Every year, just before the season, I write a column about how every NFL team is capable of winning the Super Bowl. We spend so much time talking about how five or six favorites are going to win the championship when history tells us each season is more wide open than it seems. Usually, I say that ... and the Super Bowl ends up as Tom Brady facing a team with a young superstar quarterback.
Last year, though, was the quintessential example of how we can't write anybody off before the season begins. According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the Bengals had the league's fourth-longest odds of advancing to the Super Bowl. Quarterback Joe Burrow was coming off a serious left knee injury, while wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase had labored through a difficult camp. Even if you were optimistic about the team's future, the Bengals were stuck in a division with the Browns, Ravens and Steelers, each of whom had won 11 games and made the playoffs in 2020.
It would have been absolutely impossible to project Cincinnati to win the AFC North, let alone advance out of the AFC to the Super Bowl. And yet, that is exactly what happened. Take a look at what was in this space last season:
"If Burrow is back and close to the guy we saw at LSU in 2019, few quarterbacks in the league are going to have a more promising trio of wideouts than Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and rookie top-five pick Ja'Marr Chase.
"I'm less optimistic about the defense, although 2020 free agent additions Trae Waynes and DJ Reader should make more of an impact after playing a combined five games for the Bengals last season. The path to a division title would be murky and probably require some disappointing performances from the other quarterbacks in the AFC North, but Cincinnati has significant upside in a way that the teams ranked below it do not."
Waynes didn't do much in his final season with the team, but otherwise, this is what happened. Burrow thrived with his devastating trio of receivers. The other quarterbacks in the AFC North were either injured or playing through injuries. When everything broke right for the Bengals, they had the upside and the talent to emerge quicker than even their fans would have expected.
Let's continue this series and run through my look at how each of the league's 32 teams could win the Super Bowl in 2022. I'll try to provide a plausible scenario where each team could take home a championship, which usually involves some combination of playing well and getting help from their opposition. Just as Cincinnati benefited from quarterback issues in the AFC North, the Rams were happy to see a disappointing season from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.
I'll rank them by the offseason projections from ESPN's FPI, which estimated each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl (Note: FPI's projections have been updated since publication). Let's begin with the league's worst teams. You'll see plenty of examples of how these teams at the bottom could be this year's Bengals, because it'll take something spectacular for them to make it to Arizona in February:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA
SF | TB | TEN | WSH
32. Chicago Bears
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 0.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 12.0%
Kicking off a painful rebuild after coach Matt Nagy and general manager Ryan Pace were fired, the Bears appear to be using 2022 as a season to reset their books and start over. They have more than $62 million in dead money on their cap this year, the third-largest amount in the league behind the Falcons and Texans, both of whom traded away their franchise quarterbacks. With defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi failing his physical, new GM Ryan Poles didn't give a single incoming free agent as much as $7 million in guarantees. Chicago could still have as many as 10 new starters on the field in Week 1.
Of course, unlike most teams beginning their rebuilds, the Bears have a playmaker capable of accelerating their contention in second-year quarterback Justin Fields. He wasn't good as a rookie, but with hints in preseason that new offensive coordinator Luke Betsy will install a movement and bootleg-heavy scheme for his young starter, he should be in a better position to succeed in 2022.
The Bears aren't making the Super Bowl. But even here, in the most unlikely of scenarios, it's not impossible to carve out their path. The Packers have been dominant in the NFC North under coach Matt LaFleur, but they can't defy their point differential forever. Aaron Rodgers is 38. The Vikings are transitioning to a new regime and are overturning their roster. The Lions project to be better without being a playoff contender. In a universe in which Rodgers declines dramatically or gets injured, the North could be wide open. Could a Chicago team with a solid defense and a surprisingly effective offense contend?
31. Houston Texans
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 0.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 15.4%
In the hellscape of the AFC, the Texans seem to lack the ceiling needed to compete with teams likely to have superstar quarterback play. That's probably true. I would point out, however, that Davis Mills ranked 24th in the league in adjusted net yards per attempt last season. The guy who was one spot ahead of him was Ryan Tannehill, whose Titans were the top seed in the AFC. Tennessee wasn't able to sustain its success into a postseason run, but the easiest path to winning a Super Bowl includes a first-round bye.
The Titans ran hot last season, which is one of the reasons they're projected to decline (again) in 2022. If they do take a step backward, the South would suddenly be wide open. Quarterback Matt Ryan might not have much left in the tank in Indy, which lost influential defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus and replaced him with Gus Bradley. The Jaguars are recovering from the Urban Meyer era.
Houston general manager Nick Caserio finally was able to enjoy a full complement of draft picks in April, and Mills should have solid protection from a Laremy Tunsil-led line in his second season. If Mills builds on an impressive end to 2021, the Texans could come out of their rebuild much earlier than expected.
30. New York Jets
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 0.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 10.5%
The season isn't off to a great start for the Jets, who lost quarterback Zach Wilson to a right knee injury during the preseason. Wilson is expected to return sometime in September, and when he does make it back on the field, he won't lack for help. The No. 2 pick in last year's draft will be surrounded by four first- or second-round picks and six free-agent additions signed by general manager Joe Douglas over the past two offseasons. It could take time for that group to coalesce, but if everything clicks, the Jets have the firepower to be one of the league's best offenses. Remember how quickly things came together for the Bengals in 2021?
Coach Robert Saleh's defense isn't quite as stocked, but the Jets do get back leading edge rusher Carl Lawson from a torn Achilles and used Round 1 picks on cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive end Jermaine Johnson. The biggest issue standing in their way might be the competition, as FPI projects the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots to go a combined 28-23 this season. New York has the lowest playoff odds in all of football, so it will probably need one or two of those teams to disappoint to make it into the postseason.
29. Atlanta Falcons
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 0.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 19.2%
Contrast the Jets' plight to that of the Falcons, who have similar Super Bowl odds but are nearly twice as likely to make it to the postseason. NFC teams get an extra home game this season, and Atlanta play in what appears to be a less imposing division. If Tom Brady finally slips up after what has been a curious offseason, the South would suddenly be wide open. New Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota, who posted a winning record in each of his three full seasons as a starter in Tennessee, might be the second-best starting signal-caller in the division.
It's more likely that the Falcons, who have nearly $65 million in dead money on their 2022 cap, turn to rookie Desmond Ridder at some point during what is likely to be a rebuilding year. If Mariota gets off to a hot start against the Saints, Rams, Seahawks and Browns, though, coach Arthur Smith might choose to stick with what's working and try to sneak into the postseason.
The Falcons finished last season 30th in DVOA. It might seem like they're light years from a Super Bowl appearance, but we would have said the same thing about the team that finished 30th in DVOA the prior season: Cincinnati.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 0.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 18.2%
How willing are you to believe coach Urban Meyer dragged down Trevor Lawrence & Co. last season? The Jaguars were a mess both on and off the field, with Meyer shouldering a significant amount of blame before his departure. We saw only brief flashes from Jacksonville, which somehow beat the Bills in Week 9 and blew out the Colts in a win-and-in game for Indianapolis to finish the season.
Preternatural quarterback prospects sometimes take a season to develop before finding their level, with Peyton Manning as a prominent example. With Doug Pederson in charge and guard Brandon Scherff, wideout Christian Kirk and running back Travis Etienne joining him, Lawrence should have a much better supporting cast than ever before. If he blossoms into a superstar, it'll make everyone and everything look a lot better in Jacksonville.
Remember what happened the last time Pederson had a highly drafted quarterback in his second season? The then-Eagles coach coaxed an MVP-caliber season out of Carson Wentz and then won the Super Bowl with Wentz's backup, Nick Foles.
27. Pittsburgh Steelers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 1.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 19.9%
It's been a long time since the Steelers' chances of winning a Super Bowl before the season starts were quite this low. The last time they seemed this far away from glory was 2004, when Bill Cowher's team was coming off a 6-10 season and ranked 20th in preseason Super Bowl odds in Vegas. They started the season with Tommy Maddox as their quarterback before quickly turning to first-round pick Ben Roethlisberger, who went 13-0 in his debut season. The Steelers went 15-1 before falling to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game.
It's not realistic to ask quarterback Kenny Pickett to be similarly productive as a rookie, but the Steelers could certainly be a playoff team. Roethlisberger was taking over from a replacement-level player in Maddox, and likewise, the duo of Pickett and Mitch Trubisky could be an upgrade on the physically compromised version of Roethlisberger we saw in 2021. Pittsburgh's offensive line is a concern, but I ranked its playmakers 12th in the league this offseason, and that was before rookie George Pickens physically dominated opposing defensive backs this preseason.
Realistically, the clearest path for the Steelers to win would be through a dominant defense. T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward were an incredible one-two punch along the D-line a year ago, but inconsistent play at linebacker and in the secondary dropped Mike Tomlin's team from first in defensive DVOA in 2020 to 14th.
We're three years removed from a 2019 season in which the Steelers forced a league-high 38 takeaways and nearly carried quarterback Mason Rudolph to the postseason. It would take that sort of defensive dominance to get them back among the Super Bowl contenders in 2022.
26. Detroit Lions
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 1.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 29.4%
Just about everybody thinks the Lions will improve after a frustrating 2021 campaign, myself included. It's fair to wonder whether they really have a Super Bowl-caliber ceiling, which is reflected in their FPI odds; they have significantly higher playoff odds than the teams below them in these rankings, although their chances of winning a championship aren't much different than the Steelers or Jaguars.
I'm not too concerned about the offense, which has a veteran quarterback in Jared Goff, an underrated offensive line and a young, emerging set of playmakers at running back and receiver. The defense is the bigger concern, given that Detroit finished 29th in DVOA a year ago. In Aaron Glenn's second season as coordinator, the hope would have to be that defensive end Romeo Okwara and cornerback Jeff Okudah return from injury and exceed expectations. (Okwara will start the year on injured reserve after tearing his Achilles.)
Like the Bears, the Lions are hoping the Packers finally decline, which would open up the NFC North for business.
25. Carolina Panthers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 1.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 26.2%
Coach Matt Rhule's Panthers teams have disappointed over his first two seasons, but that was with Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, Sam Darnold and Cam Newton at quarterback. Rhule is the one who chose those quarterbacks, so he's not exactly blameless in the whole thing, but Baker Mayfield has the most upside on paper of any of the passer he has employed so far in Carolina. The last time we saw a healthy Mayfield was 2020, when he finished the season with the league's 10th-best QBR.
If Mayfield can hold up his end of the bargain, the Panthers have a good enough defense to instantly compete in the NFC South. They ranked fourth in the league in EPA allowed per snap on defense through their Week 12 bye. With cornerback Jaycee Horn returning after missing most of his rookie season with a broken foot, they should be better in the secondary than they were in 2021.
Rhule looks like he might not be cut out for life as an NFL head coach after starting his career 10-23, but we could have said the same thing about the Bengals' Zac Taylor, who was 6-25-1 in his first two seasons in Cincinnati. You know what happened in Year 3.
24. Seattle Seahawks
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 1.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 29.2%
Let's leave aside quarterback Russell Wilson's departure and talk about the Seahawks as constructed. Despite finishing 7-10 a year ago, they outscored their opposition by 29 points and ranked ninth in DVOA. On a play-by-play basis, their closest comparables were the Cardinals and Packers. Based on their 7-10 record, though, they were aligned with the Commanders and Falcons. The latter was likely enough to lead to the Wilson trade, which reset the franchise around new starter Geno Smith.
Smith is decidedly not his predecessor, but he posted a 103 passer rating in three starts last season and has plenty of playmakers around him on offense. Rookie first-round pick Charles Cross was promising at left tackle during the preseason, and if the Seahawks commit to running the ball more often, Rashaad Penny -- a first-rounder in 2018 -- averaged 6.3 yards per carry a year ago. Their ceiling isn't as high with Wilson in Denver, but they could conceivably field a competent offense.
The question, then, is whether the changes made by coach Pete Carroll to revitalize an antiquated defense will push the Seahawks back up the charts. Veterans Carlos Dunlap, D.J. Reed and Bobby Wagner left during the offseason, but they get back star safety Jamal Adams after an injury-impacted 2021 campaign.
In what is expected to be an extremely difficult NFC West, the Seahawks probably don't have enough on either side of the ball to possess a Super Bowl ceiling, but if Smith is good and some of the younger players on defense take a step forward, they might be closer to playoff contention than it seems.
23. New York Giants
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 1.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 33.1%
The Giants might be the NFC equivalent of the Jaguars, where the biggest hope for improvement resides with improved coaching. There are more players who took a step backward after arriving in New York with former coach Joe Judge than there are players who improved under his watch. The jury is still out on new coach Brian Daboll, but his track record of directly improving Josh Allen and many others in Buffalo's offense over the past three seasons hints at better times for Daniel Jones, who enters the final year of his contract. The passer has everything to play for given his contract status, and with five first- or second-round picks in the lineup, he has enough help to do his job.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants hired Don "Wink" Martindale, who coordinated a top-three scoring defense in each of his first three seasons with the Ravens, although a failure to adapt amid an injury crisis in the secondary a year ago led to his departure. New York doesn't exactly have Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters at corner, but with defensive linemen Kayvon Thibodeaux, Azeez Ojulari and Leonard Williams, it has players who should be capable of getting after the quarterback.
Much of the attention has been focused on Jones this spring, but if the Giants make a dramatic turnaround and playoff run, it's more likely to be driven by an unexpectedly impactful defense.
22. Tennessee Titans
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 2.0%
Chance to make the playoffs: 42.4%
Titans fans understandably won't be happy to find FPI placing their favorite team well outside of the Super Bowl favorites, given that Tennessee was the top seed in the AFC a year ago. For what it's worth, FPI was far more optimistic about the Titans heading into 2021, where they ranked 10th in playoff odds and 12th in Super Bowl chances. If you don't understand why they fell from 12th in Super Bowl odds to 22nd after a season in which they were one of the league's best teams, I would encourage you to read what I wrote about them last month.
I was pessimistic about the Titans last season, and until a postseason upset by the Bengals, they exceeded my expectations. Losing edge rusher Harold Landry to a torn ACL hurts, but it's not difficult to imagine a scenario in which Tennessee competes for a Super Bowl. Among the things that will need to happen: running back Derrick Henry returns to form after a frustrating 2021; rookie wideout Treylon Burks steps in for the departed A.J. Brown, and 2021 free agent addition Bud Dupree steps up in Landry's absence.
The Titans seem to have one or two young players level up each season; this year, it could be cornerback Caleb Farley and linebacker David Long.
21. Miami Dolphins
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 2.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 34.9%
I trust by now you've heard about how this is a big year for Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins loaded up with offensive firepower for their third-year quarterback, who added a No. 1 receiver (Tyreek Hill) and star left tackle (Terron Armstead) this spring. New coach Mike McDaniel has to make all the pieces work, but the 39-year-old comes over from San Francisco with an excellent reputation as an offensive mind, and Tagovailoa was once considered a can't-miss quarterback prospect. If Tagovailoa takes a Josh Allen-sized leap in Year 3, the Dolphins could field a top-five offense.
The biggest issue for Miami might be Allen and the Bills, as it projects to face the league's second-toughest schedule, per Football Outsiders. The Dolphins fired defensive-minded head coach Brian Flores, but coordinator Josh Boyer and one of the league's deepest secondaries return to battle in the AFC East.
With the Patriots seemingly battling Bill Belichick's curious choice in offensive coaches, the Dolphins might be the second-best team in the East. If the Bills are waylaid by injuries or inconsistency, Miami would be the best-positioned team to pounce.
20. San Francisco 49ers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 2.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 38.6%
The 49ers might feel hard done by, as they came within a drive of advancing to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. Of course, the flip side is also true, as it took a fourth-quarter comeback on their final drive of the regular season and a follow-up drive in overtime to push San Francisco over the Rams in Week 18 and into the postseason as a wild-card team. DVOA ranked the Niners as the sixth-best team, so they would have been unlucky to miss the postseason, but the Rams were one first down away from eliminating their divisional rivals before the playoffs even began.
The biggest factor impacting San Francisco's ceiling and floor is the play of new quarterback Trey Lance. The shocking decision to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo on a reduced deal helps if Lance struggles -- and we know the 49ers can make it to the Super Bowl with Garoppolo under center -- but Lance is the one who possesses a truly spectacular ceiling as a runner and deep passer.
There are questions about the offensive line and secondary -- and most of the key contributors on this roster have messy injury histories -- but there's a universe in which Lance plays like an MVP and the 49ers win 15 games.
19. Washington Commanders
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 2.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 37.0%
We know Carson Wentz can put together a spectacular season. Admittedly, it came in 2017, and he ranks 20th in QBR over the ensuing four seasons. The former Eagles and Colts starter should be an upgrade on years of dismal quarterback play in Washington, though. The Commanders rank dead last in QBR over that same stretch, so even a slightly above-average season by Wentz's standards would feel like a luxury.
A Commanders turnaround would more realistically be fueled by the defense, which ranked third in the league in DVOA in 2020 before dropping all the way to 27th a year ago. Injuries to pass-rusher Chase Young, disappointing secondary play and a spectacularly bad performance on third downs during the first half of the year were enough to sink them.
Young will start the season on the PUP list and miss the first four games, but if the Commanders could somehow combine the defense from 2020 with the offense they project to have in 2022, they would comfortably be a playoff-caliber team in the NFC. Facing the league's second-worst slate of opposing teams, per Football Outsiders, also would help.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 2.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 45.6%
The Bengals entered last season with a 0.1% chance of winning Super Bowl LVI. Their chances eventually improved all the way to 78.5% by the fourth quarter of the game itself before falling back to zero after being stopped on fourth down. Joe Burrow & Co. greatly exceeded expectations, but FPI still pegs their Super Bowl chances in 2022 as slightly below league average.
I'm more optimistic about the Bengals' chances, in part because their shift to one of the league's most pass-happy attacks toward the end of the season was spurred by Burrow further recovering from his serious left knee injury. They went 6-1 with Burrow at quarterback from Week 15 on while posting the league's third-highest pass rate in neutral situations. Zac Taylor's team won't turn the ball over twice in seven games like it did over that stretch, but I would expect Cincinnati to be one of the league's best offenses.
Even if the Bengals get there, though, there are reasonable concerns about the schedule after they faced what was the league's third-easiest slate according to Football Outsiders a year ago. They get a first-place schedule this season, and after seeing all three of their divisional rivals have their quarterbacks compromised by injuries, the AFC North should be healthier this time around.
The Bengals aren't going anywhere in terms of competitiveness -- we just saw what their upside case looks like -- but their path is tougher this time around.
17. Philadelphia Eagles
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.1%
Chance to make the playoffs: 52.4%
The first team on this list to project as favorites to make it to the postseason, the Eagles enter the season as one of the trendier long shot Super Bowl selections on the market. It's not difficult to understand, as the Eagles aced this offseason, return a roster that won six of its seven final meaningful games during the regular season and can dream on a third-year breakout for quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Again, though, I wonder whether Philadelphia's ceiling might be more defined by the defense. The Eagles ranked 25th in the league in defensive DVOA a year ago before adding five new regulars in defensive backs James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson and front-seven players Haason Reddick, Kyzir White and first-round pick Jordan Davis.
Second-year coordinator Jonathan Gannon is blessed with a deep defensive line and two excellent cover corners. If he can improve what's in the middle at linebacker and safety, the Eagles could be one of the best teams in the league.
16. New Orleans Saints
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 48.5%
We can argue whether the Saints should take a step backward and eat their salary-cap vegetables, but after tens of millions in restructures and a move up for another first-round pick, general manager Mickey Loomis & Co. are prioritizing their 2022 roster over the future. You can understand why, as they went 9-3 with their top two quarterbacks a year ago, only to miss out on the playoffs by virtue of losing all five games with fill-ins Trevor Siemian and Ian Book.
The Saints lost left tackle Terron Armstead and safety Marcus Williams in free agency and coach Sean Payton to retirement, but they should be much stronger at wide receiver after drafting Chris Olave in Round 1 and getting Michael Thomas back from injury. Rookie offensive lineman Trevor Penning, another first-round pick, is out indefinitely, but if James Hurst can fill in at left tackle yet again -- and the veteran defense sustains its top-three performance from the past two seasons -- the Saints should be good enough to push the Bucs in the NFC South.
Their ceiling, at least in terms of competing for a top seed in the conference, might depend on what Tom Brady has to offer at age 45.
15. Cleveland Browns
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 56.7%
I'm not sure FPI has a lot of prior comparables in evaluating Cleveland's situation, given that we know quarterback Deshaun Watson -- who was accused by more than two dozen women of sexual misconduct during massage sessions -- is out for exactly 11 games. It's simple to imagine a scenario in which the Browns hold on for three months before getting hot after Watson returns, but that's hardly a guarantee. For one, he likely will take some time to get comfortable in a new offense after entering the lineup midseason. In addition, the last time we saw Watson, he was having a spectacular season for a Texans team that went 4-12. He doesn't singlehandedly guarantee success.
With fill-in signal-caller Jacoby Brissett, the Browns likely will play a more traditional style and rely on their defense and running game. They improved from 25th to 11th in defensive DVOA a year ago and will need to rise even further to challenge for the AFC North title. Cleveland has stars on that side of the ball in pass-rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward, but fellow high draft picks, including cornerback Greedy Williams, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and safety Grant Delpit, will need to hit new heights for the Browns to dominate on defense.
14. Minnesota Vikings
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 54.4%
I'm not sure most people would put Minnesota's Super Bowl chances ahead of the Eagles or 49ers, but advanced metrics are optimistic about the Vikings. FPI pegs them as favorites to make the postseason, while the new Football Outsiders Almanac 2022 projects them for 9.5 wins and a 10% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. Most measurements suggest the Vikings were a little better than their record a year ago, but I'll admit I'm a little surprised by just how aggressively these measures project a leap back into the postseason for Minnesota.
The most logical path for the Vikings would be an explosive performance on offense, where new coach Kevin O'Connell is expected to lean into the strength of his team. While former coach Mike Zimmer battled his offensive coordinators when they attempted to throw the ball, O'Connell is expected to deliver a more wide-open attack, with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson playing the role of Cooper Kupp.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins could approach 5,000 passing yards, but he needs the offensive line to hold up its end of the bargain, particularly second-year left tackle Christian Darrisaw.
13. New England Patriots
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 51.1%
FPI (perhaps blessedly) doesn't know about the coaching storylines in New England, where Bill Belichick seems to be turning over offensive playcalling to the duo of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. After a preseason in which reports out of Patriots camp compared the offense to something out of the Sam Darnold era in New York, there's not much optimism for quarterback Mac Jones taking a leap forward in Year 2. At the very least, it seems like the Patriots will take some time to grow comfortable on offense in 2022.
Belichick's defense finished fourth in DVOA and should carry the offense through the leaner parts of September and October, although New England let star corner J.C. Jackson leave in free agency and lost returning veteran Malcolm Butler to injured reserve. Patriots games probably won't be pretty, but if they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, their fans won't mind.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 46.1%
Owing to the competition in the AFC West, the Raiders rank 17th in playoff odds and 12th in Super Bowl probability. If they can advance past the league's toughest division and make it into the playoffs, they will have proven they're good enough to deserve serious consideration as a contender in the AFC. After dealing with a series of off-field disasters and one of the worst red zone defenses in recent league history a year ago, they might believe they deserve some better luck in 2022.
I'm not inclined to feel that way, but I do think the Raiders could field a spectacular offense if everything breaks right. Derek Carr has proven himself to be a top-10 quarterback over the past several seasons, and he'll have his best set of pass-catchers as a pro in Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. The defense will form a one-two punch of devastating pass-rushers in Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby, but new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will need to piece together a competent pass defense behind that duo.
The Raiders could be one of the most entertaining teams in football this season, and if the weak spots in their roster (offensive line and secondary) come together in short order, they could give the rest of the AFC West serious problems.
11. Baltimore Ravens
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 52.6%
Afflicted by the worst rash of injuries in recent league history, the Ravens held out for three months before collapsing after quarterback Lamar Jackson went down with a right ankle injury. They held a lead on the eventual world champs for 59 minutes in Week 17 with backup Tyler Huntley before going down 20-19 on an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown with 57 seconds to go. Thirteen of the Ravens' 22 starters from that game are either no longer on the roster or won't be starting here in Week 1.
After finishing 28th in defensive DVOA last season, it seems inevitable the Ravens will regress toward their own personal mean, having finished in the top 10 in each of their five prior seasons. The offense seems set to retreat toward a more run-heavy approach in neutral situations, a decision that bore fruit in 2019 and 2020. This team is only two years removed from a 14-2 season; their Super Bowl case looks much like that regular season, but with more success in January. If you think Jackson can't push the Ravens into a championship game, remember that Joe Flacco posted one of the best postseasons in league history during his contact year in 2012.
10. Indianapolis Colts
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 3.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 61.2%
As the ultimate slow-and-steady team, it might not seem like the Colts have the sort of upside needed to possess serious Super Bowl hopes with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Then again, it didn't seem like the Ravens had that sort of upside with Joe Flacco, and they won road games in Denver and New England on their way to a title in 2012. The Falcons were three years removed from their last playoff win in 2016 when Ryan won league MVP and came within a couple of first downs of a title.
The best way to win a Super Bowl is to get as many postseason cracks as possible, and in a relatively friendly division, any pessimism about the Titans is going to open the door for Frank Reich's Indianapolis team. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has to get more out of a unit that has yet to turn many draft picks into successes on the edge and at cornerback. Bradley will get a boost from veterans in cornerback Stephon Gilmore and edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, but the Colts desperately need breakouts from defensive end Kwity Paye and linebacker Bobby Okereke.
If the defense can keep things close, running back Jonathan Taylor should be able to take care of the rest.
9. Denver Broncos
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 4.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 55.5%
Russell Wilson has undoubtedly played out the scenario daily in which he wins the Super Bowl with his new team. Freed to throw the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, Wilson makes stars out of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, just as Peyton Manning elevated Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker after arriving in Denver in 2012. Wilson wins league MVP, follows it up with a Super Bowl run and gets announced as the Opening Day third baseman for the Rockies in 2023. All in a morning of visualization for Russ.
Like so many other teams, though, the headlines surrounding Denver's quarterback tell only part of the story. The defense looked great by traditional metrics a year ago, finishing third in points allowed, but it also faced the league's fewest drives and inherited its second-best average starting field position, leading to a finish of 20th in DVOA.
Wilson will excite the fans and drop rainbows on a weekly basis, but if the Broncos can live up to that scoring defense mark from a year ago while playing at a faster pace, that might be what truly unlocks their ceiling.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 4.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 53.9%
The story has remained the same over Kliff Kingsbury's three seasons in Arizona: the Cardinals can't finish. They are 16-8 over the first half of the past three season, only to fall 8-16-1 afterward. They looked unprepared and overwhelmed during a blowout loss to the Rams in the wild-card round. The same offense that has looked explosive in September and October frequently looks lethargic in December.
The post-Halloween fade has to go away. The Cardinals would obviously prefer to have a full season from wideout DeAndre Hopkins, but I wonder whether his six-game suspension might keep the him fresher heading into the dog days of the season. Kyler Murray, who either has been injured or played through injuries each of the past two years, needs to sustain his peak level of play over an entire season. With the defense losing pass-rusher Chandler Jones in free agency, the time is now for the offense to piece together a full 17-game season of greatness.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 4.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 59.4%
You just saw the Buccaneers win a Super Bowl two seasons ago, so I don't need to paint too elaborate of a picture to evoke a Tampa championship. You know what Tom Brady looks like with rings on his fingers. The vast majority of the core players on this team were on the Bucs' roster in 2020, with wideouts Russell Gage and Julio Jones and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks as notable exceptions. Having those players around will help Tampa's chances, but I would argue the Bucs were more loaded in 2020, when they could call on a number of players who aren't on the current roster, including tight end Rob Gronkowski and defensive linemen Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh.
The Bucs retooled their plans after Brady unretired this March, but they were forced to make sacrifices for cap purposes and have been hit by a rash of injuries to their offensive line. Brady was playing behind what might have been the league's best line in 2020, but now, the Bucs will start Luke Goedeke, Robert Hainsey and Shaq Mason on the interior. They still have a bevy of stars in their prime, but they'll need players young (Goedeke and pass-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka) and old (Jones and Brady) to play like their peak selves to dominate the NFC.
Their chances of a playoff run are better than FPI's projection, in part because FPI doesn't evaluate too many 45-year-old quarterbacks.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 5.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 70.2%
If you believe in curses or clutchness, the Cowboys are a perfect storm of incompetence. Dallas hasn't advanced to the NFC Championship Game since 1995, and it has suffered a string of heartbreaking postseason defeats along the way. Coach Mike McCarthy added another infuriating postseason defeat to his résumé last season, wasting a 12-win team that led the league in points per game. The Cowboys probably won't lead the league in both takeaways and return touchdowns again, raising questions about whether they'll decline on both sides of the ball.
The best case includes healthy seasons from quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, both of whom were slowed by injuries a year ago. The Cowboys have one of the best young cores in football with wideout CeeDee Lamb, corner Trevon Diggs and linebacker Micah Parsons all still on rookie deals. They thrive when their superstars are healthy and play at their expected levels. Losing left tackle Tyron Smith to a serious hamstring injury hurts their chances, but if everyone else does what they're supposed to do, they should be able to approximate their 2021 performance.
What happens after the regular season is up to the whims of the postseason gods, but let's not pretend that seemingly cursed teams haven't managed to win Super Bowls. Andy Reid won one with the Chiefs after failure after failure in January with the Eagles. Peyton Manning won one after just three victories in his first nine playoff appearances. McCarthy has a Super Bowl title, too, although it came toward the beginning of his time in Green Bay. Stranger things have happened.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 5.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 60.6%
The Chargers, the only team in the top eight that failed to make the playoffs a year ago, have all the ingredients you would hope for in a dramatic breakout. It starts with Justin Herbert, who finished the regular season with the league's third-best QBR. The Chargers brought back receiver Mike Williams, signed tight end Gerald Everett and used their first-round pick on another offensive lineman in Zion Johnson. Brandon Staley's team throws the ball at one of the highest rates in football and is one of the league's most aggressive units on fourth down because it trusts Herbert. Anything more from Herbert and he becomes an MVP candidate.
This offseason was all about adding pieces for Staley's defense, which could have five new starters in Week 1. It wouldn't be the Chargers without a mysterious preseason injury, so new star cornerback J.C. Jackson already is sidelined by an ankle issue, but they have depth in the secondary and along their defensive line.
Staley was able to coax the Chargers' special teams to jump from its usual 32nd spot in DVOA to only 28th a year ago; if the Chargers can ever land on even competent performance from their kickers and punters, watch out.
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 5.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 54.6%
The Chiefs have been Super Bowl contenders since the moment quarterback Patrick Mahomes stepped onto the field in 2019. Since then, they've gone 50-11, won one Super Bowl, advanced to another and fell short in overtime of two AFC Championship Games. The bar for what represents an average season for the Chiefs is set incredibly -- perhaps impossibly -- high.
This seems like a retooling year after general manager Brett Veach & Co. traded away wideout Tyreek Hill and let safety Tyrann Mathieu leave in free agency, but the Chiefs might have a more complete roster than they did last season. Mahomes should have a handful of options in the passing game after adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore to replace Hill.
A pass rush that seemed utterly dependent on Frank Clark and Chris Jones will get much-needed support Carlos Dunlap and first-round pick George Karlaftis. Reid found a handful of immediate starters in the 2021 draft, with potential stars on the offensive line and at linebacker. It won't be quite as spectacular as it seemed during the shootouts of 2019, but Kansas City could be great in a more conventional way in 2022.
3. Green Bay Packers
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 6.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 70.7%
The Packers have been consistent as a metronome over Matt LaFleur's first three years as coach. They win 13 games, lose in excruciating fashion in the postseason and then don't add the wide receivers everybody wants them to pick up during the offseason. Most teams would kill for this formula, but you can understand why Green Bay fans might be frustrated and want more in 2022.
While wide receiver Davante Adams was traded to Vegas this spring, the Packers should get more from two of their other stars, given offensive tackle David Bakhtiari and cornerback Jaire Alexander combined to play only five games in 2021. Playing in an underwhelming division, they are prohibitive favorites to advance into the postseason.
As for the playoffs, if the Packers can avoid the 49ers (who vanquished them in 2019 and 2021) or an inexplicably refereed game (which set them down against the Bucs in 2020), they might look better this January.
2. Los Angeles Rams
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 6.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 65.8%
The last time we saw a meaningful NFL game, the Rams were celebrating in their home stadium with the Lombardi Trophy. Usually, it's easy to plug in the same players for the following season, but unlike the Bucs the prior season, the Rams will look different after their championship victory. Pass-rusher Von Miller left for the Bills. Offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth and safety Eric Weddle retired. Wideout Allen Robinson joined after a sleepy final season with the Bears, while linebacker Bobby Wagner made the move over from the rival Seahawks. The Rams aren't entirely different than the 2021 team, but they've shifted some key pieces.
While they probably won't trade multiple first-round picks for players in the way they did for quarterback Matthew Stafford last offseason, the Rams might follow another tactic they used a year ago. Much like an NBA team with LeBron James or Kevin Durant, they have become the dream landing spot for any frustrated veteran player looking to chase a ring. Last year, Los Angeles traded for Miller, signed Odell Beckham Jr. after he was cut by the Browns and then convinced Weddle to unretire as the playoffs began. If the Rams win another Super Bowl, I suspect it will be with a veteran or two not currently on their roster.
1. Buffalo Bills
Chance to win Super Bowl LVII: 6.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 74.8%
No team might feel quite as snakebitten as the Bills, who lost four consecutive Super Bowls, dropped the most dramatic playoff defeat in modern history to the Titans and then retreated into the relevance wilderness for 20 years. Brought back into the fold by coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane over the past three seasons, the Bills lost an infuriating wild-card game to the Texans, were manhandled by the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and then lost an instant classic of a shootout to the Chiefs this last go-around.
Maybe Buffalo just has no hope of ever breaking through. We could have said the same thing about the Boston Red Sox, Washington Capitals and Dallas Mavericks, though, and they eventually won a title in their sports. The Bills project to be the best team in football this season, and while they have baggage most other teams don't have to deal with, being the best team with baggage is a lot better than being the Giants.
Last season, the Bills were a great team with terrible luck. This season, they are likely to be a very, very good team with average luck. Given the talent on their roster, that's enough to make them Super Bowl favorites, regardless of their playoff history.