Man, Week 17 isn't being very nice to some of our recent overreactions.
We thought the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were cooked. They just became NFC South champions.
We thought the Philadelphia Eagles would be fine without Jalen Hurts, but they lost their second game in a row Sunday and will go into Week 18 still needing to win to secure the division title and No. 1 seed.
We thought the New York Giants were leaking oil down the stretch, but they took care of their Week 17 business and qualified for the playoffs for the first time since Odell Beckham Jr. & Co. took the infamous boat picture in 2016.
We thought the Miami Dolphins were in another season-ending free fall and ... well, they are. So it looks like we may have gotten that one right.
Shooting percentage notwithstanding, Overreactions will not be deterred. We will exercise our right to overreact to stuff that happened in Week 17, and we'll be here to own it, no matter how it turns out. Let's light this candle.
The Cowboys are going to steal the NFC East, and maybe the No. 1 seed in the NFC
The Cowboys opened the week with a Thursday night victory over a Tennessee Titans team that, based on its inactives list, was literally not trying as hard as it could have to win the game. Dak Prescott threw two more interceptions, and the Cowboys let a Joshua Dobbs-led Titans team hang around longer than they should have. But they did win the game, which is more than the Gardner Minshew-led Eagles were able to do Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.
And now, with one game to go, Dallas sits just one game behind Philly in the division standings. If the Cowboys beat the woebegone Washington Commanders next week and the Eagles lose to the playoff-bound Giants, Dallas will win the NFC East on the division-record tiebreaker. Not only that, but depending on what happens with the Minnesota Vikings and the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas still could end up with the top seed in the conference and a first-round bye.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It's certainly not a sure thing. We still don't know whether the Eagles will have Jalen Hurts back from his shoulder injury next week. The Giants could be resting their starters ahead of their playoff game the following week, since they're locked into the No. 6 seed anyway and can't help or hurt their own chances no matter what happens in Week 18.
Even if the Cowboys can knock off the Commanders, the Eagles may be in position to roll to a division title with a Week 18 win over a division rival that may not be trying. But man ... if Hurts can't make it back for next week, or if he's playing at less than full strength, things could get really interesting in the NFC East. Don't put it past Dallas to sneak in and become the division's first repeat champion since 2003-04.
Brian Daboll has locked up the Coach of the Year Award
If you say your preseason predictions had the Giants winning nine (or possibly 10!) games this year, your pants are on fire. Daboll got the Giants out to a 7-2 start playing ultra close games every week, weathered a four-game winless streak and has rebounded with two wins in the past three weeks to lock up a playoff spot in his first year as a head coach.
He helped shepherd Daniel Jones through the best year of his career so far in spite of a stunning dearth of help from the wide receiver position. He got Saquon Barkley through the season healthy. He took a team that hadn't had reason to believe in itself for a half-decade and got it to do so right away.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Oh, there are other candidates, sure. Philadelphia's Nick Sirianni is one in Daboll's own division. There's Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota. San Francisco's Kyle Shanahan has won with three different quarterbacks this season. Andy Reid hasn't missed a beat post-Tyreek Hill. And more.
But historically, across all sports, this has been an award that's given to the coach who the voters feel has accomplished the most with the least. And if you size up all of the teams that have locked up playoff spots, it's hard to find a roster you'd objectively rank behind the one Daboll is coaching. A winning record and a playoff spot with the 2022 Giants, for me, is a slam-dunk Coach of the Year case.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are good enough to make trouble for someone in the AFC playoffs
The Jaguars started the season 2-6, and they were 4-8 with five games to go. But they've won their past four to improve to 8-8, and a home win over the Titans next week would clinch the AFC South title and a home playoff game for Jacksonville.
They have beaten the Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys, all of which are playoff teams, and they beat the Titans to start their current streak. They were competitive against the Eagles and sort of competitive against the Kansas City Chiefs. Trevor Lawrence is playing up to his draft status, and first-year coach Doug Pederson is certainly someone who knows about playoff success.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Full respect to what Pederson, Lawrence and the Jags are doing. But they aren't even in yet, first of all. A rested Derrick Henry could make all of this moot next weekend. If the Jaguars do get in, their first-round game would likely be against the Ravens, Chargers or Cincinnati Bengals. Win that and they'd probably have to go to Buffalo or Kansas City in the second round.
The Jaguars are feisty, but they're at best a 9-8 team taking advantage of a pitifully weak division that has outscored its opponents by an average of three points per game. I think it's fair to be excited about the 2023 Jaguars, based on what we've seen this year. I don't think the big dogs in the AFC playoff field should be overly worried about having to play them in January.
The Vikings will lose in the first round of the playoffs
The Vikings are 12-4 and locked up the NFC North title a while ago. They are 11-0 in one-score games, which analytics would tell you is fluky and likely to regress to the mean. But that also speaks on some level to their toughness and resilience -- two things that should help them in the postseason.
If the season ended right now, they'd play a first-round home game against the Giants, who they beat 27-24 last week. But they lost to the Packers 41-17 Sunday in a game that could have eliminated their rival, and I just don't understand how you don't get up for that game.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Yes, they beat the Packers in Week 1. But that was a very long time ago. In their losses to the Eagles, Cowboys and Packers -- teams they're almost certainly going to have to beat in order to make any real noise in the playoffs -- they have been outscored 105-27. That's an average of 35-9. They eked out a Week 16 victory over their most likely first-round opponent. The comeback against the Colts was legendary. And again, it speaks to something about this team that it should be proud of and should help it if it gets into a close playoff game.
But I just feel like, the record aside, this is a team that isn't on the same level as the other top NFC playoff teams. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe they'll prove me wrong. That'd be fine. I like being surprised. But I can't come out of Sunday thinking this is a real Super Bowl contender. Again, how do you show up for a game like this, knowing what it means to the Packers, knowing you can knock them out of the playoffs, and just fall flat?
The Packers are going to be a dangerous team in the NFC playoffs
Green Bay has rescued its season with a well-timed four-game winning streak and has gotten all the help it has needed over the past couple of weeks. The Packers' victory over the Vikings, coupled with the Commanders' loss to the Cleveland Browns, set up a scenario in which all the Packers have to do to make the playoffs is to beat the Detroit Lions at home next week.
It's an incredible turnaround for a team that most of us left for dead a month or so ago. And if they do get into the playoffs, they'll be bringing Aaron Rodgers to a tournament whose other quarterbacks are going to be Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins, Jones, either Hurts or Minshew and a dude who used to be Tom Brady. Some people will assert that the Packers have the best quarterback in the field, and some people will be making a good point.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
I'm still not seeing it. I get the reasoning behind the assertion, but this still looks like a more flawed team than Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco. The only impressive victory in their current streak was Sunday's win over the Vikings, and you can scroll back up if you're interested in reminding yourself what I think about the Vikings. I think it's fair to have hope for next year in Green Bay if you're a Packers fan, or even if you're Rodgers deciding whether to come back. And oh yeah, you're going to hear a lot about how they got hot and healthy at the tail end of the 2010 season and went on to win Rodgers' only Super Bowl title.
But I think the top three teams in the NFC (assuming Hurts is back in time) are head and shoulders better than the Packers are, and I don't see them beating more than one of them. It's a fun story, and for content purposes I'm very pleased that they've lasted this long. But I don't think we should be tricked into thinking they're some kind of threat.