Predicting NFL Week 17 upsets and 2022 breakouts, plus league buzz: Baker Mayfield's future, Super Bowl picks, more

Welcome to Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season, as teams jostle for the final postseason spots and try desperately to keep players off the COVID-19 list. We asked insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for insight on the hottest topics of the week and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

They first discuss Baker Mayfield and his future in Cleveland. They then make their upset picks for the week followed by each naming a player whose recent play has earned him a bigger role in 2022.

Graziano and Fowler also make early Super Bowl picks before emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including nuggets on Mike Mayock's future in Las Vegas, why the Giants plan to keep Daniel Jones in 2022 and an injury update on Mike Evans. Here we go:

Jump to:
Baker Mayfield's future | Upset picks
Bigger role in 2022 | Super Bowl picks
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Let's talk through Baker Mayfield's situation. Is there any chance he's not Cleveland's 2022 starter?

Graziano: Well, sure. The Browns are on the hook for a fully guaranteed $18.858 million, which is the impediment, but if the Jets could get something for Sam Darnold in a trade last offseason, it's not ridiculous to think Cleveland could get something for Mayfield if it decided to move him. And if it didn't -- and it still wanted to bring in someone else to start over him -- it could certainly adjust that individual's contract to structure it with a low 2022 number so the overall quarterback cost wouldn't be out of control. The names of the guys potentially available on the 2022 offseason QB market are the kinds of names for which you would stretch.

Fowler: Agreed. The Browns are only as good as their options, though, and I'm not sure there's a clear path to acquiring some of the top passers available. Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson have no-trade clauses, and they seem to have specific locations in mind. Those locations are not Cleveland. Aaron Rodgers is a West Coast guy. Maybe somebody else fits the Browns' mold. But running it back with Mayfield, who has been beat up all season and might have been pressing due to his contract, seems plausible. He's still capable. If the Browns decide they want to move on from him, they would need a trade partner in the worst way. I don't see them carrying him on the roster with a new quarterback -- a draft pick, maybe, but I just don't see that dynamic going well. And I do think he'd have a market. Where are you on that, Dan?

Graziano: I could see the case being made, based on what we know about Mayfield, that bringing in a younger quarterback to compete with him could be just the thing he needs to motivate him to improve. I'm just not sure I agree with it. First of all, it definitely needs to be mentioned here that he's playing hurt, and an accurate assessment of his abilities probably can't be made right now. And even if this is what you think he is, I'm not sure bringing in competition and getting his juices flowing is guaranteed to work. It seems to me the Browns built a roster that could win if it got competent quarterback play, and when it doesn't, they lose. They have to ask themselves (A) if they were right about the rest of the roster and (B) if they can count on consistently competent QB play from Mayfield. I don't envy their position.

Fowler: Not sure either of those questions have clear-cut answers right now, though the roster is strong in most areas. There's always the Chicago game plan of creating bridge-level competition with a hired gun type such as Nick Foles vs. Mitchell Trubisky. The Browns still have Case Keenum under contract, or they could go the Andy Dalton-Teddy Bridgewater-Ryan Fitzpatrick route. But that's hardly an inspired move. If Mayfield can somehow bottle up his good stretches -- 2018 post-Hue Jackson and 2020 -- and the Browns believe he can find that gear again, this marriage is salvageable.

What's your top upset pick for Week 17?

Fowler: Cardinals (+5.5) over Cowboys. The Cardinals must find their edge after a three-game slide. Luckily, they can find that on the road, where they are 7-1. Dak Prescott was lights-out at home last week, but I'm expecting Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray to rediscover their offensive touch, too.

Graziano: I have to say, I lingered over that one for a second but ultimately went with Dallas in my picks. Just not sure where Arizona is right now after the past few weeks and what to think of their chances moving forward.

I'm going Bengals (+5) over the Chiefs. Because why not? I'm all aboard the Joe Burrow bandwagon, the Chiefs have to lose at some point (I think?), and with the ability to clinch a division title staring them right in the face, I think Cincinnati muscles up and has a chance to pull the upset. The Bengals are a weird team. They've lost some games they shouldn't have lost (Jets, Bears) and they've either won or been in some games they shouldn't have won or been in (Packers, Ravens). They can play with anybody, and Burrow is a winner who has a chance to show it in a big way this weekend.

Fowler: I'm a bit surprised at that line. The Chiefs are hot, but the Bengals are emitting similar levels of heat. Cincinnati has five legitimate offensive weapons, the offensive line is better than expected and so is the defense. I guess the tiebreaker goes to Kansas City's defense, which has held five of its last seven opponents to 10 points or fewer.

Which player has carved out a bigger role for next season with his recent performance?

Graziano: Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny. How bad did things get for the Seahawks' 2018 first-round pick? The team declined his 2022 fifth-year option in May even though it would have been only $4.523 million. So he'll be eligible for free agency, and his injury history will legitimately give teams pause. But he has shown over the past few weeks -- he has 130 rushing yards in two of his past three games -- that he's capable of big things when he's healthy and they give him the ball. If Penny is back in Seattle, he should have an inside track for increased work and maybe even the starter's role. And if he signs elsewhere, it should be with a big role in mind.

Fowler: Good call. The Seahawks have been waiting years for Penny's recent stretch of play. I'll go with Texans quarterback Davis Mills. He has shown promise in his past three starts, completing 73 of 106 passes for 794 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Mills was a good use of a third-round pick, taking a chance on a potential starter without stretching draft capital. He at least deserves the right to compete in 2022 with a draft pick or free-agent/trade acquisition.

If you had to predict Super Bowl LVI right now, who wins and why?

Fowler: Packers 31, Bills 21. The playoff universe is aligning for Green Bay, which should have home-field advantage throughout. The Packers will be ready for Tampa Bay, which is more beat up than it was a year ago. The Bills have flailed a bit as a trendy Super Bowl pick, but I'm expecting them to peak at the right time. Counting on Kansas City to make three straight Super Bowls is a tough sell. The Packers would have too many weapons for the Bills, and the versatility to win with the run or the pass, which you need in the Super Bowl. And Aaron Rodgers, after all he has been through with Green Bay, can punctuate that relationship with a championship on his way out (potentially), a moment he would embrace.

Graziano: Bills 34, Packers 31. Same teams, but I'm sticking with my preseason pick of the Bills over the Packers. After what I saw Sunday in Foxborough, I'm inclined to believe that the Bills' problems are largely behind them and they're a team that can get geared up for the biggest games. Josh Allen might make a brutal mistake or two along the way, but he has the ability to make game-changing plays that other athletes just aren't good enough to make. This team is driven to avenge last season's AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs, and I think it can do it.

Fowler: Like the conviction. The NFC was hard to pick because it's so top-heavy. I still think the Bucs have the NFC's most complete roster, but injuries might overtake them. If the Rams' brain trust of Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford finds something in January, they'll be dangerous. But I have a hard time thinking they will win in frigid Green Bay in late January.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler:

• One of the most interesting positions to watch over the next few weeks is the Raiders' general manager job occupied by Mike Mayock. There is at least some optimism in the building that Mayock could get a real chance at the gig without Jon Gruden, who had final say over personnel decisions. Mayock and team owner Mark Davis have maintained a good relationship, and save a few draft missteps, the roster is in decent shape. The flip side is that Davis hasn't made a firm decision or tipped off his plans, and some league folks are expecting a change. The situation remains fluid and neither option would shock. I'm just saying Mayock being let go is not a slam dunk.

• The Giants planning to keep Daniel Jones next season, as our Adam Schefter reported, makes sense given New York's biggest priority -- fixing the offensive line. The Giants believe that has been by far the biggest issue over the past few years. Jones' 2022 cap hit is a team-friendly $8.4 million, providing room to utilize monetary and draft capital on a more formidable front. All that said, I expect the Giants to at least look into Russell Wilson if he's available in a trade. It's no secret that the New York market has intrigued Wilson, who one day wants to get into NFL ownership. New York can keep Jones and at least window shop. Much will depend on who is handling GM duties.

• The problems with the Steelers' offense are well-documented, but Ben Roethlisberger is making sure to finish with class in what could be his final season. Pittsburgh's problems run deep. The offense is in the bottom third in every major statistical category, including 29th in rushing. The Steelers got embarrassed in Kansas City. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada and Roethlisberger never seemed to find their groove. And the Steelers' offensive line coach left for a college job with two games remaining in the season. Roethlisberger, though, has been careful not to sound off. As one source put it, this is like Kobe Bryant in his final season with the Lakers: He doesn't have an elite supporting cast but wants to enjoy the ride and show class at the end. And if the 7-7-1 Steelers can pick up a few wins on the way to the playoffs, that's a bonus.

• A few injury updates: There's still a chance that Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) gets back before the regular season ends. His hamstring issue is not considered severe. However, now he's on the COVID-19 list, so all bets are off. ... Raiders tight end Darren Waller had hoped to return much earlier from his IT band strain, but the problem is the injury has caused discomfort/pain in the region between his knee and hip. There's more optimism this week about a return than in previous weeks. ... The initial belief is that Panthers cornerback Stephon Gilmore suffered a groin strain on Sunday against the Bucs, but the extent is still unclear at this point and more evaluations will be done. I would call his game status for Week 17 up in the air at this point.

Graziano:

• There are mixed results so far on the rules adjustment from a couple of weeks ago to try to get fully vaccinated, asymptomatic players who test positive back from the COVID-19 list sooner. Some have made it back in the shorter timeframe while others have struggled. A general manager from a team that has been affected by this issue explained to me last week that it's not as simple as it sounds. One of the ways to "test back in" is to take tests that show a "cycle threshold" of 35 or greater, which the league and its medical experts have agreed is the point at which the individual in question is unlikely to transmit the virus. This GM told me he has had several players whose tests got progressively closer to that 35 mark only to fall just short of it and level off. He also told me he has had players who, after testing positive and before getting to 35, developed a mild case of myocarditis and had to be cleared by team doctors and cardiologists before returning, which obviously (and necessarily) complicates the process. Now, the NFL and NFLPA reached an agreement on Tuesday to set isolation time at five days for all players who test positive for COVID-19.

• There was an expectation among the people I talked to that the Jaguars would move quickly to begin interviewing candidates for their open head coach position. As of Tuesday morning, teams with openings (Jags and Raiders at this writing) were permitted to conduct Zoom interviews with assistant coaches on other teams. Sure enough, the Jaguars reached out Tuesday to request Zoom interviews with Buccaneers coordinators Byron Leftwich and Todd Bowles, as well as Cowboys coordinators Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn. They also have an interview set up this week (either Wednesday or Thursday) with former Eagles coach Doug Pederson. Like former Lions and Colts coach Jim Caldwell, who also is expected to generate interest in Jacksonville, Pederson is not currently with a team and can meet with the Jags in person without anyone's permission.

• One thing to watch with this two-week interview window: Teams don't have to grant permission for other teams to interview their assistants. And there's an expectation among many in these circles that teams -- especially playoff-bound teams -- will deny some of these early requests because they'd rather their assistant coaches focus on preparation for the crucial games in the days and weeks ahead. Teams also are dealing with incredibly high numbers of COVID-19 cases right now, and these requests could be seen as an unnecessary distraction.