Let's pick up my ranking of the NFL's 32 offseasons with the top half of the list. I hit team Nos. 32 through 17 last week, and I'll go through Nos. 1 through 16 today, with the entire list now reordered from the best (No. 1) to the worst (No. 32).
For the purposes of considering these offseasons, I'm evaluating the personnel decisions each team made relative to its situation the day after the Super Bowl. As an example, while the Colts probably regret trading multiple draft picks for Carson Wentz last year, I'm evaluating only their decisions from February on (which now include a Wentz trade to Washington).
I'll mostly focus on player acquisitions and won't count player or coach retirements against the team in question. (I might mention them, though.) The same is true for suspensions, so I won't fault the Cardinals for what happened with DeAndre Hopkins, but I will critically think about their reaction to that news. I'll also try to use detailed contract information where I can to get more accurate insight into the real commitments organizations have made to their players.
If you read the first part last week, you shouldn't be surprised about the team that had the best offseason:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Denver Broncos
What went right: After watching their playoff hopes collapse once Teddy Bridgewater went down injured in December, the Broncos had seen enough. With the Seahawks deciding to move on from Russell Wilson, general manager George Paton sent a significant package to Seattle to acquire the nine-time Pro Bowler. The Broncos will be thinner after sending two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-rounder and three players for Wilson and a fourth-rounder, but Wilson gives them a bona fide superstar at the most important position in sports. It's one of the biggest upgrades any team made at any position this offseason.
Most of the other upgrades the Broncos made this offseason came on the defensive side of the ball. After nearly coming to terms with the Cowboys on an extension, Randy Gregory balked at a language change and joined Denver on a five-year, $70 million deal with $28 million guaranteed. Underrated defensive tackle D.J. Jones left the 49ers to take over as an interior lineman on a three-year, $30 million pact. And slot corner K'Waun Williams followed Jones on a two-year, $5.2 million deal, while the Broncos were able to re-sign Kareem Jackson to a one-year deal.
What went wrong: It's hard to find too much fault with what the Broncos did this offseason. Fantasy owners certainly wanted the organization to commit to running back Javonte Williams, but they did bring back veteran Melvin Gordon III. Gordon's numbers were more impressive than his actual impact -- his two longest receptions came on checkdowns on the final plays of the first half, and his 70-yard touchdown run against the Giants came with Denver up by two scores in the fourth quarter -- but it's hard to be too upset about a one-year deal for $2.5 million.
What they could have done differently: After sending the No. 9 overall pick to the Seahawks as part of the Wilson deal, the Broncos used their second-round pick on edge rusher Nik Bonitto. I can understand the need for depth on the edge, given Gregory's suspension history and the fact that Bradley Chubb hasn't played a full season since 2018, but the Broncos could have used that pick on offensive line depth and addressed the edge by signing someone like Melvin Ingram III or Carl Nassib.
What's next: The Broncos will at least consider a new deal for Chubb, who is playing out his fifth-year option. It won't be an easy negotiation. He looked like a superstar in 2018, when he racked up 12 sacks and 21 knockdowns, but he has 8.5 sacks and 29 knockdowns over the ensuing three campaigns. He missed 23 games over that stretch with knee, ankle and shoulder injuries. My guess is they will let him play out the option and use the franchise tag if he has a career year.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
What went right: Blessed with cap space and draft assets after trading Carson Wentz and moving down in the 2021 draft, general manager Howie Roseman showed off this offseason. The Eagles signed star edge rusher Haason Reddick to a three-year, $45 million contract, brought back Derek Barnett on a reasonable deal and convinced Fletcher Cox to take a pay cut. When the Giants were unable to find a trade partner for James Bradberry, Philadelphia swooped and signed the talented cornerback to a one-year, $7.3 million deal, giving the team its best duo at cornerback on paper since the days of the Dream Team. Veterans Kyzir White and Anthony Harris are in the building on modest one-year deals.
That would be enough to have a great time, but the Eagles extracted a 2023 first-rounder from the Saints for moving down from No. 19 to No. 101 in the 2022 draft, a pick that could land higher than most people expect if the Saints crater post-Sean Payton. On draft day, they moved up ahead of the Ravens to draft Jordan Davis, then used their other first-round pick to trade for Titans superstar A.J. Brown, giving them a dynamic one-two receiving punch between Brown and DeVonta Smith. They even landed draft faller Nakobe Dean in the third round, which was good value even given concerns about Dean's medical report.
As it stands, the Eagles addressed significant weaknesses at cornerback and receiver. They pushed one of their first-round picks into the future and opened up the possibility of a more valuable first-rounder, giving them more flexibility if they want to do something aggressive at quarterback next offseason. Jason Kelce came back for another year. Outside of not using their top picks to land a quarterback such as Russell Wilson, it's difficult to poke many holes in what they did this offseason.
What went wrong: Getting Harris to come back on a one-year, $2.5 million deal was nice, but the Eagles are still thin at safety. I don't think there's much there behind Dallas Goedert, who has played one complete season in four years as a pro. There's just not much to dislike here.
What they could have done differently: Trading for Brown has some risk. He has already undergone double knee surgery, wasn't playing a full complement of snaps in Tennessee and will be making nearly $25 million per season over the next few years after you account for both his new deal with the Eagles (which comes in just over $19.1 million per year over the next three seasons) and the surplus value of the first-round pick the Eagles sent to Tennessee.
The Titans, in a messier cap situation, preferred to trade Brown and use the draft pick to select Treylon Burks, who profiled similarly to Brown before the draft. The Eagles haven't exactly covered themselves in glory drafting wide receivers over the past decade, but we might look back and prefer Tennessee's side of this challenge trade.
What's next: There's room to add another safety to compete for starting work in Philadelphia. Jaquiski Tartt is still unsigned after his ignominious drop in the NFC Championship Game, but he was a solid safety when healthy for the 49ers. Safeties should also pop up during training camp, and the Eagles should be actively pursuing one to compete with Harris and K'Von Wallace.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
What went right: After missing out on a trip to the postseason because they couldn't stop a third-and-4 run for a first down, the Chargers committed to getting bigger this offseason. General manager Tom Telesco added Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson in free agency, hoping to find the players coach Brandon Staley needs to play his light boxes on defense without ceding the league's third-most rushing yards for the second consecutive season.
On top of that, the Chargers added a second dominant edge rusher alongside Joey Bosa by trading a second-round pick to the Bears for Khalil Mack. The former Raiders star might not be at his peak after playing through and eventually missing time with injuries over his last couple of seasons with Chicago, but Mack still managed six sacks in seven games during his final season with the Bears. With just under $64.9 million to go on the final three years of his existing deal, the Chargers have some flexibility to either give him a new deal or move on once keeping quarterback Justin Herbert gets more expensive.
The biggest move, though, was adding J.C. Jackson from the Patriots on a five-year deal. The Chargers will more realistically commit two years and $40 million to the former undrafted free agent, but the acquisition gives Staley the closest thing he'll have to Jalen Ramsey. Jackson can play inside and outside corner, and while he's not the physical force Ramsey can be at his best, he's an even better playmaker. Los Angeles should be much better on defense in 2022.
On the other side of the ball, Telesco continued to build around Herbert. The Chargers were able to retain receiver Mike Williams, who followed his breakout 2021 by signing a three-year, $60 million extension. For the second year in a row, they followed up by using a first-round pick on a lineman, with Boston College's Zion Johnson joining to play guard. Right tackle is still a question mark, but they are otherwise loaded on offense heading into 2022.
What went wrong: The one thing left on the Los Angeles shopping list is a right tackle, and there aren't any great options left in the free-agent market. Eric Fisher and Duane Brown are career left tackles, and moving from one side to the other isn't as easy as you might think. The remaining right tackles are marginal players such as Mike Remmers, Daryl Williams, Brandon Shell and Bobby Massie. I realize that you run the risk of being cursed when you stare directly at the Chargers and smile, but they mostly nailed this offseason.
What they could have done differently: My only question is whether they would have been better off saving the second-round pick and using the money they spent on Mack to add two or three less expensive players. Mack can still be a difference-maker when healthy, but given how routinely we see the Chargers lose their stars to injuries, I might argue that a deeper roster would be a better way to go.
What's next: The Chargers need to work an extension with star safety Derwin James Jr., who will be a free agent after 2023. In a grouping with Jessie Bates III and Minkah Fitzpatrick, James will also likely top Jamal Adams' extension of four years and $72 million. Whoever signs last will probably get the biggest offer of the bunch. With a deadline for Bates coming in July, I suspect he'll be the first.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What went right: Whether it was the organization, the crypto crash or the horror of reintegrating into life as a civilian, Tom Brady dipped his toes into the waters of retirement and then changed his mind. A Buccaneers team that had been staring down a future with Kyle Trask as its quarterback had to be thrilled. Brady's return was likely enough to get Ryan Jensen to re-sign with the Buccaneers, and the legendary quarterback then coaxed receiver Russell Gage to join from the rival Falcons.
It looked as though Tampa Bay would lose one of Carlton Davis or Chris Godwin, but it was able to bring back both. Godwin was franchised before signing a three-year, $60 million extension, while Davis inked a three-year, $44.5 million pact. Both deals are reasonable for two of the top players at their respective positions.
General manager Jason Licht & Co. must have been disappointed to lose star guard Ali Marpet to retirement, but they landed on a very solid alternative by sending a fifth-round pick to the Patriots for Shaq Mason. People around the league are naturally suspicious when the Patriots easily part ways with a player in his prime, but with Mason still only 28 years old and signed for just under $16 million over the next two years, the risk of losing the 170th pick seems worth the potential reward.
What went wrong: I wasn't quite as enthused with Tampa Bay re-signing Leonard Fournette to a three-year, $21 million deal, especially when the Buccaneers were able to initially sign him to one-year deals for $2 million and $3.5 million as a free agent over the past two offseasons. It's not egregious -- they can get out of the contract after one year and $9 million -- but it's easier to imagine the Bucs finding a reliable running back on the cheap while using this money to address the defensive line.
Tampa's defense lost three regulars in Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh and Jordan Whitehead. It will replace Whitehead with former Giants and Patriots defensive back Logan Ryan, who is on the tail end of his career at age 31. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, a first-round pick in 2021, will get the first crack at replacing Pierre-Paul. The Bucs were able to sign Akiem Hicks as a replacement for Ndamukong Suh on a one-year deal earlier this week; like Suh, the 32-year-old Hicks is past the best football of his career, but he can still be part of an interior rotation on passing downs.
What they could have done differently: Going in a different direction at running back would have left the Bucs with the ability to add pieces in their prime up front. Fournette was good last season, but would it have been easier to find a running back this summer and use that money to add someone like Harrison Phillips? In general, though, I can't fault too much of Tampa Bay's decision-making.
What's next: It seems inevitable that the Buccaneers will try to convince Rob Gronkowski -- last seen partying in Las Vegas during the draft -- to join the fold for one more go-around with Brady. Gronk was spectacular when healthy in 2021; the future Hall of Famer averaged 2.23 yards per route run, the fourth-best mark in the league among tight ends, while also serving as an impactful blocker. He has taken less than market value to play with Brady, so while he would get something like $15 million per season if he wanted to play elsewhere, expect him back on a one-year deal for something less.
5. Baltimore Ravens
What went right: After a wildly frustrating second half of the season, the Ravens went back to work and pulled off a very Ravens offseason. They made a big splash in free agency by signing safety Marcus Williams, shoring up the last line of defense in a secondary that couldn't tackle a year ago. Williams' deal is really a three-year, $44 million pact, but it's for a talented player entering the prime of his career. Crucially, for a defense that lost multiple contributors to season-ending injuries a year ago, he has played at least 14 games in each of his five NFL seasons.
The Ravens also made impressive moves in the lower tax brackets. They brought in tackle Morgan Moses on one of the best deals in free agency, signing him to a three-year, $15 million deal with $5.5 million guaranteed. Veteran defensive lineman Calais Campbell came back on what amounts to a one-year, $6 million deal. And nose tackle Michael Pierce returned to the organization after an ill-fated run in Minnesota.
Unsurprisingly, it was easy to love Baltimore's draft. It stayed put at No. 14 and managed to land Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, who was regarded as one of the best players in the entire class, independent of position. One round later, the Ravens grabbed Michigan edge rusher David Ojabo, who projected as a possible top-15 pick before tearing his Achilles. Ojabo will join college coach and new Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who rejoins Baltimore after a year at Michigan.
The Ravens were aggressive in trading Orlando Brown Jr. last year before he would have hit free agency, and they made another move in honoring Marquise Brown's trade request and sending the talented wideout to Arizona for a first-round pick. It's a significant return for a player who might have been a trade candidate next offseason, and while Brown is likely to post more impressive numbers in a different style of offense, the Ravens were able to use that first-rounder to draft a much-needed center in Iowa's Tyler Linderbaum.
On the whole, we saw the Ravens shift from the more pass-neutral approach we saw on and off the field in 2021 in terms of their playcalling and decision-making. They used a first-round pick on Linderbaum, a pair of fourth-round picks on tight ends and re-signed fullback Patrick Ricard. My suspicion is that we're going to see Lamar Jackson and the offense get back to the run-first approach. Given how the offense took a step backward last season, that switch is for the better.
What went wrong: The Brown trade happened during the draft, preventing the Ravens from adding one of the many free-agent wideouts available earlier in the offseason window. Baltimore also didn't add a wideout during the draft, leaving it with the prospect of starting someone like Devin Duvernay or James Proche II as the No. 2 wideout. I still think the Ravens have time to add a receiver such as William Fuller V or Julio Jones, so I wouldn't sweat this one too much, but I'd understand if fans felt antsy about the depth chart behind Rashod Bateman.
While the Ravens were lauded for landing Hamilton at No. 14 in the draft, they might regret not being more aggressive. They were popularly linked to massive Georgia tackle Jordan Davis with their top pick, only for the Eagles to move up two spots and grab Davis at No. 13. The Ravens have a track record of finding interior linemen in the later rounds of the draft and as undrafted free agents, but there's only so many human beings on the planet who have Davis' combination of size and mobility, and they don't fall to the fifth round.
What they could have done differently: Williams is a great player, but given how the safety market failed to develop, I wonder if the Ravens might have been better off using their money elsewhere and signing Tyrann Mathieu. The former Chiefs star will make about half of what Williams will take home over the next three years, and while Mathieu just turned 30, there's something right about the idea of the former LSU star in a Ravens uniform. Baltimore could have taken its savings and gone after help at wide receiver or added a veteran edge rusher.
What's next: I'd expect to see the Ravens active in the summer free-agent market, with wide receiver and linebacker as positions of need. They naturally need to sign Jackson, who is a free agent after the season, but it appears that the former MVP is happy to go year-to-year without signing a new deal. The Ravens can franchise Jackson in 2023 and 2024 before reaching a possible point of no return in 2025.
6. New York Giants
What went right: After moving on from the much-maligned duo of coach Joe Judge and general manager Dave Gettleman, the Giants hired Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen from Buffalo and let them get to work. The team declined Daniel Jones' fifth-year option. It moved on from veterans Logan Ryan, Kyle Rudolph and Devontae Booker. Gettleman acquisitions such as Jabrill Peppers, Will Hernandez and Evan Engram were allowed to leave in free agency, with the Giants projected to net two compensatory picks for the first time since 2020.
Following the path the Bills took to calm down Josh Allen in Buffalo, Schoen brought in multiple players to try to replenish the offensive line, signing Mark Glowinski, Jon Feliciano and Max Garcia. Ricky Seals-Jones and Jordan Akins were brought in to rebuild the tight end room. Tyrod Taylor, another former Bills player, was signed to back up Jones. New York opted for quantity, and while that's not a guarantee of success, its additions all came on reasonable deals.
Most importantly, after years of ignoring positional scarcity, the Giants focused on critical positions in the draft. Blessed with an extra first-round pick from the organization's first trade down in a generation, the Giants used the No. 5 overall pick on edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and the No. 7 selection on offensive tackle Evan Neal. Schoen traded down twice in the second round and landed wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson. Smart teams use their premium picks to address the most valuable positions, and after years of using first-rounders to hit running back and nose tackle, the Giants seem to be more aware of positional scarcity.
What went wrong: Schoen came into the offseason knowing he would need to create cap space, and after spending all spring trying to deal away cornerback James Bradberry for breathing room, the Giants eventually had to cut a player who was arguably their best defensive starter between 2020 and 2021.
I'm surprised they weren't able to find a creative solution and pay some of his deal in 2022 to get a trade done, but I also recognize the cap mess was a problem the current regime inherited from the prior one. Remember that the Giants were forced to restructure some deals at the end of 2021 just to stay cap-compliant during the season.
Robinson plays a critical position, but it was curious to see them add a player who was regarded as a midround selection and referred to as more of a gadget weapon when they already have one of those on the roster in Kadarius Toney. There were rumors they might be interested in trading Toney or Saquon Barkley, which would make life harder for Jones in a make-or-break season.
What they could have done differently: Neal profiled as a franchise left tackle prospect, but after Andrew Thomas took a step forward in his second season, Neal could end up playing right tackle instead. Teams need two great tackles in the modern NFL, but I wonder if the Giants could have drafted their pick of the class' wideouts and then used the Robinson selection to address the offensive line.
It's fair to wonder whether Schoen should have brought in more competition at quarterback, given that Taylor has been either injured or ineffective for most of his post-Bills career. The Giants didn't sign Bills backup Mitch Trubisky, who inked what is really a one-year, $6.3 million deal with the Steelers. Marcus Mariota was available when the Giants signed Taylor. Jones hasn't been good as a pro, and while they haven't had a great offensive line for his run, his numbers when unpressured have dropped across each of his first three seasons. New York hasn't committed to Jones in 2023, but you can make a reasonable case it shouldn't be locked into him as the starter in 2022, either.
What's next: Without much cap space, the Giants are going to sign their draft class and try to make it to training camp without any serious injuries. There's a chance they could trade someone such as Barkley or Leonard Williams, but those moves are more likely to happen during the season.
7. New York Jets
What went right: It wasn't quite as conspicuous as the work done by their rivals in Miami, but the Jets invested heavily in the players around their young quarterback this offseason, too. General manager Joe Douglas used a first-rounder on wideout Garrett Wilson and a second-rounder on running back Breece Hall. As a former Eagles executive, it should be no surprise that Douglas invested in big men up front, as the Jets signed guard Laken Tomlinson from the 49ers and added a trio of tight ends in Cincinnati's C.J. Uzomah, Minnesota's Tyler Conklin and third-round pick Jeremy Ruckert. With Braxton Berrios, Corey Davis, and Elijah Moore all returning, New York has just about everything it could want on paper for Zach Wilson.
With coach Robert Saleh's defense struggling in 2022, Douglas also managed to shore up several key positions. The Jets used their own first-round pick on cornerback Ahmad Gardner, getting Saleh a No. 1 corner with prototypical size. D.J. Reed joins from the Seahawks to take over on the other side. With edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II falling out of the top 10 and all the way to the end of the first round, Douglas pounced and moved up to grab him with the No. 26 pick.
Again, there's a huge margin of error on any draft pick. Gardner could struggle against top competition. Plenty of teams passed on Johnson. Wilson might not be a No. 1 wideout. Given how thin the Jets' roster looked as recently as last season, though, it's at least plausible to see a path where they take a significant step forward in 2022 because of the talent they added this offseason. That's a major stride.
What went wrong: The Jets needed cornerbacks, but Reed was available on waivers last summer, and they passed twice before he signed with the Seahawks. Now, one year later, the Jets were willing to commit $10.5 million guaranteed to the 25-year-old for the 2022 season. Douglas likely could have waited out the market and landed a corner with more significant tape on a friendlier deal.
What they could have done differently: Berrios is a competent slot receiver and was excellent on returns for the Jets in 2021, but the team had to realistically expect that it would draft a wide receiver early in the 2022 draft. (The Jets were also in the running for Tyreek Hill before he chose Miami.) With Moore and Davis locked into roles, Berrios will make $7 million guaranteed to be this team's fourth wide receiver and return man. That's money the team could have put toward a more significant addition in the secondary or depth at edge rusher.
What's next: The Jets imported Jordan Whitehead and will get back veteran Lamarcus Joyner from a season-ending elbow injury, but they could still stand to add another safety in the mix. And with 2020 second-rounder Denzel Mims buried on the depth chart at wide receiver, I wonder if they would dangle the wideout to try to trade for a safety in need of a fresh start. They could also make a run at Jaquiski Tartt, who remains unsigned after playing for Saleh in San Francisco.
8. Los Angeles Rams
What went right: Everyone glows after winning a Super Bowl. The Rams are off filming movies and starring in commercials, and who can blame them? Their formula is clear at this point, and given that coach Sean McVay has gone 55-26 and made it to two Super Bowls over the past five seasons, it's hard to argue with the results.
The best thing the Rams did this offseason might be getting many of their key players to return. Amid rumors that one or both could retire in the hours after the Super Bowl, it appears that neither Aaron Donald nor McVay is going anywhere. Veterans Eric Weddle and Andrew Whitworth both retired, but the Rams were able to bring back swing tackle Joe Noteboom for what will be either a one-year, $16.5 million deal or a two-year, $25 million pact. The former third-rounder will protect Matthew Stafford's blind side in 2022.
What could have been a difficult negotiation with Stafford turned out to be easy. He held significant leverage after the Rams traded two first-round picks to acquire him and promptly won a Super Bowl, but after extracting significant deals when the Lions were cap-vulnerable in the past, Stafford left money on the table in signing a four-year, $160 million deal with $63 million guaranteed at signing. He'll make up the difference in cell phone ads.
Otherwise, the Rams churned several roster spots and picked up their usual compensatory pick haul. They project to land two fifth-rounders, a sixth-rounder and a seventh-rounder, and while losing contributors like Sebastian Joseph-Day and Darious Williams isn't fun, they have established their ability to draft and develop in the middle rounds.
What went wrong: The Rams weren't able to convince Von Miller to take a discount, as the future Hall of Famer signed a massive contract with the Bills. Miller wasn't replaced in free agency or the draft, and while Los Angeles would have picked up a fifth-round compensatory selection for letting Miller leave in free agency, it canceled out that pick by signing Allen Robinson II from the Bears. (The Rams' not getting a pick for Miller is a reminder that while compensatory picks are a meaningful part of discussing players and trades, counting on a team getting a comp pick for a player isn't always a sure thing.)
In an offseason in which the veteran market for free-agent wide receivers didn't launch and so many talented wideouts were available in the draft, I was a little surprised the Rams would forgo the Miller compensatory pick and sign Robinson to a two-year, $30.8 million deal. Robinson turns 29 this year and is coming off what can only be described as a disinterested season with the Bears. Would the Rams have been better off trading a fifth-round pick for a wideout who would command a more expensive contract, such as Amari Cooper, who will make $40 million over that same timespan? Would it have made more sense to wait for Odell Beckham Jr. to return from his torn ACL while signing a stopgap option like Julio Jones? Could they have just kept Robert Woods, who was salary-dumped to the Titans for a sixth-round pick? Robinson needs to have a career season to make this work.
I'm ambivalent about the addition of linebacker Bobby Wagner, whose five-year, $50 million contract is really a one-year, $10 million deal. There's something fun about signing away a Seahawks legend -- and players have a habit of playing better around Donald than they did in their former stops -- but this is a lot of money to spend on a position for which the Rams have typically managed to find talent for cheap. They might have felt like they needed a leader on defense, given that Weddle went from playing pickup basketball in December to donning the green-dot helmet in the Super Bowl, but Wagner really struggled for the Seahawks last year. Even if Wagner returns to his 2020 form, this deal doesn't offer much of a discount.
What they could have done differently: Keeping Woods for another year could have given the Rams a No. 2 receiver on a less expensive contract than Robinson's while retaining that third-round compensatory pick. Robinson is a more explosive receiver and could be a dangerous threat in the red zone, but Woods' blocking and leadership were so valuable to them before his torn left ACL in November.
What's left to do: Extend Donald. The future Hall of Famer still has three years and $52.3 million remaining on his existing deal, but when you win your team a Super Bowl, the usual rules go out the window. The 31-year-old will understandably want to be paid like the most valuable defensive player in the game, independent of position. I wouldn't be surprised if he became the first defender in the league to hit $30 million per season on a new deal, with a three-year, $90 million extension allowing the Rams to reward their star and create cap space in the process.
9. Green Bay Packers
What went right: The Aaron Rodgers saga came to the best possible conclusion for all involved. The Packers signed Rodgers to a massive extension, as the back-to-back reigning MVP tacked on three years and $150.8 million to the two years remaining on his existing deal. The structure of the deal gives him the reassurance he needed to serve as Green Bay's starting quarterback for years to come. The dalliances with 2020 first-rounder Jordan Love are over, at least for the next few years.
Green Bay used its newfound financial flexibility to bring back several key contributors. Journeymen Rasul Douglas and De'Vondre Campbell, each of whom had career years with the Packers, signed reasonable extensions. Douglas' new deal is really a one-year, $6.8 million contract, while Campbell's is a two-year, $21.5 million pact. The Packers cut Za'Darius Smith and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Kansas City, but they brought back Preston Smith and re-signed tight end Robert Tonyan, who had an 11-touchdown season in 2020 before tearing his left ACL last year.
What went wrong: The Rodgers move seemed to hint at an attempt to re-sign Davante Adams, but the Packers subsequently dealt their star wideout to the Raiders for first- and second-round picks. I don't like the deal for the Raiders, but I'm also not sure it was a great move for the Packers, who needed a No. 1 wideout far more than Las Vegas. Paying Adams a little over $22.5 million per year over the next three seasons -- as the Packers would have done if they handed out the same deal -- is a lot more reasonable than paying Adams something closer to $30 million per year after accounting for the surplus value of the draft picks.
Dealing Adams would have been one thing if Green Bay had gone after an immediate replacement, as the Titans did in swapping out A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks; but the Packers went for quantity over quality. They signed oft-injured veteran Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal, used the No. 34 pick on Christian Watson and brought back Randall Cobb. They have avoided investing in wideouts and have still managed to coax back-to-back MVP seasons out of Rodgers, so they deserve some benefit of the doubt; but it's hard to believe they will go into one of Rodgers' final seasons with Allen Lazard as their top receiver.
What they could have done differently: Even if there was no way Adams was coming back to the organization, the Packers could have made a more aggressive move for one of the higher-upside wideouts on lower-cost contracts in free agency, like DJ Chark or JuJu Smith-Schuster. Obviously, it would have been exciting to see them make a more dramatic move for Brown or Deebo Samuel, but given their cap constraints, those weren't totally realistic.
What's next: After signing cornerback Jaire Alexander to a four-year, $84 million extension, the next player up for a deal is versatile offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins. The 2019 second-round pick has been one of the league's best guards since stepping into the starting lineup as a rookie, and he has put out fires at virtually every spot along the line over the past three seasons. As a result, while Jenkins might not be quite as dominant of a guard as Quenton Nelson, he can justify top-tier guard money.
I wouldn't be surprised if Jenkins' next contract averaged $17 million per season, which would be the largest average for any guard (before Nelson gets his deal).
10. Miami Dolphins
What went right: Well, nobody is going to accuse the Dolphins of leaving Tua Tagovailoa stranded in the backfield. They threw everything they had at the wall to try to build a dominant offense around their third-year quarterback this offseason. After importing Terron Armstead and Connor Williams up front, keeping Mike Gesicki around on the franchise tag and signing Cedrick Wilson and Chase Edmonds in free agency, Miami traded five picks to the Chiefs for wideout Tyreek Hill, who signed a record deal as part of the move.
It followed up by adding Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert and Alec Ingold to its backfield. For a Dolphins organization that spent last year considering a Deshaun Watson trade and seemingly waffling about committing its future to Tagovailoa, there are no excuses left. New coach Mike McDaniel and the rest of Miami's brain trust will find out what they need to know about the former Alabama star this season. I also liked the one-year, $6.5 million deal the Dolphins inked to sign Teddy Bridgewater, who might be a better quarterback than Tagovailoa in a fair competition.
The defense was mostly left alone, but Miami did manage to re-sign Emmanuel Ogbah to what's really a two-year, $37.7 million contract before adding Melvin Ingram on a one-year deal with $3.3 million in guarantees.
What went wrong: Xavien Howard is a great player, but even great players usually have to wait to renegotiate their contract until there's two years left on the existing deal. Howard was able to convince the Dolphins to rip up his old contract and hand out a new deal worth five years and $90 million, despite the fact there were still three years and $38.6 million left on his existing deal. It's a great deal for Howard, but it's not a fiscally responsible move from Miami. Most organizations manage to at least tack on years to an existing deal or move some money around to delay that new deal. It's not the end of the world, but this will be a difficult precedent to avoid for the Dolphins in the years to come with other players on their roster.
While you can understand why they targeted Hill, it's difficult to see that deal working out. The Chiefs standout will make $72.8 million over the next three years, a $5 million leap past the likes of Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs. The Dolphins will have to throw on the surplus value of the picks they traded to acquire Hill, meaning an overall cost in the ballpark of $30 million per season. It's unclear why they needed to make this significant leap financially when the only other team in negotiations was the Jets, who Hill himself admitted weren't a realistic contender.
Spending that much to acquire a player who just turned 28, relies heavily on his speed and just spent the past four years playing with the best quarterback in football would raise some concerns for me. Hill is going to have moments when trading a first-round pick for him will feel like a bargain, but I think the Dolphins will look back in three years and believe they got the short straw in this deal.
What they could have done differently: One alternative would have been to use their money to sign another star lineman -- such as guard Brandon Scherff -- and then go into the draft at No. 29 overall and take a wide receiver. Miami couldn't have known exactly who would be available at that spot, but given the depth of this draft class, it would not have been left without a meaningful option. If Christian Watson (Green Bay) or George Pickens (Pittsburgh) emerges as a young, cost-controlled star while Hill struggles, the Dolphins could regret their aggressiveness.
What's next: Armstead and Williams were much-needed additions up front, but I would like to see the Dolphins add at least one more veteran offensive lineman to the fold. Given how much 2020 first-rounder Austin Jackson has struggled and the fact that Armstead hasn't completed a single full season as a pro, they could use another swing tackle. Mike Remmers or Bobby Massie would make sense as a backup for Liam Eichenberg at right tackle.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
What went right: After the Bengals' shocking run to the Super Bowl, just about everyone had the same offseason formula for Cincinnati. They wanted the Bengals to devote resources to fixing their offensive line. The Bengals devoted resources to fixing their offensive line. Things don't have to be complicated!
In come three new starters. Former Cowboys tackle La'el Collins steps in on the right side, Bucs guard Alex Cappa is in to play guard and former Patriots and Dolphins lineman Ted Karras will have the first crack at center. With 2021 second-rounder Jackson Carman expected to compete for a starting job, the Bengals could have as many as four new starters up front in Week 1 this season.
Otherwise, it was a relatively quiet offseason for the Bengals, who had been far more active than usual over the past two springs. C.J. Uzomah left in free agency and was replaced by former Falcons tight end Hayden Hurst on a reasonable one-year deal. Trae Waynes, one of the few disappointments for Cincinnati, was a cap casualty. B.J. Hill, who impressed after being acquired by the Giants, signed a three-year, $30 million deal and will step into a larger role in the lineup with Larry Ogunjobi's departure.
What went wrong: Are we sure the Bengals did enough to fix their offensive line? Collins missed all of 2020 with a hip injury, was suspended for the first five games of 2021 and didn't look like his usual self after returning. Karras is a solid player, but he has profiled better as a utility lineman in Miami and New England than he has as a full-time starter. Carman wasn't able to win a starting job a year ago, when Cincinnati's guards were among the worst in the league. The Bengals are better up front than they were on paper last season, but there's a decent chance we'll be sitting here next February expecting them to invest even further up front.
What they could have done differently: Cincinnati used its first three selections in the 2022 draft to address the defense before using a fourth-round pick on guard Cordell Volson. It shouldn't have taken a lineman for the sake of taking a lineman, but I don't think anybody would have been upset if the Bengals had added another offensive lineman on Day 1 or 2.
What's next: Safety Jessie Bates helped carry the Bengals through their phenomenal postseason run, and after franchising the 25-year-old, the team has until July to get an extension done. If both sides can find common ground before then, Bates' four-year extension should land around the $70 million Jamal Adams received from the Seahawks.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
What went right: The Jaguars cycled through a wide range of possible head-coaching candidates before landing on former Eagles coach Doug Pederson. Things didn't end well in Philadelphia, but Pederson took over a dysfunctional franchise after 2015 and won a Super Bowl two years later with his backup quarterback. Pederson has experience and was able to coax the best work out of both Carson Wentz and Nick Foles. The goal for the Jaguars should be to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence comfortable and confident after the team-wide disaster that was the 2021 season. Pederson should be able to make that happen.
Lawrence should have more help than he did a year ago. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville's other first-round pick in 2021, should return after missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury. The Jags opened up their pocketbooks and signed Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram. Up front, they added the top lineman available in guard Brandon Scherff, then franchised and eventually extended left tackle Cam Robinson. Andrew Norwell, A.J. Cann, and DJ Chark went out the door, but Lawrence will have more weapons and a star guard up front in 2022.
On defense, the Jags rebuilt their line, with the most prominent addition being No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker. Foley Fatukasi joined from the Jets, while Arden Key came over on a one-year deal after a quietly impressive season with the 49ers. They made their latest swap at linebacker by replacing Myles Jack with Foyesade Oluokun. There's more talent here, although you can poke a few holes in the contracts it took to get those guys to Jacksonville.
What went wrong: Virtually every one of the contracts the Jaguars handed out was a dramatic overpay. It's one thing to pay for a player's most recent season and treat it as if it's how he'll play in the years to come. The Jags paid Kirk and Oluokun at levels they've never hit as professionals. Taking out the unguaranteed chaff, Kirk is on a two-year, $39 million deal, while Oluokun's two-year contract is worth $30 million. I would have projected those two to make about half of that. Paying solid players Pro Bowl-caliber contracts is not typically a good long-term formula.
Jacksonville also continues to focus on players at less valuable positions. Oluokun signed a significant deal, and the Jags followed that move for an off-ball linebacker by trading up for Devin Lloyd near the end of Round 1 in the draft. Those guys might turn out to be great players, but this is an organization that has used too many dollars and high picks on the spots at the bottom of the positional spectrum.
I can understand why the Jags would want to secure the left side of their line, but Robinson is a competent left tackle, not a franchise building block. He'll make $35 million over the next two seasons. I would have preferred to go in a different direction.
What they could have done differently: What if the Jaguars had decided to select Ikem Ekwonu with the No. 1 overall pick? Working backward, they would have then let Robinson leave in free agency, freeing up the cap space to address their defensive line. It would have been cheaper to draft Ekwonu and sign Haason Reddick than it was to re-sign Robinson and draft Walker, and I'd prefer the former combination.
What's next: After adding Kirk and Jones, it's fair to wonder whether the new regime values third-year wideout Laviska Shenault Jr. as a meaningful part of the offense. Shenault was a 2020 second-round pick who had an exciting rookie season before slumping as a sophomore, so I would imagine he should still have some trade value.
13. Indianapolis Colts
What went right: Things looked pretty precarious for most of the offseason, but the Colts managed to have their cake and eat it, too. First, amid reports that they might be forced to cut Carson Wentz, general manager Chris Ballard sent the frustrating quarterback to the Commanders for a surprisingly large package of picks. The Colts moved up four spots in the second round, added a third-rounder in the 2022 draft and picked up a conditional pick in the second or third round of next year's draft. Washington also picked up all of the remaining money on Wentz's deal. The whole Wentz saga was probably a net negative in the long run, but given that we're judging this based on expectations heading into the offseason, the Colts can chalk up this one as a win.
Then, after a couple of weeks without a starting quarterback, the Colts stumbled onto a solution when the Falcons alienated Matt Ryan. Indy eventually landed the former MVP for the 82nd pick in the draft. At 37, Ryan is on the tail end of his career, but he could still credibly be an upgrade on Wentz. Adding Nick Foles gave the Colts a competent backup in the case that Ryan gets injured. I'm not sure they could have predicted how their quarterback situation would work out, but they managed to upgrade under center and pick up draft capital in the process.
After years of trying to get by at cornerback, the Colts finally took a more significant swing at their weakest position by signing former Patriots star Stephon Gilmore to what amounts to a one-year deal for $9.5 million. Gilmore might not be the player he was when he won Defensive Player of the Year in 2019, but he allowed a 78.6 passer rating in coverage for the Panthers last season.
Indy then parlayed frustrating former second-round pick Rock Ya-Sin into a swap for Raiders edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue, who was being shipped off to create cap space and room on the roster for Chandler Jones. Ngakoue addressed the Colts' other biggest weakness and will form a one-two punch on the edge with second-year defender Kwity Paye.
What went wrong: The much-vaunted Colts offensive line of years past has a few cracks. The three most important players are still around, as draftees Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Braden Smith aren't going anywhere. Mark Glowinski left in free agency, though, and neither Eric Fisher nor the team seemed interested in a second go-around at left tackle. Dennis Kelly seems likely to take one of those starting spots -- and the Colts drafted tackle Bernhard Raimann in the third round -- but this doesn't project to be the sort of dominant unit Indy had when Anthony Castonzo was in the lineup.
The Colts either didn't want or weren't able to land more veteran help at receiver, which looked like a position to target this offseason. T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal were free agents, while Jack Doyle retired and Parris Campbell hasn't been able to stay healthy. Ballard brought back Mo Alie-Cox, but otherwise, the Colts will count on second-rounder Alec Pierce and third-round pick Jelani Woods to make immediate impacts. I argued for a reunion between Ryan and Julio Jones earlier this month, but realistically, the Colts are one Michael Pittman Jr. injury away from having the worst receiving depth chart in football.
What they could have done differently: I was surprised to see the Colts respond to the departure of Matt Eberflus by hiring Gus Bradley as their new defensive coordinator. Bradley has fielded four top-10 scoring defenses over his 13 seasons as a head coach or defensive coordinator, and playing with a single-high safety, it should be no surprise that those teams featured superstars in center field. Bradley had Earl Thomas in Seattle and Derwin James with the Chargers, but when he hasn't had a similarly talented free safety, his defenses have typically ranked in the bottom quarter of the league. (The exception is 2017, when the Chargers ranked third in scoring defense.)
Julian Blackmon is talented, but he's not James or Thomas. We saw fellow former Seahawks assistant Dan Quinn reinvent himself after joining the Cowboys; after struggling with the Raiders, Bradley needs to do the same in Indianapolis. I wonder whether the Colts should have gone for a defensive coach more strategically aligned with Eberflus.
What's next: It's time to get out the checkbook for Nelson, who is off to a Hall of Fame-caliber start after three seasons. The top of the guard market is $16.5 million per season, but Nelson could very well ask for $20 million per campaign. For the Colts, it might be better to pay him that much and force other teams to pay lesser guards similar amounts in the years to come.
14. Kansas City Chiefs
What went right: Having seen their core of stars on defense age noticeably over the past couple of seasons, the Chiefs took major strides to get younger on that side of the ball. They replaced Tyrann Mathieu with 25-year-old Texans safety Justin Reid. Long-suffering utility safety Daniel Sorensen was swapped out for second-rounder Bryan Cook. They used one of their first-round picks on edge rusher George Karlaftis and the other on corner Trent McDuffie, marking the first time Andy Reid has spent significant draft capital on a cornerback since the team drafted fellow Washington product Marcus Peters in the first round of 2015.
The organization will miss Tyreek Hill, whose combination of speed and route running was unmatched in the league, but the Chiefs were able to get five draft picks from the Dolphins for a player who thrives on speed as he approaches 30. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is no Hill, but Kansas City was able to add multiple weapons to replace Hill in MVS, JuJu Smith-Schuster and second-rounder Skyy Moore. It was vulnerable recently if Hill or Travis Kelce went down injured, but now it's a much deeper offense, albeit with less star power at receiver.
What went wrong: The three-year, $30 million deal afforded to Valdes-Scantling is mostly funny money, but even the one year and $8.9 million the Chiefs will pay the frustrating former Packers wideout in 2022 has to be considered an overspend. Mecole Hardman doesn't look to be developing into a viable starting receiver, but it's a surprise that the team wouldn't let Hardman serve as the deeper option in this offense in 2022 before hitting free agency. I'm also not sure about paying even $750,000 in guarantees to Ronald Jones, a one-dimensional back who has struggled to catch or protect the football as a rotational piece.
It seemed like a foregone conclusion the Chiefs would move on from disappointing edge rusher Frank Clark, but even as he faces felony weapon possession charges, they committed $8.3 million in guarantees to the 28-year-old as part of a restructured deal. They also paid an exorbitant sum to move up from No. 29 to 21 in the draft, per Seth Walder's analysis, forgoing the draft value equivalent of a late second-rounder by ESPN's model. They'll need to hope McDuffie lives up to the lofty expectations set by Peters during his time with Kansas City.
What they could have differently: The Chiefs have motivation to keep things cheap at wide receiver as retaining Patrick Mahomes gets more expensive, but I would have liked to see them take a run at replacing Hill by trading for A.J. Brown. His numbers would pop in a pass-first offense, and at 24, Brown is only about to enter his peak. I like the strategy of trying to replace Hill with several players, but if Kansas City wanted to add a second star to its receiving corps behind Kelce, Brown would have been my pick. (I also advocated for the Chiefs to trade for Marquise Brown, but I don't think I would have wanted to top Arizona's offer.)
What's next: After franchising left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., the Chiefs will continue to try to get an extension done with him through July. Brown has all the leverage in these negotiations, given that the team sent significant draft capital to the Ravens to acquire him last spring and doesn't have another long-term left tackle on the roster. Brown would undoubtedly love to become the first left tackle in the league to hit $25 million per season on a new deal, although I'm not sure that number is realistic. A four-year, $90 million extension might be more likely.
15. Cleveland Browns
What happened: I don't think I can classify this one as simply right or wrong, but we obviously need to talk about it when evaluating Cleveland's offseason. It's fair to say the decision of any team to compete in trade talks for Deshaun Watson qualifies as somewhere between distasteful and repugnant on a moral level. Watson is facing 23 lawsuits against him alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct during massage sessions. The Browns won the trade negotiations only by essentially handing Watson a blank check. He and his representation returned that check with a five-year, $230 million deal that is fully guaranteed, one which offers no relief or ability to void guarantees if Watson is suspended by the NFL.
On a football level, the trade for Watson comes in on the high end of NFL trades. The Browns are sending their next three first-round picks to the Texans as part of the deal, the sort of haul that we almost never see NFL teams commit as part of a package. Then again, it's hard to envision a 26-year-old quarterback with Watson's track record on the trade market. Cleveland was willing to overlook Watson's alleged behavior and the likelihood of a suspension in 2022 because it felt his upside was worth the PR hit and the draft capital.
Even if Watson didn't have the off-field allegations over his head, three first-round picks and a fully guaranteed $230 million would be a staggering commitment to acquire any player. Watson has to be a superstar for the entirety of this deal to justify the move. He's capable of playing at that level. On the field, it's easy to understand why the Browns would see upgrading to a different class of quarterback as an easy victory. Off the field, the trade is difficult to stomach or regard as a success.
What went right: I thought Cleveland's decision to move on from Jarvis Landry and use a fifth-round pick to acquire Amari Cooper on a salary dump from the Cowboys was a wise decision at the time, and after seeing Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill moved for first-round picks and new contracts, it only looks better. Cooper doesn't project to play at their respective level over the next few seasons, but the difference between him and his competition isn't worth the extra money and a massive difference in draft capital. Cooper gives the Browns the sort of physical receiver they needed on contested catches last season. I also liked the addition of David Bell in the third round of the draft. There's a wider range of skills in Cleveland's wide receiver room this season.
Outside of the new quarterback and new wide receiver, the Browns mostly stayed put. They waited out the market for Jadeveon Clowney and then convinced him to return on a one-year deal, which is probably the right idea given his significant injury history. I also liked the trade for Chase Winovich, who was a productive pass-rusher for the Patriots in 2020 before landing in Bill Belichick's doghouse.
Star cornerback Denzel Ward re-upped on a five-year, $100.5 million deal, and while he set a record for three-year value on a cornerback deal at $60 million, signing Ward before Jaire Alexander meant that the Packers paid more for their superstar ($61.7 million) than the Browns did for their top corner.
The Browns aren't going to have much draft capital over the next few years, but one way to supplement what they have left is to trade down. The deal they made with the Texans in the second round ranked as the third-best move of the weekend, according to ESPN's Seth Walder, with the Browns picking up picks Nos. 108 and 124 for moving down from No. 44 to 68.
What went wrong: It wasn't a surprise to see the Browns cut Austin Hooper, but in a free-agent market flooded with tight ends, I'm not sure franchising and then extending David Njoku was the best move. Njoku is better than his raw numbers -- he was eighth in yards per route run among tight ends a year ago -- but he has already needed to undergo stem cell treatment to aid a knee injury and has topped 80 receiving yards in a game only once as a pro. Even if he does break out in 2022, can the Browns really afford a new extension for Njoku around the deals for Watson, Cooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and their offensive line?
It's not a surprise to see the Browns target a kicker after ranking 23rd in Football Outsiders' scoring kick rankings a year ago, but using a fourth-rounder on Cade York seems too confident. We're just not great about projecting how kickers will transition from college to the pros, and using a fourth-round selection costs Cleveland the opportunity to use that pick on a position where players have a larger margin for error.
York was the third kicker drafted before the beginning of the fifth round over the past 15 years, and the two other examples were Roberto Aguayo and Alex Henery, both of whom had short careers. With the Browns hemorrhaging draft capital as part of the Watson trade, kicker is a position they could have addressed in free agency.
What they could have done differently: The Clowney signing was good value, but the Browns could have used that money to address the interior of their defensive line. Malik Jackson and Malik McDowell both left this offseason, and the only additions they made were former Jags tackle Taven Bryan and fourth-round pick Perrion Winfrey. They could still address tackle in the months to come, but in a division with the Ravens, I'd want to make sure I feel good about the interior of my defensive line.
What's next: We haven't even talked about Baker Mayfield, whose relationship with Kevin Stefanski and the organization seemed to collapse in real time as the season went along. Mayfield eventually requested a trade amid reports of the Watson negotiations, and while the Browns initially rejected that when Watson turned them down, their feelings suddenly changed once Watson agreed to the deal. With Jacoby Brissett in the fold to fill in during a possible Watson suspension, there's no benefit to having Mayfield on the 2022 roster.
Mayfield is owed $18.9 million guaranteed for 2022, money the Browns would love to move to another organization. Naturally, everybody in the league knows they are desperate to trade away their deposed quarterback, and with most teams unable to absorb his cap hit in one fell swoop, the market for his services has been minuscule. Talks with the Panthers around the draft ended when Carolina moved up to select Matt Corral, and the Seahawks appear set on giving Drew Lock a clear path to the starting job.
Things change. If a team loses its quarterback to an injury, Mayfield might look more appealing. At some point, though, the Browns are going to move on from him and pay a significant portion of his salary as part of that process. The only question is how much.
16. Buffalo Bills
What went right: Outside of one significant move, the Bills mostly spent the offseason trimming the hedges and mowing the lawn of the league's best roster. General manager Brandon Beane got new deals done with Stefon Diggs and Mitch Morse and managed a restructure with Micah Hyde without even a modicum of drama. Diggs' contract will earn the star wideout $67.3 million over the next three years, which puts him just behind Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. His play has certainly justified the move.
The rising salaries of the Bills' drafted-and-developed stars forced Buffalo to move on from an entire defensive line rotation, Cole Beasley, Daryl Williams and Levi Wallace, but it realistically had to make cutbacks somewhere, and it prepared for those moves by drafting players along the defensive line and at corner over the past two years. Those picks might or might not work out, of course, but the Bills are at least in position to quickly transition in the spots where they lost veterans this offseason.
I liked most of the moves they made in free agency. Rodger Saffold, Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard and DaQuan Jones should all be able to play meaningful snaps on modest deals. Buffalo produced a career season out of Jordan Phillips in 2019, watched him go to the Cardinals for two years and then brought him back on a sensible one-year deal for $5 million.
After I wrote that the Bills were wisely approaching the offseason with their reasonable, reliable, middle-of-the-road approach toward free agency, Beane & Co. suddenly went all-in with a massive contract for Von Miller. The edge rusher signed a six-year, $120 million pact. In reality, the deal is a two-year, $45.7 million or three-year, $52.5 million contract, with the latter mark roughly in line with Harold Landry's extension in Tennessee.
If the Bills can get the Miller who was lining up for the Rams in the postseason, it will be a steal. The 33-year-old was a force against the run and the pass for Los Angeles. Miller posted an unreal 41.5% pass rush win rate on the edge and led all playoff defenders with 31 initial pressures. His work created 15 incompletions; the only other player to top eight during the postseason was Trey Hendrickson.
What went wrong: You could also argue the Miller contract is a huge risk for Buffalo. He was good during the regular season after joining the Rams, but he wasn't playing at that postseason level for most of his run last season. We've seen edge rushers Leonard Floyd and Dante Fowler Jr. look much better playing alongside Aaron Donald than they did without the superstar defensive tackle in the mix, and Miller isn't bringing Donald along with him to western New York.
The Bills attempted to sign J.D. McKissic from the Commanders, only for McKissic to undergo a change of heart and re-sign with his old team. The Bills are likely covered just fine with Devin Singletary, Duke Johnson and second-round pick James Cook competing for the receiving back role, but it's never fun to be left at the altar.
What they could have done differently: Should the Bills have followed their usual approach and tried to add multiple pieces with the money they used to sign Miller? I don't know that there was a great like-for-like replacement for Miller given the edge market, but I wonder if they would have been better off adding some combination of Haason Reddick and Melvin Ingram for what it cost to sign Miller. Given their work over the past few years, Beane and coach Sean McDermott deserve some benefit of the doubt here.
What's next: The Bills will have a few negotiations to approach this summer, as Singletary, Jordan Poyer and Dawson Knox are all free agents after the season. Poyer is sitting out OTAs, and it's difficult to imagine the team breaking up the dynamic safety duo of Poyer and Hyde. An extension should come in around two years and $26 million.
17. Minnesota Vikings
What went right: New general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah generally made measured, logical moves in his first offseason at the helm. The Vikings brought back Patrick Peterson on a one-year, $4 million deal, signed Jordan Hicks to a modest deal to shore up their linebacking corps and swapped out Michael Pierce for Harrison Phillips. Their most significant import in free agency was Za'Darius Smith, but his three-year, $42 million contract is really a one-year, $6.7 million pact.
If you're willing to trust most of the more modern and advanced draft value charts, Adofo-Mensah did a better job of trading around during the draft than the Jimmy Johnson chart would suggest. (Given that Adofo-Mensah was once an analytics guy with the 49ers, my guess is he has studied draft value pretty closely.) The Vikings added three likely starters in safety Lewis Cine, cornerback Andrew Booth Jr. and guard Ed Ingram, although they traded a 2023 fourth-rounder to the Browns to move up for linebacker Akayleb Evans.
Does extending Kirk Cousins' tenure with the Vikings count as a positive? Given that Adofo-Mensah inherited a deal where Cousins had an untenable cap hit of $45.2 million for 2022, he handled the situation reasonably well. To reduce Cousins' cap figure in 2021 and buy time in looking for a quarterback of the future, the team gave Cousins a one-year, $35 million extension and restored his no-trade clause.
As a quarterback who ranked somewhere between fourth (adjusted net yards per attempt) and 15th (Total QBR) by passing metrics a year ago, Cousins evokes a wide swath of opinions. I'm not sure it would be a great idea to sign him to this sort of deal if he were a free agent, but given the situation the Vikings were in at the start of the offseason, committing to one additional year was better than signing a more significant long-term deal.
What went wrong: By the end of the Rick Spielman regime, the Vikings seemed stuck in the middle of the NFL pack, where they were too good to land a premium draft pick, but not good enough to realistically compete for a title. Most new brain trusts come in and push their team in one direction or the other, but Adofo-Mensah and new coach Kevin O'Connell seem to be heading toward the same path in Year 1.
The Vikings moved on from veterans Pierce and Anthony Barr, but they also restructured stalwarts Harrison Smith and Adam Thielen to create short-term cap space. They can be a playoff team with reasonable luck and health in 2022, but it's difficult to see them seriously challenging the Packers or the other top teams in the NFC. A more dramatic rebuild is coming, so this offseason might look like delaying the inevitable with a year or two of hindsight.
I'll defend the trade with the Lions given what more empirical draft charts suggest about draft value, but it's difficult to believe the Vikings couldn't have negotiated more out of their divisional rivals. I'm also not particularly upset about making draft-day trades within the division, as the Vikings did with the Lions and Packers, but it's not going to feel great if Christian Watson catches a game-winning touchdown pass in Minneapolis this season.
What they could have done differently: If the Vikings wanted to treat 2022 as Cousins' final season with the team, they could have converted $20 million of his base salary into a signing bonus and added four voidable years to the deal. In doing so, they would have reduced his 2022 cap hit from $45.2 million to $29.2 million and left themselves with $16 million in dead money on their 2023 cap. I prefer how Minnesota handled the situation in reality, but if Cousins craters in 2022, the season after is going to be a massive lame-duck year for both him and the organization.
What's next: Minnesota needs depth along its defensive line, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Vikings add a veteran piece in free agency or during training camp cuts. I wonder if they would reach out to Akiem Hicks or Eddie Goldman, both of whom played in a similar style of defense in Chicago to what the Vikings will run under Ed Donatell.
18. Carolina Panthers
What went right: After spending eight years in the left tackle wilderness, the Panthers can finally feel like they landed a long-term building block at one most of the NFL's most important positions by drafting Ikem Ekwonu with the No. 6 overall pick. After Jordan Gross' retirement following the 2013 season, Carolina has had eight different players serve as its primary left tackle. Ekwonu should put a stop to that journey and help the team's various quarterbacks breathe easier for years to come.
General manager Scott Fitterer was also astute to get a contract done with receiver DJ Moore at the beginning of the offseason. The Panthers didn't get a bargain -- Moore inked a three-year pact for $61.8 million -- but an average annual salary of just over $20.6 million per season looks a lot better considering what happened in April. Receivers Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown each pushed the top of the wide receiver market forward, and while some of that was non-guaranteed contact fluff, I would expect the big-name class of 2019 wideouts to all take home more money than what Moore received from the Panthers. Moore is better than most of those guys.
What went wrong: Fitterer and coach Matt Rhule attempted to land a franchise quarterback and struck out again, as Aaron Rodgers stayed put, Russell Wilson went to the Broncos and Deshaun Watson joined the Browns. Carolina has been patient in waiting out the Browns for Baker Mayfield and the 49ers for Jimmy Garoppolo, but it sent too much to the Patriots in the third round of the draft to move up and grab Matt Corral.
There's obviously dramatic upside if Corral turns into a starting-caliber quarterback, but sending a fourth-rounder and a future third-rounder to the Patriots is an awful lot for a team that was already lacking draft capital after the Sam Darnold deal. By the Chase Stuart draft chart, if we assume that Carolina drafts eighth next year, the Panthers sent the equivalent of the 45th pick to the Patriots to draft Corral at 94. Belichick makes these trades with desperate teams more than anybody else in football, and he usually ends up looking right in the years to come.
I'm not sure I loved the move to pay cornerback Donte Jackson just over $24 million over the next two years, given that Jackson has struggled for consistency and health over his rookie contract. The Panthers instead let productive edge rusher Haason Reddick leave for the Eagles on a deal that will pay him $30 million over that same time span. The two players obviously play different positions, and the Panthers have one star on the edge in Brian Burns, but Reddick has just been the much better player since Arizona turned him into a full-time pass-rusher in 2020. The Panthers did add Matt Ioannidis after he was cut by the Commanders, so Rhule's Temple quota is still full.
What they could have done differently: Re-signing Reddick would have been a plus. The Panthers were also in line to recoup fourth- and fifth-round compensatory picks for losing Reddick and Stephon Gilmore, but they offset those moves by signing Austin Corbett, Bradley Bozeman, Damien Wilson, Xavier Woods and D'Onta Foreman.
I understand wanting to upgrade the line, and Wilson might not get the snaps to qualify after the former Chiefs linebacker was arrested on assault charges, but the Panthers probably could have found a way to add linemen without costing themselves draft capital. Given how many picks they've traded away for players over the past couple of years, they need those mid-to-late-round picks more than most other teams.
What's next: The Panthers and Seahawks are the two teams that could realistically trade for a veteran quarterback. Mayfield and Garoppolo are available, and while the 49ers might say otherwise publicly, I don't think either of those teams wants to pay those players what they're set to make in 2022. There's a middle ground where those teams eat salary and trade Garoppolo or Mayfield to the Panthers for a late draft pick.
Carolina hasn't panicked in its pursuit, but there should be a window where a deal benefits the player, the team trading away the player and the Panthers. When that window comes, the Panthers should strike. Getting Garoppolo for $8 million and a draft pick would be a great deal for Carolina, even if it did draft Corral.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers
What went right: Frantically searching for a quarterback after Ben Roethlisberger's retirement, the Steelers pieced together a plan without getting too desperate. First, they ignored the agent-driven hype about Mitchell Trubisky's market and signed the former Bears starter to a reasonable one-year deal with a base value of $5.3 million. They even got a second year for $8 million, which is about what Trubisky would have expected to see as a high-end backup option in 2023.
Then, facing rumors that as many as five quarterbacks would go in the first round of the draft, the Steelers stayed put and didn't sacrifice picks to move up and get the player they wanted. In the end, every quarterback was still on the board at No. 20, so coach Mike Tomlin and his team got to take the player they wanted in local prospect Kenny Pickett. You could make a case they should have landed a better option, but if they liked Pickett and Trubisky, they got their 2022 quarterbacks on reasonable terms.
Pittsburgh also rebuilt its offensive line with additions on low-cost contracts. I didn't love the re-signing of Chuks Okorafor on what amounts to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, but the Steelers imported a pair of new starters on the interior in James Daniels and Mason Cole. Swapping out Joe Schobert for Myles Jack was also an upgrade, although I'd prefer to see the league's premier linebacker development factory over the past 30 years draft and develop players at the position. Terrell Edmunds hasn't developed into a top-tier safety, but it was good value to bring back the former first-rounder on a one-year deal for just over $2 million.
What went wrong: Given a difficult cap situation, the Steelers probably didn't need to go after players such as Gunner Olszewski in free agency, even on low-cost deals. Cornerback, once the deepest position on this defense, has been thinned out enough by disappointments and cap-enforced departures that they needed to add Bills corner Levi Wallace on a two-year, $8 million deal.
What they could have done differently: Trubisky's deal starts at one year and $6.3 million and maxes out at two years and $14.3 million before incentives. Marcus Mariota's deal with the Falcons came in at one year and $6.8 million and maxes out at two years and $18.8 million. Considering their contracts, I would rather have Mariota, whose floor is much higher than Trubisky's.
What's next: With the T.J. Watt deal in the books, it's time for the Steelers to get busy with extensions for Diontae Johnson and Minkah Fitzpatrick, with Fitzpatrick up first. Entering his fifth-year option campaign, he should be able to top the safety market. That's currently Jamal Adams' four-year, $70 million extension with the Seahawks.
20. Tennessee Titans
What went right: The Titans were finally able to keep one of their top draft picks after a breakout in his fourth season, as Harold Landry was convinced to stay with a five-year, $87.5 million deal. The contract structure means Landry will essentially be guaranteed $52.5 million over the next three years before the team can reevaluate things in 2025. Tennessee is spending a lot on the combination of Landry and Bud Dupree over the next couple of seasons, but they've both played like Pro Bowl-caliber edge rushers when healthy. Dupree, who battled injuries in 2021, needs to return to form.
Facing a cap crunch, the Titans got creative in rebuilding their receiving corps. First, they acknowledged a sunk cost and cut Julio Jones after a disappointing 2021 campaign. They followed up by trading a late-round pick for Rams standout Robert Woods before essentially trading A.J. Brown for what they hope to be a younger version of their former star in Treylon Burks. With Austin Hooper replacing Anthony Firkser, they have seen receivers who were targeted on more than 330 pass attempts walk out the door this offseason. They have a reasonable Plan B.
After a frustrating playoff performance from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Titans managed to add a potential solution without panicking or overpaying. There were rumors Malik Willis might go as high as the No. 6 overall pick, so general manager Jon Robinson landing the Liberty quarterback in Round 3 has to feel like a victory. Willis will get time to develop behind Tannehill, and he could serve in the short term as a red zone weapon for what was already one of the league's best short-yardage offenses.
The Titans also played draft day well, as they moved up 32 spots in the third round and picked up an extra fifth-round pick for moving down from No. 26 to 35. The added draft capital made it easier to move up from No. 90 to 86 to grab Willis, although there's also a chance they could have stayed put and drafted their possible quarterback of the future without giving up a pick.
What went wrong: I can see the logic in swapping Brown for Burks; the veteran has already undergone double knee surgery and hasn't been an every-down player, but I had the same reaction Mike Vrabel did in Tennessee's draft room when I heard about the deal. Brown is a superstar whose raw numbers have been muted by the Titans living in a slow, run-first offensive attack. Burks might be a great prospect, but any draft pick's chances of turning into a player as talented as Brown aren't high.
Brown suggested the Titans weren't willing to guarantee him more than $16 million per season on a new deal; I'd like to hear Tennessee's side of the negotiation, but when you consider that the Eagles will pay Brown $57.2 million over the next three seasons, the Titans should have been able to get this deal done.
What they could have done differently: Giving Brown an extension would have been nice. One alternative even with a Brown trade would have been to use the No. 18 pick on tackle Trevor Penning, which would have pushed 2021 second-rounder Dillon Radunz inside to guard. As it stands, with Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry leaving this offseason, the Titans will sort between Radunz, Jamarco Jones, Aaron Brewer and rookie third-rounder Nicholas Petit-Frere to fill the two open spots in the starting lineup.
What's next: Jeffery Simmons had a stellar season on the interior for Tennessee, racking up 8.5 sacks, 16 knockdowns and 12 tackles for loss. Tennessee already picked up Simmons' fifth-year option, but the organization can't afford to lose yet another young contributor at the end of his rookie deal. It wouldn't be a surprise if Simmons' next deal came in at four years and $80 million.
21. San Francisco 49ers
What went right: The Niners finally addressed their secondary with a major addition by inking Charvarius Ward to a significant deal in free agency. Ward's contract will likely play out as a two-year, $27.4 million pact, although they could theoretically get out after one year and $18.9 million.
Ward was inconsistent during his time with the Chiefs, but according to NFL Next Gen Stats, he allowed quarterbacks to complete 44.8% of their passes as the nearest defender in coverage last season, which ranked seventh among all defensive backs who played at least 300 coverage snaps. He'll be a major upgrade on Josh Norman, who led 49ers cornerbacks in snaps a year ago. Safety George Odum also joined the organization from Indianapolis on a three-year, $9.5 million deal to take over for playoff scapegoat Jaquiski Tartt, while oft-injured corner Jason Verrett returned on a one-year contract.
What went wrong: 2020 breakout star Deebo Samuel requested a trade, and while the 49ers turned down any offers they received for their wide receiver, it doesn't appear that the issues between the organization and Samuel are getting resolved anytime soon. There have been all kinds of rumors about why the 26-year-old wideout doesn't want to play for the 49ers, but absent concrete information, it's fair to say that Samuel's future with the team is uncertain. He's an unrestricted free agent in 2023, so time is of the essence with this situation.
Without their first-round pick as a product of the Trey Lance deal, the 49ers continued to throw even more assets into the skill-position well. One year after drafting running back Trey Sermon in the third round and immediately losing all faith in him, they used another third-rounder on Tyrion Davis-Price. An additional third-rounder went toward wideout Danny Gray. Surrounding Lance with talent is one thing, but they have spent a staggering amount of cash and draft capital on running backs and receivers over the past few years.
Losing starting guard Laken Tomlinson to the Jets will hurt the Niners, who helped develop the former Lions first-rounder to an above-average starter. Second-rounder (2021) Aaron Banks will step in on the left side, but I would have preferred to bring back Tomlinson and use Banks to replace right guard Daniel Brunskill. And signing Nate Sudfeld, who was last seen sparking tanking accusations for the Eagles at the end of 2020, doesn't seem like the best use of $2 million.
Sudfeld would be the primary backup if the 49ers move on from Jimmy Garoppolo, who underwent offseason shoulder surgery and wasn't tradeable this spring. Garoppolo's no-trade clause is expired, and his $24.2 million base salary is not guaranteed, so the Niners could move on if they want to clear out the cap and cash. But it also seems like there's a realistic possibility of the organization keeping Garoppolo around for the final year of his deal.
The market for Garoppolo seemed like it might be robust after his Week 18 heroics and playoff run, but many of the options that were on the table for the former Patriots standout have moved on. At this point, the 49ers would need to eat a meaningful amount of Garoppolo's contract to get a deal done, with the Panthers as the most (or only) realistic landing spot.
I would imagine the 49ers will get Garoppolo into camp and hope someone else's starter gets hurt so they can try to get a first-round pick from a desperate team, just as the Eagles did for Sam Bradford in 2016, but that's a long shot. I'm certainly not criticizing the team for Garoppolo's injury, but it is left without any good options right now.
What they could have done differently: I was surprised the 49ers didn't keep Arden Key after he had 6.5 sacks and 17 knockdowns in a breakout season. Key signed a one-year deal for $4 million with the Jaguars, so the money shouldn't have been an obstacle for keeping him.
What's left to do: Make Nick Bosa the highest-paid defensive player in his own family, if not the entire league. Joey Bosa signed a five-year, $135 million extension with the Chargers after his third season in the NFL, and I wouldn't expect Nick's deal to fall far from the tree. After a season with 15.5 sacks and 21 tackles for loss, Bosa's recovery from his 2020 torn ACL isn't in question. It would be a surprise if the 49ers were able to extend Bosa for something short of $30 million per season.
22. New England Patriots
What went right: One offseason after going on an unprecedented spending spree, Bill Belichick and the Patriots had a quiet spring. They brought back right tackle Trent Brown on a two-year, $13 million deal, keeping a player who has been on a different level when playing with the Patriots versus his work with the 49ers and Raiders. Belichick made unsurprisingly reasonable moves to sign Jabrill Peppers and Terrance Mitchell, who should each see specialized roles in the Patriots' secondary. The Pats will also recoup third- and sixth-round compensatory picks for losing J.C. Jackson and Ted Karras in free agency.
What went wrong: Belichick's track record of developing cornerbacks is no secret, but the Patriots will be retooling at cornerback after trading Stephon Gilmore during the season and then losing Jackson to the Chargers. They will initially look to rely upon Mitchell and Malcolm Butler, who didn't play in 2021, to take over meaningful roles at corner.
New England also rebuilt at linebacker, and the short-term results could be tough. It didn't re-sign Dont'a Hightower or Jamie Collins and cut Kyle Van Noy. It traded marginalized edge rusher Chase Winovich, who was second in the league in pressures in 2020, to the Browns for Mack Wilson. It convinced legendary safety Devin McCourty to come back on a one-year, $9 million deal, but the defense might take a step backward in 2022.
Pats fans were excited about their spending spree at receiver a year ago, but the team spent big to add average-or-just-better pieces, and that prevented it from going after more significant fish in 2022. The Patriots' big move this offseason to help Mac Jones was acquiring DeVante Parker for a fifth-round pick; Parker's physicality is a problem, but he has had one impactful season in seven seasons. The cap situation also led them to dump Shaq Mason on the Buccaneers for a fifth-round pick, costing Belichick his best interior lineman.
The Pats rebuilt up front by trading up in the first round for Cole Strange. Belichick deserves any benefit of the doubt when it comes to player evaluation, but it's difficult to believe the Chattanooga lineman wouldn't have been on the board in the second round. Speedy second-rounder Tyquan Thornton was also expected to be a Day 3 pick in most circles. The Patriots won't worry if those guys pan out, but there's a scenario in which they trade down, add another valuable pick, and still manage to land Strange and Thornton.
What they could have done differently: The Pats' hands were tied by what they did last offseason, but I would have liked to see them find a way to keep Mason. Even if New England thinks Strange will emerge as a superstar, retaining Mason would have allowed the team to keep Mike Onwenu in a utility role, which is extremely important given how frequently Brown and fellow tackle Isaiah Wynn have been injured over the past few seasons.
What's next: The Patriots will likely try to find a landing spot for former first-round pick N'Keal Harry, whose role in the offense is blocked off by the presence of Parker. Given Harry's struggles, they won't be looking at anything more than a late-round pick in return.
23. Chicago Bears
What went right: The new brain trust of coach Matt Eberflus and general manager Ryan Poles took over a flawed team and committed to starting over. The Bears moved toward a clearer cap and a more flexible future by trading Khalil Mack and cutting Eddie Goldman, Nick Foles and Danny Trevathan. It wouldn't be a surprise if they deal Robert Quinn at the trade deadline to a team in need of pass-rushing help. The short term isn't exactly going to be exciting for fans, but Chicago should be able to start meaningfully retooling next season, when it could have close to $100 million in cap space.
What went wrong: Poles' hands were tied by the cap situation and the fact that the Bears were down first- and fourth-round picks from last year's Justin Fields trade. If there's any place I would have wanted to see them spend money, though, it would have been on protecting their young quarterback. They made a pair of low-cost offensive line moves in signing Lucas Patrick from the Packers and Dakota Dozier from the Vikings, but Fields projects to play behind one of the worst units in football this season.
Instead, the Bears made small moves to sign players at other positions, including Al-Quadin Muhammad, Justin Jones and Byron Pringle, who was subsequently arrested and charged with reckless driving. I'm sure they wanted to add competent veterans on reasonable deals, but in doing so, they lost out on the third-round compensatory pick they would have received when Allen Robinson signed with the Rams.
Poles did attempt to make one big swing by signing Larry Ogunjobi to a three-year, $40.5 million deal, only for the former Browns and Bengals tackle to fail his physical. I'm not sure that would have been a great deal given how far the Bears are from contention, but they likely missed out on what would have been their Plan B while they thought they were signing Ogunjobi. Jones, signed from the Chargers on a two-year, $12 million deal, is more like Plan H or I.
What they could have done differently: Given Chicago's modest hopes of competing in 2022, I would have rather the Bears locked down the draft pick and added veterans after the compensatory pick window closed. Pringle's one-year, $4.3 million deal doesn't look or feel great when Jarvis Landry and JuJu Smith-Schuster signed contracts for less money. (To be fair, they might not have signed for those same deals with Chicago.) The Bears also signed Nathan Peterman; they could have done things differently by not signing Nathan Peterman.
What's next: Roquan Smith emerged as one of the league's best middle linebackers in 2020, and at 25, he is young enough to still be a key player once the Bears come out of their rebuild. I'm not sure he will top the deals signed by Bobby Wagner and C.J. Mosley at their respective peaks, but a four-year extension should come in at around $72 million.
24. Dallas Cowboys
What went right: Facing a difficult offseason, the Cowboys were able to bring back several key players. They re-signed Michael Gallup and retained Dalton Schultz on the franchise tag before making a nice low-cost addition in James Washington. They were able to restructure DeMarcus Lawrence's deal, although they had to guarantee their defensive end $30 million to do so. Jayron Kearse hit the market and came back on what amounts to a one-year, $5 million contract. Leighton Vander Esch returned for one year and $2 million.
I liked their economical move for Dante Fowler Jr., who signed a one-year deal for $3 million. They then used their first-round pick on offensive lineman Tyler Smith, a position and draft status that have typically delivered great results for the organization in previous years.
It's clear the Cowboys wanted to sign Randy Gregory to a significant extension, but given his lengthy history of suspensions and modest track record of success, they might have lucked out by failing to finalize terms with him. Fowler was anonymous in two years with the Falcons, but I'd rather have his services at $3 million than Gregory's at $28 million over the next two seasons.
What went wrong: It's clear the Cowboys wanted to sign Gregory, and it's never a good look when you announce a deal, only for the player to then head elsewhere. Reports have suggested they tried to add language into the deal after the fact, so it seems fair to blame them for the Gregory deal falling apart. Gregory looked like a superstar for stretches in 2021, so it's not going to look great if he continues to keep that up in Denver.
Dallas' cap gymnastics forced the team to part with Amari Cooper in a salary dump, trading him to the Browns for a fifth-round pick. My preference would have been to keep Cooper, whose numbers fell a year ago in part because the Cowboys simply had too many weapons on offense, but they didn't have the leverage to extract meaningful value in exchange for the 27-year-old's services. He's not on the same level as Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill, but acquiring him didn't cost close to as much as those two did in terms of draft capital, while his contract isn't as expensive and has more flexibility.
What they could have done differently: Keeping Cooper probably meant that the Cowboys would have had to move on from Gallup and Schultz. Gallup is a year younger than Cooper, which helps, but I'm not sure he's the same caliber of receiver, and Gallup is coming off a torn ACL. If the Cowboys could have kept Cooper and signed someone such as C.J. Uzomah for what it would cost to re-sign Gallup and Schultz to long-term deals, I might have preferred the former, although it would have caused them to miss out on the fifth-rounder they received for Cooper and one of the compensatory picks they're set to garner in 2023.
What's next: After franchising Schultz for $10.9 million, the Cowboys have until July to negotiate a long-term deal. Blake Jarwin was cut after undergoing hip surgery, so they don't really have a viable alternative at the position. After an 808-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2021, a long-term deal for Schultz should look like the three-year, $37.5 million contract Hunter Henry signed with the Patriots.
25. Houston Texans
What went right: The Texans finally moved on from Deshaun Watson, getting a significant return from the Browns for the quarterback. Picking up three first-round picks gives general manager Nick Caserio's team the sort of draft capital it needs to rebuild a moribund roster. The deal won't be quite as exciting if those picks fall into the 20s, but if anybody should know how acquiring Watson doesn't guarantee you success, it's ... the Texans, who ended up sending the No. 4 pick to the Browns in 2018 after Watson tore an ACL as a rookie.
It's fair to wonder what the long-term vision is for the franchise, but for the second offseason in a row, Caserio had a coherent plan toward filling out the roster. The Texans extended no fewer than 16 of their own players on one- or two-year deals, then added 18 more on similar contracts in free agency. I'm not sure this is building any sort of long-term culture -- and filling out the roster with veterans didn't keep them from going 4-13 a year ago -- but there's at least some semblance of a plan.
Blessed with significant draft capital for the first time, Caserio's work was a mixed bag. Houston picked up a fourth-rounder and a swap of four spots in the fifth round by moving down from No. 13 to 15 in the draft, where it selected Kenyon Green. If the Texans are going to invest anywhere, the offensive line seems like a good place to start.
What went wrong: Caserio then gave away even more, though, by sending Picks 108 and 124 to move up from No. 68 to 44 and draft receiver John Metchie. By the Chase Stuart chart, the Texans valued Metchie as if he were worth the 18th pick in a typical draft. I'm not sure I trust Houston's confidence in its ability to outpick the rest of the league, which let Metchie fall into the second round.
Even within the context of the Texans adding veterans up and down the roster, I have to take issue with some of Caserio's signings. Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison can still be productive players, but the former Bills defenders turn 34 and 35, respectively, during the season. Are you really going to benefit in the long term from having those guys as your primary pass-rushers? I could understand if their strategy was to unload veteran contracts wholesale at the trade deadline for picks, but the only players they shipped off during the season last year were Mark Ingram and Charles Omenihu.
If there's any position in which a team can find value on the cheap, it's at running back. Why are the Texans signing Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead when the latter wasn't even playing regular special-teams snaps for Houston a year ago? Give fourth-rounder Dameon Pierce a shot. Bring in undrafted free agents for a competition. Stumble onto a player such as James Robinson and enjoy a running back on a low-cost contract and homegrown talent for three years. There's not much to lose here, but going with veterans like Mack and Burkhead offers virtually no long-term reward.
On top of that, the Texans bungled their coaching search for the second consecutive season. After ignominiously firing David Culley at the end of the season, they looked around at inexperienced former pros Hines Ward and Josh McCown. Eventually, they landed on defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, who followed a successful run with the Bears by going 8-24 with the Buccaneers and 17-39 in college at Illinois. One year after Culley felt like a lame-duck hire, Smith might have been promoted into the same hopeless role.
What they could have done differently: It's understandable that the Texans want to see what they have in Davis Mills after the rookie quarterback posted a 102.4 passer rating across his final five starts in 2021, but I'm surprised Caserio & Co. didn't add more behind the 23-year-old. The backups in Houston are Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel and Kevin Hogan. If Mills doesn't live up to that December run, the team will be stuck with replacement-level alternatives.
What's next: If the 49ers decide they want to get out from under Jimmy Garoppolo's contract at any cost, would the Texans bite? Caserio was part of the Patriots brain trust that drafted Garoppolo in 2014, and the Texans are the only team in the AFC with an opening at quarterback. They can't fit Garoppolo's present deal on their cap, but they could give the 30-year-old a new contract with a reduced cap hit in 2022 as part of a trade.
26. Washington Commanders
What went right: Washington swiftly addressed its needs on offense. After Ryan Fitzpatrick went down for the season in the 2021 opener, the Commanders targeted a more significant replacement and landed Carson Wentz in a deal with the Colts. They replaced the expensive guard duo of Brandon Scherff and Ereck Flowers by signing Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, giving them two bruising run-blockers on the interior, albeit ones who are past their professional peak. They will add a third-round compensatory pick for losing Scherff to the Jaguars.
More importantly, given their propensity for trying to win the offseason under owner Daniel Snyder, the Commanders didn't hand out any spectacularly expensive deals to free agents. Their largest average annual salary on a deal, Wentz's trade aside, was $5 million. Their big splash last year was William Jackson, so coach Ron Rivera might understandably have been shy about making any more significant moves in free agency.
The Commanders also traded down in the first round, dropping down five spots to No. 16 while netting third- and fourth-round picks in the process. Those moves pay off more often than not; they landed Jahan Dotson as the fifth wideout off the board. Washington can now roll out three-wide sets with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Dotson.
What went wrong: The trade for Wentz was widely panned, with the Commanders eating his entire salary and sending the equivalent of the 36th pick in a typical draft to the Colts for a player Indy was desperate to trade. Rivera basically said that he was willing to pay whatever it would take for the right quarterback, and while that made sense while they tried to trade for Russell Wilson, it's difficult to see whom they were competing against for Wentz.
What they could have done differently: Wentz is better than Marcus Mariota, but after disappointing two different organizations that desperately wanted him to succeed, I wonder whether the Commanders would have been better off holding on to their picks and signing Mariota to start.
Waiting out the veteran market would have given them a chance of trading a smaller haul for Ryan or acquiring Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo at a discount. They couldn't have known how everything would go at the start of the offseason, but Rivera's focus on locking in any sort of upgrade on Taylor Heinicke without being sensitive enough to the price was a negative.
What's next: With McLaurin holding out of OTAs, the Commanders should be motivated to get a deal done with their star wideout. His numbers would look even better if he had a quarterback even as good as Wentz over the past three seasons, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he enjoyed a career year in 2022. Paying McLaurin before that career year would be smart, even if the Commanders need to narrowly top A.J. Brown's four-year, $100 million deal with the Eagles.
27. Detroit Lions
What went right: The Lions continued to stay the course on their rebuild by retaining some of the players who impressed last season. Charles Harris, who led the team in sacks, came back on a two-year, $13 million deal. Tracy Walker, who moved from strong safety to free safety and looked more comfortable in the process, signed a three-year, $25 million pact. General manager Brad Holmes & Co. didn't do anything dramatic or unrealistic in an attempt to speed up the organization's process.
I also liked some of the moves they made outside the organization. Bringing in DJ Chark on a one-year, $10 million deal gives Jared Goff a valuable wideout on the outside to play alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown. Veterans Mike Hughes and DeShon Elliott offer valuable depth and are possible starters in the secondary. The Lions didn't make a single egregious signing in free agency.
Then, the draft fell well for Detroit. The Jaguars landing on Travon Walker at No. 1 overall allowed Michigan star Aidan Hutchinson to fall to his hometown team at No. 2. I'm not sure trading up is a great idea for a rebuilding team -- and most advanced value charts had Detroit's Round 1 trade from No. 32 to No. 12 as a slight win for the Vikings -- but it's certainly fair to say the Lions paid less than most teams typically do to move up to grab Alabama wideout Jameson Williams.
Suddenly, with the combo of Chark, Brown, Williams, D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, the Lions have one of the league's most exciting young groups of offensive talent. Admittedly, it might not be thrilling to think about them in an offense in which Dan Campbell is calling plays and Goff is throwing the football, but if the Lions do take a major swing at quarterback in 2023, they'll already have most of their offensive building blocks in place.
What went wrong: I applaud Detroit's patience and restraint, but are we sure the best thing to do after a 3-13-1 season is double down on only signing Lions? The only player they added who should be guaranteed of a starting job in Week 1 is Chark, and he's a free agent after the season. It's possible there just weren't many free agents willing to head to a rebuilding team, but I'm surprised Detroit wasn't a little more aggressive after the first week or two of free agency in trying to find bargains.
What they could have done differently: Williams is an exciting prospect, but in a draft full of wide receivers, the Lions could have stayed put at No. 32 and drafted one of the many wideouts in this class. Moving up in the first and third rounds is great, but the No. 34 selection is extremely valuable. It's where the Jets landed Elijah Moore in 2021 and where the Colts found Michael Pittman in 2020.
What's next: Hockenson is eligible for an extension, and while injuries kept the 24-year-old from building on his promising 2020 campaign, he has been good enough to justify a significant deal. Holmes comes from a Rams organization that was typically aggressive about signing its first-round picks after their third season, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw the Lions get a deal done with Hockenson this summer. After picking up his fifth-year option for 2023, they should be looking at a four-year, $60 million extension to get Hockenson locked up.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
What went right: The new regime of coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler certainly came out swinging. The Raiders made big splashes on both sides of the football. First, they stunned the league by sending first- and second-round picks to the Packers for Davante Adams, who promptly signed a five-year, $140 million extension. The deal is realistically a one-year contract for $23.5 million with a two-year, $44 million extension all but sure to follow, but with surplus value included, the Raiders made an enormous commitment to add one of the league's best receivers.
Vegas followed on the defensive side of the ball, signing former Patriots and Cardinals edge rusher Chandler Jones. The four-time Pro Bowler will make $34.4 million over the next two years, teaming with emerging star Maxx Crosby, who signed a four-year, $94 million extension in March.
The organization also found an interesting solution in negotiations with Derek Carr, who was entering the final year of his deal. What was announced as a three-year, $121.5 million extension is really more of a tactic in cost control. The Raiders guaranteed Carr only $24.9 million, which was $5.1 million more than he was originally set to make in 2022. They also gave him a no-trade clause.
In return, they have the right to go year-to-year with the quarterback after 2022. If he's on the roster next Feb. 15, he'll be guaranteed $32.9 million for 2023 and $7.5 million of his 2024 salary. Carr would earn a total of $41.9 million in 2024 and $41.2 million in 2025, although the Raiders would have the ability to release him if they want to head in a different direction. It's no bargain, but they get to maintain flexibility as the new regime evaluates its new quarterback. (If you're wondering whether Ziegler and McDaniels, both former members of the Patriots organization, might be going after Jimmy Garoppolo as a free agent next offseason, well, you're not the only one.)
What went wrong: I wrote at length about the Adams trade when it happened. He is a great player, but the combination of his aging curve, the Raiders' needs elsewhere on the roster, the move away from Aaron Rodgers and the surplus value in trading two valuable picks to the Packers gives me pause. For two men who learned the ropes under Bill Belichick, a master at managing rosters, McDaniels and Ziegler made a deal that I can't see their former boss making.
I'm not sure I love the Jones deal, either. At 32, Jones is likely exiting the prime of his career. He had five sacks in the Week 1 win over the Titans, but he racked up only 5.5 sacks over the rest of the season, missing two games along the way. He's better than Yannick Ngakoue, but I'm not sure the difference between the two was worth a new deal for Jones. The Raiders then dumped Ngakoue to the Colts for salary purposes, getting back only frustrating corner Rock Ya-Sin in return.
The Raiders didn't do enough for me in addressing their secondary. Trayvon Mullen and Nate Hobbs will return at corner, but Ya-Sin was repeatedly benched in Indianapolis and Anthony Averett was a corner whom opposing quarterbacks loved to target in Baltimore. Las Vegas also didn't do much to supplement the offensive line beyond using a third-round pick on Dylan Parham, so the new staff will need to coax more out of Alex Leatherwood and Brandon Parker in 2022.
What they could have done differently: I'm not sure the Raiders needed to add a significant wide receiver with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller on the roster, but if McDaniels was really in love with the idea of adding a weapon, he could have packaged the Nos. 22 and 53 picks to move up and get one of the top wideouts in this draft class. I wonder whether that might have been enough to get to No. 11 or 12 and land Chris Olave or Jameson Williams.
Adams is likely to be a better player than either wideout over the next few seasons, but as we saw with Julio Jones, there's no guarantee a superstar wideout will age well into his 30s. The cost savings would also have allowed the team to add one or two more impactful players elsewhere on its roster.
What's next: It remains to be seen whether the Raiders will follow up the expensive commitment they made at receiver by signing Renfrow to an extension. He had a breakout 2021 season, turning into a go-to option for Carr on third down and inside the red zone. McDaniels has only to look toward his time in New England to see the value of an effective slot receiver, but with Adams on the books and Waller agitating for an extension, can the Raiders justify paying Renfrow more than $15 million per season, too?
29. New Orleans Saints
What went right: The Saints stayed patient and brought back a couple of Louisiana legends. Tyrann Mathieu's deal with the Saints is really a two-year, $18 million pact, while Jarvis Landry's one-year contract comes in at a mere $3 million. Those contracts come in well below the expectations we saw when those guys hit the market, and for a Saints team that needs as many bargain deals as it can get, Mathieu and Landry could end up generating some significant value for the Saints in 2022.
Otherwise, the Saints mostly operated the way they usually operate. They cleared out cap space by restructuring virtually every significant deal in their portfolio, then used the room to try to fill holes on their roster. Marcus Maye is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, but after being franchise-tagged a year ago, the Saints might end up with a bargain on Maye's deal, which will pay just under $15 million over the next two seasons.
With a hole at quarterback, the Saints also managed to bring back Jameis Winston on a reasonable deal. Winston nearly tripled his 2021 compensation by signing a deal that will net the 2015 No. 1 pick $15.2 million in 2022. Winston posted a 64.4 QBR over the first seven games of 2021 before tearing the ACL in his left knee, so if he can keep that up over a full season, $15.2 million would still represent a relative bargain on the deal. The Saints also have the option for a second year on Winston at $12.8 million, which would give them leverage in negotiating a new deal if Winston further impresses.
What went wrong: It was one thing when the Saints were addicted to all-in tactics in the final days of Drew Brees' career, but they're still doing it with Winston as their quarterback. The Saints paid a significant haul to the Eagles to pick up an additional first-rounder in 2022, with the perennially cap-strapped Saints without their first-round pick in 2023. They moved up again on draft day to select wide receiver Chris Olave. The Saints built their legendary 2017 draft class by adding extra picks in the first and third rounds; they've been trading away draft capital ever since.
The Saints have relied heavily on restructures to keep together their core, but the result is a reliance on players who are either exiting their prime or struggling to stay healthy. I'm sure the Saints would have loved to move on from wideout Michael Thomas, who has barely played over the past two seasons, but Thomas' restructures made his deal unmovable. Instead, the Saints are stuck with players like Thomas and Andrus Peat, even as their deals look to be messes. If the allegations of assault against Alvin Kamara prove to be significant, the Saints would be left in an extremely difficult position.
Even with the restructures, the Saints lost offensive tackle Terron Armstead to the Dolphins and 25-year-old safety Marcus Williams to the Ravens. They found replacements by using a first-round pick on Trevor Penning and signing Mathieu away from the Chiefs, but those swaps are a net negative for the Saints. The organization would have received compensatory picks for Armstead and Williams, but those picks were canceled out by the signings of Maye and, more curiously, Andy Dalton. Sean Payton's retirement isn't being counted against the Saints, but it obviously makes things more difficult for New Orleans.
What they could have done differently: The Saints traded into this draft and dealt up, but if anything, the Saints should have traded down. The organization needed a left tackle after their dalliance with Deshaun Watson put the team's cap situation on hold and helped send Armstead to Miami, but guys like Duane Brown and Eric Fisher are still available in free agency. Olave and Penning need to be superstars to justify those trades, and as we saw with the Marcus Davenport deal, trading first-rounders to move up doesn't guarantee stardom.
What's next: With Kamara facing the possibility of a suspension in 2022, the Saints should prepare by adding a pass-catching back. Mark Ingram II and Tony Jones Jr. are on the roster as backups, but given the difference between their styles and that of Kamara, the Saints might want to add one of the veteran backs who inevitably get cut during training camp.
30. Arizona Cardinals
What went right: Not a ton. I'm more optimistic about Marquise Brown than most analysts, and I think his numbers could see a bump by moving from a slow, run-first offense to one that plays fast and throws at one of the higher rates in football. I'm not blaming the Cardinals for DeAndre Hopkins' suspension, and while I would have preferred just drafting a wide receiver, trading for Brown was a reasonable Plan B.
There were a couple of moves on the margins that I liked. Guard Will Hernandez probably isn't going to live up to his status as the 34th pick in the 2018 draft (where he was taken immediately ahead of Nick Chubb, Darius Leonard and Braden Smith), but getting him on a one-year deal for just under $1.2 million was solid value. Dennis Gardeck had seven sacks in 2020, and while he couldn't repeat the feat in 2021, re-signing the former undrafted free agent to a three-year, $10 million deal was reasonable enough.
The Cardinals also netted three compensatory picks in free agency, including a third-rounder for wideout Christian Kirk and a fifth-rounder for linebacker Chandler Jones. Those picks will help offset the first-rounder dealt for Brown, although the Cardinals won't receive these picks until next year.
What went wrong: The Cardinals just aren't very good at valuing players within the context of the league, and they get too attached to the recent past. Even if Brown does pan out, trading a first-round pick for the former Ravens wideout basically prices the Cardinals into extending their new receiver, meaning they'll be investing more than $40 million between Hopkins and Brown. That's before getting into the second-round picks they've used on Andy Isabella, Rondale Moore and tight end Trey McBride -- and the new deal the Cards gave Zach Ertz to keep the longtime Eagles tight end around.
Signing Ertz to what is essentially a two-year, $21.6 million deal locks the Cardinals in for a player in his 30s who wasn't getting much interest in the trade market for the Eagles at a similar price tag over the past year and a half. Ertz was superficially better after joining the Cardinals, but that was a product of moving to an offense that played faster and threw the ball more. He averaged 1.6 yards per route run and was targeted on 23.2% of his routes with the Cardinals, but those numbers were right in line with his marks with the Eagles, with whom he averaged 1.5 yards per route run and a 24% target share. It's possible that the Cardinals move to more two-tight end sets with Ertz and McBride, but at some point, Arizona has to spend in other places.
I'm happy personally to see running back James Conner get a significant deal, but outside of a spectacular one-handed catch or two, Conner was much better in fantasy football than the real thing in 2021. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry and gained 53 fewer yards than an average back would have on his carries by the NFL Next Gen Stats model. Conner also was seven first downs below expectations, and while he scored 15 rushing touchdowns, that was a product of getting the league's second-most opportunities inside the 3-yard line, where Conner's nine scores were exactly in line with what an average back would have produced. Conner will get just under $16 million over the next two years for a team with glaring needs elsewhere on its roster.
If it feels like I'm focusing on the fantasy positions, well, the Cardinals didn't do much else. They let cornerback Robert Alford walk. They didn't replace Jones, who left in free agency for the Raiders. For all the focus on the offense, the Cardinals have been better on defense than offense by DVOA in both 2020 and 2021. But it's tough to see the defense holding serve in 2022.
Oh, and after all that, the Cardinals appear to have a rocky relationship with franchise quarterback Kyler Murray, who wants a contract extension. Murray has gone through the cycle of removing the team from his social media and releasing a public statement through his agent. He has the plausible leverage of going back to Major League Baseball, but given that his baseball contract was worth $4.7 million and an extension with the Cardinals would come in with about $100 million guaranteed, I'm not sure it's really a meaningful decision.
What they could have done differently: They could have used a draft pick on a wide receiver instead of trading for Brown. This was a deep, talented class of wideouts, and I have to believe that there was at least one player on the board at No. 23 the Cardinals could have considered. Trading for Brown, even given a relatively modest contract over the next two seasons, leaves a cap-strapped Cardinals team in a vulnerable spot as they ponder a raise for Murray. With Hopkins suspended for six weeks, I also believe the Cardinals could have gotten by with a less expensive option and used that first-round pick on an edge rusher or a cornerback, both of which are huge holes on this roster.
What's left to do: The organization has committed to building around Murray, so unless the relationship between player and club is just totally destroyed, Arizona probably needs to bite the bullet and get this deal done. Where the deal comes in is the tough part. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have signed expansively long contracts that make it virtually impossible to move on for years to come, but those players have also frankly been more impressive than Murray as pros.
Deshaun Watson just inked a five-year, $230 million deal that's fully guaranteed, and while I don't see that trend spreading to many other players around the league, young quarterbacks might ask for that on their first extensions. The best-case scenario for the Cardinals is probably something in the ballpark of four years and $170 million, which would put a team that already struggles with its cap into an all-in scenario.
31. Atlanta Falcons
What went right: This is a tough one. Atlanta re-signed star kicker Younghoe Koo to a five-year, $24.3 million deal. Running back Cordarrelle Patterson came back on what amounts to a one-year, $5 million contract, which is reasonable enough for a player who emerged in a valuable role for Arthur Smith's offense in 2021. Casey Hayward Jr. is still a valuable cornerback, and committing one year and $6 million to the former Packers draftee gives Atlanta a legitimate tandem between Hayward and third-year superstar A.J. Terrell.
I'll get to why I didn't like what Atlanta attempted to do at quarterback this offseason, but after making a mess of its own doing, the backup plan was reasonable enough. Marcus Mariota was close to a league-average starter for most of his time with Tennessee, and landing him for just $6.8 million in 2022 gives the Falcons a viable floor at QB. Drafting Desmond Ridder in the third round was a reasonable-upside option; even if Ridder only ends up as a viable backup quarterback, the four-year, $5.4 million deal Ridder is expected to sign would still be a good use of a pick.
What went wrong: Well, let's start with Atlanta's pursuit of Deshaun Watson. In addition to whatever moral objections one can raise toward the teams that competed to trade for the Texans' quarterback, the Falcons were probably the least-equipped team in the league to acquire Watson. A Watson trade never made an iota of sense for Atlanta.
The dire cap situation would have forced general manager Terry Fontenot to both trade Matt Ryan and release Grady Jarrett to work a Watson deal onto the books. Watson would have been left with little help on a Falcons team that desperately needs to hold onto its draft picks for years to come. It's tempting to think of Watson as a player who can guarantee his team a certain number of wins, but the last time we saw Watson on the field, he had just completed a healthy season for a 4-12 Texans team. We would have seen more of that in Atlanta.
In the process, by pursuing Watson, the Falcons played themselves. They alienated Ryan, who was then granted a trade to the Colts for a third-round pick. In doing so, the Falcons were forced to eat more than $40 million in dead money for their longtime quarterback, an NFL record. After the ill-fated extension for Julio Jones and the disastrous free-agent signing of Dante Fowler Jr. are accounted for, the Falcons have more than $63 million in dead money on their cap this season.
Merely to sign their draft class, the Falcons had to then extend Jake Matthews and Jarrett. They are both good players, but Matthews now has the seventh-largest contract at offensive tackle by three-year value, while Jarrett ranks fourth by the same measure among defensive tackles. Jarrett is not the problem with the Atlanta defense, and sacks aren't everything, but that's a huge deal for a player who had one sack and 12 knockdowns in 17 games a season ago.
On top of that, the Falcons were unable to keep their own successes in free agency. Russell Gage left for the Buccaneers. Foyesade Oluokun joined the Jaguars on what was admittedly too big of a contract for the Falcons to match. The compensatory picks they received for losing both players were cancelled out by signing Hayward and Mariota. If they hadn't signed those two players, veterans like Damien Williams, Auden Tate and Rashaan Evans also would have offset those compensatory selections.
The Falcons don't have the cap space to make meaningful additions, but their roster is so bereft of talent that they're stuck cycling through veterans with low-cost contracts to field a competent team. They can get out of this cycle next year, when cutting Deion Jones and Mariota would get the Falcons to more than $59 million in cap space, but unless the Falcons find lightning in a bottle with Ridder, this is not going to be a fun situation to watch.
Oh, and wideout Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign after placing several parlay bets on his phone last season. When he comes back, Ridley is expected to request a trade, which the Falcons will have to execute with little leverage. At least the Texans were able to take home three first-round picks for Watson. This is the worst situation in the league at the moment.
What they could have differently: The Falcons probably should have just torn everything up and started over. Trading Ryan earlier in the offseason would have extracted a more significant return, and cutting Jarrett would have cleared out future cap space. The Falcons have been tugging at their Band-Aid over the past year or so, but it needs to get ripped off.
What's left to do: Work on a new deal for Chris Lindstrom, who has emerged as one of the league's better right guards. The Falcons picked up Lindstrom's $13.2 million fifth-year option for 2023, but getting an extension done now gives them the maximum runway possible on a new deal while scoring a rare piece of good news for the franchise. Lindstrom is not in the same tier as Colts star Quenton Nelson, who should reset the top of the guard market, but a four-year, $60 million deal should be in the ballpark for the 25-year-old lineman.
32. Seattle Seahawks
What went right: The Seahawks were able to retain underrated safety Quandre Diggs, who suffered a fractured fibula and broken ankle during the final game of the 2021 season. Diggs' three-year, $39 million deal is really a one-year, $13.5 million pact, so the Seahawks got to keep a talented player and maintain leverage if the injury prevents the 29-year-old from returning to his prior form.
Seattle also stayed put in the first round and used its first-round pick on left tackle Charles Cross, addressing one of its biggest positions of need. Some teams were wary of taking a left tackle from Mike Leach's offense after seeing Andre Dillard fail with the Eagles, but that logic has always been overly simplistic. I can remember teams passing on Aaron Rodgers in the 2005 draft over concerns that Jeff Tedford quarterbacks such as Kyle Boller and Joey Harrington hadn't lived up to expectations, and that one hasn't exactly held up years later. Cross might fail, but it won't be because he played in an Air Raid offense.
What went wrong: You've probably heard about the Russell Wilson trade by now. One week after Pete Carroll publicly said that the Seahawks had "no intention" of trading Wilson, the Seahawks sent their franchise quarterback to the Broncos for Drew Lock, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant and five draft picks, including two first-rounders. I wrote at length about this deal at the time, and I don't like it for Seattle.
The Seahawks simply didn't get enough for a superstar in the prime of his career, and while I held out some hope that they would then go after a viable replacement under center, they're about to head into 2022 with Lock and Geno Smith as their two quarterbacks. They went from having a true superstar under center to having two replacement-level veterans and no clear path toward their next franchise passer. That's a disaster.
Beyond the Wilson deal, the Seahawks further committed toward their philosophy of a 1970s offense. Amid concerns about running back Chris Carson's future because of a neck injury, Seattle re-signed Rashaad Penny to a one-year, $5.8 million deal then used a second-round pick on Ken Walker III. As The Athletic's Ben Baldwin pointed out, the Seahawks should know how easy it is to find running backs with late-round picks, having traded one for Marshawn Lynch while using the 249th selection in 2017 to draft Carson. This team has too many needs elsewhere to continue investing meaningful cash and draft capital on tailbacks, even if those backs do end up succeeding.
Fant will replace the departed Gerald Everett in the lineup, but I was shocked to see Seattle sign fellow tight end Will Dissly to a three-year, $24 million deal. As it plays out, Dissly's deal is more like a one-year pact for $10.8 million, but that's TE1 money for a player who hasn't topped 262 receiving yards in a single season as a pro. Dissly is a solid blocker, but the Seahawks need him to be a Rob Gronkowski-level blocker to justify that sort of contract.
What they could have done differently: Well, they could have kept Wilson and fired Carroll. If the relationship between quarterback and head coach had deteriorated to the point where one had to go, Seattle made the wrong choice. Carroll has been a very good NFL coach, but he is 70 years old. The defense he helped mold into the league's best is gone, as the Seahawks fell to 21st in defensive DVOA a year ago. Carroll's choices for coordinators haven't worked out, and the unit has struggled to draft effectively for the better part of the past decade. It's tough to imagine that we'll look back in five years and feel like the Seahawks made the right choice between their head coach and quarterback.
What's left to do: Extend DK Metcalf, who was the subject of trade rumors around the draft. I wouldn't be shocked if the Seahawks did trade their star wideout, who is in the final year of his rookie deal, but I also would encourage general manager John Schneider to get a deal done. With wide receiver A.J. Brown signing a four-year, $100 million pact with the Eagles as part of his trade to Philadelphia, I would expect his former Ole Miss teammate to sign for a few million more.