We have reached the point in the 2020 NFL season in which certain teams' fan bases -- you know who you are -- already are thinking about the 2021 draft. Next year's draft appears to have some interesting quarterback prospects at the top. If your favorite team is one that is out of contention by Week 10, there's a decent chance you don't feel great about its quarterback situation. That means you might be trying to figure out whether you can get Clemson's Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State's Justin Fields.
In light of this, we thought we'd bring back an old favorite, but with a twist.
We have periodically conducted a leaguewide exercise called the Quarterback Confidence Index -- a ranking of NFL teams by their level of confidence, or lack thereof, in their current quarterback situations. It's not a ranking of quarterbacks; it's an assessment of each team's confidence in where they stand at the position, short term and long term.
This time, we're going to go in reverse, with a nod to the chance that QB-needy teams could be positioning to select a quarterback early in April's draft. Using ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to project the draft order, we hereby present a ranking of NFL teams in order of how likely they are to draft a quarterback early in 2021. Let's start with the most likely teams and move on to, well, a bunch of teams that won't even be considering it:
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Current starter: Gardner Minshew (injured)
Projected first-round picks: Nos. 2 and 23
Rookie Day 3 pick Jake Luton is starting in place of Minshew right now, and if Luton keeps playing well it's not out of the realm of possibility that he just takes Minshew's job for the rest of the season. The Jaguars have two first-round picks as a result of their 2019 trade that sent Jalen Ramsey to the Rams, so they are in a position where they could potentially package some things together and move up to the top spot even if their record doesn't land them there.
Jacksonville has essentially no resources committed to the position at this point. Minshew and Luton are both sixth-round picks with non-guaranteed contracts that pay them under $1 million a year. (Luton actually is scheduled to earn $1.01 million in 2023.) Backup Mike Glennon isn't signed beyond this season. The dead money from Nick Foles' contact is off the books after this year. The decks are clear for the Jaguars to do whatever they want at quarterback in the 2021 offseason, including draft a long-term solution.
2. Chicago Bears
Current starter: Nick Foles
Projected first-round pick: No. 15
If history has taught us anything, it's that the Bears have no idea what they're doing at the quarterback position. Ahead of the fourth year of the rookie contract of Mitchell Trubisky -- a player they traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 to select in the 2017 draft with Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson still on the board -- they decided to hedge and trade for the Nick Foles contract the Jaguars already regretted after one year. Then they gave Trubisky the job coming out of training camp only to bench him for Foles after their 3-0 start.
Chicago is now 5-4 and no closer to knowing its quarterback of the future than it was a year ago. The Bears know it's not Foles, who'll be 32 next year, but they have to pay him $8 million in 2021 and another $1 million in 2022 (unless there's another team out there willing to trade for him). And it's not Trubisky, who'll be a free agent this offseason after the team declined his fifth-year option, is injured and already seemed to have no chance of getting the job back no matter how sadly mediocre Foles and the offense look.
If the Bears are in position to draft a quarterback early, you have to think they will. Problem is, at this point their record isn't likely to be bad enough to land them one of the very top picks. They might have to find someone in the middle of the first round. You know, the way the Chiefs and Texans did in 2017.
3. Washington Football Team
Current starter: Alex Smith
Projected first-round pick: No. 6
Yes, Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019. But the new coaching staff doesn't seem to have much use for him, having already benched him for Kyle Allen and saying they'll go with Smith now that Allen injured his ankle. The guaranteed money on Smith's contract vanishes after this year, and Haskins has just two years and a total of about $8.5 million (fully guaranteed) left on his, which means Washington could potentially trade him or, if need be, carry him as a backup. Allen is on a one-year deal.
Washington could absolutely draft a quarterback early in the first round if it ends up there. Other than the team owner, the folks who were running things in Washington when they picked Haskins 19 months ago are all gone. Coach Ron Rivera and the new regime will be looking to find their own guy.
4. New England Patriots
Current starter: Cam Newton
Projected first-round pick: No. 13
Newton is playing on a one-year deal. Jarrett Stidham is making non-guaranteed peanuts on a fourth-round rookie contract. Veteran Brian Hoyer isn't standing in anyone's way. The Patriots haven't picked in the top 10 since 2008, but they have a chance to end up there this season. If they do, Bill Belichick will have to consider the draft as a means of figuring out the quarterback position for 2021 and beyond.
That's not to say it would be the only potential avenue. Newton could get into the mix with a strong second half, and there will be free-agent and trade options. But we spent all summer trying to figure out who'd be the long-term replacement for Tom Brady, and it turns out the answer might have been some college kid.
5. New York Jets
Current starter: Sam Darnold (injured)
Projected first-round picks: Nos. 1 and 27
By this point, you might well be yelling at me and calling me insulting names for not having the Jets higher on this list. At 0-9, they are the clear front-runners to land the No. 1 overall pick, and it's not as if Darnold, the No. 3 pick in 2018, has shown enough to keep them from taking Trevor Lawrence if they end up there. Joe Flacco, who started Monday night and is a free agent after the season, obviously isn't the answer. The Jets are likely to have a new coach, and they have the extra first-round pick that they got from Seattle in the Jamal Adams trade. There could be a housecleaning here
Sure, it might have been a no-brainer to put the Jets at the top of this list. So why did they end up at No. 5? Just the slightest of Darnold-related hedges. If Darnold comes back healthy and has a strong second half and/or if the next Jets coach is one who likes his talent and wants to try to work with him and if they don't end up in the No. 1 spot or able to package their two first-round picks to get it ... well, the Jets aren't exactly the kind of roster that doesn't need help elsewhere.
Don't get too upset. If they end up at No. 1, odds are very good they take Lawrence. But Darnold is still 23 years old, his signing bonus is paid, and it's not impossible to imagine a set of circumstances in which they stick with him in 2021. The teams ahead of the Jets on this list have barer cupboards.
6. Indianapolis Colts
Current starter: Philip Rivers
Projected first-round pick: No. 20
Jacob Eason, a fourth-round pick in April, is the only Colts quarterback under contract for 2021. Rivers is on a one-year deal, and Jacoby Brissett is in the final year of his contract. Indianapolis could bring either or both of those guys back, but at this point it has an opening at the position.
Should the Colts be in a position to draft a quarterback they like in the first round, they have to at least think about it.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current starter: Ben Roethlisberger
Projected first-round pick: No. 30
Roethlisberger restructured his contract in March, raising his 2021 salary cap number to $41.25 million. He turns 39 in next year. That math doesn't add up. The Steelers will either have to cut him or extend his contract again, and if he or the team decides not to keep this thing going after 2020, Pittsburgh will need to replace him. Mason Rudolph, a third-round pick in 2018, has one year left on his contract and didn't distinguish himself last season when Roethlisberger was hurt. Third-stringer Joshua Dobbs is not signed beyond this year.
The Steelers also are 8-0 and could make a deep playoff run that would see them picking in the back end of Round 1. They would need to find a Roethlisberger replacement there or in a later round, or give Rudolph a shot in a contract year. But if a guy they like falls down near where they're picking -- a la Jordan Love and the Packers in 2020 -- they would have to consider it.
8. New Orleans Saints
Current starter: Drew Brees
Projected first-round pick: No. 28
This one is complicated. Brees is 41. The contract he signed this offseason was technically a two-year deal, but the 2021 part is not guaranteed. And while we don't know what Brees' plan is, it certainly feels as if this could be the final year of his historically brilliant career. The Saints will have significant salary-cap hits for Brees in 2021, 2022 and possibly even 2023 no matter what he does, so they'll be on the lookout for cheap solutions, which is what the draft is for.
However, they also signed Taysom Hill this offseason to a contract that guarantees him about $7 million in 2021, and coach Sean Payton was telling people around the league last winter that he was ready to install Hill as his starter and design an offense around him if Brees had decided not to return for 2020. Now, Hill is already 30 years old, so even if Payton did want to make him the starter there's no reason the Saints wouldn't hedge their bets by looking for a potential Brees replacement in an early round.
New Orleans also has former Bucs starter Jameis Winston on the roster as a backup. He isn't signed for next year, but depending on what he shows this season, he could be the way the Saints go in 2021. There are lots of possibilities here, but the uncertainty leads you to believe they are one of the teams to watch for quarterbacks in the 2021 draft.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current starter: Tom Brady
Projected first-round pick: No. 26
The Bucs and all three teams ahead of them on this list pretty much fall into the same category. They each have quarterbacks at the tail ends of their careers and/or contracts and need to be thinking about life beyond their current starter. The reason the Bucs are at the back end of this group is that Brady has $10 million in guaranteed roster bonus money due next year in addition to a $15 million salary. He's 43 but has said he wants to play until he's 45, so it seems as if he's planning to be in Tampa more than one year.
That doesn't preclude the Bucs from QB shopping in the draft, but if we're talking tiebreakers, it might make them less likely to prioritize it than the teams just ahead of them. Backups Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Griffin are signed only through this year, so if Brady did decide to hang it up, the Bucs would need to find a replacement ASAP. But since it seems like he's planning to be back in 2021, they might have a little bit more time.
10. Denver Broncos
Current starter: Drew Lock
Projected first-round pick: No. 11
This is the start of a new category: teams with young guys they're more likely than not to keep around but aren't all the way sure about them yet. The Broncos took Lock in the second round in 2019, and the current regime believes in him and is trying to make it work. He has been better the past couple of weeks -- he still ranks 30th in Total QBR (38.9) for the season -- but he has yet to have a truly sustained stretch strong enough to cement the team's long-term commitment.
Lock has two years left on his rookie deal and likely gets time to show more. But if things fall apart over the second half in Denver and the current regime is ... no longer the current regime ... the Broncos could have a high pick and a decision to make about whether Lock is the better long-term bet than a guy they could pick in the draft.
11. New York Giants
Current starter: Daniel Jones
Projected first-round pick: No. 4
The Giants have two wins, but both are against Washington, and Washington is not on their schedule the rest of the season. They could absolutely lose enough games to end up with the top pick, and FPI gives the Giants a 57.5% chance to pick in the top five. If they did, you'd have to think general manager Dave Gettleman, who drafted Jones No. 6 overall last year, would be replaced.
Coach Joe Judge and his staff are new this year, therefore they were not part of the decision-making process when Jones was drafted. Jones has turned the ball over 36 times in 22 career games. If the Giants finish with the top pick, it's likely they go into the offseason with questions about their young quarterback still unanswered. All that change, all those turnovers -- they'd have to at least think about it.
12. San Francisco 49ers
Current starter: Jimmy Garoppolo (injured)
Projected first-round pick: No. 16
Garoppolo is injured for the second time this year. He has missed 16 of a possible 41 regular-season games over the past three years, and because he's on injured reserve he has to miss the next two as well. There is no guaranteed money remaining on his contract after this season, and the dead-money salary cap hit for cutting him would be just $2.8 million.
Nick Mullens, who went undrafted in 2017, is starting in place of Garoppolo right now. The team likes him and he's scheduled to be a restricted free agent at the end of the year, so that makes it easier to keep him if he shows enough to warrant it. But third-string QB C.J. Beathard is an unrestricted free agent, and the combined status of the three quarterbacks on the roster leaves the Niners free to do whatever they want at the position.
13. Carolina Panthers
Current starter: Teddy Bridgewater
Projected first-round pick: No. 12
Signed this offseason to a three-year deal to replace Cam Newton, Bridgewater has played well for new Carolina coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Panthers identified Bridgewater as the type of quarterback they wanted for Brady's offense and he appears to be a good fit. At 3-6, they have been competitive, and FPI gives them only a 7.4% chance to have a top-five pick.
Make no mistake, though: Bridgewater's contract does not in any way preclude the Panthers from drafting a quarterback early in the 2021 draft. He is scheduled to earn a $17 million salary (plus another $1 million in potential workout and roster bonuses) in 2021, but only $10 million of that is guaranteed. And none of his 2022 money is guaranteed. If Carolina found a quarterback it wanted to draft, it could do it and keep Bridgewater around for a year at that price. I don't think it'll happen -- that's why the Panthers are here in the middle of the list and not higher up -- but they left themselves the ability to do it if they wanted to.
14. Cleveland Browns
Current starter: Baker Mayfield
Projected first-round pick: No. 17
Mayfield's situation is the same as Darnold's, except that he has had more success and his team isn't expected to change coaches this offseason (though it did last offseason, and the offseason before that, and in the middle of his rookie season). The Browns will have to make a decision in May about whether to pick up Mayfield's 2022 fifth-year option, and his performance the rest of the way will help them determine whether to do that. If they choose not to do that, they would have to be thinking about a long-term QB solution.
15. Dallas Cowboys
Current starter: Dak Prescott (injured)
Projected first-round pick: No. 3
There's enough push-pull on this one to land the Cowboys in the middle of this list. On one hand, Prescott, who is out for the year with an ankle injury, is not signed beyond this season, and neither is backup Andy Dalton. If the Cowboys end up with a very high pick, it would make sense for them to consider a quarterback in the draft.
On the other hand, team owner Jerry Jones said Monday that it's "crazy" to think the Cowboys will draft a quarterback high next year, and he has remained steadfast in his assertion that the team plans to sign Prescott and stick with him long term. The Cowboys can franchise Prescott for a second year in a row and keep him off the market, but it's hard to imagine them reaching a long-term deal with him before the draft given his health status and how hard that turned out to be this year.
If Prescott were signed long term, Dallas would be lower on this list. If ownership wasn't so adamant that Prescott is sticking around, Dallas would be higher on this list. As it stands, we'll leave the Cowboys here in the middle and see what happens.
16. Minnesota Vikings
Current starter: Kirk Cousins
Projected first-round pick: No. 14
Cousins' contract is an issue here, as you would expect. He's scheduled to earn a fully guaranteed $21 million in 2021, and his 2022 salary of $35 million becomes fully guaranteed in March 2021. Cutting him isn't an option. Trading him could be, if they can find someone (Kyle Shanahan?) to take on the contract, but even then Minnesota would have to carry $20 million in dead money on its 2021 cap for him.
Odds are, the Vikings are starting Cousins for the next two seasons at least. But if things end badly for them this season and they decide to try to ship out Cousins, they'd be looking at a potential replacement in the draft.
17. Detroit Lions
Current starter: Matthew Stafford
Projected first-round pick: No. 9
Stafford technically has two more years left on his contract after this one, but it's no sure thing that he sticks around in Detroit. The Lions have the option to void the remainder of the contract at any time before the start of the 2021 league year, at which time he has a $10 million roster bonus due. They also have the right to void the contract any time between the fifth day of the 2021 league year and the end of the 2021 league year (which falls in March 2022). But if they wait until that window, they'd already owe him the $10 million for 2021, in addition to his non-guaranteed $9.5 million salary.
Stafford doesn't cost a lot for a starting quarterback, but the Lions do have the ability to easily move on if they so choose. There could very well be a new coach and general manager making that decision and the affordability of his contract could make him an attractive trade option. The Lions are down this low because the most likely outcome is that they keep Stafford. But they have to be thinking about the future at some point soon, even if Stafford is only 32.
18. Atlanta Falcons
Current starter: Matt Ryan
Projected first-round pick: No. 8
The Falcons already fired their coach and general manager, so we know they're in a transition phase. The problem is that Ryan's contract will be difficult to manage. Cutting him would cost them nearly $50 million in dead money. Trading him would cost them nearly $45 million in dead money. If they find a prospect they like in the draft, they could decide to eat that cost in a rebuilding year and start spending on players again in 2022 when the cap is expected to go up.
Atlanta is thinking about its future, but Ryan's deal probably prevents the team from finding his long-term replacement in next year's draft.
19. Las Vegas Raiders
Current starter: Derek Carr
Projected first-round pick: No. 21
Everybody always says Jon Gruden is fickle about quarterbacks and his history backs that up. But since he began his second stint with the Raiders, he has publicly backed Carr at every turn, and we're getting to the point in which it might be worth believing him. The Raiders are 5-3 with victories over the Saints and Chiefs and have a shot not only to reach the playoffs but to make some noise in them.
Carr's deal has two more non-guaranteed years left after 2020, and his scheduled salary is just under $20 million in each of them. He's a bargain if he's playing well, and right now he is. The Raiders could move on if they wanted to, and they might. But the reason they're this much farther down the list than, say, the 49ers is that there appears to be reason to think the Raiders are happy with Carr.
20. Los Angeles Rams
Current starter: Jared Goff
Projected first-round pick: No pick
The Rams couldn't do it if they wanted to. They sent their first-round pick to Jacksonville for Jalen Ramsey, and Goff's contract locks him in there for at least two more years. They're paying him $53 million over the next two seasons and $43 million of that is fully guaranteed, including a $15.5 million roster bonus in 2022.
21. Philadelphia Eagles
Current starter: Carson Wentz
Projected first-round pick: No. 19
Wentz's deal is just about the same as Goff's and the Eagles are almost certain to have him through at least 2022. Plus, they spent a second-round pick on Jalen Hurts earlier this year. It would be shocking to see them take a quarterback early in the 2021 draft.
22. Tennessee Titans
Current starter: Ryan Tannehill
Projected first-round pick: No. 24
The Titans signed Tannehill this past offseason to a four-year, $118 million contract that included $62 million fully guaranteed at signing and $91 million effectively guaranteed in the first three years of the deal. They aren't taking a quarterback.
23. Seattle Seahawks
Current starter: Russell Wilson
Projected first-round pick: No pick
Wilson is signed through 2023 and playing at his usual MVP-caliber level. The only way the Seahawks would look quarterback early is if they wanted to do what the Packers did and plan for a couple of years down the road. But even if they wanted to, they don't have the pick. They traded it to the Jets for Jamal Adams.
24. Houston Texans
Current starter: Deshaun Watson
Projected first-round pick: No pick
Yeah, we've reached the part of this list where there's basically no chance anyone below this line is thinking quarterback in next year's draft and we're only ranking them against each other for fun. The Texans just extended Watson's deal through 2025 and guaranteed him $73 million at signing. They have their guy. Plus, no first-round pick. Miami has that one from the Laremy Tunsil deal.
25. Green Bay Packers
Current starter: Aaron Rodgers
Projected first-round pick: No. 31
I guess you never say never after what they did last year. But for the Packers to be thinking first-round quarterback for the second year in a row after the season Rodgers is having would be pretty shocking. They'd have to have a guy they absolutely adore and be convinced they were wrong about 2020 first-rounder Jordan Love. No chance.
26. Buffalo Bills
Current starter: Josh Allen
Projected first-round pick: No. 25
Allen can still look a little wobbly at times, but on the whole the first-place Bills believe they have their guy. He is eligible for an extension after this season and at the very least his 2023 option is a no-brainer based on the way his past two seasons have gone.
27. Baltimore Ravens
Current starter: Lamar Jackson
Projected first-round pick: No. 29
Ditto everything we just said about Allen, except Jackson has won an MVP award, so we put the Ravens one spot lower.
28. Miami Dolphins
Current starter: Tua Tagovailoa
Projected first-round pick: Nos. 10 and 18
The Dolphins dreamed of Tagovailoa for a year, drafted him fifth overall and just installed him as the starter two weeks ago. Even with two first-round picks, one of which could be very high if Houston keeps losing, they aren't thinking about a quarterback.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Current starter: Joe Burrow
Projected first-round pick: No. 7
Not only did the Bengals take Burrow first overall in this year's draft, he's leading the league in pass attempts in his rookie season. They have a great deal of trust and belief in the guy they just got.
30. Los Angeles Chargers
Current starter: Justin Herbert
Projected first-round pick: No. 5
Splitting hairs here, but I'm putting Herbert's team the lowest of the three with the rookie first-round quarterbacks because he's playing the best of the three. (Even though they're all playing great.)
31. Arizona Cardinals
Current starter: Kyler Murray
Projected first-round pick: No. 22
They blew up their whole plan after one year to draft this guy No. 1 overall and hire a coach specifically for him. It's working. Murray might be the most exciting player in the league right now outside of the next guy.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Current starter: Patrick Mahomes
Projected first-round pick: No. 32
He has an MVP award and a Super Bowl title and is only in his third year as a starter. His current contract runs longer than the new collective bargaining agreement. He's a part owner of the Major League Baseball team in town. No one's more locked into their team than Mahomes. Kansas City has no need to even scout the QBs in the draft.