Week 9 of the strange journey that has been the 2020 NFL season features several intriguing matchups that will give a handful of teams a chance to prove they have what it takes to make some noise in the postseason.
Certainly the winner of Sunday's matchup between the Ravens (5-2) and Colts (5-2) in Indianapolis will make a statement. The Bills (6-2), after beating the Patriots last week, also can take another big step forward if they can hand the Seahawks (6-1) just their second loss.
And it's not just about the AFC. We'll learn more about NFC contenders Green Bay (5-2) and San Francisco (4-4), as well as New Orleans (5-2) and Tampa Bay (6-2) after they clash on Thursday night and Sunday night, respectively.
We asked our experts for their thoughts on the biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and sleepers, and one of their biggest preseason prediction regrets.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 9?
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: 49ers (+4.0) over Packers. The 49ers have been decimated by injuries this season, but consider this: Their offense is averaging 3.3 touchdowns per game and their defense is allowing 2.1 touchdowns per game. Believe it or not, both of those numbers are better than their 2019 rates. The offense has still been able to move the ball when Nick Mullens has been on the field, and the run-first 49ers will benefit this week from a Packers defense that has been crushed by running backs this season. The Niners have a shot to pull this one off at home.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Bills (+2.5) over Seahawks. Finally taking down the Patriots will inject more confidence in the Bills, who face the league's lowest-ranked passing game this week. Buffalo's defense isn't as dominant as last year's but is well-suited for a Seahawks matchup because it doesn't allow big plays very often. Tre'Davious White will be DK Metcalf's toughest matchup of the season thus far.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Dolphins (+4.5) over Cardinals. I do not think Miami's defensive domination of the Rams was a fluke, and I believe Miami is a legit contender in the AFC East, especially because of how tough Buffalo's upcoming schedule is. An upset win here would bolster the case to take the Dolphins seriously.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Raiders (+2.0) over Chargers. The Raiders are sneakily battle-tested. They've faced the hardest strength of schedule in the league, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, and still have managed a 4-3 record. Justin Herbert has been legitimately impressive this season, but you know who quietly also has impressed for a second consecutive year? Derek Carr, who ranks eighth in QBR.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Colts (+3.0) over Ravens. The Ravens have scored points in literally all but one quarter this season, but it's an offense that feels far from in complete sync. The Colts belong in the conversation for the most impressive defense in the NFL this season and have enough speed at linebacker to at least semi-contain Lamar Jackson as a runner. Indy is tough.
We're almost to the halfway point of the season, so let's look back: What's one preseason prediction you got wrong?
Clay: The Cowboys' defense would be good. Yikes. It seemed to make sense on paper. DeMarcus Lawrence and Jaylon Smith were stars. Tyrone Crawford and Leighton Vander Esch were healthy. Gerald McCoy, Dontari Poe, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Aldon Smith were added. A young cornerback room would break out. Instead of it all coming together, the unit was crushed with injuries and several players regressed, leaving Dallas with one of the worst defensive showings of the first half of the season.
Fowler: Matthew Stafford would win the MVP. Stafford's torrid eight-game pace last year swayed me too much. Stafford is having a fine year. He's on pace for nearly 30 touchdowns and 4,400 yards in 2020. But that won't be nearly enough for this season's inflated passing numbers league-wide, and the Lions won't be in the playoff mix without a major midseason push.
Graziano: That the Cowboys would be good. They weren't even good when they were healthy. I just couldn't imagine the Eagles getting it together enough to overcome their injuries, but I never imagined the rest of the division wouldn't put up a fight. Philly is poised to be the first repeat NFC East champion since 2003 and '04.
Walder: The Cowboys would win the Super Bowl ... eek. Even if Dak Prescott were healthy, this looks like a pretty bad prediction now. While Prescott is a great quarterback and the receiving corps is very good, I pretty clearly overestimated the rest of this team. Dallas' strengths -- even with Prescott -- would not have been enough to make up for this team's defense.
Yates: That the Vikings would challenge for the NFC North. Week 8 served as a reminder that this team has plenty of talent and really should be much more of a factor in the NFC North race, but countless defensive lapses and far too many Kirk Cousins turnovers have led to a forgettable start. It's probably too late for Minnesota to make noise in this division.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 9.
Clay: JaMycal Hasty, RB, 49ers. Did you see what Dalvin Cook did to the Packers on Sunday? Well, even before Cook torched them for 226 yards and four touchdowns on 32 touches, the Packers had already been allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Especially after Tevin Coleman went down with another injury Sunday, Hasty figures to handle most of the carries against the Packers this week. He's on the RB2 radar.
Fowler: Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals. With Kenyan Drake probably out, it's time to play the running back who has played like a starter all year. Edmonds catches nearly four passes per game in a reserve role and has three rushes of 20-plus yards on just 29 attempts. A bonus: Running back crews average 20.9 points per game against the Dolphins.
Graziano: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens. He just ran for 113 yards on 15 carries against the Steelers. Mark Ingram II's injury could be the best thing that happened to the Ravens' offense if it reveals to the coaching staff that the run game should rely on the dynamic Dobbins going forward.
Walder: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos. In general, starting a passing-game player against the Falcons is a good idea, but this is really about opportunity. Jeudy ranks 17th among wide receivers in expected completed air yards per game -- based on NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion model -- so volume is also working in his favor.
Yates: Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots. As we saw in Week 8, Meyers has a chance to step into a far busier role for the Patriots in Julian Edelman's absence, as he saw 10 targets. Now he faces a poor Jets secondary on Monday Night Football (on ESPN, of course) and should be busy enough to slide into your flex spot
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Clay: DJ Chark Jr., WR, Jaguars. Chark is on a cold streak, having totaled 11 catches for 87 yards and zero touchdowns on 25 targets during his past three games. That cold streak includes a Week 5 game against Houston in which he was held to three receptions for 16 yards on four targets. Chark was shadowed by Bradley Roby in that game and he can expect the same treatment this week. Especially with sixth-round rookie Jake Luton under center, Chark is looking at a fourth consecutive dud.
Fowler: A.J. Brown, WR, Titans. The Bears are stout against the pass, which could force the Titans to amplify the Derrick Henry game plan. Brown has five touchdowns in his past four games, and Chicago will be determined to stop him in the red zone.
Graziano: Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II, RBs, Buccaneers. The Saints are tough on fantasy RBs, and it's already difficult figuring out which one of these guys you should play from week to week. Easy for me to stay away from both.
Walder: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. The Cowboys are going to be a heavy underdog, so the game script could easily run away from Elliott. And secondly, the Steelers are awfully stout defensively and are ranked fifth in run stop win rate. That's a rough combination, matchup-wise.
Yates: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team. For those who haven't yet made Mike Clay's weekly WR/CB matchup column a staple of your football content, do so now. And Clay will attest that one of the better cover corners in the league is James Bradberry. Just a few weeks ago, McLaurin was held to just three catches. I expect more Bradberry coverage of McLaurin this Sunday.
Take out your crystal ball and make a prediction: Who will be the Jaguars' quarterback in Week 1 of the 2021 season?
Clay: Aaron Rodg ... just kidding. I'm going to give the boring answer and say Gardner Minshew II, though this time around, he'll be operating as a clear bridge quarterback to whichever rookie the team selects with its first-round pick in the 2021 draft. Expect that quarterback to be under center by Week 4.
Fowler: Trevor Lawrence. Still thinking the Jets might stumble into a win or two, paving the way for Jacksonville to slide into that No. 1 overall pick. Assuming Doug Marrone doesn't survive this season, the Jaguars will set a clean table for the next head coach with impressive draft capital due to trades of veterans and a young franchise quarterback. This will attract many top candidates.
Graziano: Jimmy Garoppolo. I say the Niners move on after this season, and the Jags bring in one of the bigger-name guys on the free-agent market not named Dak Prescott.
Walder: Justin Fields. As of Monday the Jaguars have a 26% chance to land the No. 2 spot in the draft, per the FPI. That's their most likely landing spot and they also are the most likely team to earn that pick. Given the expected drop-off between Lawrence/Fields and all other QBs in the draft, it's pretty crucial for the long-term health of this franchise to lose correctly from here on out.
Yates: Justin Fields. The Ohio State quarterback might be viewed as the "consolation prize" in this year's draft behind Trevor Lawrence, but whoever takes him will be doing anything but settling. In his two-plus seasons in college, Fields has career numbers of 4,195 passing yards, 51 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns. He's phenomenal.