to use it reliably. Philadelphia used it to yawningly predictable effect again Sunday night against Miami, multiple times, and until someone figures out a way to stop it, we shouldn't expect the Eagles to stop running it with quarterback Jalen Hurts. They don't care that it's brutal to watch; it helps them score, and it helps them win.
Hurts scored on one in the second quarter to put Philly up two scores, and the Eagles would go on to win 31-17. In all, the Eagles were 4-for-4 with the tush push on Sunday night, and since the start of last season, they are 41-for-44 when using it to get a first down with 1 yard or less to go. For reference, the Bills and Bears are the next-closest teams ... with 11 successful conversions each over that span, per ESPN Stats and Information.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
At the NFL owners meetings last week in New York, this was discussed, though not in any formal way (meaning not in any major way in the meetings themselves but rather in lobby conversations and news conferences with those of us in the media). Rich McKay of the NFL's competition committee said they looked at the play last offseason, but with only one season's -- and one team's -- worth of data, they couldn't come up with any compelling reason to outlaw it. Next offseason, McKay said, he expects they'll discuss it again, and having two years' worth of data and multiple teams trying to use it will help inform any decisions that might get made.
My feeling, after talking to several owners about it, is that it's unlikely to be outlawed unless they have significant data showing the play comes with an elevated injury risk. (And at this point, I don't think they do.) It takes 24 of the 32 team owners to vote to change a rule, and the overwhelming sense I get as of now is that there isn't much appetite for a rule change that targets only one team.
I think this thing is here to stay. Again, until someone figures out how to stop it.