Sitting home on a Sunday afternoon thanks to a COVID-induced Week 17 bye, my socially distanced family and I settled in around 1 p.m. ET and flicked on Sunday Ticket looking for some stuff to react to. To overreact to, ideally.
We were not disappointed.
Did Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase really just convert a third-and-27? To get over 250 yards for the day? And did coach Zac Taylor really decide to pass up a game-winning field goal just because he couldn't stomach the thought of giving Patrick Mahomes the ball back with the AFC North title on the line? And did it work???
Did Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford really just turn the ball over for a third time against Ravens third-stringers but then pull another game out of the fire with a touchdown pass to Odell Beckham Jr., of all people?
Did the Titans score 34 points against a Dolphins defense that had given up more than 20 only once in its past seven games? And did they take over the AFC's top seed along the way?
Did the Giants finish a game with minus-10 passing yards? Like, 10 fewer passing yards than I had this week?
Are the Raiders really going to make the playoffs?
Are the Buccaneers about to lose to the Jets? (No, of course not, but whew.) And what exactly happened with Antonio Brown?
It was a wild Week 17 early window, for sure, and it offered no shortage of overreaction fodder. But out of all of those, we have to start with the champs, who might have had the weirdest day of all.
The offensive attrition is going to be too much for Tom Brady and the Bucs to overcome
The headline of the day from Bucs-Jets was, unfortunately, once again, the antics of Antonio Brown. In the middle of the game, he was seen melting down on the sideline, unable to be consoled by teammates, to the point where he ripped off his shoulder pads and jersey, threw his wristbands and undershirt into the crowd and ran off the field shirtless holding up a peace sign. After the game, Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said Brown was no longer a Buccaneer, which is something he should have said weeks ago. We've all spent way too much time and energy and ink on Brown, and if he never plays in the NFL again, the league will be no worse off.
The problem for the Bucs is a football one. They've already lost top pass-catcher Chris Godwin for the year to a knee injury. Running back Leonard Fournette, who was their second-leading pass-catcher when Godwin got hurt, is out at least until the playoffs (and possibly longer) with a hamstring injury. Mike Evans played Sunday but isn't 100 percent. Brown, who missed a chunk of this season due to an ankle injury and another chunk due to a suspension for misrepresenting his vaccination status, was supposed to be the guy who helped the Bucs overcome these losses and make their title defense. And he appears to have quit the team in the middle of a game. The Bucs still have Rob Gronkowski, and they have depth at receiver, but you start to wonder at what point it'll all be too much.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Look, Brady can overcome just about anything. But if anyone in the world knows how hard it is to repeat as Super Bowl champion, it's him. And the reason it's so hard is because everything has to go so right for a team to win it the first time, let alone two years in a row. The Bucs were ludicrously healthy last season, especially at this point on the calendar, and that's a big reason they won it all. It's not as if they're whole on defense, either, by the way, as Lavonte David, Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett have all been missing time lately.
Can they repeat? Sure. But their road is getting tougher by the week, thanks to the injuries and the weird defection. In a year when COVID-19 is rendering everything more uncertain, there's less margin for error for everyone. The Bucs are running low on bodies.
Joe Burrow will win a Super Bowl title with the Bengals
In recent weeks, the MVP award discussion has condensed a bit. Being shut out by the Saints a couple of Sunday nights ago damaged Tom Brady's case and, along with the way Aaron Rodgers has played, made Rodgers the favorite, with Colts running back Jonathan Taylor lurking in case Rodgers slipped up.
But over the past two weeks, in victories over the Ravens and Chiefs that clinched the AFC North title for Cincinnati, Burrow has thrown for 971 yards, which is the second most in a two-game span in NFL history (behind Dak Prescott in 2020). In those two games, he completed 78.9% of his passes, averaged 11.4 yards per attempt and threw eight touchdown passes with no interceptions.
Burrow is probably not in this year's MVP discussion -- too many interceptions, and just a tick behind the big guys in a couple of key categories. But man, does this guy look like the real deal, a transformative player at the most important position, a Winner with a capital W.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. How can you watch this team and not be excited about it? Ja'Marr Chase looks like a slam dunk for Offensive Rookie of the Year and might have been the best player in this entire draft (except maybe Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons, who's going to win Defensive Rookie of the Year). He just caught 11 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns -- against the Chiefs -- in a division-clinching game.
Zac Taylor has to be in the running for Coach of the Year for a Bengals team that just became the longest preseason long shot (25-to-1) to win its division since the Kirk Cousins-led 2015 Washington football team. Tee Higgins. Joe Mixon. An ascendant defense that found a way to hold Mahomes & Co. to three points in the biggest second half of its season after getting rolled in the first.
This looks like a team that will open the 2022 season as division favorites and be in that mix for several years to come. The center of it all is Burrow, whose arrival as the top pick in the 2020 draft appears to have done what every team hopes its No. 1 overall pick will do -- completely change the way the organization, the roster and the fan base feel about themselves. His and the Bengals' emergence is one of the great NFL stories of the year, and if they can keep him healthy, there is absolutely nothing wrong with this perennially star-crossed franchise dreaming the biggest of dreams.
The Cowboys do not have a championship-caliber offense
Yeah, yeah, yeah, they scored 56 last Sunday night against whatever it is Washington ran out there and we were all eager to say everything was fixed. But then they looked very limited and very tentative at home against an Arizona team that hadn't shown much lately, and now the slump talk is back on.
Dak Prescott averaged 4.8 air yards per attempt Sunday, which is the second-lowest figure he has ever posted in a game in which he attempted at least 10 throws. And trying the short stuff didn't help him much, either, as Arizona batted five of his passes at the line of scrimmage -- the most of any quarterback in a game this NFL season.
Dallas trailed 22-7 going into the fourth quarter before finally putting a couple of touchdowns on the board, but Arizona and Kyler Murray were able to salt it away and hold on to the lead.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Sorry, we've just seen enough of the bad to make us worry now. And not to keep pumping up the Bengals, but the fact is it's tough to watch an offense like Cincinnati's and then watch Dallas and feel like the Cowboys are explosive in any way. Yes, they have the skill players they need to be a dominant offense, and yes the offensive line is theoretically good. But it's just not working in any kind of rhythm right now (other than last Sunday), and that's alarming.
Does Prescott not trust his protection? Is Ezekiel Elliott so limited now that the run game can't be relied on? Has Kellen Moore plateaued as a playcaller? There's certainly something wrong. There might be a lot of things wrong.
But right now, the Cowboys feel like a good team that has the potential to be great but isn't reaching that potential. I don't see how they can make a Super Bowl run with just an opportunistic defense and an offense that might have a great game waiting at any time.
The Titans are now the clear AFC favorites
While we are on the subject of Coach of the Year candidates, may I present to you Mike Vrabel, whose Titans have weathered the loss of Derrick Henry, thought at one point to be the league's most indispensable player, and find themselves the top seed in the entire AFC with one game to go. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing, elevated to that position this year after the highly successful Arthur Smith left to coach the Falcons, has found a way to game-plan success with a crew of backup running backs and constant health issues at wide receiver.
The Titans just dropped 34 points on a Dolphins defense that had been smothering teams for more than two months, and their win combined with the Chiefs' loss means they are one Week 18 victory away from clinching the top seed and lone bye in the AFC playoffs with Henry potentially coming back fresh for a postseason run. Anybody like the idea of playing against that in January?
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Due respect to what Vrabel & Co. are doing, I just don't think there is a clear favorite in the AFC. The Chiefs just won eight in a row before losing a wild one by three points on the road to a red-hot team. Can't downgrade them too much off that one. Buffalo has its issues but seems to be overcoming them, and it has the league's most weatherproof quarterback for January. The Patriots are obviously going to be tough to play. The Colts too, if they get in. I guess the Raiders aren't an easy out. You get the picture.
If Tennessee ends up with the 1-seed, and if Henry does come back, it's easy to make a case for the Titans. But I've also covered two of their games in which they ran for more than 200 yards and lost because they turned the ball over four times. As long as that remains a possibility, it's hard to trust them completely. They're in the mix, but not a clear favorite.
The Raiders' head-coach opening is better than the Jaguars' opening
Well, first of all, are we sure it's coming open? After Sunday's victory in Indy, the 9-7 Raiders need only to win next week against the Chargers to get into the playoffs and extend the run of interim coach Rich Bisaccia at least a week. They looked as dead as dead could be when I saw them in Kansas City a few weeks back, but you have to give Bisaccia credit for keeping them alive since. A two-point win in Cleveland. A four-point win against the Broncos. A big-time, hard-fought win Sunday in Indianapolis against a team that had been emerging as a major AFC factor.
I don't know if they're good enough to be a real AFC contender, but the Raiders are tough as hell, and they're definitely playing hard for their coach at the tail end of a season in which just about everything has gone wrong.
For the purposes of this exercise, let's assume this is a job that's coming open, but don't forget I wrote this disclaimer. If nothing else, Bisaccia has earned the right to make his case.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. The Jaguars' job is still going to have appeal because rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence still has appeal. When you talk to people around the league, they're willing to keep believing in Lawrence's ability and long-term outlook and chalk up his season to the disastrous decision to hire Urban Meyer. You might disagree, but I'm telling you that's what I'm hearing.
As for the Raiders, there's a quarterback question there. And that's nothing at all negative against Derek Carr, who has played extremely well and shown great leadership through this tough season. It's just that he has only one year left on his contract, and his future with the organization is therefore unsettled. What if the new coach doesn't like him or wants someone else? What if Carr wants to go somewhere else? What if they can't agree on a contract? You tell me Carr is locked in, and there's more stability there, though the Raiders still need to work on the defense and some other areas of the roster.
But Lawrence is 22 years old. Candidates were desperate for a chance to get to coach him a year ago, and they will be again this year. Building from scratch offers a lot of appeal; that's just the way these things go.