INDIANAPOLIS -- The Philadelphia Eagles spent the entire week refusing to overreact. They suffered their first loss of the season Monday night, then got right back to work telling themselves it was just one bad game, that everybody has them, and there was no reason to panic.
Then they rolled into Indianapolis on Sunday and almost let another one get away.
The Eagles sleepwalked through the first three quarters against the Colts, trailed 13-3 entering the fourth and didn't hold a lead until quarterback Jalen Hurts scampered into the end zone with 1 minute, 20 seconds left on the clock. They escaped Indy with a 17-16 victory and a sense that they had gotten away with something.
"Lots to clean up, for sure," center Jason Kelce said. "We played a bad game on offense."
Of course, the Eagles are 9-1. Just about every team in the league wishes they had the Eagles' problems. If you can win the games in which you don't play your best, that's just extra. It only sets you up that much better for everything from playoff seeding to handling adversity. One of the many people who were here from Philadelphia asked me after the game, "Did the Eagles deserve that win?" and I said, "Who cares? They got it!" And I stand by it.
That said, just because the Eagles won't overreact to a couple of bad games doesn't mean we can't, right? Let's lead the Week 11 overreactions column with an escape by the league's top team.
The Eagles' offense is in trouble without Dallas Goedert
Goedert, the Eagles' starting tight end, was injured in Monday night's loss to the Washington Commanders and is now on injured reserve, which means he missed Sunday's game and will miss at least three more. Without him, Philadelphia stalled several times on offense Sunday for several reasons, including multiple penalties by the tight ends who are working to replace him. Philly didn't do much right on offense all day until they got to the fourth quarter and appeared to tell Hurts, "You know what? You just take over and win this thing for us, OK?" Which he did.
The Eagles are set up well in their division, but they can't afford to take their foot off the gas. Washington appears to be coming alive. The New York Giants probably have a drop-off coming, but they are 7-3. The Dallas Cowboys look as if they're going to push the Eagles all year. Philly has to keep winning, and most weeks, that's going to mean playing a lot better on offense than they did Sunday.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
First of all, the Colts' defense has been tough on everybody this year. There's no shame in scoring just 17 against Indianapolis, especially on the road in a short week. Philly was coming off a tough division loss, playing a tough defensive opponent and really shouldn't feel worried just because they struggled to score. The turnovers (two more Sunday, six total in their past two games) and the penalties should worry them a bit, but they haven't been a team that's beaten themselves all year, so it's easy to chalk this up to a blip.
Goedert will be back at some point, and in the meantime, the Eagles have enough good players on offense that they should be able to figure it out without him. They play the Green Bay Packers next Sunday night. All you have to do against them is run the ball. The Eagles will be fine. Oh, and by the way, they were a lot better on defense Sunday than they were last week. So, consider that, too.
Taylor Heinicke is good enough to take the Commanders to the playoffs
The Commanders followed up their Monday night victory over the previously unbeaten Eagles with a ho-hum 23-10 victory over the woeful Houston Texans. Houston had just 5 total yards of offense in the first half, and Washington held a comfy 20-0 halftime lead. Heinicke was an unspectacular 15-of-27 for 191 yards, but he didn't turn the ball over and he operated the offense competently while the defense dominated.
Washington has won five of its past six games (losing only that zany game to the Minnesota Vikings) after starting the season 1-4, and the turnaround coincides with Week 1 starter Carson Wentz getting injured and Heinicke taking over. The team seems to have responded to him in a positive way. And while they're still in last place in the NFC East, the Commanders' 6-5 record would be good enough for first place in the NFC South and has them right on the fringes of the wild-card race.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Seven teams now make the playoffs in each conference, and the NFC does appear to be the weaker of the two conferences this year. Those No. 6 and 7 spots are kind of up for grabs, especially the 7, which currently belongs to the 5-4 San Francisco 49ers, who play on Monday night. Washington is right there, and its schedule is another one of those relatively soft NFC East ones.
The Commanders play the Atlanta Falcons next week (more on them in a second), then oddly have consecutive games against the Giants wrapped around their bye week. After that, they get a visit to San Francisco for what could have massive wild-card implications, then finish with home games against the Cleveland Browns and Cowboys. They could be getting Chase Young back to boost their defense here in the next week or so. Look, you might think the Commanders are playing over their heads, and they might be. But the math says they're in this thing, and Heinicke brings just enough YOLO factor to this surprise stretch of his career that you can't rule him out.
The Falcons will overtake the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and win the NFC South
The Falcons just won't go away, will they? They beat the Chicago Bears 27-24 on Sunday thanks to an efficient performance by QB Marcus Mariota, an effective run game, a defense that did just enough to keep Justin Fields from blowing up the game and a kicker who can hit reliably from 53 yards.
They lost the turnover battle, they lost time of possession by a lot and they were actually outgained by Chicago in this game 288 yards to 280. I do not know how the Falcons win games, but they are 5-6 and just a half-game behind first-place Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
I'm not saying this will happen, but it's absolutely not an overreaction to say it can happen. We kind of expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to come roaring out of their bye week and put this division away, but what if they don't?
Arthur Smith's Falcons don't seem to do much well. Only once this year have they won two games in a row. They have no business being here, and the fact that they're in this discussion is a testament to Smith's leadership and to how disappointing the Bucs have been. If the Bucs don't get their act together, these Falcons are as opportunistic as their mascots, ready to swoop in and steal a playoff spot away from the GOAT. Tampa Bay needs to be careful, or that Week 18 home game against the Falcons could be a lot more important than the Bucs want it to be.
The Vikings aren't as good as their record
Look. Everybody can have a bad day. That's allowed. But when you're 8-1 playing at home and you lose 40-3? That's eye-opening. That's the kind of result that makes people say things like, "See??? I told you the Vikings weren't any good!" Minnesota got completely destroyed Sunday by the Cowboys in their own building, ending a seven-game winning streak in which each win came by one score or fewer.
The Vikings are 8-2 despite having actually allowed more points this year than they've scored, which has to be some kind of a record. You take a beating like that in your own stadium against a playoff contender in your own conference, you're going to hear it from all of the corners where people were still doubting you. Simple as that.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Vikings might not be as good as their seven-game winning streak made them look, but it's hard to see how they're as bad as Sunday made them look. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the league. I know, I know, we're a week removed from them blowing a fourth-quarter lead and losing to Green Bay, but this is the same point I'm making. Everybody has bad days. Minnesota's was just a lot worse than most. The Vikings are in fine shape in the NFC North and should cruise to a division title, and just because they were overdue for a loss doesn't make any of that untrue.
I think the issue here is that people aren't going to buy the Vikings until they see quarterback Kirk Cousins deliver a few times in the same postseason, and that's fair. But there's nothing Minnesota can do about that until January. We'll see how it bounces back from one of the worst pastings any contender has taken all year, but, honestly, we aren't going to be able to draw any conclusions about the Vikings until they play some playoff games. Which they will.
The Cincinnati Bengals are still the AFC's most dangerous team
The defending AFC champions avenged their lousy Week 1 loss to the Steelers with a 37-30 victory in Pittsburgh. It wasn't easy -- nothing with the Bengals is this year -- but even with top running back Joe Mixon out of the game for large stretches and star wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase still out with a hip injury, Joe Burrow, Trey Hendrickson, Tee Higgins and the Bengals found a way.
The Bengals improved their record to 6-4 -- still just one game behind the Baltimore Ravens for first place in the AFC North and, at the time their game ended, good enough to hold the No. 7 spot in the projected AFC playoff field, pending the result of Sunday night's Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs game.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
They still have Burrow. They still have the memory of last January/February. They still have Chase coming back at some point soon. Cincinnati still has an uphill climb as a result of heartbreaking early-season losses to Pittsburgh, Dallas and Baltimore, but they have the ability and the self-belief to do the climbing. They might not catch the Ravens in the division. They might not have enough to go to Kansas City and win in the playoffs again this season. But no one's going to be comfortable having the Bengals in contention until someone knocks them out.
And Sunday's victory over an admittedly substandard Pittsburgh team showed that. You can laugh all you want about the Steelers, but the history between these two teams is real and it's painful for Cincinnati. It doesn't matter how tough it might be -- beating the Steelers tells you things are good right now with the Bengals.