For at least the fourth time this year, the best player on an NFL team is unhappy and either wants out or wants drastic change.
The first three were elite quarterbacks -- Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson -- all making 30-plus million dollars per year. The latest is Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, who makes far less than that and hopes a new team can change the dynamic.
Howard's detailed statement on Instagram on Tuesday night highlighting his trade request and unhappiness with his five-year, $75 million deal that's short on guarantees sent shock waves through the NFL. But it was hardly a surprise, despite his on-time arrival at training camp this week. Howard's frustration has bubbled under the surface for months, and coming off a fantastic 10-interception 2020 season, he is flexing business muscle.
Could a trade happen? Where could Howard fit in a deal, and what would it take for a team to land him? Let's take a detailed look at Howard's situation in Miami, what he might bring on the trade market and, most importantly, five teams that could try to get the corner in a deal.
Jump to a section:
Why he wants a trade | Potential return
A new contract? | Best team fits in a deal
Why Howard wants out
The Dolphins' apparent refusal to get creative with his contract has led to broken trust with Howard. He and his new agent, David Canter, requested that Miami guarantee his 2021 salary or accelerate money from future years into this year, according to a source. They believe they provided dozens of scenarios that would have improved Howard's contract without compromising the team's financial outlook. The Dolphins currently have $8.6 million in cap space, and boosting Howard's pay wouldn't have occupied all of that, especially if they added voidable years to the back end.
The team made one last push before Howard's statement hit the internet around 8 p.m. Tuesday. By going public, he took control of the narrative and applied pressure on Miami, which has three options:
Wait this out, betting the player wouldn't turn down $12 million this year
See it his way and rework his deal
Trade him in the coming weeks
A source says it's too early to determine whether Howard would sit out practices or games in the future if nothing is resolved, but the cornerback is unhappy enough that the possibilities seem endless. Miami must decide whether it wants that headache, and if not, it might have a ticking clock on a trade, which could affect leverage.
The Dolphins seem receptive to at least continuing to talk with Howard. Coach Brian Flores told WQAM-AM Miami on Wednesday that "there's a way" to work things out with Howard: to "continue to have discussions with him, his representation, and keep the lines of communication open, continue having dialogue and, hopefully, work something out."
But Howard wants a bone that Miami hasn't been willing to throw. Even a sweetener of a few million dollars long ago might have satisfied the player.
"I've played on that deal for two seasons and didn't complain, but everyone knows I've significantly outperformed that deal," Howard said in his statement. "I'm one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and the tape backs that up."
From Miami's perspective, reworking a player's deal with four years remaining sets a precedent few teams want. The Dolphins can point to the contract Howard signed in summer 2019 that, at the time, made him the highest-paid corner in the NFL.
Furthermore, the Dolphins feel as if they stood by Howard through injuries and legal issues. Howard has had multiple knee surgeries, the latest in December 2019. He was arrested in late 2019 after an alleged domestic violence incident with his fiancée, but the charges were dropped shortly thereafter. And his name appeared on a police report concerning the alleged shooting of the house of Damarius Bilbo, his former agent. The investigation was reportedly closed, and Howard's attorney said the player had no part in the incident.
Now, the Dolphins have built their defense, at least in part, around Howard's ability to disrupt opposing passing games. But he believes the Dolphins essentially pulled a fast one on him with a deal that was considered obsolete within a few months. At $12.1 million in non-guaranteed money for 2021, Howard ranks 12th in cornerback cash value this season, according to ESPN's Roster Management System.
Players notice how their teams spend cash, so it wasn't lost on Howard how Miami paid guard Ereck Flowers $6 million to essentially go away. (Washington is on the hook for $3 million of Flowers' $9 million salary as part of a trade; Miami absorbed the rest.) Or how recently extended linebacker Jerome Baker has a better guarantee structure than he does. Baker earned $20 million at signing and $28.4 million in guarantees on a three-year, $37.5 million extension, good for percentages of 53.3% and 75.7% of the total deal. Howard got $27.2 million at signing and $39.3 million in guarantees, good for 36.2% and 52.4%. Shorter-term deals with less money are easier to guarantee, but such disparities only fuel a player coming off a historic year feeling vastly underpaid.
And then there's the Byron Jones deal. Miami might not be in this situation with Howard if it hadn't signed Jones to a five-year, $82.5 million with $54.4 million in guarantees last offseason. Asking Howard to cover the top receiver every week while Jones makes more than he does just never sat well.
Howard's trade value
On the surface, Howard's value as a player is immense because he has what teams covet: the ability to play press-man coverage and get the ball.
His 22 interceptions since entering the league in 2016 ranks second behind Baltimore's Marcus Peters (23). Howard's 55 passes defended during that span embodies consistency. Per NFL Next Gen Stats data, only Cleveland's Denzel Ward (24.3%) posted a better ball hawk rate -- the percentage of targets in which the nearest defender made a play on the ball -- among defensive backs last season than Howard's 22.7% (minimum 50 targets as the nearest defender).
That production, most evaluators say, should be worth a premium pick -- with a first-rounder not being out of the question.
"Instincts ... plays a lot closer on you than most. And if people test him and force him, he knows how to get his head around and finish the catch," said a high-ranking NFL official. "He breaks so well that he cuts the route. Ball judgment, he has it. Most don't."
Howard can fit into any defense as a scheme-transcendent weapon. He can play a mix of man and zone, and he can play in the slot. He can take away a No. 1 receiver. The list of players with that range fits on a paper football triangle. Howard instantly changes a defense once he walks through team headquarters. His 87.3 Pro Football Focus grade last season ranked second in the NFL behind Green Bay's Jaire Alexander (90.5).
The timing isn't ideal, with teams just beginning training camp and already strapped after pandemic-fueled salary-cap hits. Rosters are just starting to take shape.
Previous deals with premier defensive backs had more urgency -- and perhaps more draft-position clout -- attached. The Jets shipped safety Jamal Adams to Seattle on July 25, 2020, after months of plotting due to broken contract talks. The Rams acquired Jalen Ramsey at the 2019 trade deadline, which typically spurs more action. Teams know what they are and what they need at that point, and Ramsey was Los Angeles' missing piece.
Both Adams and Ramsey were top-six picks on rookie contracts under the age of 25 at the time of the deals. Howard, however, is 28 and less than two years removed from the knee issues, though that didn't affect last season's play in the slightest. That isn't to say he isn't worth a lot via trade. But those two players garnered two first-round picks because they had age, draft clout and money on their sides.
The last time Miami traded this caliber of player, it acquired two first-round picks for left tackle Laremy Tunsil. There were whispers this offseason that the Dolphins would need a Tunsil-like package to deal Howard.
Getting a similar return might be unreasonable now, despite his on-ball prowess. A deal could come together fairly quickly if that's what Miami wants. Teams trade more frequently than ever now. For the right price, a deal is a phone call away. Atlanta needed a few weeks to deal wide receiver Julio Jones this offseason, but the interest came swiftly. Interested teams will likely vet Howard's past off-field issues, but personnel people I've talked to don't seem overly concerned.
One NFC exec estimates getting Howard is worth a high-Day 2 pick or a package of Day 2 and 3 picks, all things considered. But that might be conservative. An AFC exec believed getting Howard might be worth a first-rounder, given his top-shelf ability.
But those execs also admit they aren't sure exactly what Howard wants out of a new deal, which looms large in talks.
Why money can actually help facilitate a deal
Howard doesn't need his new deal ripped up completely. He and his agent know that's not feasible with four years left on the current contract.
One concern, in fact, is what to do with the final three years and roughly $36 million for 2022-24. Howard might be amenable to playing out this year at $12 million and then repackaging the final three years with stronger guarantees and hopefully more money.
As the thinking goes, even if a team felt generous and added $14 million to those years, he's still a bargain at $50 million over three years, or $16.7 million per season. The Eagles gave Darius Slay a similar deal at age 29, and Howard is considered a better corner by league evaluators.
Some teams might gladly strengthen the guarantee if it means bargain payouts over the next few years. Howard's deal carries a modest $16.3 million in dead money this year, so there's flexibility to rework the deal sooner than later. In 2022, the dead cap drops to $2.8 million.
And the cornerback market shouldn't combust over the next six to eight months. It has already exploded. Ramsey, Marlon Humphrey and Tre'Davious White -- all widely considered top-five cornerbacks -- did their deals over the past 12 months. Marshon Lattimore, a 2022 free agent, wants a new deal with New Orleans. He's a threat. Green Bay's Alexander and Cleveland's Ward have two years left on their rookie deals, and their teams might wait until next summer. The Patriots are talking with Stephon Gilmore, whose age (turns 31 in September) could keep him from the top of the market.
Where Howard could fit in a trade
Houston Texans
Surprisingly, Houston comes up most in conversations with league people. The Texans need everything, and the Nick Caserio-Brian Flores connection from New England already resulted in an offseason trade, swapping linebackers Shaq Lawson and Benardrick McKinney back in March.
"Xavien would be [good] to have as part of a trade for Deshaun Watson," an NFC exec said.
Adding Watson requires more than a player-for-player swap, but perhaps not that much more. One league exec said Watson's sexual assault lawsuits dampen his value unless the cases are resolved and any suspension from the league is clear-cut. Plus, some people inside the league are still skeptical that Miami wants to move on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa -- and give up serious draft capital just to do it.
Houston's roster looks galaxies away from contending, so perhaps adding blue-chip players doesn't coalesce with Caserio's plan to stock the roster with middle-tier talent on short-term deals. The Texans have around $9.2 million in cap space.
Arizona Cardinals
That Arizona isn't calling the Dolphins daily is surprising. The Cardinals' offseason moves say they are all-in, but they still need help at cornerback opposite Byron Murphy Jr. and Malcolm Butler. Howard would be a natural replacement for Patrick Peterson as the traditional press-man corner in the Valley. And defensive coordinator Vance Joseph coached Howard as a rookie in 2016.
Since edge rusher Chandler Jones requested a trade from Arizona this offseason, maybe Flores would embrace reuniting with his linebacker from their New England days. The Cardinals have $11.3 million in cap space.
Dallas Cowboys
Rumors persisted in league circles that Dallas looked into a Howard deal at some point this offseason, but aside from that ... this is a Dallas move. All splash, and it solves a big need. The Cowboys' pass rush needs more production, and what better way to help than with a true shutdown corner to buy rushers time?
Dallas doesn't have a ton of cash -- $5.4 million in cap space as of this week -- but a little roster maneuvering could solve that in a hurry. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn would gladly welcome Howard's ball disruption. He hasn't had a corner that good since Richard Sherman.
Los Angeles Chargers
New coach Brandon Staley brings new ideas, and he has seen firsthand what a shutdown corner can do. Staley used Ramsey all over to charge the Rams' top-ranked total defense while defensive coordinator.
The Chargers typically used a zone-based scheme with Casey Hayward Jr. anchoring the group. Howard's presence fosters duplicity. And Howard and a healthy Derwin James Jr. would give Patrick Mahomes problems in the AFC West.
Don't be surprised if the Chargers hunt for defensive talent leading up to Week 1. They have $19.7 million in cap space.
New York Jets
Yeah, trading inside the AFC East might be a nonstarter, but how many teams are better equipped to make a deal happen than the Jets?
They've stockpiled draft picks and still have $22.1 million in cap space. They need the corner help. New coach Robert Saleh wants an attacking defense that won't be afraid to mix it up, and Howard's man coverage ability could be tempting.
The Jets have four picks in the top two rounds of the 2022 draft and are probably sick of playing against Howard, who has three career interceptions against them.